BABA Stock: A Detailed Analysis using Elliott Wave Theory RulesHello Friends,
Welcome to RK_Chaarts,
Let's analyze Ali Baba Group Holdings Limited, also known as BABA, listed on the NYSE. We'll be using the Elliott Waves theory.
Friends, as we can clearly see, after hitting a low of around $95.75 on 9th April 2025, it started an impulse wave. Within this wave, we've completed intermediate degree blue bracketed (1), (2), (3), (4), (5), and primary degree ((1)) in Black. Currently, we're completing primary degree ((2)), with a low around $111.
If it breaks the level of $111, we'll assume we're still in primary degree ((2)), as marked in scenario 2 on the chart. This means wave ((2)) is unfolding, and wave ((3)) might start after wave ((2)) is complete.
If it doesn't break the $111 level, it's likely that wave ((2)) has completed, and we've started a subdivision of wave ((3)) or its further subdivisions. If it moves further up, following scenario 1 (the black line on the chart), this is a possibility.
According to Elliott Wave theory, wave ((2)) cannot retrace more than 100% of wave ((1)). So, our main invalidation level for this count is $95.75. Yes, BABA is turning up against the 95.75 low, and in the near term, we expect the stock to trade higher.
Somewhere, this stock might move towards $150 or $160 if it doesn't break down below $ 95.75.
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RK💕
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The analysis and discussion provided on in.tradingview.com is intended for educational purposes only and should not be relied upon for trading decisions. RK_Chaarts is not an investment adviser and the information provided here should not be taken as professional investment advice. Before buying or selling any investments, securities, or precious metals, it is recommended that you conduct your own due diligence. RK_Chaarts does not share in your profits and will not take responsibility for any losses you may incur. So Please Consult your financial advisor before trading or investing.
BABA
BABA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10🧾 BABA Weekly Options Play – 2025-06-10
Bias: Moderately Bearish
Timeframe: 5 trading days
Catalysts: Weakening momentum, max pain gravity, fading upside catalysts
Trade Type: Single-leg PUT option
🧠 Model Summary Table
Model Direction Strike Entry Price Target Stop Loss Confidence
Grok Bullish 125.00C $0.77 $1.16 $0.385 65%
Claude Bearish 117.00P $1.75 $2.63 $1.23 65%
Llama Bearish 119.00P $2.85 $3.42 $2.28 65%
Gemini Bullish 125.00C $0.77 $1.35 $0.38 68%
DeepSeek Bearish 114.00P $0.79 $1.19 $0.55 70%
✅ Consensus: Moderately Bearish
📉 Core Setup: Downside pullback toward $115–118 support zone
⚠️ Outlier: Gemini and Grok see potential call upside on sentiment rebound
🔍 Technical & Sentiment Recap
Trend: Mixed structure—price stuck between declining intraday EMAs and longer-term resistances
Momentum: Bearish MACD and RSI signals across M5 & daily on 3/5 models
Sentiment: VIX 16.8 (neutral), Max Pain at $118 = gravitational anchor
Options Flow: Heavy call OI near $124–125 (potential cap); Put flows dominate below $118
✅ Final Trade Recommendation
Parameter Value
Instrument BABA
Strategy Single-leg PUT (weekly)
Strike $115.00
Entry Price $1.13 (ask)
Profit Target $1.70 (~50% gain)
Stop-Loss $0.79 (~30% loss)
Size 1 contract
Entry Timing At market open
Confidence 65%
🎯 Rationale: Favorable risk-reward in short-dated put to capture downside drift toward $115 zone. Models align around a modest pullback, driven by technical weakness and lack of fresh bullish catalysts.
