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Is QE really around the corner? Let's compare to GFCThe argument for US Quantitative Easing soon and subsequent pumpamentals in the equity market are often discussed on socialmedia these days. Let's look at the GFC and see when they announced QE back then. February 7, 2007 – HSBC’s Subprime Losses July 31, 2007 – Bear Stearns Hedge Fund Collapse September 18, 2007 – Fed Begins Rate Cuts September 15, 2008 - Lehmann Brothers Bankruptcy November 25, 2008 - Fed announces QE: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20081125b.htm Were are we today? Stonks at ATH, Gold at ATH, Bitcoin ATH. Valuations historically expansive and growth expectations on stonks gigantic accompanied by a lot of passive investment. Okay so all I'm trying to say here is that there were times where they were very strict in doing QE and only as a last resort in the depths of a crisis. Also when it happens it is not the immediate start to a bull market (at least during a crisis event). Also the balance sheet of the FED seems still full to me with 7 trillion to burn through. Is it really time to increase again? I know that the argument for soon QE to create liquidity(inflation) to handle the looming global debt crisis everyone is talking about is also out there. I also think that they will be faster this time to announce QE, they might just still take couple of months and a little bit of crisis.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by entomologyx
SMR approaching DCA opprtunityNYSE:SMR is approaching a potential entry point for the start of a DCA strategy for a long term hold. SUMMARY Wait to see where the price moves. Using a combination of RSI reaching 30 and the price falling to (with a 3 day filter) around $4 or if the price continues to fall then around $2 (another 3 day filter at this level too), begin entry with a DCA strategy. Alternatively, if the price rises above $6, after a 3 day filter, begin DCA. If the price starts forming a flag between $5 and $5.80, enter once RSI has reached 30 (for those with a higher risk appetite can just use the RSI as an indicator) or await a range breakout/down to either enter at the $4 or $2 or $6 level as described above with or without a three day filter. The price was seeing exponential growth in the leadup to the latest quarterly earnings report and popped a few days after. However, the price has subsequently fallen back down and now seems to be forming a pattern. It is unknown really what caused the price to jump. And there has not been any significant insider trading on the day (or lead up to the day) where the price recently peaked. The company itself has a healthy balance sheet and debt/equity ratio. It is still in the growth phase as they build somewhat emerging tech (nuclear power is established but their approach to providing customers modular smaller power stations is unique) and a large part of their customer base is still a maturing market (power hungry data centres wanting their own onsite nuclear power source, particularly those now being setup for providing AI). The company's income statement reflects this as net income over the recent years remains negative and is also not showing an upwards trajectory. With this in mind this would be a stock for a long term hold with a DCA investment strategy until, whichever comes first, either a total dollar figure invested is reached or the company becomes long term profitable (i.e. exits the growth phase). With the recent price fluctuations it is crucial to not enter too early as due to the immature nature of the industry and company, the price also has a high likelihood of remaining at a low level for quite some time. However, a DCA entry opportunity is also forming based on one of the 3 of the more likely price trend scenarios described in the chart. Details on these are as follows. Scenarios 1 and 2: Wait to see which way the price begins to move and see if it falls to one of the two support levels identified, make use of the RSI to identify the optimum entry point. If the price falls to $4, add in a 3 day filter to see if the price doesn't fall further and likewise add in a 3 day filter if the price continues to fall from $4 to $2. If the RSI has reached 30, and the 3 day filter has shown that $4 or $2 were a support level begin DCA. If the price continues to fall below 2, halt the DCA to see where the price becomes stable and then restart once the RSI starts trending upwards again. Scenario 3: If the price begins ranging between $5.30 and $5.80, depending on risk appetite, begin DCA once the RSI reaches 30 or starts trending upwards. If the price breaks out above $6, then add in a 3 day filter to ensure the breakout wasn't a false dawn, and start the DCA investment independent of where the RSI is.
