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BTC correction idea for this monthSo a correction is in play now, and BTC likes to do 30-40% corrections in this runup since the end of 2015. This woul coincide with the middel 1d bollinger band, and would allow the 1d stoch RSI to cool down again from overbought levels to oversold levels. This would lead to an exceptional entry point within the next few days to go long. However, I strongly advise against shorting, because there is a not so low probability that BTC will just continue the rally on monday, and the full correction will not play out. This is a scenario to which I attribute a probability of about 60-70%. Since BTC is in ultra bull mode, the whole correction might not even come to pass. However, the indicators say that it is quite possible, so I will position myself accordingly, as this would be a perfect entry for a new long position. The next days/week till the 18th, and on the 18th especially, might show some insane volatility, so be careful :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
ETHUSD scenario Since there is significant pressure in the cryptos until Aug 1st, I expect ETHUSD to sell a bit more. Not that it is not enough. There is significant buying at 180s, and orders at 160s. Scenariocast is: The key levels of significance 120 and 220 to become a band whilst keeping its move within the falling wedge until reaching August 1st.I find it likely to see a dip at 120 usd and a bounce back to 160s. And an uptrend from 160s, first facing profit taking at key level 220s. If for some reason it does that, there will have been an inverted H&S with a neckline at 220s and 320s target, which is another key level.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Birtan
1
Short and Long Trade Filter for Finding Price Extreme PivotsOnly short when shorter moving average (80 SMA) is over the upper thick bollinger band (400 SMA square root of 2 standard deviation band). Only long when it's below the lower. The actual entry trigger is one of six things (in order of most importance): 1.) test of major horizontal resistance line 2.) break of a pattern that supports the bias (e.g. M pattern for short; W pattern for long) 3.) test of an hourly, 4 hour, daily, monthly, or yearly pivot (classical pivots) level: S1,S2,S3,R1,R2,R3, etc. 4.) test of a major fibs extension level (1.414, 1.5, 1.618, 2.0, 2.618, 3.0, etc.) 5.) RSI divergence AND a favorable MACD cross 6.) a test of one of the bands under (for long) or over (for short) the thick band - this is a really aggressive entry when used by itself. The more of #'s 1-6 that happen simultaneously, the higher the probability that price will pivot favorably from that level and the easier it becomes to decide on a logical stop loss (price patterns and horizontal S/R levels give structure to base stop losses from). This set-up is especially strong when the 400 SMA bands are squeezing. The theory is that the price should, more often than not, explode out of the squeeze on the side that the 80 SMA is in relationship to the 400, or in the direction that the 400 SMA is moving at the time of the squeeze, UNLESS the 80 is near the thick band (within 10% distance between it, the thick band and the 400 SMA). If the 400 bands are squeezing and the 80 SMA is near to touching, or moving outside of, one of the thick bands, then price is more likely to shoot out of the squeeze in the opposite direction. So this set-up is best used for two things: 1.) finding price extremes, from which price is likely to pivot into decent gains as a counter-trend play, if not getting us in at the start of a new trend altogether. 2.) increasing the odds that we get in on the right side during a long-term price range (400 SMA bollinger band squeeze), on fast moves with high percent gains. I've only tested this set-up on shorter time frames for SPY, with decent results in back-testing the idea. Whether or not it is useful at longer time-frames and other stocks, forex, etc., is yet to be seen.
AMEX:SPY
by JamesBrown
High - Low Bollinger Bands These work better than the standard Bollinger Bands for setting extreme ranges. What I use these for is to use an oscillator to find an buy / sell signal then take that to the H L Bollinger bands and mark the spot. Most of the time, you will find that the price does not exceed this spot for the duration (length) of the H L Bollinger bands. This makes them good for doing Credit Spreads such as Put Vertical Spreads and Call Vertical Spreads. Since the price will normally not exceed the bands at the extreme point, the trader can profit from the time decay and other factors.
AMEX:SPY
by SpreadEagle71