Black Friday saleUp to 70% OFF

Bailey

UK inflation expected to jump to 2.2%The British pound is steady on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP is trading at 1.2678 at the time of writing, unchanged on the day. On Monday, the pound ended a six-day slide, during which the currency lost 2.8%. The Bank of England has done an excellent job slashing inflation, which was in double digits for much of 2023. The September inflation report was a milestone as inflation eased to 1.7%, the first time it was below the BoE target of 2% since April 2021. Still, the BoE is under no illusions that the tenacious battle against inflation is over. Services inflation has fallen significantly but is running at 4.9%, more than double the target. The Trump election win has raised deep concerns that Trump’s trade policy promises, with threats of tariffs on US trading partners, could lead to higher global inflation. The BoE lower rates by 25 basis points on Nov. 7, marking the second rate cut in the current easing cycle. The September inflation report contributed to the decision to lower rates at that meeting and Wednesday’s inflation release will be closely monitored by the BoE, with the following inflation report coming out on Dec. 18, just one day before the BOE’s next rate announcement. BoE Governor Bailey said in a report to the House of Commons Treasury select committee that the BoE needed to keep a close eye on services inflation, which remained above a level that was compatible with “on target inflation”. Bailey also stated that he favored a gradual approach to cutting rates in order for the central bank to assess the effects of the government’s recent budget on growth and inflation. The BoE’s November forecasts indicate that the budget will result in higher growth and inflation in the near term, which could slow the pace of rate cuts. GBP/USD Technical There is resistance at 1.2707 and 1.2736 1.2629 and 1.2658 are the next support levels
by OANDA
Pound shows little reaction as BoE holds ratesThe British pound is showing limited movement on Thursday. GBP/USD is up 0.15%, trading at 1.2515 in the North American session at the time of writing. The Bank of England kept the cash rate unchanged at 5.25% for a sixth straight time in a widely expected move. The British pound dropped slightly after the announcement but then recovered. The breakdown of the vote by the nine members of the MPC was noteworthy, as two members voted for a 0.25% cut, with seven voting to hold rates. At the April meeting, the vote was eight members in favor of a hold and one voting to cut rates by 0.25%. The meeting minutes made reference to the split vote and also noted a “range of views” among MPC members over inflation risks. Governor Bailey still has a solid majority but if additional MPC members veer away from Bailey’s stance, it will complicate his job and could affect his credibility. The markets were hoping that the BoE would use today’s meeting to signal a rate cut in June, much in the way that the European Central Bank essentially confirmed a June rate cut at its April meeting. Bailey said that “a change in the bank rate in June has neither been ruled out or a fait accompli”. Bailey also stated that the BOE could start to cut before the Federal Reserve, which has delayed plans to lower rates due to rising inflation in the US. The BoE would prefer to have the Fed move first, otherwise a BoE rate cut will hurt the British pound which could result in higher inflation. The Fed has put the brakes on plans to lower rates as inflation as proved stickier than expected. Fed members have said that monetary policy needs to remain restrictive and Boston Fed president Susan Collins said on Wednesday that inflation will take more time to fall than expected and added “there is no pre-set path for policy”. The Fed has been pouring cold water on rate cut expectations although the markets still expect two rate cuts before the end of the year. GBP/USD dropped below support at 1.2468 and put pressure on support at 1.2440 1.2497 and 1.2525 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD climbs after Bailey’s dovish commentsThe British pound is higher on Tuesday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2650, up 0.43%. With little else on the calendar today, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is front and center. Bailey testified earlier before Parliament’s Treasury Committee and was surprisingly open about possible rate cuts later this year. Bailey did not push back against market expectations and said that the BoE could cut rates even if inflation remained about the 2% target. Up to this point, Bailey has pushed back against market expectations of a rate cut and today’s comments could signal a major pivot in the Bank’s rate policy. Bailey said that the market curve, which is projecting rate cuts, was “not unreasonable”. The BoE has kept rates unchanged since August and there is pressure on the central bank to provide some relief to