‘Bank of America my account got 6 figures’ 🎶So one price gap has been filled. One more to go. Let’s see how this goes.
The stock market is still not in the clear. I did long at the dip a few weeks back. If it goes lower I will purchase more. Airlines are important for the USA. They will not let China or other nations take over the aviation industry. The government has to bailout or create some new financial tool. The USA is king of financials.
In my perspective they will buy every share from the airline to prevent China from taking over.
BAC
BAC AnalysisI expect chart patterns in the current market to be statistically less reliable than in a calm market. For that reason, any trading decisions made solely based on support-resistance, harmonics, Elliot waves, and other technical strategies are relatively useless for traders who operate on holding periods between 1 day and 1 week. The mood changes with each day's news, and it is obvious from looking at the chart since the initial crash that the market is less fearful, but very cautious. Be mindful of the current situation. Those who are polluting the internet with their extreme theories of market direction are to be ignored. The SP500 is not going to zero. It is also not going to make the full V-shaped recovery as quickly as it crashed. We have a long road ahead before any certainty can be derived, and so I am planning my trades with that long road in mind.
In this moment, I am looking for stocks that have overreacted along with the rest of the market, but have yet to really feel the effects that the current state of the world will bring. I think that the financial sector fits that mold, so I am mostly trading banks at the moment. The large banks have been piling on reserves for loan losses, indicated by their collective, extremely low EPS for 1Q20. JPM, BAC, WFC, and others are preparing for the inevitable results of the record-shattering unemployment claims due to COVID-19. Banks will most certainly feel a lot of heat in the coming months. I think that they will have between 6 and 12 months of hardship after the COVID situation is managed or eliminated. Therefore, while bank stocks are in a sort of price consolidation on the charts, their recovery may not yet be upon us. All this is to say that I expect a move toward the YTD low if we don't experience a breakthrough in virus treatment, testing, or immunity in the next few weeks. University seniors will be graduating in the next couple of weeks, entering a job market that is, at the moment, several times worse than what the graduates in 08-09 dealt with. Student debt will continue to pressure many of them, Trump will almost certainly have a second term, the Fed is holding up the market with an unprecedented cost to the public, interest rates will be at virtually zero for at least a year into the future, and an already-struggling retail industry is being crushed.
These are just a few of the factors that I think put a lot of downward pressure on bank stocks. Looking at the chart, BAC is trying to make a decision near the bottom of its channel again, and I don't think it will make a decision before market close today. Monday it could open higher with a bounce off the channel, but that will not signal anything about how it will move through the summer. It seems to be running out of steam on its hard climb up, and I expect that it will move to flatten through this month. If the market's uncertainty causes the stock to move laterally for an extended period of time, it will present opportunities for traders to capture short-term swings. The only thing that can send it higher is control over the virus situation, but I still believe the stock would be defeated at the heavily resistant area from $26 to $29, and that will be the story of it for the rest of the year.
BAC. WILL IT GO LOWER?In stocks there’s about 95% probability that price gaps will be closed. The probability for price closing the gap is more real as you move up in time frames from hourly>daily > weekly. This is a daily chart so it’s high probability. This has never failed me. This is just price analysis, hopefully we can see and buy lower prices. Cheers.
Btw look at previous price gaps and look how they’ve all closed in the future.
Rising Wedge - Bearish outlookLooks like we're forming a rising wedge on this chart, with a possible 5th wave in the process.
There's 3 options I see to short depending on risk tolerance.
1. if 5th wave if truncated, Short on rejection
2. IF 5th waves at major resistance Short.
3. Short on completion of Wedge + break of wedge support.
BAC hasn't enjoyed the same V shaped rallies other stocks have. Bullish sentiment is expected to be relatively low given an expectancy in rising debt defaults, related obviously to the rising unemployment rates (now at 26mil+) and businesses that aren't able to generate incomes to cover their liabilities, creating something of a domino effect across the board.
