$BAC Trade AnalysisThe daily chart for BAC shows a downtrend within a broader bullish channel. The recent price action has broken below critical short-term moving averages (8 EMA and 21 EMA) and is currently testing a key support level at S1 (43.05). The chart includes pivot points, trendlines, and dark pool activity, which provide additional context for potential price movements.
Key Observations:
1. Trend Analysis:
Uptrend Channel: The long-term green trendline remains intact, suggesting the broader uptrend is still valid.
Short-Term Downtrend: A lower high (LH) and a series of bearish candles indicate short-term downward momentum. The price is below the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, confirming bearish bias in the short term.
2. Support and Resistance:
Resistance Levels:
Pivot (45.87): The first resistance level, aligning with the 8 EMA.
46.24: A significant resistance level near the 21 EMA.
47.00: A dark pool level that may act as a ceiling if price rebounds strongly.
Support Levels:
S1 (43.05): Immediate support and current price zone.
40.95: Historical support level, providing further downside protection.
S2 (38.60): A critical support zone aligning with dark pool levels and prior lows.
3. Volume Analysis:
Recent volume spikes on red candles suggest distribution, but the bounce on the most recent green candle (December 20) indicates potential accumulation near support at 43.05.
4. Dark Pool Levels:
47.00: A dark pool print from December 5, marking potential institutional resistance.
39.70–39.49: Significant dark pool activity from earlier in the year, which may act as a magnet if price continues lower.
5. Moving Averages:
The price is below both the 8 EMA and 21 EMA, indicating bearish momentum.
A recovery above these moving averages would signal a potential trend reversal.
Trade Setup:
Scenario 1: Bullish Reversal from S1 (43.05)
Trigger: A strong bounce off S1 with price reclaiming the 8 EMA (~45.36) would confirm bullish momentum.
Profit Targets:
45.87 (Pivot): First resistance level and a key target for a short-term trade.
47.00: Dark pool resistance level.
48.08: The upper range of the recent downtrend and potential long-term target.
Stop-Loss: Below 42.50, as a break below S1 invalidates the bullish setup.
Scenario 2: Bearish Breakdown Below S1 (43.05)
Trigger: A daily close below 43.05 with increased volume would signal bearish continuation.
Profit Targets:
40.95: Previous low and historical support.
39.70–39.49: Dark pool levels and a strong institutional support zone.
38.60 (S2): Key pivot support for a deeper downside move.
Stop-Loss: Above 44.50, as a move back above this level would signal recovery.
Scenario 3: Consolidation Before Directional Move
If the price remains range-bound between 43.05 and 45.87, traders can look for breakout trades in either direction. Volume and candlestick patterns will be key indicators.
Final Thoughts:
Short-Term Outlook: Watch for price action at 43.05. A bounce with strong volume would favor a bullish trade, while a breakdown opens the door for further downside.
Long-Term Outlook: The green trendline suggests that the broader uptrend remains valid. A deeper pullback into dark pool levels (~39.50) could offer long-term buying opportunities.