⚠️ Risk Factors
Sharp bounce from short-term oversold RSI
Sudden news catalyst (AI/cloud deal, macro relief) could fuel call side squeeze
Weekly options decay accelerates sharply by Thursday
Max pain shift or volatility compression could mute movement
📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT
🎯 Instrument: BABA
🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT)
🎯 Strike: 115.00
💵 Entry Price: 1.13
🎯 Profit Target: 1.70
🛑 Stop Loss: 0.79
📅 Expiry: 2025-06-13
📏 Size: 1 contract
📈 Confidence: 65%
⏰ Entry Timing: open
🕒 Signal Time: 2025-06-08 23:55:22 EDT
Alibaba: Intermediate Correction in ProgressAs Alibaba has remained below resistance at $121.28, we’ve ultimately chosen to consider the high of orange wave x as established. Thus, we currently place the stock in bearish wave y, which should conclude the corrective structure of the larger blue wave (ii). From that point, BABA should reverse, climb back above the $121.28 resistance, and move to significantly higher levels—initially completing blue wave (iii), and eventually the larger turquoise wave 3. However, there’s still a 34% chance that our bearish alternate scenario will play out. In that case, the stock would fall between the two support levels at $80.05 and $58.01, where the low of turquoise wave alt.2 would form.
📈 Over 190 precise analyses, clear entry points, and defined Target Zones - that's what we do.
Alibaba - This was just the obvious bottom!Alibaba - NYSE:BABA - will head much higher:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Ever since Alibaba actually retested the previous all time low in 2022, we have been able to see the textbook creation of a rounding bottom formation. Even the recent break and retest was perfectly playing out and if Alibaba confirmes the potental breakout, a rally of +50% will most likely follow.
Levels to watch: $140, $220
Keep your long term vision!
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - This Chart Speaks In Money!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) prepares for a significant pump:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Basically since Alibaba was listed on the NYSE, it always perfectly respected market structure. With the recent rejection away from the key neckline, Alibaba is now creating a bullish break and retest. After bullish confirmation, this forms a bottom and we might see new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $110, $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - Don't Forget Chinese Stocks Now!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) still remains super interesting:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
After we saw the very expected parabolic rally on Alibaba about four months ago, Alibaba is now perfectly retesting major previous structure. Yes, we could see a short term pullback in the near future but this just offers a perfect break and retest after the rounding bottom pattern.
Levels to watch: $110, $140
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba (BABA) Technical Analysis:Retracement Within an Ascending Channel
Alibaba (BABA) has faced strong supply pressure at $149, a key price level that previously acted as support in 2019 and has now flipped into resistance. The inability to reclaim this level has triggered a retracement, with the stock currently trading around $132, showing signs of continued corrective movement.
Despite the short-term weakness, BABA remains within a developing ascending channel, suggesting a potential higher timeframe bullish structure. If the retracement extends, the next significant level to watch is $110, a historical 2016 resistance level that could now act as a demand zone. A strong reaction and rejection from this level would reinforce the validity of the ascending channel and increase the probability of a trend continuation toward previous all-time highs.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: $149 (2019 support turned resistance)
Current Price: $132 (active retracement zone)
Support Levels:
$110 – Historical resistance from 2016, potential demand zone
$100 – Psychological level, further downside risk
Traders should monitor price action around these key levels, as a confirmed breakdown below $110 could invalidate the channel and shift market structure to a more bearish outlook, while a strong bounce could provide a high-probability long setup within the channel’s framework.
Beginning of the Uptrend for Stock #01Beginning of the Uptrend for Stock #01: 9988 (BABA)
The price has broken out of a consolidation range that lasted approximately two years, supported by a normal volume distribution.
The stock has risen to meet the Fibonacci Extension resistance level of 161.8 at a price of 144 HKD. Currently, it is forming a sideways consolidation pattern on the smaller timeframe, establishing a base structure viewed as re-accumulation.
The 6-month target is set at the Fibonacci Extension level of 261.8, which corresponds to a price of 189 HKD. This target aligns with a price cluster based on the valuation from sensitivity analysis, using the forward EPS estimates for 2025-2026 as a key variable for calculations, along with the standard deviation of the price-to-earnings ratio.
