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Bailout

Aggregate Rate of Return All 401(k) PlansThe purpose of this chart is to show how retirement funds are drained once returns reach 20%. The reason this happens is because the purpose of the 401(k) is to prevent working people from ever reaching anything that resembles financial independence. From the time we begin our careers to the time that we reach retirement age, we are CONSTANTLY told that if we do NOT use the 401(k), we are "leaving free money on the table". But look at the chart. The reality is: retirement funds get drained, people lose their life savings ('08), and big institutional funds (supposedly fiduciaries) get bailed out, WHILE YOU LOSE EVERYTHING YOU WORKED TO BUILD. All I'm saying is: if you work with a "financial professional", you have a right to ask questions. You have a right to seek answers. You have a right to know what THEIR plan is for YOUR money. Look at the S&P 500. Ask your advisor: What causes these massive drops? Why does this occur? Am I protected? I will build on this in my subsequent chart publishing.
TVC:SPXShort
by ChiefMacro
7
1929 styled Bank Run Starting Tomorrow !!!SIVB SVB Financial Group Buyout or Bail Out, the only options! SVB was the second-largest banking failure in the history of the United States! Only 2.7% of Silicon Valley Bank deposits are less than $250,000. Meaning, 97.3% aren't FDIC insured, resulting in over $160 billion of uninsured customer deposits. Roughly 50% of the US venture capital-funded startups are clients of SVB, potentially putting 65,000 startups at risk of payroll disruptions. Such a situation could have significant consequences for the startup and tech sectors. SVB did business with FTX, plus many other formerly overvalued tech companies. With $210 billion in assets, $SIBV was the 15th largest bank in the US in terms of deposits. SVB held $91 billion in bond portfolio, classified as “held-to-maturity” securities, with an yield of 1.78! SVB CEO Greg Becker explained that the bank was selling its available-for-sale bond portfolio for $21 billion due to anticipated sustained higher interest rates, challenging conditions in both public and private markets, and elevated cash burn levels from its clients. This move resulted in a total loss of $1.8 billion for the bank. I think we are going to see a government take over of SIVB SVB Financial Group on Monday. In case they don’t do that, a 1929 styled bank run starting tomorrow! So i don’t think they have a choice other than bail out SVB Financial. In case of a Takeover, the buyout area should be $12.75 - $32. This is my Price Target for SIVB. 2020 Covid Lockdown level was $128 so the stock is Still expensive right now! Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SShort
by TopgOptions
BTCUSD: North only - or 50% correction? 'Everybody' want's BTC to go north only. Well, you know what I mean. People want to know why Bitcoin is flaking out. Some will say ' Anytime soon to $75,000! " There are several indicators on this chart. No predictions here. I don't do predictions. Only probabilities. The chart shows some conflicting information. BTC is now coming into a zone of congestion and just nudged below the 100 MA. These two things suggest that 'everybody' who was holding their powder dry will be looking for a good deal. And sure they may make a few bob (as we say in England). There is no 'death cross' so 'everybody' is relaxed. But there is a problem. The ATR on the daily has shown a sharp switch. This is not a good sign for a bullish market on this daily time frame. It indicates a probability for further movement south. But hold on - I didn't say price is going south 'now'! Possible scenarios: 1. Price collapses dramatically now. 2. Price goes into consolidation and then collapses. 3. Price consolidates and moves north for while. 4. Price rockets to the moon right now. The indicators are showing some interesting areas, that others may be watching. Caution: Indicators rule no market in the world. They give us a probability. So for every probability south there is a residual probability north e.g. if 62% north then 38% for the south (note this is just an example). And what does north mean? North doesn't mean to the moon. It means that price in any market may move a certain distance north which nobody can predict how far. Substitute 'south' for a bearish outlook. But I don’t imagine many people want to think about that one. But note also that technical analysis does not rule markets. There a fundamental issues that rule too. But charts have a hard time mapping out fundamentals (unless it's some specific type of fundamental data). What's spooking the Bitcoin market? The chatter in the blogosphere is about a ban on Bitcoin coming from the US, UK, China, Turkey and India (probably other countries as well). A few months ago I referred to when Gold was banned. I was laughed at. No problem. People simply said, "Nobody can ban crypto!! No chance! Impossible to enforce. " Well it doesn't matter. The point is that those who made their killing ain't taking the chance that it could be banned. The next issue is that there is word on the block of a wave of capital gains taxes to hit. Are people going to wait on Biden to finalise it? Some will, some won't. Those who made their money are probably cashing in and not waiting for bad news. I don't blame them. The history of the Gold ban is one that