Best Inflation Hedge: Crypto or Banks?I like to challenge the "common wisdom of the crowds" on my channel. Today I did a side by side comparison on two asset classes that according to different wisdoms will appreciate due to inflation and rising rates. The winner Year to Date may surprise a lot of new investors.
BAC
Elliott Wave View: BAC (Bank of America) Wave 5 in ProgressBank of America (BAC) has just made a 12 year high and structure from February 1, 2021 suggests the rally is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Up from February 1, wave 1 ended at 39.97 and wave 2 pullback ended at 36.63. The stock rallies higher again and ended wave 3 at 42.94 as the 45 minutes chart below shows. Pullback in wave 4 completed at 40.78.
Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 41.37 and bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 42.56. Last leg lower wave ((c)) of 4 has completed at 40.70. From there, stock has resumed higher in wave 5. BAC has broken above wave 3 at 42.94 suggesting the next leg higher has started. Up from wave 4, wave (i) ended at 42.48 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 42. Wave (iii) ended at 42.85, wave (iv) ended at 42.57 and wave (v) ended at 42.95. This should complete wave ((i)) of 5 in higher degree.
Wave ((ii)) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from May 13 low before the rally resumes. As far as May 13 low pivot at 40.70 remains intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for more upside.
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Fundamental Friday - BACFundamental Friday (BAC):
Gallacher's Fundamentals:
1. Select historically "Cheap" or "expensive" markets.
- BAC is within uncertainty range level 1.
- Financial sector is cheap, relative to tech. BAC has an 18.19 PE ratio vs 585 PE ratio of TSLA.
- BAC is neither cheap nor expensive relative to rivals in the financial sector (JPM, GS, by RSI).
2. Develop a critical eye for what is "important" fundamental information to a particular market.
- Important fundamental information in the financial sector is the longer-term Treasury yields, which I expect to rise this year. Long inflation.
- Macro trend in Quad 2, excess capital generated will be used to buy back shares.
Get (1) neutral, (2) bullish, or (3) bearish:
- Bullish
Some Warren Buffett Tenets:
Is management rational?
- BAC’s Brian Moynihan expects the bank will increase its dividend and boost its share buybacks once its passes its Fed stress tests. Last month, it announced a $25Bn share buyback plan with its excess cash.
Focus on return on equity, not earnings per share.
- ROE on a rising trend, 7.58% from 6.14% last quarter.
Calculate “owner earnings.”
- Owner Earnings = Net Income + Depreciation, Amortization +/- Other Non-cash charges - Full Capex +/- Changes in Working Capital (Assets – Liabilities or Shareholders Equity)
- 17.1B + 2B – 6.2M + 16.2B = 34.7B/8.7B = $3.99 owner earnings per share.
- Price to owner earnings: Current price = 42.36/3.99 = 10.62, vs. 18.19 PE Ratio (TTM), this is undervalued in the short-mid term.
Look for companies with consistent and high profit margins.
- Profit margin of 0.18 vs 0.1396 historical average (increasing trend).
GLHF
- DPT
$BAC Before earningsBank of America is again near it's all time highs, close to testing again for a breakout. Earnings this week should confirm movement on the strong uptrend that we have seen since March lows. There is a slight divergence on the RSI indicator. The daily timeframe shows a toppish move on the stoch RSI, as well as MACD turning slightly red on the daily. Should BAC fail to breakout of these levels, we could see it test lower support, or even fill the gap put in a few days ago. Ichimoku is still showing a bullish trend at these levels. Looking for a breakout to confirm my 1.618 wave higher analysis.
Bitcoin, Buy, Sell, or Hold? That’s the question?IMO, we are in the most critical days of Bitcoin rally.
We should consider all the possibilities..! Why? Because at the end of the past bullish rallies Bitcoin experienced a massive correction of 83-86%..! What makes it more interesting is that Bitcoin corrected -27 to-35% just in the first month.
At this moment I believe Bitcoin is not either a buy or sell. For those who have it in their portfolio it is a clear hold, but for those who don’t , it is better to watch it for a clear breakout! Which side, up or down?
At this moment, I believe no one can answer the question!
I believe the bearish case is more probable! Why? Because:
Bitcoin with +1.1 Trillion market cap is
- 6th biggest tradable asset after Alphabet
- is bigger than the first 3 biggest banks combined JP Morgan Chase (433B) + Bank of America (306B) + Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (290B):1.029 Trillion
What is your prediction? Upward Or downward Breakout?
It could be interesting for you if you check my Tesla analysis with the same title..!
Moshkelgosha
Stormy days ahead for BanksAs you see in the charts, stocks tend to move in clusters!
Bank of America, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, and KBE(bank ETF) all have made the same price pattern..!
all shows stormy Days coming, if you have banks' stocks, maybe it could be a good time to trim your position..!
Tri Star TopBuy put 38 March 26
I always try to present the charts in a simple comprehensive format to prevent any confusion.
This is just my technical view, neither a fundamental comment,nor a recommendation to trade..!
Please review my track record and calculate the odds for yourself..!
You’re likes and comments encourage me to continue this.
Stay tuned great live stream and quality content videos coming soon..!
Option trading will expose you to high level of risk! Never put more than 5% of your capital in any option ideas!
BAC (NYSE) - Be Carefull for Changing in TrendGreetings
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Analysis
BAC (NYSE) - Be Carefull for Changing in Trend
Bank of America: Best Stock while bond yields are increasing!While the bond yields are going up (cost of borrowing), the sector that would greatly benefit from
news like this is no one else but our good old banking sector. It would be a good risk-management in these
fluctuating days to have some bank stocks in your portfolio. Here are some possible support points for
BAC. We would recommend buying more each time it gets close to one of the support lines!
XLF shooting star top of channel $BAC $WFC $CIT $JPM $XLFtop of channel / ABC or WXY complete from march lows after triangle breakout in late oct/early november. shooting star weekly. please post and correct me but zooming out i think its 5-3-5 ABC for W (2009 low to jan 2018) into an X wave and now completed X within WXY of the X macro..startin Y down to finish macro X.
August 20 $23P on $BAC for me but this thing might take longer than I expect considering W (within macro X of WXY from 09 low) went from jan 2018 - march 2020
Bitcoin downhillLike I said, I'm not a trader, but I'm learning the basics.
There is a lot of dependency between bank of america and bitcoin. There is between DAW and Bitcoin.
There is always a principle in the traders market:
When the stock of BANK of america falls by about 3%, the market will be completely bearish.