Ethereum at a Turning Point: History Repeating?Ethereum is currently at a decisive moment, sitting at a major support level that has historically played a crucial role in determining the market’s direction. The parallels to 2021 are striking. Back then, ETH experienced a deep correction of over 60 percent after reaching its cycle high. However, once it found support in a key liquidity zone, it staged an explosive rally, gaining over 175 percent in just a few months. Now, in 2025, we are seeing an almost identical setup. ETH has once again corrected significantly from its recent highs, dropping nearly 58 percent, and is now testing the same kind of structural support that previously acted as a springboard for a new bull run.
The technicals indicate that this support level is not just any ordinary price zone. It coincides with the 200-week exponential moving average, a historically strong dynamic support level that has often marked the bottom of major corrections. Additionally, this region aligns with a previously established demand zone that saw significant buying interest in the past. The fact that ETH is testing this support right before a major macroeconomic event makes this moment even more critical. On March 19, the Federal Reserve is set to announce its latest interest rate decision, which could have a direct impact on liquidity conditions across all markets, including crypto.
If Ethereum manages to hold this level and bounce, the upside potential could be significant. The first major resistance to overcome would be around 3929, a level that previously acted as a rejection zone during the last cycle. A breakout above that level could open the door for a move towards 4875, which represents a key structural resistance and would put ETH back in a strong bullish trend. A repeat of the 2021 pattern could mean that ETH is on the verge of another parabolic move.
However, the bearish scenario cannot be ignored. If this support fails and ETH breaks below this critical zone, it would be a major warning sign. A breakdown could trigger further downside pressure, potentially leading to a deeper correction and confirming a bearish trend. This could mean that Ethereum enters an extended bear market, with the next significant support levels much lower. The rejection at resistance, followed by a lower high, would suggest that sellers remain in control, and without strong bullish catalysts, a further decline would be the path of least resistance.
Beyond technicals, fundamentals are playing an equally important role. The crypto market has been increasingly correlated with traditional finance, and with the Federal Reserve’s decision just days away, investors are watching closely. If the Fed signals continued monetary tightening or delays interest rate cuts, risk assets like Ethereum could face further downside. On the other hand, a more dovish stance from the Fed could inject fresh liquidity into the market, acting as a catalyst for ETH to reclaim higher levels.
Sentiment in the crypto space is also crucial. On-chain data suggests that long-term holders are still accumulating, which indicates confidence in Ethereum’s long-term value. However, short-term traders remain cautious due to the uncertain macro environment. Open interest in ETH futures has seen a decline, suggesting that many traders are waiting for confirmation before making big moves. This means that volatility could spike significantly once a clear direction is established.
Overall, Ethereum is at a critical juncture. The historical comparison to 2021 suggests that this could be the start of a major recovery, but whether or not history repeats itself depends largely on external factors like the Federal Reserve’s decision and broader market sentiment. If this support holds, ETH could be at the beginning of another strong bull cycle. If it fails, the bearish alternative could become the dominant narrative. The next few days will be crucial in determining which path Ethereum takes.
Baerish
$AAPL - Apple is starting to weaken in this correction!Apple gapped below the 200 day moving average today, and we even saw some baerish follow up during the day. Apple below the 200 day moving average is very significant, happens rarely and if it happens, usually we see a bigger correction then.
We are in a pretty solid channel atm, with decent reactions at the supply and demand side. Should we break that channel though, first watch for the grey box to find support in there, as it is the golden zone (.382 - .618) from Covid low to ATH Fibonacci.
IF that box should be broken as well, we are poised for that huge gap close at around 100$, Apple has ALOT of gaps in it's chart, but i think that gap is so big, and marks the break of 100$ and got never backtestet, since we broke out back then, wouldn't be weird at all, if the market should decide to backtest that. .786 retrace, which would be considered deep value would correlate to pre covid ATH.
Watch this chart guys, this is probably the indicator, of what we can expect from the broad market, we need Apple above 200 day EMA, or things might get really dicey.
Stay safe !!
Wallstreets wants the Q's weekly EMA 200 again?Currently we are inmiddle of one of the most chaotic times, and stockmarket is starting to price in some serious fears into the market.
Just eventually be prepared, that wallstreet might be aiming for some real deep value here.
Btw. currently we buy the 100 week average price on nasdaq, not the worst spot to maybe start a fresh longterm depot, DCAing on the way down to maybe the weekly 200 might be somewhat of a chance with long horizon.
Stay safe guys, trade setups coming soon again, busy times..
Is the crypto market creating a bulltrap? #bitcoin #ethereumCrypto TOTAL market cap fell back into the price channel once more, after the current situtaion in ukraine keeps the markets on it's heels.
Also that short term demand line got broken as well.
Depending on how reliable the volume is in the TOTAL chart, the volume in the selloff was pretty huge as well.
We might see some violent moves in the crypto market soon, either to the up- or downside.
It mostly will depend on how the situation in the ukraine turns out, as it seems that is the biggest concern markets have at the moment.
Do NOT forget about the FED though, they probably might get jealous with all the attention the ukraine situation gets, so they might drop something too soon :D
Most importantly, stay calm and don't overreact to the current situation and keep your spirits up!
Good luck with your trading!
$APPS Digital Turbine at critical levelsDigital Turbine ($APPS) got smashed down right on the 200 day moving average, after earnings.
We have kind of a triple support here, the 100EMA daily, the 200SMA daily and the 50retrace from the last run.
If this level holds for a support, we might see a sharp rallye of this levels, $APPS is a very strong performer, when bids are coming in
If $APPS cant hold this level, watch for 65$ as support.
NEXO - Whats possible in may?Hey fellow Nexonians
I`m back with another Nexo markup after the last one played out great so far! Its really nice to see how Nexo succeed the last few weeks, i`m really happy that we managed to break the last big resistance without any big announcements and we also managed to surive the big BTC dip better than mpost of the ALTs, thats a great sign for Nexos future and it really shows the strength of the project.
The next bigger resistance is around 3.80$. We also had a double top there and went down to the support at 2.80$ but recovered pretty fast, which also is a very strong sign. The announcements in the next weeks will lead the price of Nexo because of that its really hard to say where and when we will go at diffrent price levels.
So for that i made 3 possibilities:
Bullish scenario 1 (green path line):
We will break the resistance (blue line) at the first attempt and going directly to the upper trend line (white), after that we might see a retest to our last support (resistance before) at around 3.80$. If that holds we could break the upper trendline, retest it and going to 5$ or more.
Bullish scenario 2:
We will not break the resistance at the first attempt and going back to the bottom trend line (white), if that hold we trying the next move to break the resistance and when we broke it we will adjust to the green line like in bullish scenario 1.
Bearish scenario:
I don`t like it either but we have to consider this scenario. Besides the double top which is bearish we also have a bearish divergence which is not good, maybe we can ignore it because we have a really big bullish attitude but if the case will be a bearish movement i think we could break the bottom trend line going back to the support at around 2.80$, retest the bottom trendline and if we dont break that again i think we go down to the resistance at around 1.80$.
Like i said the next announcemts will have a big impact on the chart and could lead to a parabolic breakout so maybe none of this scenarios will happen and we just go up or down, which is very unlikely IMO. Also the bearish scenario is unlikely becsause of the movements we had before on this way up and IMO we are still in a bulltrend so i don`t think that will really happen, but we still have to consider it!
Please tell me your scenario of this markup or some other ideas that could happen.
If you have some question just ask and check out my other Nexo markups which one of them is still running.