BABA
$JD Potential IHS I would like to see the right shoulder form and better action on the shorter time frames. Looks to me like the best bet would be to wait for selling pressure to cool. Do you think it holds the right inverse shoulder? At what point?
This is not financial advice or advice of any form. This post is made for entertainment purposes only.
ALIBABA ($BABA): Technical Analysis on daily chartHi everyone!
The main trend of $BABA is bearish on the daily chart, but most of the bearish momentum has already been worked on by the market. Having said that, even in the short term I remain bearish at least up to the support area, from there I cannot exclude some Reversal Pattern (see chart below). If this happens, an update to this analysis will be necessary because before trying to take a long position I want to wait for at least one clear signal (for example, an impulsive structure on the hourly chart).
POTENTIAL REVERSAL PATTERN
If we look at the Daily Chart, the support area could turn into something like a Right Shoulder of a potential "Inverted Head & Shoulders".
Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖
Cheers!
N.B.: Updates will follow below
BIG $BABA HnS Swing Position IdeaSupport in gray box isnt only valid support.
Generally just looking for the next shoulder to form, but this might already be a good entry area.
This would be a beautiful HnS and the breakout could take us far.
Keep a lookout for where else the shoulder may form, break gray bos and shoulder can still form lower, hard invalidation is if we get new lows below 'head'.
BABA (Long Swing Idea - trendline bounce, fib retracement, S&R)Trade Rationale:
BABA is looking great for a 2 to 4 week expiration Options Call swing play. It is currently holding a previous resistance turned support area between $100 and $103. In confluence with this level, BABA has also completed a fibonacci retracement back to the 50% level almost perfectly. It is also holding the 200 ema on the 4H and Daily timeframes in confluence with the formation of a falling wedge and 3rd touch on the current uptrend support line (created from the lows of the Oct 24th and Nov 9th daily candles). While we're at it, let's go ahead and add in the bullish divergence on the 4H and Daily timeframes. NOTE: There are currently 4 gaps on BABA's chart right now, 2 above current price and 3 below current price.
Trade Idea:
I am looking to play calls with at least a 2 to 4 week expiration date with a strike price of 107c (Targeting the first gap above current price between $106.63 and $107.79.) The more time on the contract the less THETA decay eats away at the value of the contract. Also consider a contract with a breakeven close to your target as well as an options contract that doesn't have high Implied Volatility, because if IV slows and begins to revert back to the mean value your options contracts could still loss value from IV crush. Basically control for the effect that the options greeks will have on your contracts to maximize gains and minimize losses. My ultimate take profit is at the origin of the falling wedge which is also the beginning of the second gap above the current price between $113 and $116. I will look to place a STOP LOSS (Exit Trade) below $101.87 and 100.53 and will exit if a daily candle closes below these levels.
Baba looking for a bottom again (potential bullish long term)The falling wedge has played out with an extension and we have now hit support so a short term bounce is likely. We still have a gap to fill and potential support levels to test should we fail to rise above the longer term Inverse H&S bottom for now (this pattern remains valid should we remain above the all time lows during this correction). Ultimately, expectations are for a move to the 180 level once current broader market weakness and correction plays out. Looking to take this long trade once the next support level is tested.
Not investment advice and do your own due diligence!
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA when Charlie Munger did:
or reentered when it was cheaper than the IPO:
Now looking at the BABA Alibaba options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $110 strike price Calls with
2023-8-18 expiration date for about
$10.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%.
I have chosen that expiration date to allow me to be wrong and not close the position and to have a bigger gain by the expiration date, if BABA Alibaba keeps on climbing.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
ALIBABA Potential for Bullish Rise | 14th February 2023Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for ALIBABA is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud , indicating a bullish market.
Looking for a pullback buy entry at 92.85, where the overlap support is. Stop loss will be at 84.32, where the previous overlap support is. Take profit will be at 121.28, where the recent high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
AAPL: LAST MAN STANDING / FIB / PREDICTION / MASSIVE CHANNELDESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a detailed MACRO analysis of AAPL laid out in its MASSIVE MONTHLY CHANNEL of 180 - 123.75 that has been held since DECEMBER 2020. Out of 8 massive US market movers AAPL was the only one to hold a positive position at market close on Feb 3.