NYSE:SMRLong
by slip_stream
DXY D1 - Bullish BounceDXY D1 - Relief Rally The dollar index has undergone a significant retreat, showcasing a robust decline from the recent swing low to the swing high. It elegantly touched the 618 region, displaying a compelling wick, and gracefully closed just above our crucial 103.000 support level. Anticipating a potential rebound from this fortifying support zone, we may witness a temporary respite before a possible breach of the 103.000 support on the imminent second attempt. Meanwhile, the US30, US100, and XAUUSD are scaling impressive heights, mirroring the upward momentum seen in GBPUSD and EURUSD. Stay tuned for a detailed analysis unfolding shortly.
TVC:DXYLong
by Trade_Simple_FX
S&P500: Balance sheet extends drop.Will interest rate peak soon?The S&P500 has been declining for more than two months straight reaching the HL trendline from the market bottom. It is useful to look into the Fed's role on this whole long term price action and what better timeframe to use than the 1W. As you can see, the Fed's Balance Sheet (orange) is extending a long term decline that started more than one year ago, while the Interest Rate (teal) continues to rise. You don't need to go back any further than the 2018-2019 period, which was marked by the extensive trade wars between the U.S. and China. The key to recovery was when the Interes Rate peaked and flatlined. That was when the stock market bottomed and growth stability returned to the markets. The recent (almost) two year inflation crisis has the market in an even more advantageous position as it's been one year since it recovered and priced the bottom, despite the fact that the Interest Rate is still rising. Theoretically when the Interest Rate peaks and turns flat, we should see a more stable stock market growth. With the S&P500 on a HL support and the Balance sheet still dropping, do you think the Fed will pull the trigger and soon announce in one of their next meetings an end to rate hikes? ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:SPX
by InvestingScope
3
S&P 500: Roaring Twenties 2.0 Bullish Harmonic FractalIn the lead up to the 1920s, the US Federal Reserve significantly increased its balance sheet by almost nine times, starting from 700 Million Dollars in December 1916 to 6.6 Billion Dollars by January 1920. This move was presumably to fund the US's entry into the First World War, which led to an increased demand for US government debt globally and loose lending conditions domestically, and low rates thereby encouraging a round of inflation in the US. However, after the war ended, the Fed stopped increasing the balance sheet, and between 1920 and 1922, they began to reduce it from the already elevated $6.6 billion to $4.8 billion, almost a 30% cut in just two years. This action successfully controlled inflation but did not eliminate it completely, yet the dollar gained significant buying power, resulting in a somewhat disinflationary period. As a response to this, the Fed maintained the balance sheet within a tight range around $4.8 billion for a decade, neither raising nor lowering it much but the federal reserve did continue to significantly lower the interest rates; During this time, equities rallied. While the 1920s were a period of economic growth and prosperity, there were warning signs of overheating towards the end of the decade. Investors were becoming overly speculative, leading to a surge in stock and real estate prices, while lending standards declined and consumer spending continued to rise rapidly. To counteract these inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve implemented policies to tighten credit conditions; They doubled interest rates and also raised reserve requirements for banks, which reduced the amount of money available for lending. In essence this would kickstart The Great Depression which could have instead been a Simple Recession if only the fed had acted sooner as it wasn't their intention to crush the market but rather they just wanted to cool the market down a bit to contain inflation. Years deep into the Great depression, the Federal Reserve realized they had gone too far. So, to fix this, they would begin to raise the balance sheet again while also cutting rates drastically in an effort to relieve pressure from the economy and promote new opportunities for economic growth, which then led to a new expansionary cycle. With that all being said, it would appear that the Fed is doing now what it was doing back then. Over the last decade, they raised the balance sheet by 900% and lowered interest rates by over 95%. Only over the last year, they have begun to reduce the balance sheet by about 10% while raising rates by over 1500%. If we are to go off of the Harmonic Fractals on the chart, then we are likely nearing a point in time where the Fed will begin to loosen rate policy and bring the balance sheet back to all-time highs. This would align with the S&P reaching a 2.618 - 4.00 Retraces as the Fed attempts to keep policy as loose as possible in the hopes that inflation won't come back to bite them. But once we reach harmonic targets, we will likely see inflation return in a great way, which would then force the Fed to induce another Great Depression in the next several years rather they want to or not. Technical Argument: ABCD BAMM, after breaking a long accumulation range and entering a long term expansionary cycle, we are now in the later phases of said cycle while showing heavy amounts of MACD Hidden Bullish Divergence and harmonically have room to go up significantly higher before it ultimately reaches D and comes to an end.