Wait for the Right Moment to Accumulate Shares within the Consolidation Range
Purchase near the support level of the range when the price pulls back. Look for a candlestick reversal pattern as a signal to add to your position.
However, should the price break down to the lower consolidation range, the stock would lose its upward momentum, potentially leading to a prolonged period of consolidation or a deeper pullback to around 90 HKD.
Always have a plan and prioritize risk management.
$BABA on its way to $120s into AprilI would honestly be surprised if it doesnt gap down this Monday before the open. The weekly imo, looks like a mess atm and could gap into $120s easy. If it doesn't, I would expect some consolidation for a fall into the First week of April. We're right at the golden pocket retrace at the .618, very common retracement level, if we look at Fibs with a bearish perspective and measure a retrace back to the lower golden pocket at 1.61 fib from highs, $112.30 would be my ultimate target if we can break $126. $126 opens the flood gates to our ultimate target at $112.
Alibaba (BABA) Share Price Declines from 40-Month HighAlibaba (BABA) Share Price Declines from 40-Month High
As shown in the Alibaba (BABA) share chart, the price reached a 40-month high this week, surpassing $145 per share.
Bullish sentiment is being fuelled by news related to AI prospects in China. According to media reports:
→ China’s AI spending is increasing through investments from state-owned enterprises, private companies, and local authorities, aiming to keep pace with the US $500 billion Star Gate project.
→ Alibaba plans to invest $52 billion over three years in artificial intelligence and cloud computing.
Technical Analysis of Alibaba (BABA) Shares
Despite a positive fundamental backdrop, the chart signals potential concerns:
→ The price is near the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which could act as resistance.
→ Bulls attempted to break the $145 level (which has acted as resistance since late February) on 17 March but failed, as the price could not hold above this mark.
→ Using your preferred oscillator, you are likely to observe a bearish divergence between peaks A and B.
This suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening, and investors could consider taking profits after Alibaba’s exceptionally strong price rally—up approximately 70% since early 2025. If so, a break below the orange trendline could lead to a correction towards the median of the blue channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Bullish Play on (BABA) Ahead of Chinese Economic Data & Alibaba (BABA) is forming a triple top pattern near the $142-$145 resistance zone ahead of key economic data releases and potential positive stimulus measures from the Chinese Congress meeting. While a triple top is traditionally seen as a bearish formation, a breakout above resistance could signal strong bullish momentum, fueled by market optimism regarding Chinese economic support and potential tariff relief.
Trade Setup: Long Position on BABA
📈 Entry Point:
Breakout confirmation above $145 (previous resistance).
If momentum is strong, consider scaling in at $143-$144 for an early entry.
🎯 Target Price:
First Target: $155 (short-term resistance from early 2023).
Second Target: $165 (next major psychological level if sentiment remains strong).
🛑 Stop-Loss:
Below $138 (recent swing low and key support zone).
Alternatively, a trailing stop-loss to secure profits as the price rises.
Catalysts Supporting a Bullish Breakout:
1️⃣ China’s Economic Stimulus 🏦
The Chinese government is expected to announce new stimulus measures to support growth, which could boost investor confidence in Alibaba and other Chinese tech stocks.
Potential fiscal easing & liquidity injections may drive funds into large-cap Chinese equities.
2️⃣ Positive Economic Data Expectations 📊
Retail Sales & Industrial Production (March 17, 2025)
Strong numbers would indicate a rebound in consumer spending & manufacturing, benefiting Alibaba’s core e-commerce business.
3️⃣ Tariff Reduction Speculations 🌎
If the Chinese Congress signals progress on easing U.S.-China tariffs, Alibaba could see increased foreign investment & improved profitability.
4️⃣ Technical Breakout Potential 🔍
The triple-top pattern could turn into a breakout if volume surges past resistance ($145).
A move above this level could trigger short-covering & FOMO buying, leading to a quick rally.