people should dig deep into. I'm not saying that Bitcoin is gold. I'm saying that your leaders who invented and protected fiat currencies, are most unlikely to allow an independent store of value to challenge their world order. I don't want Bitcoin to flake out. I love its rebelliousness. But that particular feature is what may make it intolerable to 'the authorities'. Four times (approx) the price of gold (at peak) is serious provocation. Trend is more important than price. Some say the trend is their friend. Some don't believe that. Oh my mate (not on Tradingview), held on at $51,000 instead of bailing out. Tonight it's around $48,000 🙄 . Why do people hold on? They 'know', or they 'hope', it's going back north. The 'enemies within' rule. This mate of mine is not a trader. She'll probably hold on some more and if it pushes back to 56,000 will say ' See what I mean - I was right! ' That's some kind of confirmation bias or something. But folk like these don't have an exit strategy. I don't tell people what to do with their money or investments. Disclaimers : This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions and not intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which has a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
18
Transition to GREATNESS 3/3OK, here's the last part of the series. SPX is similar to DJI, DJT and IWM, they show the general situation and often sign what's gonna happen in the future of the market over all. If they collapse, everyone follows (even TSLA and BTC, as we experienced during this March, unfortunately). The lines and arrows are quite self explanatory, but read the notes on the chart and see if they make sense. The vertical lines: the first pink one is obviously the first trend change as after a collapse, a bounce should occur (either if it's a poor dead cat or just the start of a recovery of any kind). This steep up move can not last long though. The 2nd pink vertical line marks when the trend angle changed for a more realistic (I wish, though) regeneration pace (represented by the red arrow). If unlimited bailouts will continue to follow as promised ("don't fight the FED", remember?) we could even maintain this one, until -at least or maximum- the end of this year. Of course, several pullbacks/corrections will happen in the meantime, but the bottom line here is if we gonna be able to maintain the regeneration or the 3rd and/or 4th vertical dashed lines will represent an other (or two) trend change any time in the future, where as one could be a sideways consolidation move maybe even for the long run, the other (or say last one) -if we drop below the strong black line- marks a longer bear market and a depression would come as the trend that we see today is not backed up on the financial side (XLF). It's like we are loosing steam, and likely will roll over and fall soon. This is how it feels. This is what we want to avoid though (with the help of president Trump, and I'm not sarcastic now) so this is why I don't wanna fight the "Transition to Greatness" scenario. No point to fight it, 'cause it might very likely play out with newly printed money, fresh bail out checks and/or even the introduction of a $2000 UBI system during any time this year (maybe at a second collapse when the Q2 numbers come out, so that is by the end of July). This way we would regenerate at Q4. You never know, they have this option in their back pockets too. Note that the national debt is now 25 trillion USD, but it can be 50 trillion and 80 trillion too, nobody would die in blood and pain on the streets because of it, it's just economy at modern times (our children/grandchildren could pay for it?), with lots and lots of people getting poorer and some less poor will survive with some luck and some rich loosing some/gaining some, whatever and so on. I hope for the best, but will watch out for anything. Trade safe.
TVC:SPXEducation
by janfoux
2
FORD ($F): Press "F" For Ford?✨ Drop a comment asking for an update, we do NEW setups every day! ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉 --- Ford is gradually restarting as America gets back to work, we even have another stimulus in the works that could generally help business. Still, this chart is giving us a nice short setup given the recent bearish trend and consolidating price action. All it will take is a bit of bad news, for example workers coming back to work and getting sick (just look at the issues the meat packing industry has been having), to send us back down to the bottom of the pennant. So let's look at a short setup. Resource: www.cnn.com + www.forbes.com --- 1. Fractal Trend has been showing a downtrend (Maroon bar color) on the 1 hour timeframe as Ford consolidates after the COVID crash. 2. With this strategy, we are looking for short setups in a downtrend and as such want to enter short on retests of bearish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Maroon line color) and/or bearish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Maroon line color). 3. Right now we are looking for a short entry off of R1 with a target of S1. Not only do we have orderblock and S/R levels to target, we also have the top and bottom trendiness of the large pennant that has been forming. 4. We will exit the position if our stop loss is hit or if Fractal Trend changes color, otherwise we will be looking for a test of S1 to close our position in profit. Good luck family!