households and businesses and lower rates. Bailey’s dovish comments to lawmakers could be an attempt to put a positive spin on the weak UK economy, especially after last week's GDP report indicated that the UK economy tipped into a recession in the second half of 2023. Bailey told lawmakers that the data indicated that this was a “very weak recession” and that here were “distinct signs of an upturn”. Still, Bailey’s acknowledgment that rate cuts may be coming is a significant pivot and market pricing on interest rate cuts was brought forward after Bailey’s testimony. Currently, the markets are predicting a first rate cut in August, with two more cuts before the end of the year. GBP/USD tested resistance at 1.2607 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 1.2679 1.2607 and 1.2530 are providing support
by OANDA
British pound shrugs as Construction PMI misses estimateThe British pound is showing limited movement on Wednesday. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2582 in the North American session, down 0.10%. The UK Construction PMI ticked lower to 45.5 in November, compared to 45.6 in October and shy of the consensus estimate of 46.3. The construction sector has been in contraction for most of the year and the November print marked a third straight month in contraction. The weak housing market has resulted in a decrease in house building and chilled activity in the construction industry. There was better news from the UK Services PMI on Tuesday, which was revised higher to 50.9 in November, up from the preliminary estimate of 50.5. The PMI accelerated from the October print of 49.5 and indicated expansion for the first time in four months, with a reading above the 50 level which separates contraction from expansion. The Bank of England has held rates at 5.0% since August, leading to growing speculation that the BoE is done with rate hikes. This has led to expectations of rate cuts in 2024, but Governor Bailey pushed back against such expectations today, stating that interest rates would need to stay at current levels for an "extended period to bring inflation back to target on a sustained basis". This was a very clear message that the central bank plans to stick with the "table mountain" approach (higher for longer) and is not considering rate cuts. Inflation fell to 4.6% in October, a sharp drop from the 6.7% gain in decline. Still, that is more than double the 2% target and the BoE is unlikely to trim rates until inflation is significantly lower. In the US, the ADP employment report showed little change in the November report. ADP is not a very reliable indicator for job growth but is nonetheless closely monitored as it precedes nonfarm payrolls by just two days. ADP eased to 103,000 in November, slightly lower than the downwardly revised 106,000 in October and well off the consensus estimate of 130,000. Nonfarm payrolls is expected to rise to 185,000 in November, up from 150,000 in October. There is resistance at 1.2624 and 1.2678 1.2536 and 1.2482 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD rises after Bailey's hawkish remarksThe British pound continues to rally on Tuesday after recording back-to-back winning days. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2544, up 0.33%. Earlier, the pound touched a high of 1.2559, its highest level since September 6th. Bank of England Governor Bailey testified before the Parliament's Treasury Committee earlier today. Bailey had a clear message for the markets, warning that they were underestimating inflation and "putting too much weight" on the fact that headline inflation is in decline. Headline CPI dropped to 4.6% in October, down sharply from 6.7% in September. However, much of that slide is due to falling energy prices. The BoE is more concerned with core CPI and services prices which remain stubbornly high - core CPI dropped from 6.1% to 5.7% in October. With the battle against inflation clearly not over, Bailey is pushing back hard against market speculation of a rate cut in mid-2024 and has said that cuts remain a long way off. The BoE is still concerned about inflation risks, such as the Israel-Hamas war and a possible spike in energy or food costs. The markets, which have priced in three rate cuts in 2024, are focused on the poor economic outlook and the risk of a recession, which should dampen any appetite in the BoE to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the November meeting later today. At the meeting, the Fed maintained rates at 5.25%-5.50% for a second straight time and the markets are confident that the Fed is done with tightening and will trim rates in mid-2024. However, the Fed is in no mood to talk rate cuts, with inflation still well above the 2% target. At the meeting, Powell sounded hawkish, saying that inflation was still too high and that the Fed was prepared to raise rates if necessary. The minutes will likely bear a  similar hawkish message and that could provide a boost to the US dollar. