BABA
BABA's Elliott wave count, one probable count out of many !!!
Double and Triple ZigZag Rules:
Double (DZ) and Triple (TZ) Zigzags are similar to Zigzags, and are typically two or three Zigzag patterns strung together with a joining Wave called an x Wave, and are corrective in nature. Doubles are not common, and Triples are rare. Zigzags, Double Zigzags and Triple Zigzags are also known as Zigzag family patterns, or 'Sharp' patterns. Double Zigzags are labeled w-x-y, while Triple Zigzags are labeled w-x-y-xx-z. Both these patterns are included in the list of rules and guidelines below. Only a Double Zigzag is illustrated below.
Wave W must be a Zigzag.
Wave C of W cannot be a failure.
Wave X can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave X must be smaller than Wave W by price.
Wave X must retrace at least 20% of W by price.
The gross price movement of Wave X must be less then 3 times the price movement of Wave W.
Wave X must be no more than 5 times Wave W by time.
Wave Y must be a Zigzag
Wave Y must be greater than or equal to Wave X by price.
Back to back and double failures are not allowed.
Wave Y must be greater than 90% of Wave W by price, and Wave Y must be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Y must be no more than a factor of 5 times either Wave X or W in price or time.
Wave C of Y cannot be a failure.
Wave XX can be any corrective pattern except an ET.
Wave XX must be smaller than Wave Y by price.
Wave XX must retrace at least 20% of Y.
The gross price movement of Wave XX must be less than 3 times the gross movement of Wave W.
Wave Z must be a Zigzag
Wave Z must be greater than or equal to Wave XX by price.
Wave Z must be less than 5 times Wave Y by price, and must also be less than 5 times Wave W by price.
Wave Z must be no more than a 5 times either Waves XX, Y, X or W in both price and time.
Double and Triple ZigZag Guidelines:
The largest Wave in Wave W is usually less than Wave W by price.
Wave X is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave X is usually less than 70% of Wave W by price.
Wave X will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave W.
Wave X is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave W.
Wave X is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave W.
The largest Wave in Wave X is usually less than 140% of Wave W by price.
The time taken by Wave X is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of Wave 1.
Wave Y is next most likely to be equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of W by price.
Expect the time taken by Wave Y to be between 61.8% of Wave W and 161.8% of shortest of Wave W and X.
Wave XX is usually a Zigzag family pattern.
Wave XX is usually less than 70% of Wave Y by price.
Wave XX will usually retrace at least 30% of Wave Y.
Wave XX is most likely to be a 38.2% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 50% retracement of Wave Y.
Wave XX is next most likely to be a 61.8% retracement of Wave Y.
The largest Wave within Wave XX is usually less than 140% of Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is most likely to be about equal to Wave Y by price.
Wave Z is next most likely to be about equal to 61.8% or 161.8% of Wave Y.
The largest Wave in Wave Z is usually less than Wave Y by price.
BABA's Elliott wave count, # 2 probable count out of many !ZigZag Rules:
A ZigZag is a three wave structure labeled A-B-C, generally moving counter to the larger trend. It is the most common three wave Elliott pattern. Zigzags are corrective in nature.
Wave A must be an Impulse or a Leading Diagonal.
Wave B can only be a corrective pattern.
Wave B must be shorter than Wave A by price. All internal points are considered.
Wave B must be at least 20% of A by price.
Although there is no minimum time constraint for Wave B, it must not exceed 10 times the time taken by Wave A.
Wave C must be an Impulse or an Ending Diagonal.
If Wave A is a Leading Diagonal, then Wave C must not be an Ending Diagonal.
Wave C must be longer than 90% of Wave B by price.
Wave C must be less than 5 times Wave B by price.
It is not allowable to have both Wave 5 of A a failure (Wave 5 is shorter then Wave 4) and Wave 5 of C a failure.
Wave C must be no more than 10 times either Wave A or B in price or time.
ZigZag Guidelines:
It is unusual for a Wave within Wave A to have a greater gross price movement than Wave A.
Wave B should end nowhere near beginning of Wave A
Wave B should retrace at least 30% of Wave A.
Wave B is most likely to retrace Wave A by about 38.2%.
Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 50%.