Elliott Wave View: Bank of America (BAC) Resumes LowerElliott Wave view in Bank of America (BAC) suggests the decline from January 15, 2020 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse. Down from January 15 high, wave (1) ended at 32.47 and bounce in wave (2) ended at 35.45. Stock has resumed lower in wave (3) which ended at 17.95. Bounce in wave (4) is proposed complete at 25.35 as a zigzag.
Short term 45 minutes chart below shows the stock ended wave (4) bounce at 25.35. This level is now the short term invalidation level for more downside. Internal of wave (4) unfolded as a zigzag where wave A ended at 23, wave B ended at 19.51, and wave C of (4) ended at 25.35. While below 25.35, wave (5) lower is currently in progress as an impulse, but BAC still needs to break below wave (3) at 17.95 to avoid a double correction.
Down from 25.35, wave 1 ended at 21.09 and wave 2 bounce ended at 23.40. Near term, while rally fails below 25.35, expect Bank of America to extend lower within wave (5). Potential target lower is 123.6 – 161.8% external extension of wave (4) which comes at 13.3 – 16.1.
THE WEEK AHEAD: WFC, C, JPM, BAC EARNINGS; XLF, IWM, XLU; /CLEARNINGS:
And ... we're back into earnings season, which ordinarily kicks off with a bunch of financials. Generally, I don't play these for volatility contraction, since they don't get all that frisky generally, but this environment is a tad different from quarters past, with the 30-day in WFC (45/76), C (44/91), JPM (41/63), and BAC (40/70) all greater than 50% and with the sector exchange-traded fund up there as well (XLF (47/58)).
Rather than play one of the single names, I've pondered what could be done in the sector exchange-traded fund, XLF, instead. Pictured here is a long-dated XLF call diagonal with the back month at the 90 delta in June of next year, the 30 delta-ish front month in June of this one. Ordinarily, I don't go that far out in time with the back month, but June '21 happens to one of the expiries with the lowest implied, so it will be one in which the 90 delta has a lower extrinsic value baked into it compared to expiries of shorter duration. Costing 8.36 at the mid price, it has a break even of 23.36 versus 23.38 spot, a debit paid/spread width ratio of .76, and delta/theta metrics of 58.64/.77, so it's neutral to bullish assumption with plenty of time to reduce cost basis via short call roll. You'd be paying 8.36 for an 11-wide, so have a max profit potential equal to the width of the spread (11.00) and what you paid (8.36) or 2.64 ($264) -- about 31.6% return on capital, assuming max profit.
Naturally, it would have been more awesome were one to have gotten in at the 3/22 17.50 lows.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH 30-DAY IMPLIED GREATER THAN 50%:
XLU (52/52)
XLE (47/75)
SMH (43/57)
GDXJ (41/81)
EWZ (40/74)
EWW (39/58)
SLV (34/50)
XOP (33/100)
USO (32/128)
GDX (28/62)
BROAD MARKET:
IWM (53/54)
TQQQ (47/122)
QQQ (40/42)
SPY (40/41)
EEM (35/40)
EFA (31/35)
FUTURES:
/NG (78/73)
/ZW (69/36)
/GC (41/31)
/ES (40/42)
/SI (34/48)
/CL (32/1555)
/ZC (29/32)
/ZS (21/20)
I reference /CL in the header, primarily due to the background implied, but also due to price action. Some of the volatility may piss out at futures open given a supposed agreement by OPEC+ to cut production by 10 million bpd or so, with the last holdout -- Mexico -- coming on board. If we revist $20/bbl., I will consider adding /CL out-of-the-money short puts.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
What's new ... . We're in a high volatility environment and in backwardation with VIX finishing the week at 41.67.
