BABA
Has BABA hit the rock bottom?
Technical analysis used is called Elliott Wave technical analysis.
We can see an almost textbook 5 waves movement down.
I have done a quick check of the validity of the count, based on the rules and:
1. Wave 2 never moves the start of Wave 1
2. Wave 3 is not the shortest out of the 3 impulse waves W1,W3,W5
3. Wave 4 never enters the price territory of Wave 1
All checked out confirming the validity of the count.
The Fibonacci sequence is the mathematical basis of Elliott Wave Analysis.Based on that and on the guidelines I can see two scenarios for Alibaba and the ending of Wave 5
1. Scenario Nr 1 - Wave 5 ending where it is now. Based on the common Fib extension of 0.382 one of the most common one for Wave 5 . This one found support 3 times in the past month at this level.
2. Scenario Nr2 - Based on the guidelines when we have an impulse wave and Wave3 is the extended one, which is the case so far, Wave 5 and Wave 1 tend towards equality. This equality would happed, guess where at 0.618 golden ratio.
I continue to be amazed by the precision of the Elliott Wave Model.
Disclaimer: This is my analysis and does not constitute financial advice.
Is BABA still bearish?Let's first review the facts:
1- Moving in a Downward channel for more than 400 days!
2- Rejection from EMA50 today
3- Option wall data: 100-130 in the next 4 weeks!
I think it is very unlikely to see BABA out of the bearish channel soon!
These types of moves are the result of mean reversion traders!
Best,
Moshkelgosha
DISCLAIMER
I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this site are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using this site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this site.
*You can see the most important support (green lines) and resistance (red lines) to watch in the coming days in these charts!(Based on Option wall data)
**Yellow line Shows Maximum Pain level.
***You can see more details and educational materials by reviewing the previous posts!
BABA | 2nd moveBABA... so much attention lately.
Step 1
It would be pretty right to say, that most people have bought BABA at higher levels, 150-180$.
This was before the big recent fall.
This was step 1 - entering the stock before the collapse.
Step 2
We are heading to the next step, which could be not very planned, but considering the circumstances, becomes necessary.
Because of such a massive decrease of price, it's important to average the overall price, by buying more of the cheaper stock.
It will yield eventually additional profit and compensate the initial higher price.
A possible Step 3
Some are trying to guess the future, and where will the chart be in some months from now.
Since we all know it's a useless task, the only realistic approach to handle current situation, is keep buying on each next significant price decrease.
As example:
Step 1 was made at 170$.
Step 2 will be done at 100$
(if necessary) Step 3 at 70$
Knowing that BABA has a significant amount of cash, nearly no debts, positive and stable cash flow, good ratio indicators and 1 billion of active users - even if the stock will go to zero, it wouldn't change much.
The company won't close, just because the stock worth less - they keep selling everyday.
Besides, if the stock would reach 70$ at some point (which doubtful), it could be that for such a price, even those who don't trust BABA, will all run to buy such a discounted high quality product.
Considering that 70-80$ does not seem as a realistic option, 100$ purchase is the best next possibility, which shouldn't be neglected.
Let the BABA power be with us!
Alibaba Analysis 25.01.2022Hello Traders,
welcome to this free and educational analysis.
I am going to explain where I think this asset is going to go over the next few days and weeks and where I would look for trading opportunities.
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Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
US Stock In Play: $BABA (Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd.)$BABA is caught in a 15-month downtrend channel but there could be short term upside opportunity ahead.
trading above Q2 earnings VWAP & 10/20MA. also attempted to re-capture its 50MA, with MA convergences taking place. price action behavior is very similar to oct'21 period.
$UPS $BA $DIS $BABA I OptionsSwing WatchlistUPS 4H I UPS possible ascending triangle. Seems to be testing the bottom of the pattern we can attempt to catch the bottom on this name with a tight stock below $206.
BA 1H I The breakout we wanted above $219 happened last week. BA can hit $230 resistance this week before pulling back as earnings approach on 01/26.
DIS 2H I Strong bounce on DIS at the bottom of our channel. We've picked up unusual activity betting it could fill the gap to $155. Watching a break above 01/14's high.
BABA 1D I Jumped to a high of $138.70 last week. Retraced as the markets pulled back and it is now holding support above $130. Possible breakout on the 15M time frame.
LIFETIME OPPORTUNITY IN CHINESE STOCKS ?BZUN :
Chinese stocks have been beaten down badly. Is this the opportunity of a lifetime to buy them cheap? I don't know.
Tell me what you think.
I like the chart and it looks like we could have a substantial bounce here. I'm buying some January calls.
All resistances mentioned on the chart are potential targets. Let's regain the 50 MA and see.
NIO and BABA charts look also good.
Trade safe!
Bullish $BABA setup$BABA Daily chart bullish setup, we have been calling out $BABA all of last week for a move higher based out of the TTM Squeeze and the bullish flow we saw on our Options flow in $KWEB the Chinese Tech ETF.
$BABA has been the laggard along with other Chinese name all of last year when Tech stocks were making new all time highs. In the blood bath in tech sector last week $BABA , $JD , $BIDU stood well and were showing relative strength (possibly new money flowing into Chinese stocks). $BABA has TTM Squeeze formed here and the momentum is positive here looking for a move higher into the $140 1.618 extension and then opening of the gap $148. $BABA has gap fill job at $161. We are long $BABA calls Feb 18th 2022 strike and staying in it.
BABA Decided to go South..!In the weekly charts, you clearly see BABA broke its Bullish trend line after 297 weeks and finished the pullback, and continues its way to the south.
I believe it will see 150 and 130 if it closes below 170.
if you are eager to buy the dips be careful, and wait for coming dips, do not jump the gun until a clear reversal pttern.
Most Chinese stocks build strong bearish trends..!
BABA reversal ?We can see that BABA made a 5 Waves down on daily. BABA recently made the 1-2 to setup for the reversal. We can see a big green candle near demand with the volume validating the move. BABA retraced perfectly to the 0.618 for wave 2. It also broke neutral and 20day MA is reclaimed and curling up.
However, overall its still making higher lows and we don't know if HSI reversed. With all China uncertainty, becareful and manage risk.
Is this the first wave on daily for the reversal or only intra waves for earnings ? Is it the floor ? We don't know but it looks good keep it on watch...