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US30 event risk - a pivotal week of earnings ahead US Q2 earnings this week – Citi, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth This week we get the US big money centres out with earnings. The focus falls on asset quality, loan growth/contraction, net interest margins (NIM) and any commentary on the recent tightening of broad financial conditions. When we look at the companies included in the US30, there are only two banks (of the 30 constituents) - Goldmans and JP Morgan. However, the US30 holds an incredibly high relationship with the XLF ETF (S&P financial sector ETF), with a 10-day correlation of 93%. With so many of the major financial institutions reporting, assuming this relationship holds up, the US30 should mirror the movement in the US banks. Another important risk for US30 traders this week is how the market reacts to earnings from United Health (UNH - report on 13 October). UNH commands a massive 10% weight on the US30, arguably the biggest weight on the index. UNH is not a stock that CFD traders look at as closely as a say aTesla or Nvidia, given its more defensive price action. It’s one for the range traders, where buying into $460 and shorting into $520 has worked well over the past 12 months. However, given the weighting, US30 traders should be aware of the influence the stock can offer. The market prices an implied move of 2.6% move on the day of UNHs reporting, which is in fitting with the average price change over the past 8 quarterly reporting periods. UNH has seen some large percentage moves over earnings and recall in the last earnings report the stock rallied 7.2% - so a sizeable rally/decline would influence the US30 given the weight. While macro factors such as moves in bond yields, the USD and oil prices will influence the US30, one can see that earnings this week could also play a major role – time to buy the dip, or are we about to see a leg lower in the index?
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by Pepperstone
BAC, Massive Descending-Triangle, Huge BREAKOUT-Expansion Setup!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of BAC. In recent times I have spotted important value stocks within the market that have the potential to emerge with a major transformational reversal and indicate main expansional determinations once the appropriate confirmations have emerged. In this case, I have analyzed BAC with the current ongoing underlying dynamics and with BAC it has to be mentioned BAC is a stock that can unfold its full potential with the current Consumer Demand to appropriately increase further. More and more supply-chain disruptions are repaired again and are recovering now, if this dynamic holds on it sets up a crucial turning in the overall market sentiment. Also, the fact that CPI has declined now for a consecutive period of time builds an important market from where stocks as I have spotted in my watchlist confirm the necessary opportunities. When looking at my chart now, BAC is forming an important structure, firstly as it is still trading within this gigantic ascending-trend channel in which it has the main supports within the lower boundary and already bounced several times within there. Secondly, BAC has the main support levels between the 26.3 and 27.5 area as it is marked in my chart. Thirdly, BAC is already bouncing within the areas and is forming an important support base within this zone. All these factors are building a determined support base from where BAC has considerable potential to emerge with a major reversal and increase the bullish edge. The most important formation in this whole structure is the momentous descending triangle formation. Such a formation is leading to a meaningful substantial expansion reversal in almost all of the cases. Once the whole descending triangle formation has been completed with the final setup as it is marked in my chart this is going to activate the further bullish price-action accelerations into the upper directions and emerge with the major wave-C within the whole wave-count that BAC already established. The completion of the formation also means BAC is going to activate the target zones within the 62.50 and 66.50 areas. Now, taking all these factors into consideration, currently, there is a massive digitization boom with digitization developments increasing within recent times and the growth rates in this sector are accelerating. When BAC moves further with the potential to transform their holdings into the newly developed ecosystem this is going to have a tremendous effect on the actual bullish sentiment prevailing here, especially in combination with the fact that the Consumer Expenditures in this sector are increasing. With such a backing and increase of these factors, this is actually indicating that the price-action accelerates in pace. Once the formation has been completed the next phase targets mentioned will be active. Thank you everybody for watching my idea about BAC. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. "With a prime perspective on stocks history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the stocks future." VP
NYSE:BAC
by VincePrince
6
XLF - Looking Very WeakFinancials charts have completely been rejected by the downscoping trend line. A weekly bear flag looks like it's about to trigger and send price action much lower. Since the daily chart is getting oversold, waiting for bearish consolidation is a wise decision if you are wanting to short. With the rise in yields recently, it's clear the Banks net interest margins are being squeezed. Will we see another banking crisis? The last time we saw the XLF close below the weekly 50MA, we saw a quick 10% drop.
