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Alibaba (BABA): Dissecting the FUD, Fundamentals, and TechnicalsAlibaba Group is a Chinese multinational tech company specializing in e-commerce, and IT. This Chinese company is listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) as BABA. In this analysis, I’ll be covering the company’s fundamentals by looking at its business model and financials, as well as technical analysis for the stock. I’ll also be providing my own insight on why this stock has been rather underperforming for the past few weeks, and what we can expect for the future. Business Model - Alibaba, while it initially started with a focus on e-commerce, has expanded to other territories as well - It aims to offer the necessary digital infrastructure as an e-commerce platform, providing small businesses the necessary tools and equipment to operate online. - Alibaba also takes part in cloud computing, just like AWS and Azure, offering data storage, big data analysis, and machine learning services. - Alibaba also has a business dedicated to digital media, producing original content - Alibaba owns 33% of Ant Financial’s shares, which is what affected the price action so heavily recently Ant Financial IPO FUD - Ant Financial is a company that was formerly known as Alipay. - Its expected market valuation after the dual listing was expected to reach over $310 billion, which would have significantly affected BABA’s price as well. - However, the Chinese Communist Party halted the Initial Public Offering (IPO) of this company, without an official explanation. - Ant Financial has transformed the way Chinese people interact with money. It challenged China’s banking system by brining easy use of payments, borrowing, and investing through smartphones across the entire country - Ant Financial’s business model, in essence, puts financial services outside the direct control of the CCP and Chinese banks Financials - So at this point, we understand why Alibaba’s stock prices have been negatively affected by news. - Looking at the company’s financials, we can discover that the firm’s fundamentals remain solid - The company has shown a parabolic growth in their revenue since 2010, reaching record highs for the 2020 Estimate - Accordingly, its operating income grows at a steady pace as well. - Its gross profit margin averages at 55.5%, which is considered as extremely high profit margins - They did report a decline in yoy EPS for the 12 months ending in September 30, 2020, and a 60% yoy decline in the EPS for the quarter ending at the same time. - Nevertheless, it has still managed to beat the consensus EPS, and continues to demonstrate yoy growth Technical Analysis - This is the weekly chart for Alibaba - We can see that it was consolidating in a rising wedge pattern, before breaking out in July 2020. - Due to the Ant Financial IPO cancellation FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), stock prices fell from $320 down to $255. - Elliott Wave counts suggests a further potential downside to $220-230 levels, where it could complete the corrective wave at the gap support - We can also see that prices have never broke down the 150 Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the weekly. - This indicates that the converging point of the 150 SMA and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support at $200 could be considered our last line of support - Thanks to the recent corrective move, however, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been flushed out to neutral levels, from overbought territories - It seems as though the RSI could bounce on the trend line support soon Conclusion Alibaba is a solid company with strong fundamentals and financials, as well as a business model that expands throughout a wide range of areas. It has fallen victim to the restrictions imposed by the Chinese Communist Party recently, but it’s important to understand the role this company plays for the Chinese economy and the world economy. Companies like Alibaba are essentially too big to fall. There are attempts made by governments of various countries such as the US with big tech companies, and South Korea with Samsung Group, to regulate dominant firms. Regardless, none of them have actually succeeded besides a small correction in stock prices driven by FUD. As such, while technical analysis suggests further potential downside, I believe that investors should approach this stock from a buy perspective. If you like this analysis, please make sure to like the post, and follow for more quality content! I would also appreciate it if you could leave a comment below with some original insight.
NYSE:BABALong
by Michael_Wang_Official
10
BABA - 15.21% Potential Profit - Corridor BreakoutClear uptrend Support with a Corridor Breakout forming. Note that we might miss the entry as the price moved to $273.10 pre-market (as we speak) and we are placing a Limit Buy order, rather than chasing momentum. Target price set at a new potential resistance line. - Historical uptrend - RSI + Stoch well above 50 - MACD above Signal. Suggested Entry $267.80 (Limit) Suggested Stop Loss $261.70 Target price $310.48 Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital. This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
NYSE:BABALong
by maschera
1
BABA - 9.19% Potential Profit - Bullish Rectangle BreakoutClear uptrend Support with a Bullish Rectangle formed within. Target price set at a new potential resistance line. - Historical uptrend - RSI + Stoch well above 50 - MACD above Signal. Suggested Entry $266.78 Suggested Stop Loss $259.47 Target price $290.81 Note that I tend to adjust stop losses in order to secure profits early and preserve capital . This means that the target price is going to be achieved as long as there are no strong pullbacks that trigger my new adjusted stop loss.
NYSE:BABALong
by maschera
6
BABA - Alibaba buy zonesHello traders, Description of the analysis: Alibaba support zones ideal for timing long positions (gray). Trade what you understand, trade carefully and sparingly according to the business plan. About me: Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund ($4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades. Jacob
NYSE:BABALong
by Jacob_Kovarik
With China Open For Business, $BABA Is A BuyChina is on its way to recovering from the Wuhan virus and we expect economic activity to pick up. While the USA faces the Chinese virus head on, it's best for investors to focus on plays that won't be affected by what's happening in the US. $BABA will benefit and the stock will head back to where it was trading at before. With Softbank selling some of its position, it also removes an overhang on the stock. On March 10th, Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) reported that its package and meal delivery units are fully staffed at pre-coronavirus levels, "the latest example of how China’s largest corporations are getting back to work after Beijing’s entreaty to safeguard economic growth," Bloomberg writes. Cainiao, meal delivery unit Eli.me and grocery chain Freshippo are all back at full strength, according to a spokesperson. Cainiao, of which BABA owns 60%, boasts a network of millions of delivery people that can handle more than a billion packages daily during peak demand. Last week, Alibaba rival JD.com (NASDAQ:JD) forecast at least 10% revenue growth this quarter, suggesting surprising resilience in online retail. Yesterday, billionaire David Tepper said that he believes the market could go down another 10%-15%. At the moment, he is "nibbling" on tech faves like Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Google (GOOG, GOOGL), Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), and Micron (NASDAQ:MU). As always, trade with caution and good luck to all!
NYSE:BABALong
by InsiderFinancial
2