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2476. Above, there is resistance at 1.2575 1.2394 and 1.2312 are the next support levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD calm ahead of UK GDPThe UK economy has been struggling and Friday's GDP is expected to indicate negative growth, with a market consensus of -0.1% q/q for the third quarter. In Q2, GDP showed a small gain of 0.2%. August GDP is expected at 0.0% m/m, after a 0.2% gain in September. A soft GDP report will raise speculation about a recession and could weigh on the pound. Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill appeared to backtrack earlier today after saying on Wednesday that market pricing of a rate cut in August 2024 was "not totally unreasonable". Pill stated on Thursday that the BoE expected to maintain restrictive rates for an extended period, but would not make any promises. On Wednesday, Governor Bailey dismissed the possibility of rate cuts in the short term, and Pill may have wanted to put to rest any speculation that his remarks contradicted Bailey's comments. The BoE maintained rates at 5.25% last week and holds its next meeting on 14 December. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell didn't discuss monetary policy in public remarks on Wednesday, and the markets will again be looking for some hints about monetary policy when Powell speaks later in the day. Earlier this week, two Fed members sounded hawkish about inflation. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed President Harker said he expected rates to stay higher for longer and there were no signs that the Fed would trim rates in the near term. This followed Dallas Fed President Logan, who said that inflation remains too high and looks to be trending towards 3% rather than the Fed's 2% inflation target. Logan warned that the Fed would have to maintain tight financial conditions in order to bring inflation back to target. 1.2287 is a weak resistance line. Above, there is resistance at 1.2340 There is support at 1.2214 and 1.2175
by OANDA
British pound gets lift as Fed and BoE pausesThe British pound has posted strong gains on Thursday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2216, up 0.54%. Bank of England pauses The Bank of England voted to maintain interest rates at 5.25% at today's meeting. The pauses follow 14 straight rate increases in the current tightening cycle which began in December 2021. The move indicates that the MPC is sticking to the "Table Mountain" approach, which is essentially a "higher for longer" stance that keeps rates at elevated levels until the BoE is confident that inflation will fall back to the 2% target. The MPC vote was 6-3, with the majority favoring a pause and three members voting to hike rates by a quarter-point. At the September meeting, the vote to pause was 5-4. The division within the MPC indicates that members remain divided over policy, which will make it difficult for Governor Bailey to present a clear path moving forward. The BoE revised inflation projections slightly higher and the statement noted that the BoE stood ready to raise rates if it sees "more persistent inflationary pressures". The markets are hoping that the back-to-back pauses mark the end of the current rate-tightening cycle, but rate cuts aren't expected until late in 2024. Governor Bailey said after the meeting that higher interest rates had pushed inflation lower but it was "much too early to be thinking about rate cuts." US dollar dips after Fed pause The Federal Reserve held rates for a second straight time on Wednesday. The Fed reiterated that rate hikes remained on the table, but acknowledged that "tighter financial and credit conditions" were weighing on inflation. This was likely a reference to the recent rise in US Treasuries, which has increased borrowing costs and could push inflation lower without the Fed having to raise rates. If Powell was trying to sound hawkish, the markets weren't buying it. Future markets have priced in another pause in December and expectations are that the Fed is done with hiking, despite Powell's assertion to the contrary. The US dollar is down against all of the majors and US stock markets were strongly higher on Wednesday. . GBP/USD Technical GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2175. Above, there is resistance at 1.2251 There is support at 1.2068 and 1.2032
by OANDA