AMEX:XLF
by Trading-Capital
1
BAC is a good buy due to termoil in the markets. At the price of <$30 per share, this is a good opportunity to buy some Bank of America stock. There are major issues with the banking system, mortgage market and bond market. Due to the system we live in, this will lead to destruction of small banks, and the capital will flow into the large established banks. GS is too expensive so BAC offers some more potential. I also prefer BAC because they are a little bit more open to Bitcoin.
NYSE:BACLong
by josip
✅ Daily Market Analysis - WEDNESDAY AUGUST 16, 2023Key News: New Zealand - RBNZ Interest Rate Decision UK - CPI (YoY) (Jul) USA - Building Permits (Jul) USA - Crude Oil Inventories USA - FOMC Meeting Minutes In the previous trading session, European markets grappled with a challenging day, witnessing noteworthy declines that drove them to their lowest levels in over a month. This downward trend was predominantly influenced by growing concerns over the Chinese economy and a noticeable slowdown in internal demand. Likewise, the US markets encountered a similar downturn, feeling the impact of the same prevailing factors. The major stock indices on Wall Street wrapped up the day with substantial losses, driven by an unexpected surge in retail sales figures that stirred worries about the potential for prolonged periods of heightened interest rates. Concurrently, significant US financial institutions saw their shares decline, prompted by a report hinting at the possibility of credit rating downgrades for select lending establishments by Fitch. US Retail Sales As per the latest report from the Commerce Department, retail sales in the previous month exhibited a robust growth of 0.7%, surpassing the projected increase of 0.4%. This data point serves as a testament to the enduring strength of the US economy. In light of this report, traders maintained their expectation for an imminent pause in Federal Reserve rate hikes, with a notable 89% likelihood. Nevertheless, financial analysts underscored investor concerns that interest rates could potentially remain at their current levels for an extended period, defying initial expectations. The brunt of the market sell-off was borne by the banking sector, which faced escalated apprehensions surrounding interest rates. The US Treasury yield curve, characterized by long-term bonds yielding less than short-term debt instruments for over a year, continued to exert pressure. This phenomenon curtails the potential profits that banks can generate from their lending activities. The S&P 500 index marked a significant development as it concluded the trading session below its 50-day moving average for the first time since March. In a similar vein, the Nasdaq index witnessed a decline of 1.14%, concluding at a value of 13,631.05 points. Simultaneously, the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered a decrease of 1.02%, settling at a value of 34,946.39 points. NASDAQ indices daily chart SPX indices daily chart Trading activity on US exchanges displayed a relatively subdued pattern, with a total of 10.1 billion shares changing hands. This number stands in contrast to the average of 10.9 billion shares traded over the previous 20 trading sessions. Following the release of a report hinting at potential downgrades by the ratings agency Fitch, several banks encountered declines in their share prices. Specifically, shares of JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) witnessed a decrease of 2.5%, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) registered a drop of 3.2%, and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) underwent a decline of 2.3%. JPM stocks daily chart BAC stocks daily chart The British pound experienced a notable upswing in its performance during the preceding day, primarily driven by wages data that exceeded initial projections. This encouraging turn of events has ignited discussions within financial circles regarding the potential scenario of the Bank of England considering another rate hike as early as September. The freshly unveiled wage data, unveiled just yesterday, showcased a remarkable surge of 7.8% over the course of the three months culminating in June. While this data has introduced a complex conundrum for the central bank, it also holds the potential to trigger substantial economic repercussions if the Bank of England's policy response is not skillfully calibrated to align with the prevailing conditions. GBP/USD daily chart In the approaching day, the eagerly awaited Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for the UK are set to be revealed. This upcoming release takes on added significance as it marks the incorporation of the recently implemented lower energy price cap. Notably, the anticipated August inflation report is expected to reflect a decrease in price growth, thereby contributing to a broader landscape of subdued inflation.
by FOREXN1
9
WFC setting up a VWAP bounce LONGOn this 4H chart, I see WFC having had a bit trend up and then a retractment through the upper anchored VWAP lines toward the mean running VWAP where I expect a bounce. At present, price action is in a bit of a flat bottom triangle. The ZL MACD supports this impending reversal with bullish divergence in the line cross under a histogram which went red to green. I will take a long trade here with a stop loss under the histogram and a target just below the pivot high in mid July. I will zoom onto a 30 minute time frame to better select an optimal entry on the reversal. I will check banks in general including the ETFs KRE KBE BNKU and DPST.