NYSE:F
by AlphaBotSystem
NCLH sweet tradingNow to note on some of my trades went, well not great due to the virus. HL options expired and everything pretty much dropped. Even though I had some bear options on amd and spce. The virus didn't give a dam about it and if you were a bear you were lucky a little if you weren't reading the virus early stages in China, which AMD dump was given. Now on to NCLH and why I'm bullish. First the news -On friday trump signed the 2trillion dollar stimulaus package with 4trillion set aside in case the 2trillion fails...hint hint it will fail. -Now NCLH and the cruise lines weren't in the relief help in the bill, so on Friday and today they tanked with fear - Trump has stated he will be buying/bailing them out with only NCLH leaving his mouth, so NCLH could be a safe accumulation phase and probably the most volital stock...I love it -NCLH, only one I heard, is proactive and leasing their ships to the US gov to fight the virus and help treat people. -One concern is that their staff has been reported lying about what NCLH is doing, yet the company told their emplyees to stop spreading rumors and the lies. Now the virus, yes the virus is needed to do TA with uncertain so lets cover global news on it. -USA becomes number one in case, yet still fewer deaths besides in major cites/high destiny population -Vaccine/treatment is suppose to come later this fall, yet the average time of a vaccine is over a year, so next year is likely candidate to end the virus/be able to treat it. -More and more world leaders are catching the virus and could cancel/delay the US elections. Now into NCLH TA -Side note I read that there have been alot of put sellers at the $10, yet take it with a grain of salt during this uncertainty and may be just stupid money against crusies. -Now overview on the lines: -the purple box is the range a bought NCLH on March 19 with the first blue horizontal line being a sell before it went to $20. -Green line at $9.88 is todays buy near market open with that insane dump with fear from friday one could say -Second blue line is the low of march 25-26 which could be a top with this buy in with the idea we could get into a tight range before making the big move. -First red box of 30% is from todays buy to the low mar 24 before it had its move to $20. The second one is from todays buy to the low of the trading range of mar 25-26 -Emas are still far apart and looks towards more downside -MACD looks like its gonna go bullish with a crossover as the selling platues out, could make another hill so still risky trade -RSI is oversold, but not deadly oversold, just oversold by today. -Volume is dropping and have an expected massive move soon since volume is still up there as today bulls hold the low $10 range. I'm bullish on NCLH cause it was hit one of the hardest since china came out with the virus early this year. From what I read NCLH is the most proactive crusie line and during this bear trend in the market, I believe sub $10 or whenever you are confident there is hugh potential and upside. Also going on the assumption as the president said they will bail/buy out NCLH after discussion and them leasing their ships out is postive news to accumulate on and could get a bigger cut when they get their releif. Long esposer may hurt, but during this time and with a cheap price this is a great swing trading stock during this market.
NYSE:NCLHLong
by nathanielx9
NCLH - Fibonacci retracement shows first level of resistanceNYSE:NCLH Norwegian Cruise Lines (NCLH) recently ran into resistance as sellers prevented the stock from going past the .236 fibonacci retracement level earlier this week. Furthermore, recent options activity shows bearish sentiment with NCLH put/call volume ratios of 2.07 This means for every 1 call that trades, there are 2 puts are being traded. The Put/call open interest ratio is a little more narrow at 1.20. (Ratios were taken at the time of when this article was written and are subject to change). With the prospects of receiving a bailout is not looking good for the cruise line industry, there are mixed signals from the White House that leave many investors wondering whether to buy the stock now, or wait for another drop in the stock. Many cruise lines have suspended all operations for 30 to 60 days. So we will be monitoring the impact that has on the stock. The White House is expected to pass the massive CARES act, which may provide many U.S. companies the eligibility to receive loans or loan guarantees from the Federal Government. The major cruise lines are not incorporated in the United States, which the President knows and mentioned last night that he would like to see them come to the United States... and that he wants to assist the cruise lines. <- You can see now why it's a toss up as to whether or not the cruise lines will receive financial aid from Federal Government. Based on all the public information available, where do you think NCLH is heading? Up or Down?