GBP/USD punches above 1.25, UK job report nextThe British pound has started the week with strong gains. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2537, up 0.61%. The pound has been on a nasty slide, falling as much as 300 basis points since August 31st. The volatility could continue for the pound on Tuesday, with the release of key employment data. The labour market is showing signs of slowing down and the economy is expected to have shed 185,000 jobs in the three months to July on top of the loss of 66,000 a month earlier. If the consensus is within expectations, it would mark a massive job loss and would support the BoE taking a pause at next week's rate meeting.  At the same time, wage growth remains high, which is driving inflation. Average earnings including bonuses are expected to remain unchanged at 8.2% in the three months to July. The June reading was the highest since July 2021, as employers are in urgent need of workers. The Bank of England has been non-committal about what it will do at next week's meeting, although Governor Bailey said last week that the BoE was "much nearer" to ending the current tightening cycle. Bailey also said that the BoE might have to raise rates further due to persistently high inflation. Inflation has been falling but has been stickier than expected.  Bailey may be trying to calm the markets with the message that rate hikes could end soon, while keeping further increases on the table, given that inflation remains above the Bank's 2% target.  GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2519. Above, there is resistance at 1.2592  There is support at 1.2441 and 1.2395
by OANDA
GBP/USD extends losses after weak housing dataThe British pound has extended its losses on Thursday. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2472, down 0.28%. Earlier, the pound touched a low of 1.2445, its lowest level since June 8th. The pound has been unable to find its footing and has posted five losing sessions in the past six, falling 250 basis points during that span. UK house prices continue to fall and posted a decline of 1.9% in August, the steepest drop since November 2022, according to the Halifax Bank of Scotland. The Halifax report noted that house prices have been resilient this year in the face of rising interest rates, but the lag effect of rate hikes may be making itself felt through higher mortgage costs. This week's UK PMI releases highlighted the weakness of the UK economy and have pushed the wobbly pound lower. The Services PMI for August was revised higher to 49.5 from 48.7, following a July reading of 51.5 points. This marked the first decline in services business activity since January. This was followed by the Construction PMI, which decelerated and barely remained in expansion territory at 50.8, down from 51.7 in July. The manufacturing sector has been woeful, and last week's PMI dipped to 43.0 in August, down from 45.3 in July. With the struggling UK economy as the background, Governor Bailey said on Wednesday that it was "much nearer" to ending the current tightening cycle, but added that the BoE might have to raise rates further due to persistently high inflation. Bailey remained non-committal about the September 21st meeting, but the markets are confident that the Bank will deliver a quarter-point hike, with a probability of 82%. GBP/USD pushed tested support at 1.2449 earlier. Below, there is support at 1.2335   There is resistance at 1.2519 and 1.2633
by OANDA
GBP/USD rebounds on strong UK job numbers, US inflation dropsThe British pound has pushed higher today, courtesy of a strong employment report. In the North American session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2592, up 0.64%. The UK labour market remains robust, and today's employment numbers were higher than expected.  The economy created 250,000 jobs, up from 182,000 crushing the consensus of 162,000. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.8%, down from 4.0% and below the consensus of 4.0%. As well, average earnings including bonuses jumped to 6.5%, above 6.1%, which was also the consensus. The hot numbers will be a major disappointment for the Bank of England, which was expecting the labour market to show signs of cooling off after 12 straight rate hikes. The jump in wages may pose the biggest concern for the BoE, as high wage growth is a key driver of inflation, which remains very high at 8.7%.  Governor Bailey testifies today before the House of Lords Economic Affairs Committee, and the committee members are likely to grill Bailey on the latest job data. US inflation has been heading lower and the trend continued today. Headline CPI for May fell from 4.9% to 4.0%, just beating the consensus of 4.1%. The core rate dipped from 5.5% to 5.3%, as expected. The Fed's tightening policy has succeeded in pushing inflation lower, but the question is whether the Fed feels that inflation is dropping fast enough. Today's inflation data has the markets buying all into a pause at Wednesday's Fed meeting. The probability of a pause has soared to 99% according to CME's FedWatch, compared to 75% prior to the inflation release. There are Fed members who favour more rate hikes and the expected non-move on Wednesday could be a "hawkish skip" in which the Fed signals that it is taking a breather but more rate hikes are coming. There is resistance at 1.2657 and 1.2734 1.2513 and 1.2436 are providing support
by OANDA