NYSE:WFCLong
by AwesomeAvani
BANK OF AMERICA is about to start the new 2 year rally.The Bank of America Corporation (BAC) got rejected again on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a level that has been acting as a Resistance since the March 2022 break-down. This has created a Lower Highs trend-line that is the key pivot level now. But before that, let's see how it's been trading on a +10 year basis. As you see on this chart, ever since the November 2011 Low, the stock has been trading within a Fibonacci Channel, with the extensions serving as very accurate Resistance and Support levels. We have seen 1W MA50 rejections after strong corrections in April 2016 and June 2020. Each of those times, the price hit the Buy Zone (green) before rebounding to a Higher High, while the RSI on the 1M time-frame hit the 38.80 Support. The 1M MA100 (red trend-line), which on March 2020 provided Support, acted once more as the long-term Support this March (2023), exactly at the top of the 10 year Buy Zone. As a result, BAC is a buy opportunity, but will only get confirmed when it closes a 1W candle above the Lower Highs trend-line. As far as a long-term target is concerned, the first Higher High on the Fibonacci scale was made on Fib 2.0 (March 2014), the second on Fib 4.0 (March 2018) and the third on Fib 6.0 (January 2022). Investors could hold, based on this sequence, until the 8.0 Fibonacci extension. It is interesting to point out that each Cycle within this Channel has approximately been 4 years and each of the rallies around 2 years, like the one we're currently about to confirm. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NYSE:BACLong
by TradingShot
1
JPM - Rising Trend Channel [MID -TERM]🔹Resistance become support at 144 in NEGATIVE reaction. 🔹POSITIVE volume balance indicates higher volume on rising days. 🔹RSI above 70 indicates strong short-term POSITIVE momentum. 🔹Technically POSITIVE for the medium long term. Chart Pattern; 🔹DT - Double Top | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹DB - Double Bottom | BULLISH | 🟢 🔹HNS - Head & Shoulder | BEARISH | 🔴 🔹REC - Rectangle | 🔵 🔹iHNS - inverse head & Shoulder | BULLISH | 🟢 Verify it first and believe later. WavePoint ❤️
NYSE:JPMLong
by wavepoint99
1
BAC Bank of America Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought BAC here: Then analyzing the options chain of BAC Bank of America Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 30usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-9-15, for a premium of approximately $0.83. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:BACLong
by TopgOptions
1
Bank of America, showing strength and growth...BANK OF AMERICA (BAC) is showing signs of net buying / accumulation at the current levels -- conveying anticipation of the April 18 earnings results. The last December 2022 results beat expectations -- and it looks like the confidence will be the same for this season. SEEDED L at 27.5 TAYOR. ------------------------------------- Here are some fundamental data last quarter 2022: DECEMBER 2022 (DATA) EPS (USD) Expected 0.77 Reported 0.85 Surprise 10.71% Revenue (USD) Expected 24.22B Reported 24.53B Surprise 1.28%
NYSE:BACLong
by JSAL
5
$GS Trade Idea - Bank Stress Test With the Bank Stress Test showing positive results, here's a possible trade gameplan for GS into qEnd provided conditions are met and we have a bullish reaction to GDP + Unemployment numbers in pre-market tomorrow. The path on the 15 min chart looks messy since that's the lowest resolution I can publish, so I've included a 5 min version in the screenshot below. Ideal Gameplan: 1. Price opens above risky area shown on chart and holds above the orange rectangle on the pullback 2. Long 6/30 $325C or $327.5C 3. Can cut some at 10 am if you wish, or hold for the push into 11:30 4. On the first decent pullback after 10 am, grab some $330C "lottos" if you've scaled out Cost Basis from the initial call position 5. By 11:30, price should've made an HH that will only be exceeded near the EOD or on Friday morning (can trim most/all of $330C here if you want) 6. If above conditions are met and price continues to base above $327.50-328 during the afternoon session, can look to re-enter $330C for the late-day push, holding final runners for Friday, but keep in mind there will be theta burn overnight Note: If price opens in the orange box shown, or enters orange box during the initial pullback after open, it's best to wait until the orange box is safely cleared, as there is a chance we backtest the afterhours PA under $320
NYSE:GSLong
by bullspacman
2
BAC rising from support LONGBAC on the daily recently descended from an asymmetrical head and shoulders pattern near to or in the supply zone as indicated by the Luxalgo indicator down into the demand zone in late March and early May for a double bottom. Fundamentally, the banking system has been propped up by the federal central banking mechanisms and the situation seems to have stabilized. DPST and KRE banking ETFs have had some good days of late. On the chart the Luxalgo Echo indicator, a predictive algorithmic tool, suggests that BAC will rise during this summer and then bounced down from the resistance of the trendline of the neck of the asymmetrical H & S. I can easily conclude that BAC is ripe for a long trade. I will take an out of the money call option for DTE 9/20 striking #37.00. I will set the stop loss at 20% - Of the 15 contracts, I will close 2 after each 20% profit level is achieved and expect to make overall 150-250% by mid-August. Because of time decay, I will not carry these open beyond September 1st.