Wave B is next most likely to retrace Wave A by about 61.8%.
The largest Wave in B is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A.
The time taken by Wave B is usually between 61.8% and 161.8% of the time taken by Wave A.
Wave C is most likely to have a similar price length to Wave A.
The next most likely price lengths for Wave C are 61.8% and 161% of Wave A
The next most likely price length for Wave C is 61.8% of Wave A beyond the end of Wave A.
If Wave C is much longer than 161.8% of A, then the pattern is more probably the beginning of an Impulse than a Zigzag.
If Wave C is complete, and has a greater slope than Wave A, expect the Zigzag to extend to an Impulse.
Although Wave C should always be greater in price to Wave B, in rare cases Wave C can be up to 10% shorter than Wave B.
The largest Wave within C by price is usually less than the gross price movement of Wave A.
The time taken by Wave C is usually between 61.8% of Wave A and 161.8% of the shortest Wave of A and B.
BABAAlibaba is in the correction phase. After having broken the support line, we are correcting Fibo. In search of 61.80% and we still have 78.6% that is at 84 dollars. Now just expect a very visible figure or strong reversal pattern!
DISCLAIMER: Please note that my studies portray my personal opinion only and should be considered for educational purposes only. They should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell an asset!
I am not responsible for any damages to your capital. Your capital is at risk in the equity market.
#BABA Alibaba peaking its head under the previous weekly lowAlibaba has peaked its head under the 2018 weekly swing low which is concerning. However on the positive, there does seem to be some degree of bullish divergence with the RSI not making a new low.. so there is potential for a bounce, but bulls will really want the weekly candle to close back above $130 to have some sort of comfort.
BABA has more downside leftPeople who are referring to Charlie Munger , Ray Dalio and other Gurus taking positions in Baba, prove again and again that we are retail herds.
You know their positions for last quarter after 13F filings does anyone know their short positions and Option Strategies.
TV Media / Youtube Videos and other blogs keep spreading the narrative about Baba is available at great valuation and the herd follows the Fundamentals and Shmundamentals.
Its happened in the past and it will keep happening but the way the herd will be played will be different.
Looking at the Technical , there are 2 areas where the price can bounce, around $110 and then around mid 80s. Till then I don't see Bulling Divergences, Not much Volume , and no strong Bulling Patterns.
At Smaller Time Frames like the 1 Hr, there is a bullish pattern forming, but it will not last due to strong Downward trend on the Daily.
There is a chance of another downtrend around Feb earnings season. Then Sideways Consolidation till Aug-Sept 2022.
BABA - STOCKS - 18. OCT. 2021Welcome to our Weekly V2-Trade Setup ( BABA ) !
-
4 HOUR
Alibaba group undervalued currently.
DAILY
Most investors panic selling.
WEEKLY
Overall great technical setup!
-
STOCK SETUP
BUY BABA
ENTRY LEVEL @ 168.02
SL @ 151.47
TP @ Open
Max Risk: 0.5% - 1%!
(Remember to add a few pips to all levels - different Brokers!)
Leave us a comment or like to keep our content for free and alive.
Have a great week everyone!
ALAN
BABA - time for a shiftShift has come - from this moment on, BABA will start it's rise (my prognosis).
The reason for this assumption is the very positive PE ratio, which was not hurt by the price fall.
BABA seems very healthy financially, as if it was buying out own stocks during the fall.
So my guess is that those who will still the opportunity to get the stocks for 130$, will catch the last train upwards.
I personally doubt that it will really reach the 130$ already, but since there is there are still 2 days till the weekend, it may have enough time to bounce.
Is it time to invest in China?KWEB is a China technology based ETF.
Top 10 holdings by weight:
Tencent Holdings ~ 10.62%
Alibaba Group Holding ~ 10.32%
JD.com ~ 7.21%
Meituan ~ 6.99%
Pinduoduo Inc ~ 6.97%
NetEase Inc ~ 4.71%
Baidu Inc ~ 4.27%
Bilibili Inc ~ 3.83%
Trip.com Group ~ 3.82%
JD Health International ~ 3.32%
Fundamental Analysis
China’s stock market pullback this year has been in line with the average annual drawdown (approximately 30%); historically, this volatility has tended to produce double-digit annualized gains.