TVC:SPXLong
by RizeSenpai
2
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Projected to Exceed $19 TrillionWave structures on these Economic Indexes tend to play out fairly often, such as in the case for Various CPI and Interest Rate Charts which can bee seen in the Related Ideas tab below. With that in mind, I now turn to The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet; and when I look at the Balance Sheet what I see is that since the Inception of this chart, it has traded within an Equidistant Channel that can be easily viewed and plotted in Log scale. When I look deeper into this I can also see that since around the end of the 2008 GFC when mass bailouts occurred, the RSI on the Balance Sheet has typically stayed Elevated and Above the Bullish Control Zone: meaning any time spent below the level of 70 has typically been followed by insane expansionary rallies, thus huge continuations in the rapid increases of the Balance Sheet. Additionally, it can also be seen that as of recent times (notably since the mid 2010s) the MACD has become a great indicator in the form of Hidden Bullish Divergences appearing just before huge continuations to the upside; these mid 2010 events align with the blunder that were the taper tantrums in which the fed ultimately capitulated on their monetary tightening stance and decided to expand the Balance Sheet Exponentially Higher and now looking at the chart we can see yet another Hidden Bullish Divergence forming that will be confirmed at the close of the month after the next trading week signaling that another big wave up is about to begin. Lastly, when zooming all the way out and taking in all the data at once, it can be seen that we are in what looks to be an AB=CD wave structure in which the first expansion was a 400% Expansion and the Current Expansion is on the way to being yet another 400%. We are currently about halfway there and the AB=CD Wave Structure would suggest that the Federal Reserve will more than double it's Balance Sheet by 2026 as the Federal Reserve capitulates yet again in an attempt to save the current fragile economic system.
FRED:WALCLLong
by RizeSenpai
3
#BOND crisis to fuel monetary expansion The Fed is damned by inflation if they print, damned by bank runs if they dont print. And with recession on the way, history shows we could plumb to new lows if the Fed only prints enough to backstop banks and pensions. Early 2000s and early 1930s were two such cases where the Fed aggressively lowered rates for well over 18 months but markets continued to trend lower anyway. But 2008 ushered in central bank quantitative easing, so with QE at the Fed's disposal, it is more likely the growth of M2 will accelerate which will keep inflation stubbornly high if not higher. A new factor that wasn't present before is that we have increasing M2 from China and Japan which has been a large driver of the market bounce we've seen in stocks and crypto since the start of the year. The 2-yr and 10-yr rates are heading lower in a hurry. CME Fed futures currently predicts one more 25 bps hike to a terminal rate of 500-525 then three consecutive drops of 25 bps. Higher inflation would become the standard as the Fed would be forced to accept a higher inflation target well above 2% which Ray Dalio had predicted in one of his published pieces.