GBP/USD drifting lower ahead of UK inflationGBP/USD is trading quietly at 1.2423, down 0.11% on the day. UK inflation has been a thorn in the side of the Bank of England for months and is still above 10%. The UK releases the April inflation report on Wednesday and relief may finally have arrived. Headline CPI is expected to fall from 10.1% all the way to 8.3% y/y. That would be welcome news, but core CPI, which is a better gauge of inflation trends, is projected to remain unchanged at 6.2% y/y. Bank of England Governor Bailey reiterated today in testimony before the Treasury Select Committee that inflation has turned the corner, and we'll know if he's correct on Wednesday. Even if inflation surprises to the downside, it will be miles higher than the 2% target which Bailey has pledged to reach. That means that more rate hikes are likely until both headline and core inflation show rapid declines. Bailey received some good news from the International Monetary Fund, which revised upwards its growth forecast for 2023 from -0.3% to +0.4%. This means that the UK economy, while still struggling, will avoid a recession. The IMF projected that UK inflation would fall to around 5% by the end of the year and drop to the 2% target by the middle of 2025. The US dollar is higher against most of the majors today, as investors remain concerned about the US debt ceiling standoff. The Democrats and Republicans continue to negotiate, with a June 1st deadline just a week away. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury notes has risen to 3.75%, its highest level since March. This has given a boost to the US dollar and yields could continue to push higher the closer we get to the deadline without a deal. The United States government has never defaulted on its debt, and a deal is likely to be hammered out before the deadline. There is support at 1.2307 and 1.2221 1.2375 and 1.2461 are the next resistance levels
by OANDA
GBP/USD flat as UK GDP a mixed bagGBP/USD is trading at 1.2517 in Europe, almost unchanged. In the UK, GDP declined by 0.3% in March m/m, below the 0.1% estimate and the February reading of 0.0%. Still, the economy managed to gain 0.1% in the first quarter, unchanged from Q4 2022 and matching the estimate. There was no surprise as the Bank of England raised rates by 25 basis points, bringing the cash rate to 4.50%, its highest since 2008. This marked the twelfth consecutive hike in the current rate-tightening cycle, underscoring the BoE's pledge to curb hot inflation. Governor Bailey said after the rate announcement that Bank would "stay the course to make sure that inflation falls all the way back to the 2% target". Nobody is expecting that the road to 2% will be easy, with inflation currently in double digits. The BoE remains optimistic that inflation will fall rapidly during the year and will fall to 5% by the end of the year. In February, the BOE predicted 4% inflation by the end of the year. This seems like a tall order but is certainly possible if the rate hikes make themselves felt and cool the economy. There have been constant concerns that the BoE's aggressive rate policy would lead to a recession, and six months ago, the BoE had projected a recession. Bailey reversed course yesterday, saying that the drop in energy prices and stronger economic growth meant that GDP would expand by a weak 0.25% in 2023, versus the 0.5% contraction in the previous forecast. In the US, the economy is showing signs of cooling and high interest rates are expected to dampen the robust labour market. Unemployment claims surprised on the upside on Thursday, rising from 245,000 to 264,000, well above the estimate of 242,000. This is just one weekly report, but it's sure to raise speculation that the labour market is showing cracks. The US wraps up the week with UoM Consumer Confidence, which is pointing to a rather sour US consumer. The indicator fell to 63.5 in April and is expected to ease to 63.0 in May. Weak consumer confidence can translate into a decrease in consumer spending, a key driver of economic growth. GBP/USD is putting pressure on support at 1.2495. The next support level is 1.2366 1.2573 and 1.2676 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
GBP/USD - Will BoE's Bailey shake up the British pound?The British pound is trading quietly on Monday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 122.49, up 0.15%. The pound has looked sharp of late, and last it touched a high of 1.2343, its highest level since late January. In the UK, there are no tier-1 releases this week, but that doesn't mean it will be a quiet week for the pound. Investors will be listening closely as BoE Governor Bailey speaks at public engagements today and on Tuesday. The latter should be especially interesting, as Bailey will testify before the Treasury Select Committee about the Silicon Valley collapse. Bailey to testify on SVB collapse Bailey has sounded surprisingly optimistic, given that inflation remains in double digits despite the BoE raising rates 11 consecutive times. After the 25-bp rate hike earlier this month, Bailey said that he expected inflation to fall "quite rapidly" in the next few months. On Friday, Bailey