NYSE:NCLH
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
Boeing's wild ride!The aircraft manufacturer has really gone through ups and downs coming into 2020. Contributing to the recent declines have been the ongoing issues with the 737 Max crashes in 2019 which led to the FAA suspending the aircraft from flying hurting many airlines such as Southwest, United Airlines, and American Airlines. Also adding to the pain is the Coronavirus pandemic which has suspended all non-essential travel nationwide. Boeing traded at a low of $89 on March 18th, 2020 and today traded (March 25th) at a high of $174.77 due to optimism amid congress passing a stimulus package that would grant passenger and carrier airline $58B in loan or loan guarantees from the federal government. Buyers who took advantage of the recent lows have already made 100% returns on the stock and Boeing pays of $8.22, that’s a 9.23% yield for those who bought when BA was trading at $89/share! NYSE:BA
NYSE:BA
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
STEEM/Bitcoin Cycles Warm For A Few Days-Big Chill Coming?STEEM/Bitcoin 12 Hour Bars, LOG Scale, 06/19/18, Written 3:35 p.m. EST, by Mike Mansfield Hi trader friends, STEEM might get hot for a few days but don’t let if fool you. It should then cool off again for at least one to two more legs down before it can likely finish its larger Wave (C) decline. Price is more important than time, but even better when price & time suggests the same thing, as in the case here. SUMMARY: BOUNCE THEN LOWER, SO LOOK FOR SHORT OPPORTUNITIES AFTER NEXT TWO WAVE 4 BOUNCES. Currently on Andrews Median Median Line support after a 5 wave down. This should provide a smaller degree Wave 4 a bounce for several days to sell into. Then, down again. Why? Cycles, Elliott Wave count, Gann/Andrews/Schiff lines are all still bearish. CM_Williams indicator has slight bullish divergence, enough to support a small degree Wave 4 bounce. But, the fact that it made lower lows on the swing before, supports our longer-term bearish view. Solid red and green arrows show most likely path. Dashed red and green arrow show less likely path NO BREAKOUT UP UNTIL: 1. Daily close above the pink dashed horizontal line, which, is the prior Wave (1) low, and would likely invalidate bearish view. 2. Daily close above the red Andrews pitchfork upper channel line. 3. Daily close above the blue dashed Gann 3:1 line, whichever of the three possibilities comes first. ELLIOTT WAVES, BIG PICTURE:p Most likely path appears to be larger ABC zigzag or larger ABCDE contracting pattern, but unclear as yet. I show both, so if you move the chart around you should see larger picture wave counts. We do not yet know if STEEM will boil and take off up after the forecasted (C) wave low or simply have a larger Wave (D) bounce followed by a Wave E) wave low, perhaps into the apex of a contracting pattern. If STEEM does take off with high volume after the Wave (C) low, and moves up in clear non-overlapping 5 wave pattern, then STEEM could have the beginning of a new impulse wave up, sooner rather than later. CYCLES: Cycles are about potential general energy shifts, not necessarily exact turning points. Sometimes they invert, sometimes they are perfectly timed with market highs and lows. Cycles, are meant for general trend guidance. Blue cycle = general trend thus far. Next trough, September 25, 2018. Green cycle aligned with the 3 major lows. Next trough, August 26, 2018. Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs. Next trough, July 29th. This could be telling if the market gets unusually strong after July 29th. Watch for that date to see if the energy shifts dramatically up. General guidance: Look for SHORT opportunities into possible lows around the end of July,, end of August, end of September. NOTE: Do not use cycles alone! We really like the SteemIt platform and hope it keeps growing! Definitely check out SteemIt as a competitor for Medium.com and eventually, perhaps other social media sites like Facebook and YouTube, since SteemIt integrates with Dtube and “pays” you for content, unfettered by the powers that seek to control free speech and hold some blockchains down until they have their own versions to gain even more power. BOTTOM LINE: More cooling off ahead after two Wave 4s of different degrees have their short-term pop ups. Then down again to complete at least a Wave (C) low, possibly lower, or a Wave (E) apex in a wedge or triangle. Lows in the end of July, end of August, and/or end of September, 2018. DISCLOSURE: This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk! Cheers! Michael Mansfield CIO
Short
by UnknownUnicorn1613901