FRED:WALCL
by BallaJi
At the beginning was the EquityWith this post, I am concluding the analysis of the company's balance sheet. You can read the previous parts here: Part 1 - Balance sheet: taking the first steps Part 2 - Assets I prioritize Part 3 - A sense of debt Now we know that every company has assets on one side of the balance sheet and liabilities and equity on the other side. If you add liabilities and equity together you get the sum of assets. And vice versa, if you subtract all of the company's liabilities from the assets, you get what? That's right, you get Equity . Let's discuss this important component of the balance sheet. When a company is first established, it must have initial equity. This is the money with which any business starts. It is used for the first expenses of the new company. In the case of our workshop , the equity was the master's savings, with which he bought the garage, equipment, raw materials and other assets to start his business. As sales progressed, the workshop received the revenue and reimbursed expenses. Whatever was left over was used to boost the company's profit. So, our master invested his capital in the business to increase it through profits. Making a profit is the main purpose for which the company's assets work, loans are raised, and equity is invested. Let's see which balance sheet items are in the Equity group: - Common stock (The sum of nominal values of common stock issued). Remember, when our master decided to turn his company into a stock company , he issued 1 million shares at a price of $1,000 per share. So $1,000 per share is the par value of the stock. And the sum of the nominal values of the stocks issued would be $1 billion. - Retained earnings . It is clear from the name of this item that it contains profits that have not been distributed. We will find out where it can be allocated in the next post, when we start analyzing the income statement. - Accumulated other comprehensive income (Profit or loss on open investments). The profit or loss of a company can be not only from its core business, but also, for example, from the rise or fall in the value of other companies' shares that it bought. In our example, the workshop has oil company shares. The financial result from the revaluation of these shares is recorded in this item. So, the equity is necessary for the company to invest it in the business and make a profit. Then the retained earnings themselves become equity, which is reinvested to make even more profits. It's a continuous cycle of the company's life that bets on equity growth. Which balance sheet items are of interest to me in the Equity group? Of course, I am interested in the profit-related items: retained earnings and profit or loss on open investments. The sum of nominal share values is a static indicator, so it can hardly tell us anything. However, it is better to use information from the income statement rather than the balance sheet to analyze earnings, because only this report allows us to see the entire structure of a company's income and expenses. So we conclude the general analysis of a company's balance sheet. To fully understand why it is needed, let's engage our imagination once again. Do you remember the example with the hotel ? We imagined that a joint stock company is a hotel with identical rooms, where you, as an investor, can buy a certain number of rooms (one room = one share). Think about what you would want to look at first before buying? Personally, I'd rather see photos of the rooms. So, the balance sheet can be compared to such photos that we get from the hotel at quarterly and annual intervals. Of course, in such a case, the hotel will try to use special effects as much as possible in order to improve investors' impression of the photos released. However, if we track and compare photos over multiple periods, we can still understand: is our hotel evolving, or have we been watching the same couch in a standard room for 10 years in a row. We can say that the balance sheet is a "photo" of the company's assets, debts and equity at the balance sheet date. And the balance sheet items I've chosen are what I look at first in this photo. In the next series of posts, we will break down an equally important report, the income statement, and explore the essence of earnings. See you soon!