NYSE:BACLong
by AwesomeAvani
BANK OF AMERICA HEAD N SHOULDER TOP The chart posted is that of BAC we had what seems to be a rather classic head n shoulder top so if the over all market is going to hell as I stated in the forecast dec 2021 why does everyone WANT and Need to trade the long side ??? I have lived thru NINE BEAR MARKETS and have traded since 1972 when I was in high school. I have managed funds since 1990 .So if you all seem the need to be compulsive to trade . it sound like a few of you Think you are going to MISS OUT . Relax !! To make $$$ you may miss alot of trades but there is always another day !! I told you the FED is going to reduce the balance sheet if they are to keep the Credibility inflation must break 3.2/3.6 core by year end. Best of trades WAVETIMER
NYSE:BAC
by wavetimer
BAC Bank of America SHORTBAC is shown here on the 15 minute chart. Fundamentally, it is under pressure like many other banks including First Republic. On the chart, price is in a downtrend having bounced from VWAP (redline) in confluence with the blue line of the top of the high volume area of the volume profile. Price is underneath the blackline which is the 210 HMA. Only shorts should be taken underneath that line. The target is the thin red line below which is the bottom of the low volume area. Accordingly, the thin red line is the target while the thin blue line or the VWAP (thick red) are the stop loss levels. This is a very safe trade with an acceptable R:R. My put option @ $ 28.50 for expiration 5/12 gained 68% overnight. I will ride this down and then look for the reversal trade.
NYSE:BACShort
by AwesomeAvani
Banks Bottomed?Back in March, all we could read about was the "Banking Crisis" whether it was written by mainstream financial media or Bitcoin Maxi blogs. Truly, the great end of the US Dollar was upon us finally, right? Well, like all panics, the fear abates and we can now see that said crisis amounted to only 3 banks failing for specific and now well understood reasons. First, the trade. I went with a bottom play "TS Recap" on the Daily of TFC (title picture). I am play the low from March 15th as the line in the sand and stop loss. It goes up from here or it doesn't and I'm out. Pretty straightforward. There was a similar setup that is progressing a bit faster in BAC (Bank of America) but I preferred TFC for the dividend yield. Now, Let's talk Asset Narratives Asset narratives, both positive and negative, come around in different industries from year to year. Now in 2023 we have the "Banking Crisis" that has affected all non-too-big-to-fail banks. What is an "Asset Narrative? The most recent contrarian narrative trade comes to my mind... Energy of 2021. Remember 2021? Electric Vehicles were all the rage, they were going to replace all gas powered vehicles in the very, very near future. The smartest of experts were all telling people to divest from anything oil related. Oil was going the way of the dinosaur! Dirty energy was the most hated asset class. Oil futures even dropped below $0. Oil was FREE it was so devalued! People were GIVING IT AWAY! The comfortable trade of 2021 was to buy Electric Vehicle stocks and IPOs. It may have felt good at the time but does not feel good now to be a bagholder. I gas-lighted myself (pun intended) thinking I was crazy to buy XOM (just read the post title below). My reasoning was sound: oil was still very much necessary to our economy. Oil companies were still in the business of producing it. They clearly had lots of value. Why were they so cheap? It seemed like an obvious trade but almost TOO obvious. It was very uncomfortable to take the trade. Taking risk involves uncertainty and makes us uncomfortable. Early in my trading career I thought that one day I would become so accustomed to taking risk that I would be completely unaffected when putting on a trade. That never happened. Instead, I became comfortable with discomfort. These kinds of narratives come around once a year and in hindsight seem obvious. So now is that narrative for 2023 banking? I think it is. There are a lot of intelligent, reasonable, and well articulated REASONS that banks should be marked down. But that's where real opportunity lies... where is it not apparent.
NYSE:TFCLong
by norok
2