MUSINGS:
In The IRA: Things aren't looking all that great for me from an acquisition standpoint with the short put ladders I stuck out there for things on my shopping list -- at least for the April "rung" of them. That's okay, since if they expire worthless, I'll keep the premium associated with that rung. Naturally, if I don't pick up jack via assignment, I'll look at re-upping with a rung to replace the expiring worthless if that happens or just let the remaining rungs ride and look for opportunities going forward. A lot can happen in a week ... .
$BAC Wedge + Trending + DivergenceMonthly Chart
Weekly Chart
1. Wedge
We can see in the 1-hour chart of Bank of America that is forming a wedge. We can see the wedge with the purple lines in the price chart.
2. Regular Divergence
In addition we can also see a regular divergence from 6th March to 23 March while the price was falling the indicator in the Rsi was rising.
3. Trend Line
We can see better in the monthly chart that there is a trend line that is forming from about 2008. The next days that will be tested.And the is the second more general trend line forming decades before.
4. Support Line
Also if we look in the monthly chart we will see that there is a main/strong support line that in the next days will be tested again. The 1st support line lies around at 15.24$ and the second at 4.92$
From the first two factors we can see that might be a breakout and form a new uptrend. At the 1 hour chart we will see that the wedge the 1st trend line and the 1st suport line get together in one spot.
So the first scenario will be to test that support at 15$ and form a new uptrend.
The second scenario is to break that support and fall until it lands at the more strong 2nd support and resistance at around 4,5$ and then form a new uptrend from there .
Scenarios
BAC - We are repeating the 2008 dropHello everyone, as we can see we are heading for the same % drop as in 2007, so expect till March - May 2021 the price to be around 5$ - 2.5$ . We do have support at 10$, but giving the fact how the 2007 crysis turned out for BAC with more than 90% drop, right now we are seeing record big drops, I see -90% from all time high price again. Right now we will see temporary retracement to the upside, but it will be fore 1-2 months, then we will drop again. Good luck to everyone, see you next year :D
Bank Of America (BAC) Will Drop Hard (90%+ Crash?!)The chart for Bank Of America (BAC) is looking bad long term, there are many signals pointing to a very strong drop.
The last time this company had a crash, it shredded over 95% of its value... The same might happen again.
Let's take a look at some of the signals:
Let's start by looking at Divergence , you can spot this marked with a light blue line on both the MACD and RSI. These divergences work strongly on conventional assets, they always confirm. We have bearish divergence on both indicators.
I marked a rising wedge in purple which is also bearish. You can expect the asset value to move a bit longer within the wedge before breaking down; if it does. Probabilities are really high...
EMAs are going to be challenged now, this is our main support (22.33).
The RSI is super bearish.
Volume has dropped massive while price moving up.
If you were to use this information to trade, a break and close above 28.45 would be a great stop loss. As for the way down, 13.62 can be your main target and more after/if this level breaks.
...
This one is about to crash really hard... Just like it is happening with Apple, Google, SPX, DJI and the rest.
Thanks a lot for reading.
Namaste.
Elliott Wave View: BAC Looking for More DownsideBank of America (Ticker: BAC) decline from December 27, 2019 high is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Down from December 27 high, wave ((1)) ended at $32.47 and wave ((2)) ended at $35.45. The stock has resumed lower in wave ((3)) and internal of wave ((3)) subdivides in an impulse in lesser degree. Down from $35.45, wave (1) ended at $27.44 and bounce in wave (2) ended at $29.8.
In the chart below, we can see that down from $29.8, wave 1 ended at $27.50 and bounce in wave 2 ended at $28.42 as a Flat. Stock then resumed lower in wave 3 towards $21.75 and bounce in wave 4 ended at $23.49. Finally wave 5 ended at $21.51 which also completed wave (3). Wave (4) rally is now in progress to correct cycle from March 3 high. Potential target for wave (4) in 3 swing comes at $23.7 -$25. Sellers can appear from this area for more downside or 3 waves pullback at least. We don’t like buying the stock. Expect rally in Bank of America to fail in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at 29.80 high stays intact