NASDAQ:AAPLEducation
by Be_Capy
A sense of debtIn the previous two posts, we explored how assets are grouped in a company's balance sheet. Part 1: Balance sheet: taking the first steps Part 2: Assets I prioritize Now let's deal with Liabilities and Stockholders' equity. Let me remind you that these are the sources of funds that give a company assets. And indeed, with what funds can a company have assets? Either with its own funds (stockholders' equity), or with funds borrowed (liabilities). For simplicity, we will call them Debts and Equity. Debts can vary in maturity, so we've divided them into two categories in the balance sheet: Current liabilities and Non-current liabilities . Current liabilities include: - Current debts are debts that need to be paid back within a year after they are incurred. Do you remember our master took a loan from the bank to make a large batch of boots? That loan will be recorded in this item (assuming the loan is up to one year in repayment). - Accounts payable (debts to suppliers of goods and services). You can borrow money not only from the bank, but also from your suppliers, for example. In other words he is giving you raw materials now, but is ready to accept payment later. Such debts are reflected in this item. - Accrued liabilities (Provisions for future expenses on unpaid bills in the form of wages, rent, taxes). The word "debt" is in many ways synonymous with the word "liability." A company may have many such liabilities: payment of wages, rent and taxes. In essence, these are also debts to be paid during the year. For convenience, cash reserves are set aside for them. They are spent at the moment when the payment is due. Such reserves are recorded in this item. - Other current liabilities . Debts or liabilities with a maturity of up to one year that are not included in the categories above are shown here. Non-current liabilities include: - Long term debt - these are debts that need to be paid back more than one year after they are incurred. If our master had borrowed from the bank for two years, such a loan would fall into this category. - Deferred taxes liabilities (Provision for taxes to be paid in a future period). Tax rates are subject to change, and new taxes may come into effect in a year or more. But even now, the company can set aside money for future taxes. - Other long term liabilities . Here are debts or liabilities with a maturity of more than one year that are not included in the categories above. In short, debts are loans taken by the company, provisions for tax liabilities, and debts to suppliers. The amount of debt is a very important indicator in the fundamental analysis of a company. On the one hand, the mere presence of debt is not scary, because it demonstrates that banks trust the company and give it loans for development. On the other hand, a substantial amount of debt can cause serious problems and losses in the period of weak sales of goods or services. Banks are unlikely to suspend interest charges on loans if a company is doing poorly. This means the company will incur expenses in the form of interest on loans that are not offset by revenue. Also a reminder that if a company goes bankrupt, the owners of the stock get the assets of that company only after all debts have been settled . If the debts are so large that they exceed the value of all the property, the shareholders get nothing. For these reasons, I select companies with small debt loads. What liabilities do I focus on? - Current debt; - Accounts payable; - Long term debt. For me, these are the items that most clearly reflect the company's debt situation. In the next post, we will conclude our study of the balance sheet and look at the basic source of assets, which is Equity. See you soon!
NASDAQ:AMZNEducation
by Be_Capy
4
Assets I prioritizeIn the previous post Balance sheet: taking the first steps , we began parsing the balance sheet of the imaginary workshop and focused on assets. Today, I suggest looking at what types of tangible and intangible property are classified as current assets and what types are classified as non-current assets. Current assets contain the following items: - Cash and cash equivalents - in our case we can include a safe with money, which, in general, corresponds to the company's cash in its current bank accounts. - Net receivables - here we would include the IOU from a friend. That is everything that clients owe the company for goods or services. - Inventory - this includes a bag with leather, rubber and thread. That is all raw materials, from which goods are made, as well as stocks of finished goods in warehouses. - Other current assets - this can include other current assets that do not belong to the previous items. Non-current assets include the following items: - Net property, plant and equipment - we include a garage, table, chair, sewing machine and tools. Depreciation is deducted from the original cost of the property when reporting it. Depreciation is the cost to repair and renew the property. - Equity and other investments - in our example, this would include oil company stocks (and in general, any company investment in stocks or bonds of other companies). - Goodwill - let's say our company wants to buy another company and is willing to pay $11 million for it. The assets of the other company are $10 million, and the debts that our company will have to pay for the other company are $2 million. So the assets net of debt are $8 million. After the purchase, the assets and debts of that company will become the assets and debts of our company. So, the difference between the purchase amount of $11 million and the net assets of $8 million is a goodwill equal to $3 million. For our workshop, this item is not relevant, as it didn't buy any company. Nevertheless, remember that goodwill is the difference between the purchase price of another company and its net assets. - Intangible assets - this can include the value of the customer base in the master's phone book, as well as any other assets that have no tangible basis (such as purchased trademarks). - Other long term assets - this item includes other non-current assets that don't belong to the previous items. Once we understand which asset belongs to which item, its value (or rather, the sum of the values of all assets belonging to this item) is written in the balance sheet. For example, let's say we've determined that the Inventory item includes leather, rubber, and thread. The accountant adds up the value of the leather, rubber, and thread and writes the total amount in monetary terms against the Inventory item. This is how the numbers appear in the balance sheet. Now let's discuss which balance sheet items we should pay attention to during the fundamental analysis of assets. I have formulated the following rule for myself: pay attention to the assets that are directly related to the sale of the company's goods or services . If a company does not sell its goods or services well, its bank account balance will shrink, huge inventories of unsold goods and raw materials will accumulate in its warehouses, and accounts receivable (customers debt) will grow. The fact is that when sales are bad, the company is ready to lend out goods as debt. If sales are going well, then, on the contrary, the money in the account will grow, and accounts receivable and inventory will start to shrink. All other assets can influence sales only indirectly, so I don't consider them. Thus, I have identified my priority assets : - Cash and cash equivalents; - Net receivables; - Inventory. As you can see, they are all quick current assets. Non-current assets only indirectly affect sales, so they are not a priority benchmark for me. In the next post, we'll start looking at the right side of our disclosed book, called the Balance sheet. That's where the company's liabilities and equity belong. See you next time!