said that the prospects for growth were better and there was a "pretty strong likelihood" that the country would avoid a recession this year. I'm not at all sure that lawmakers share the Governor's optimism, and they will likely grill Bailey on the Bank's rate policy, which has failed to reign in high inflation. Sticky inflation is not the only headache that Bailey needs to deal with. The banking crisis has caused stress in the financial markets, and investors remain concerned about the stability of the banking sector. Authorities in Switzerland and the US have acted quickly and decisively, which has helped calm down the markets. President Biden and Treasury Secretary Yellen have said that the banking system is safe, and on Friday, the Financial Stability Oversight Council, a group of financial regulators, said that the US banking system remains "sound and resilient". The stresses on the banking system are being closely watched by central banks, which are fearful of the contagion spreading as well as a credit crunch, which could slow economic growth. ECB President Lagarde said last week that the bank crisis could help lower inflation, and UK lawmakers might ask Bailey if the crisis could dampen inflation in the UK. GBP/USD is testing resistance at 1.2248. The next resistance line is 1.2341 There is support at 1.2152 and 1.2071
by OANDA
GBP/USD punches past 1.21, Bailey up nextThe British pound is in positive territory on Wednesday. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2107, up 0.47%. The pound is recovering from a nasty slide of almost 400 points, in which it dropped below the 1.20 line for the first time since Jan. 23. The equity markets were nervous ahead of Fed Chair Powell's remarks at an event in Washington on Tuesday. There was concern that Powell would push back against the recent rally and deliver a hawkish message, especially after the sizzling nonfarm employment report last week. Powell decided not to chastise the markets and essentially reiterated what we heard at last week's meeting. That message is that inflation is moving lower but needs to fall much further and further rate hikes are likely needed. Powell has said more than once that the Fed policy will not be swayed by one or two economic reports, and he held true to that view by not shifting his stance due to the hot employment release. Equity markets responded positively to Powell's message while the US dollar was slightly lower against most of the majors. How much further will the Fed tighten? The markets have revised upwards their forecast for the terminal rate to 5.1%, up from below 5% before the NFP report. Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said on Tuesday that he expects rates to peak at 5.4%, and a Citigroup note warned that rates could go as high as 6%. The markets are still expecting a rate cut late in the year, despite Powell stating at the FOMC meeting that there were no plans to lower rates. There are no releases out of the UK today. BoE Governor Bailey will be in the spotlight on Thursday, as he testifies at the Treasury Committee Hearings. The BoE raised rates by 0.50% last week and the markets will be all ears, looking for clues as to what the central bank has planned for the next meeting on March 23. 1.1958 and 1.1804 are providing support There is resistance at 1.2035 and 1.2173
by OANDA
ridethepig | GBP for the Yearly Close📌 @ridethepig GBP FX Commentary for the Yearly Close Here I will start by presenting the following two diagrams: The safety of the Pound turns out to be rather deceptive with a Johnson cabinet which is becoming increasingly weak. And once more, surprise surprise the reason no-deal brexit is being blocked after Biden blockades is a sufficient explanation of the 'rescue' attempt from globalism. So the truth seems to come from the following facts; A lot of Brexit depended on the Trump protection. Without it Johnson is hanging and must scramble back to the EU for security. We can argue about the MT and LT impacts of Brexit but the ST includes a loss of initial market access which is unfavourable for GBP anyway. The flow is clearly balanced towards the downside, despite the dollar becoming quite weak and resistance looks overprotected. We will dig deeper and more frequently into the macro implications again in master praxis to track the inner flows. I will aim to close quite a few more of the original technical maps before we dissect the whys and hows of its worth. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
Portfolio: Long EURGBPI am going long EURGBP at 86.00 with a stop loss at 85.20 and a target of 88.60 using 2% of capital. I have already articulated in both the latest chart packs that we are seeing pressure on USD and US10Y. This is a good example for us to use to highlight the slightly more cautious tone in GBP. This selloff looks like it has run out of steam around 0.853x and should begin accelerating towards 2021 highs at 0.922x once we break the channel resistance ahead.