IMPORTANT LIST OF US MARKET MOVERS: AAPLE, COSTCO, NVIDIA, FACEBOOK, ALIBABA, AMAZON, GOOGLE, AMD
POINTS:
1. Deviation of 6.25 DICTATES SUPPLY & DEMAND POCKET PLACEMENT.
2. Dotted orange vertical lines represent a months time.
3. EMA'S: 45 (BLUE), 100 (YELLOW), 200 (RED).
4. Green dotted vertical lines represent top for AAPL top.
5. Optimal Target: 161.25
6. Notice EMA movement where current placement would signify price action has plenty to give to the upside.
RSI: Common Range for RSI to linger between 50 - 70 despite somewhat overbought territory.
MACD: Notice current uptrend of buying to selling pressure and not the similar trajectory and angle. MACD has yet to ride trend before drop occurs which is highlighted by sphere.
SCENARIO #1: In a BULLISH scenario price action lingers around 155 SUPPORT and we see sideways action OR we see a sudden drop in the coming days but bounce 148.75 SUPPORT without losing upward momentum and confirming a continuation of upward momentum and confirming current setup.
SCENARIO #2: In a BEARISH scenario price action 148.75 & continues with strong downward momentum to 145 and beyond that break uptrend and invalidate setup.
FULL CHART LINK: www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:AAPL
Alibaba | Fundamental AnalysisThe previous several years have been petty tough for e-commerce giant Alibaba Group, to say the least. After peaking amid the coronavirus pandemic, the company lost nearly 80% of its value over the next two years. Since then, the company has rallied, up 78% from its October 2022 low, but still a far cry from the levels that preceded the COVID-19 pandemic.
Needless to say, these have been challenging times for Alibaba and its investors. And while the company still has a considerable way to go and overcome challenges, here are a few reasons to be optimistic about Alibaba stock.
China begins to roll back quarantine restrictions
China's anti-COVID-19 policies have undoubtedly hurt Alibaba. The ban has negatively impacted China's overall economic activity, and taking into account Alibaba's size and how entrenched it is in the Chinese economy (which is the second largest in the world), it has had a direct impact on the company.
In addition to people spending less during store closures in China, this policy has also hurt Alibaba's logistics network, particularly due to road and highway closures. All of this led to the company's first-ever low YoY revenue growth in June 2022.
But there should be brighter days ahead. No one can say for sure when China will fully open its doors, but some parts of the country have begun to take steps in that direction in December last year. If the situation is similar to the U.S., a reopening in China could boost economic growth with the help of improved spending and household consumption. Alibaba should benefit from this.
Cloud business growth
Cloud infrastructure and services are becoming an important part of any business that uses the Internet for its operations. In Q3 of 2022 alone, global spending on cloud infrastructure services rose to $57 billion, bringing total spending in the past 12 months to $217 billion.
With a 5% market share, Alibaba Cloud lags behind market leaders Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Alphabet Google Cloud (34%, 21%, and 11%, respectively), but the trend is there.
For the quarter that ended Sept. 30, 2022, Alibaba Cloud revenue grew 4% YoY to more than $2.9 billion, driven by public cloud growth. More encouraging, however, should be the growth in Alibaba Cloud's non-Internet Industry (NII) customers. The number of NII customers grew 20 percent year over year to 58 percent of total cloud revenue.
These strong results were achieved at the expense of government services, telecommunications companies, and financial services. Cloud services are integral to all three of these areas, which could lead to long-term recurring revenue for Alibaba.
The global cloud computing market is projected to reach more than $1.7 trillion by 2029, at an average annual growth rate of just under 20 percent. Even if Alibaba Cloud can't make the top three in market share, it will have plenty of room for success as it expands the overall pie.
Jack Ma's departure from Ant Group
No one was surprised when Jack Ma, Alibaba's founder, announced he was stepping down as chairman. Although Ma had led Alibaba's development and triumph, his departure did not affect the company too much because the leadership was already in new hands.
However, many were shocked when Ma announced that he was giving up control of fintech giant Ant Group, in which Alibaba has a 33% stake. Ant Group was scheduled to go public in November 2020 with a capitalization of about $37 billion, but the stock was canceled at the last minute largely because of regulatory scrutiny.
With Ma no longer controlling Ant Group, the likelihood that the company could restart its initial public offering (IPO) process has increased significantly, though it likely won't be smooth. Ant Group's IPO could bring Alibaba a large cash infusion that could be used as China's quarantine restrictions ease.
Amazon AMZN - Manufacturing SupportAmazon is a company I frankly do not like anything about. I feel it's like the North American version of the Chinese Communist Party's Aliexpress and roughly exists to rely on a network of fake reviews to push junk made in the CCP's factories through North America for the purposes of letting the Party keep people employed so they don't rebel and to allow the regime a financial lifeline.