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Be_Capy
Balance sheet: taking the first stepsToday we are going to start learning about fundamental analysis of companies. In my opinion, this is the basic skill you should have when picking stocks to invest in. Once again, the main principle of the strategy I follow is to pick outstanding companies and buy their stocks at a discounted price. You may have noticed that first-class products are occasionally discounted in stores, but not for long, because such products are quickly swept off the shelves, and almost the next day the price is again without a discount. Exactly the same strategy is applicable to the stock market. Now, fundamental analysis is a method for picking outstanding companies (that is, companies with strong fundamentals). How can we tell if a company has a strong foundation or not? There is only one way - by analyzing its financial statements. Every listed company has to disclose this information publicly on its website. In other words, we don't have to extract that information - it is publicly available. You can also find it on TradingView and see the data in dynamics. What is the content of this information? The company publishes three reports : balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. The balance sheet, like the order book , can be presented as an open book. The left side of the book lists the company's assets and their valuation in monetary terms, and the right side lists the company's liabilities and equity , and their valuation in monetary terms. What are company assets ? These are everything that belongs to the company: buildings, equipment, trademark, shares of other companies, cash in the cash register. In general, all tangible and intangible property of a company are assets. What are liabilities and equity of a company? These are the sources of funds that gave rise to the assets. For example, if you bought a computer for $1000 with your savings, then the computer is an asset, and your own savings are equity. If a friend lent you $100, and you put the money in your pocket, the money in your pocket is an asset, and the debt to your friend is a liability. Based on these examples, you can make an imaginary balance sheet: As you can see, the entry in the balance sheet is the name of the asset, liability or equity and their monetary value. Assets, liabilities and equity are inextricably linked, so the sum of assets is always equal to the sum of liabilities and equity . If we were to write every asset in this way on the balance sheet of a large company, it would turn into an endless book of hundreds of pages. However, if we look at the balance sheets of huge corporations, they can fit on a single sheet of paper. This is due to the fact that over time invented to group the same type of balance sheet items. Let's look at how the company's balance sheet items are grouped: Don't be frightened. Now we will try to digest this table with the help of an example we are already familiar with. Let's think back to our master cobbler , specifically to the period when he was just starting out. Let's assume what exactly he had at that time: a garage, a table, a chair, a sewing machine, tools, a bag with leather and rubber, thread, a safe with money, a phone book with clients' contact information, a IOU from his friend, and oil company stocks. I have now listed the assets of our master, or should I say, of his workshop. I should note that what is listed here is exactly what is directly related to his business. Even the money in the safe, the debt from his friend, and the oil company shares came about because of the existence of the business. Let's say the master's apartment or the bicycle he rides in the park are not assets, because they don't belong to the workshop. They belong to the master, but not to his business. Let's categorize the workshop's assets into groups. There are two big groups: Current assets and Non-current assets . How should you distinguish them? The general rule is this: Current assets are what a company's product is made of, and what can turn into money in the near future, so they can be called quick assets . Non-current assets are where and with what we create the product, and what can turn into money not so soon (so they can be called long-term assets ). So, here we go: - A garage, a table, a chair are where we create a product, so a long-term (non-current) asset. - A sewing machine, tools - this is what we use to create a product - a long-term (non-current) asset. - A bag with leather and rubber and thread is what a product is made from - a quick (current) asset. - A safe with money is already real money - a quick (current) asset. - A phone book with customer numbers - it's hard to sell it to someone quickly, such assets are also called intangible assets and are placed in long-term (non-current) assets. - IOU from a friend, i.e. a friend bought boots from a master, but can pay only after receiving his salary - a quick (current) asset. - Shares of an oil company - let's assume that a customer once paid for the boots with them - a long-term (non-current) asset. So, we've just categorized the master's assets into two groups: current assets (quick assets) and non-current assets (long-term assets). In the next post, we'll break down the components of these two large groups. See you then!