What If the Data Disappoints?
If economic data underwhelms, BABA could reject resistance and pull back toward $130-$135.
In this case, waiting for a confirmed breakout before entering long positions is advisable.
📌 Final Thought:
BABA is at a critical inflection point. If economic optimism and stimulus expectations materialize, a breakout past $145 could fuel a strong rally toward $155-$165. Traders should watch for volume confirmation and be prepared to ride the upside while managing risk carefully. 🚀💹
Check out my other ideas about chineese stocks and more:
Alibaba - This Chart Is Pretty Beautiful!Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) is perfectly respecting structure:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
With a rally of about +80% within a couple of weeks, Alibaba is clearly showing signs of bulls completely taking over. This pressure was not unexpected though after we perfectly witnessed the major trendline breakout a couple of months ago and a retest of the confluence of support.
Levels to watch: $140, $110
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
CHINA FIN MARKETS | Investing in China & AIChina's market resurgence might pose some great opportunities for investors, especially after a long bearish cycle for the global Chinese financial markets.
February 2025 saw a significant shake-up in global markets, with China emerging as a key player driving investor sentiment. The MSCI China Index surged by 11.2% for the month, vastly outperforming the MSCI US Index:
One of the biggest catalysts behind China’s recent rally has been its advancements in Artificial Intelligence (DeepSeekAI being one of the key drivers).
By operating at a fraction of the cost of their US counterparts, such as OpenAI and Meta, DeepSeek's competitive advantage has given China an edge in the AI space, which can be seen in the market confidence.
XIAOMI has been one of the top gainers, largely as they are expanding their market penetration:
Chinese markets in February saw a boost when President Xi Jinping was warmly received by tech industry leaders. A handshake between Xi and Alibaba’s Jack Ma who previously stepped back from the public eye following regulatory crackdowns, was seen as a major gesture of reconciliation between the government and the private sector. This renewed support for private enterprises.
China’s long-term strategy has been paying dividends in high-tech industries. China has increased its global market share in nearly all industries and is outperforming competitors in cost-efficiency, particularly in sectors like copper smelting.
Despite recent gains, China’s stock market has yet to fully recover from its underperformance over the past decade. While the MSCI China Index has risen 34.6% over the past year, long-term returns still lag behind global markets. A US$100 investment in an MSCI World Index tracker in 2010 would have grown to US$480 by early 2024, whereas the same amount invested in an MSCI China Index fund would have only reached US$175.
China’s resurgence has brought a renewed sense of optimism, but investors remain cautious. While AI advancements and low cost of labor have positioned China as a competitive force, historical challenges like regulatory intervention, tariffs and economic instability still loom.
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SNP, Much Needed CorrectionOne simple way to manage a U.S. portfolio is to let the ABC correction run its course, hold cash, and rotate into Asian stocks.
As the tariff buzz unfolds, it's best to stay on the sidelines while market volatility shakes out panicked traders.
When it comes to timing the markets, we’ll check back on May 22.
Drill Baby Drill...
$2.80 to $4.50 in 30 minutes$2.80 to $4.50 in 30 minutes 💥 Been waiting for this NASDAQ:GV trade whole days since morning Buy Alert and reconfirmation in after $2.50 held support strongly before the move 🚀
Called out 3 trades today, all 3 of them reached my pre-planned max target areas 🎯 They were NASDAQ:GV NASDAQ:CDXC NASDAQ:MASS
Excited for new ones tomorrow
BABA in a falling wedge (NEW)BABA stock has been in a long-term downtrend.
We're expecting the price to continue droping as it looks like it got rejected from the downsloping resistance line on the weekly timeframe.
What we can see on the chart is a pattern called a falling wedge.
Most likely the price will revisit $60 or lower but eventually we expect the breakout in Q2 or Q3 2023.
How to trade:
Enter long position if/when we get a breakout with a volume increase.
Final target and the take profit level are shown on the chart.
Good luck