In terms of seasonality, over the past 20 years, October has been amongst the strongest months for the Chinese stock market.
Technical Analysis
The 50sma has been tested as resistance 3 times before. A breakout above the 50sma could signal a significant change in trend.
The RSI has shown a positive divergence, as the last three times, we tested the horizontal line (blue arrow), in each case RSI is showing higher lows.
JD - ARC ENDING - UP OR DOWN?All,
JD looks like it's going to make a pretty sizeable move here. My honest guess is the downside. With that said I don't think they are a bad company by any means. Decent earnings etc. I just don't see the traffic/high level interest to really keep the momentum up. That being said I always plot both theories up and down so of course do your own DD. Like most of these plays I would do 1:1 puts/calls and drop the other when you have conformation.
BABA. We could have already finished wave Z of WXYXXZ ="Earning"On Friday 29th, if we have solid earnings we could have a big bullish move. The only move that i am not buying is the
last one on daily it's kind of ABC corrective "Against the trend " move. On smaller time frames you might count it
as impulsive but on larger it's more ABC.
✅ALIBABA LOCAL LONG/PORTFOLIO ADDITION🚀
✅ALIBABA is trading in a downtrend
Following the company's falling out of favor
With the Chinese Government
And fueled further by the Coming Evergrande collapse
That will drag China down with it
Today, the stock gapped and fell even lower
On the earnings news
However, a massive support level is ahead
At around 128$ per share, and I think
This might be a great local long
With the upside limited by the falling resistance
Also, with the stock trading with 60% discount
It might be a good place to start adding BABA to your long term portfolio
As it is clear that whatever economic storm is coming
Alibaba will be the one candidate to survive it
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
AliBABA dropping in momentum. BABAWe are likely to lose even more ground on this one. It's quite a classical picture: zigzag, upgoing zigzag to resume in more zigzag. I am oversimplifying things ofcourse here. Taking conservative goals here, as we have dropped a significant amount on his one and have been doing so for a significant amount of time also. We do not know why, but continue to observe that any market follows rules of fractal action with a series of cohesive collapsing and expanding, repeating patterns. We use this principle in market analysis and this is by far the most effective approach that we know of.
We are not in the business of getting every prediction right, no one ever does and that is not the aim of the game. The Fibonacci targets are highlighted in purple with invalidation in red. Fibonacci goals, it is prudent to suggest, are nothing more than mere fractally evident and therefore statistically likely levels that the market will go to. Having said that, the market will always do what it wants and always has a mind of its own. Therefore, none of this is financial advice, so do your own research and rely only on your own analysis. Trading is a true one man sport. Good luck out there and stay safe!
LONG BABA:TRADE OF THE CENTURYLong baba 1@140 & double down limits at 2x130, 4x88 and 8x58.
Possible to hedge with LONG $55 baba put LEAP hedging 5-10% of ur stonk notional.
Also possible to participate in the downside between 140-130 and 130-90 and 90 to 60. these key bear 'breakout' levels smart buyers may want to structure option exposure around and between to take alpha out on the downside.
this is trade of the century - trade time is 12-36m with target of 300-500 depending on ur duration preference.
why? baba is at MACRO supp level at 130-140. bears will NOT take this lvl.
institutional flows are BIG long. goldman, ray dalio, charlie munger, hsbc have ALL doubled down and MAX longed this baba dip (they have opertaions in china & relationship with government hence baba risk is over played.
short interest remains low at 2%
BABA - It's getting hotterBABA has broken through the major resistance level of 144$/sh, and it seems that next week it might touch the next resistance level at 136$/sh.
There should be quite many people who entered the market at the level of 160-170$/sh, while surely there also enough people who entered the stock at much higher levels, and now might be panicking.
The lower it gets, the better it is eventually, because BABA has no debts and with nearly 1B of users, as one of major representatives of Chinese market, cannot just go bankrupt.
Considering mentioned above, those who entered the stock too high, will need to compensate their losses, by acquiring even more stocks, to balance the average purchase price.
The major question now is, at which level shall we expect to enter the compensating portion - at 140$ or will it eventually get as low as 136$ or even 125$.
Please share your ideas in comments.