AMEX:SPYEducation
by Be_Capy
Another low in play for Nasdaq?Third quarter results for big tech came out last week and it wasn’t pretty. Is this a harbinger of another low? Look at the price action, the Nasdaq 100 is now sitting just below the .5 Fibonacci Level which has marked a local resistance level. Curiously the price structure looks very familiar when compared with the April to June period. In that episode, prices tried to break upwards (1) but lost momentum. This resulted in a large drop to the next lower Fibonacci level (2), followed by a rally back to the 0.382, Fibonacci level above (3), where resistance was met again, and prices fell (4). Is what we are looking at now a reprise? On the macro side of things, a couple of factors keep us bearish. Firstly, the behemoth federal reserve balance sheet is only in the first innings of its reduction program. This worries us as the effect of this reduction is the removal of liquidity in the financial markets which could lead to higher volatility. We will keep our eyes & ears peeled for this week’s FOMC, to identify any potential changes to the quantitative tightening schedule. Secondly, we point back to our previous research and note that the Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio is still at incredible highs, with further room to fall when compared back to the dot-com bubble in 2000. If we layer the 10-year yield (inverted) onto this Nasdaq/S&P500 ratio, one could argue that the tech outperformance could be driven by the decade-long fall in interest rates. With interest rates sharply higher now, and a few more hikes on the cards, we wonder if Nasdaq can truly hold up against the S&P500. With murmurs of a Fed Pivot driving the Nasdaq higher over the past few days, we think this presents a good opportunity for a short position. As laid out by the price structure we observed and the overhanging bearish macro picture we think another low is in play for the Nasdaq 100 index. With FOMC this week and a packed economic calendar, one way to manage risk is to trade the Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Futures, which is a smaller and more manageable contract, allowing you the option to average into your position. Entry at 11,540, stop at 12,150. Target at 10,300. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by inspirante
10
BTC: Don't DCA YetMacro conditions couldn’t be any worse. Starting this month, the Fed unleashed its quantitative tightening (QT) plans, trimming the $9trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented scale (current run-off cap: $47.5bn/month initial; $95bn/month 3 month later; 2017 run-off: max $50bn/month). The last two quantitative tightening led to a sharp rise in yields in 2013 and a repo crisis in 2019 respectively. Unfortunately, this time around, the Fed has to deal with a much larger balance sheet and all-time high inflation rate since 1982. Without the ability to print real world supply of goods and services (factories, natural resources), the Fed has lever on the demand side, but lowering demand means hikes in unemployment (which the Fed is already targeting). With a 7% gap between short-term rate and inflation rate, can the Fed “just rise unemployment a little bit” without causing a recession? Extremely hard unless real world supply of goods and services picks up. For us crypto traders and investors, the question is - isn’t bitcoin an inflation hedge, and if global market enters a recession, wouldn’t bitcoin be the risk-off asset of choice? My take on this is not in this cycle. Bitcoin has not experienced a proper traditional finance bear market yet and has performed poorly during past tapering and quantitative tightening environments. Different phases of quantitative easing, tapering, and quantitative tightening are marked on the chart above. After three rounds of quantitative easing from 2010, the start of tapering in 2014 marked the beginning of bitcoin’s 2-year bear market. In 2017, quantitative tightening started in October, and the 2018 crypto crash soon followed. In other words, bitcoin’s inflation hedge narrative hasn’t been officially tested or