Long
by ridethepig
3
ridethepig | EURGBP for ECB📌 ridethepig | EURGBP for ECB Now that we are trading back at the lows in the range in EURGBP, the game is roughly level going into ECB today and we can begin to look for positions once more. In a situation which is very similar to the previous flow that we played from the pivot in December. Continuing to build EUR exposure at 0.885x and looking for ECB & BOE to start diverging in expectations from today onwards. BOE are going to play the whole -ve rate endgame with wonderful precision and genuine artistry. Pound devaluation is the way to go in my opinion. A quick recap of ECB expectations for today: > Global inflation is starting to show signs of creeping higher ( see the explanation ) so expecting Lagarde to be slightly bullish EUR on inflation , neutral on growth, no changes in rates and the usual 'watching the currency closely'. Looking to make use of the 0.885x lows for a move back towards our 0.900x pivot and 0.922x highs. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
15
ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 Another early breakfast for Pound sellers, brexit occupies the sentiment throne and optimism has clearly vacated! Pound now has its eye on the breakdown as expected since yesterday and even a wishy washy deal will be a sell in the short-term. Johnson and VDL taking it to the wires will turn out to be the obstruction for another move lower will be difficult to defend. With 1.360x holding in fine style and shorts starting to enter with volume, quite heart-rendering.... Stay short GBPUSD looking for1.346x, 1.328x and 1.313x with invalidation above 1.372x; and long EURGBP above the 0.900x handle with main targets 0.92xx and 1.00x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBPThe exchanging combination between Euro and British Pound continues: Diagram 1 Here we are dealing with the capture of the lows, when we successfully trapped our opponent at 0.830 live together . All the pound buyers are having to face up to the disappointment that the said Oven ready deal is cheerfully the most damaging attack on the UK economy. In this position, a simple loading on a pullback towards 0.915x will win the swing. Buyers have their eyes on 0.989x as worthy of interest, it would not be completely farfetched to see a test of parity if (when) there is no-deal. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.14EURGBP finding a bid from 0.900x as widely expected since earlier in the month. Here actively adding longs on the pullback for a move towards 0.915x highs. Little Britain are still nowhere near out of the woods yet with the 'oven ready’ Brexit still to come later this year. For those wondering why not Cable? It’s very tough to time a bottom in the dollar with the artificial devaluation underway, flows will eventually exhaust hence recommending caution in GBPUSD. My preferred vehicle for expressing a weaker GBP and profiting from the economic bondage is EURGBP. On the technical side, those with a background in waves will know we are preparing for an impulsive wave targeting the 0.908x and 0.914x minimum flow. Eyes on the close today, a lot of talk making the rounds of a pound clearout. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
6
ridethepig | GBPCAD Market Commentary 2020.07.24⚡️ GBPCAD Fast Flows Here we are trading the breakdown in GBPCAD, with the possible intention of adding on momentum. The question is whether Seller's position is strong enough to put up with such a hammer? Possible similar moves to the previous crash which we traded live: By losing yesterday's lows in GBPCAD, buyers defeat will be seen and the combination of a minimum ABC sequence follows. Tracking 1.708x => 1.689x as the combination blow. But we can of course take it leisurely, assuming the breakdown occurs the flows will be so strong that we need have no anxiety of continuing to add size on. This is because we are able to avoid with a cheeky grin all of our unaware opponents, no matter the reply. Strong and decisive... but so clean and simple. One of my favourite moves. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.07.22🔸 An 'ingenious' saving move from Europe and finally they are able to get debt mutualisation through. It will be very bullish for EURUSD in the Medium and Long term horizons, although the ST will become a lot more cloudy via Covid as we enter into the Autumn / Winter for the Northern Hemisphere. I prefer to play EUR on the crosses and vs. GBP is a no-brainer considering that no-deal brexit is still to come and counter any short-lived GBP strength. I am fortunate enough to be dealing with an audience who can take a hint and understand when not to believe politicians. It went: Next came: And now we are entering into a whole game, because EURGBP is a good example of how even in FX both sides can align to the same direction and define the central strategy. Here the following line remains that Brexit is giving up competitiveness and market access (at least in the Short-term we can agree whatever your view is on the matter) which opens up the need for currency devaluation. As long as the UK side makes soft, it makes it difficult to build a constructive view on GBP. The latest ‘track and trace’ systems entering into the picture will weigh heavy on consumer confidence and ensure GBP will remain soft. Actively tracking the same loading zones with 0.905x to add longs in EURGBP and 1.270x to load shorts in GBPUSD. A previous example was last year with the elections, but this is no less imaginative. In a situation where both fundamental sides align, EURGBP will be able to turn the 0.91xx handle into a new base for activity which we can handle in an almost virtuoso fashion. As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
4