ALIBABA The fall of a former giant continues.Alibaba (BABA) has been trading within a Channel Down since the July 31 2023 High. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as the basic Resistance while a truly sustainable bullish trend can technically exist only above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Until then every 1D MA50 rejection such as December 28, is a Lower High on the Channel Down and a sell opportunity. Every Lower Low has been greater in decline % terms, the latest was 20.30% so we can see a Lower Low around 62.00 before a rebound, buy we will buy if contact with the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down is made earlier. The Target will be +11.00% from that point.
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Babasignals
BABA Showing Some Bullishness Out of the Buy ZoneChinese stocks have been hurting from China's deflationary economic environment, as well as the Biden administration's restrictive measures for AI chips to China. I believe these factors have caused Chinese stocks to become extremely undervalued.
BABA is currently within my buy zone and is starting to show some bullishness. The price is near the lows of the monthly Bollinger Bands, which is favorable for a long trade setup. The price is also significantly below the EMA ribbon, which is also favorable for opening a long.
Price targets:
The white trendlines are my key resistance levels on the way up, and the EMA ribbon has also been acting as resistance that has pushed BABA's price lower. I think the EMA ribbon will act as a resistance zone for BABA on the way up as well.
BABA NEW WEEKLY LOWHere is a depiction of where BABA currently is relative to Market Structure. The WEEKLY has just confirmed a new weekly gap due the 4H's Gap above previous lower highs creating a HIGH. The current 4h chart closed in one of my most profitable patterns called the Inside Bar showing a consolidation after a powerful move to the upside representing a breather in the market before the next move. Will be looking to ride price up until a weekly high is punched in signaling a reverse in trend to continue with the overall bearish weekly trend.
ALIBABA first Golden Cross in 6 months. Buy signal.Alibaba (BABA) is completing today the first Golden Cross formation since January 23. This is a bullish medium-term pattern and along with the 1D RSI bullish trend on Higher Lows, it will most likely end with a Higher High on a 6 month basis.
As you see, the price recently broke above a Channel Up pattern, so we expect an aggressive rally to the Lower Highs trend-line, similar to those rises of January 2023 and June - July 2022. Our target is 116.00, even though there is potential for a direct hit within the 1 Year Resistance Zone.
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Don't Buy BABA in the short TermTechnical Analysis:
- As you can can see in the chart, Alibaba(BABA) is still correcting in short term wave V in red and it must be completed around $43 when we think smart buyers will appear
- If the price crosses the invalidation level around $121.30 it means that the correction is over or we can have a bounce in WXY Structure in wave IV which will extend more higher before goes lower
- H1 Right Side is Turning Up
- H4 Right Side is Turning Down
Technical Information:
- Wait for the correction in wave ((II)) in black to be completed in order to buy
ALIBABA On the 1D MA50. Closing above = $120.Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA) hit today its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since February 16. In the past year, every time the price closed a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, it soared to at least 120.00 which is the bottom of the 1 Year Resistance Zone.
This time the stock is past a 1D Golden Cross pattern, the first such formation March 18 2019, which is technically bullish. What it needs to avoid is closing below its Higher Lows trend-line, which on September 16 2022 kickstarted a strong sell-off.
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