widely accepted. With arbitrage opportunities, scams, hack risks, and run-on-bank fear, the crypto market is no doubt in its early stage. While superior security and scarcity give bitcoin the potential to replace gold in a new era of currency, early-stage demand side volatility makes bitcoin subject to wild price swings. The current reality is we see rising correlation between bitcoin and the equity market year after year, and the volatility is further heightened by the derivative market. In the current cycle, bitcoin’s inflation hedge value is overpowered by its volatility, and it is hard for bitcoin to rally under gloomy global macro conditions before the market matures and stabilizes. Do you agree? What’s your take on crypto under the current global macro? Support and comment below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
18
Today's Closing on a local Triple Top - Where to Now?Given the somewhat bullish news from the Fed today, a rate hike of only 50 basis points and no larger hikes in the near future, things seem to be looking up. The news gave way to a major rally midday, erasing losses since- well, last Monday. However, it should be noted that the fed slipped in a dirty curveball: in June it will start a multi-trillion dollar balance sheet runoff starting June 1st. In the month ahead, it should be expected that the market will be trying to gauge what this will mean for them. As a hint, the last time the Fed dumped its balance sheet in response to extreme economic conditions was in December of 2008. October's decline caused a run-up in the fed's balance sheet as the housing market began to tilt sideways. When things seemed stable, the Fed ran off nearly 20% of its holdings in the 2 months following- before the stock market reached its lows that following March. This coming runoff isn't nearly as drastic, as the fed maintains a $8.9 trillion fund and is only giving up $47.5 billion a month for the first three months, and $90 billion for the next three. This equates to only a 4.6% drop, over a much longer period of time. Will the balance sheet runoff be enough to curb inflation? Only time will tell. However, I take it as a sign that we've not yet hit the bottom in this market. Continuing this thought, let's look at the hourly chart for the S&P 500. We're seeing some resistance at the 4300 mark. We seem to have closed on a Triple Top, and today's rally wasn't enough to blow past this target ( again! ). The previous two times we've hit this figure, it looks like we've declined by 3% & 5%. My best guess is that if tomorrow does not carry this rally's momentum higher, we'll be seeing a 8% decline from here by Monday. If after fully digesting today's news the market decides to continue its rally into tomorrow, we could even reach the top of this bearish channel. However, the RSI on this chart seems to have topped out and the MACD seems ready for a reversal. Basic technicals seem to point downward from here. If we break out of the bottom of this channel, as outlined in the chart, it could spell gloomy days for the market overall. This resonates with the nervous "big crash" bears, I'm sure. But what do you think? Are we to continue the rally this week, or bounce off of this triple top?
SP:SPXShort
by CozmicKnight
2
Relation between price of gold and FED's balance sheet.Seems to exists a relation between those two. In the long run, gold price seems to follow the expansion movements of the FED. In 08, prior to the GFC, the size of the BS was 800 times bigger than the price of a gold ounce. In 2012, it was 1,800 times bigger than the ounce of gold. In both cases, the FED's BS was bigger than the ounce of gold by a factor that equals the price of that ounce. After a growth in the BS size, it seems that it takes some time for gold to reach the value that matches the relation described above. It seems to require some time of keeping a steady not growing BS to reach it. In 2019, the FED failed in its attempt to reduce the BS, so gold wouldn't reach the desired value. Would the FED be able to taper now? Would we see the ounce of gold at $3,600?
ECONOMICS:USCBBSLong
by adelvillar