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Babalong

Best Deep-Value Large-cap Growth play - Alibaba (BABA)Macro Reasons -China has a population of 1.3billion VS US's 0.33 Billion, about 4x more -Rising Chinese middle class with a growing disposable income -It is estimated that China's GDP is set to overtake the US in 5-8 years Fundamentals Reasons -With 56% of the e-commerce market share in China and a growing e-commerce pie, Alibaba is poised for greater growth in 5-10years -Supported by Cainiao logistics to enable efficient e-commerce delivery and Alipay to complete its transactions/funding for their merchants, it forms Alibaba's iron triangle to capture a large market share in the e-commerce related space. -Dominant Cloud player at 40% market share, this segment just turned profitable recently and will contribute to its growth strongly like Amazon's AWS (30% margins) Valuation FCF: 26Bil USD per year i.e 9.6 USD per share (2.711 Billion shares outstanding) 20X multiple(Bottom valuation) : 192 USD per share 25X multiple(Bottom valuation) : 240 USD per share Net Cash of 20 USD per share (462bil RMB Cash - 115bil RMB Debt = 347 RMB Net Cash = 54bil USD net Cash ) Fair Value at current conditions = 212 USD per share (20X FCF) - 260 USD per share (25X FCF) FCF 10 years later: 9.6 USD *4.04 (15% CAGR for 10 yrs) = 38.78 USD per share 20X multiple (10% discount rate - 5% perp growth): 775 USD per share +20USD net cash =795 USD per share 795/215 (Current share price 14th June 2021) = 3.70X in 10 years* i.e 14% CAGR *Very conservative estimate of 15% CAGR FCF & terminal multiple of 20X, also assuming all FCF are re-invested in other biz and not distributed via dividends/ buybacks Technicals Seems like it is at its bottom after a 30% slump in its share price, touching a very strong upward sloping support line indicating the bottom is near. Incidentally, it corresponds with the bottom valuation of 212 USD per share (20X FCF + net cash). Addressing Risks Risks of VIE structure & CCP risk are unfounded, one can easily exchange its ADR for the equivalent HK shares at the ratio of 1ADR:8 HK shares and Alibaba is too big to fail for the CCP. The recent USD2.8 Billion fine on BABA is only 4% of revenue and not as dramatic as the 30% slump in BABA's recent valuation (from $310 to $211 per share). Also, the CCP has recently approved Ant Group’s new license to operate Chongqing Ant Consumer Finance, in which it has a 50 per cent stake. This indicates that the CCP doesn't want to tear down Alibaba but rather work towards a more successful China together.
NYSE:BABALong
by FIRE_CAPITAL_SG
1
$BABA Waiting for entryI have noticed a lot of bullish sweeps lately trying to guess the bottom here. There is a descending wedge forming on the weekly chart that has become an issue if it continues to drop under the buy zone that I have set below. My buy zone is based on the retracement level that coincides with the highs in 2018. As these sweeps kept coming in, the 2022 LEAPS caught my attention. If BABA manages to break out, it will be interesting how price will hold these levels now that it seems that big accumulation is taking part. Also important to note that ADX is getting a strong sell signal whilst orderflow shows otherwise. IV is also the lowest it has been in the last 52 weeks, so a big move to either side could take place soon.
NYSE:BABA
by Modus777
BABA BUY/LONG NOW READY! 200.00 to 350.00 by Early-Mid 2022! TICKER CODE: BABA Company Name: Alibaba Group Holding Limited Industry: Consumer Cyclical | Internet Retail | China Position Proposed: BUY Technical Analysis 1. Falling Wedge Pattern (Potentially Completed) 2. Ranging in Channel 3. Area of Confluence with Trendline and Horizontal Support (Key Level) 4. Fibonacci Retracement at 0.786 is at key market structure 5. Fibonacci Expansion Safe Take Profit Level 1 (Grey Zone) Also the length of Flagpole and also Channel Range (Trendline Resistance) Buy Entry: NOW READY (200.00-220.00) 1st Partial Take Profit: 350.00 (Early-Mid 2022) 2nd Partial Take Profit: 439.50 (End 2022) Stop Loss: 170.00
NYSE:BABALong
by traderprosignals
2
BABA Long channeling between the .5 and the .382. BABA really obeyed the channel on its descent and when it bounced it immediately began retracing its journey from its nadir. Hard to say what confluence of fundamental events surrounding Jack Ma and ANT IPO and Chinese regulation really did the dent in the price action, but BABA was more or less overbought on the 1hr timeframe according to the RSI in October. There is a small C&H on the 15 minute. If not that, it might be a pennant that forms from the right lip of the cup itself. Would love to see BABA achieve new highs by June so I am longing what I think might be the end of the right shoulder of what I think is a massive inverted H&S. This is not investment advice but the idle musings of an old man.
NYSE:BABALong
by AdamWest
1
BABA TO RETEST ATH IN COMING MONTHSBABA has broken out of the wedge pattern and has begun to accumulate. We think BABA will break out on earnings and test the 270 price target. We believe BABA will retest 320 by mid or late March given favorable market conditions. The following reasons include: 1) Strong Pandemic recovery 2) China is set to outgrow the United States in 5 years instead of 10 years 3) BABA is severely undervalued 4) BABA will rekindle a relationship with the Chinese gov and an ANT IPO will most likely play out 5) Big money is flowing into China as a safe haven.
NYSE:BABALong
by Nirvana_Investment