I personally make a point of buying elsewhere under all circumstances and have found no reason to use Amazon. The prices aren't even good anymore.
However, when it comes to trading, I don't care. I care about price action, because I believe that the price action fractal reflects the combined knowledge of all market participants.
If it was a buy and hold kind of market, I would stay away from it, but I think Amazon is actually presenting a major opportunity manufacturing support at the COVID-low double bottom and has produced something you go long on profitably.
In early November, I made a strong call on Amazon amid the price action following the Q3 earnings dump that ended up working out for a ~15% gain.
AMZN Amazon - Realistic Expectations In Both Doom and Gloom
The long opportunity at present is even larger, and is primarily based on the fact that I believe that indexes are set for an 8-10%+ jump before we see the real nightmare of 2023 from a broken global economy unfold before our faces and the happy days never come back.
SPX500 / ES / SPY - Enjoy the Party While It Lasts
The basis for the idea is simple. Markets at large do not seem to want to go down. Amazon ran its November post-earnings dump low and has consolidated above the 2020 COVID hysteria panic dump low.
Additionally, Friday's NFP dump was met with a sharp 5%+ reversal, leading to Amazon closing the week above the $85.88 low. The MMs still have not ran the bottom, which indicates they're long from the COVID low and this point will be saved for future considerations once they're short.
The most obvious target for an upside area for the purposes of selling short is the gap at $105, which the previous bounce most notably, conveniently, and only slightly missed. A run to this area already amounts to 25% gain on a time horizon that I would expect is within the period of now to February FOMC.
But additionally, AMZN has a breakaway gap in the $120s that it can target, should that $105~ gap fill and Amazon acts like META has and not retrace.
However, should a pump not transpire in either Amazon or the indexes in general, the best case scenario for Amazon is $75-65. Should this unfold, it may either take a long time for recovery; It may also never recover.
With any long trade, I have to caution readers that the situation in Mainland China under the Communist Party is very severe, as the world's largest and most important nation has been sacked by Wuhan Pneumonia for the last three years.
The situation is not getting better, it's getting worse.
The amount of people and high ranking Party members who have perished is scary, so much scarier than the little bit that comes out from behind the Great Firewall's censorship system.
Should the flames of the pandemic suddenly accelerate one day and cause the fall of key CCP cadres, up to and including Xi Jinping, you should always remember that 6:00 PM Beijing time is right before the NYSE 7:30 open, and thus all long trades are at risk of a significant and unprecedented gap down.
*Sighs* ... Human beings tend not to believe anything until they can see it. So long as their prejudices believe something is "not possible," they won't even consider it can happen until it starts unfolding before their very eyes.
However, then it's already too late.
The problem with Wuhan Pneumonia is the English-language propaganda machines ("media") will not report the truth of the situation in Mainland China and will help the Party cover up the pestilence until the plague is so serious that the Party collapses and nobody can keep a lid on the real disaster befalling the Central Kingdom.
When that day comes, it will imperil more than your PnL and the state of your portfolio.
It's simply just too critical that before that day comes, you do your part to reject and oppose the Chinese Communist Party and the Marxist-Leninist ideals and systems it has spread throughout the world.
For when that day comes, it will be too late for regret.
Hope for the future lies in the present.
Just your choices in the present. It's a test of your heart and soul.
BABA Short IdeaGood setup for a short. Equity reached highs of the last run and starting to stumble while market ripping and showing some reversial potential here. Also not surprising is that it was one of the leaders in the up move and now is signalling where the market may go next. Red line SL, green lines TP 1, and 2, respectively. GL
BABA Breaking out!! Wait for pullback !BABA has broken out and currently retesting the RESISTANCE ZONE @ 120 - 140
We can expect at least a slight pullback from here as Price action has been overly bullish the past few days + MACD is in severely overbought condition
We are expecting a soon to be GOLDEN CROSS with 50 MA crossing 200 MA
We also see a massive spike in the ADX implying a very strong ongoing trend for the BULLS
Those who do not have positions yet can look to ENTER/LONG along the:
100 - 110 USD zone
Personally I will not set stop losses here as Im expecting to hold BABA for long
Fundamentally, China domestic demand is growing massively with a massive middle class. BABA also has a huge economic moat along with Jack Ma relinquishing his position on the board and staying low, BABA's days of billion dollar fines might be over.