RBOB Bollinger Band SqueezeThe RB1! Bollinger Bands bandwidth has narrowed to the narrowest width in 11 months as can be seen via the BandWidth indicator. Such a collapse in volatility usually precedes a volatility breakout in either direction. A Bollinger Band squeeze, which is a type of volatility breakout setup, is triggered when the bandwidth puts in a 6-month low which is a condition that has been achieved. This criterium is defined in the book “Bollinger on Bollinger Bands” by John Bollinger in the chapter "The Squeeze." The book states that a squeeze may oftentimes head fake and that a parabolic SAR (PSAR) may be used as a reversal trigger for an open trade or a trigger point for opening a new position in the direction price was heading when it hit the PSAR. Volume indicators and other technicals should be used to try and determine the direction of the squeeze and that is what I’ve done. Accumulation/Distribution% which is detailed in the book and linked below as an indicator I’ve published is trending down which is not necessarily the suggested use of the indicator but it was the best hint I could find about the direction of the breakout. %B is also trending down which again isn’t the intended use of the indicator but there’s not much else to go by. There’s a trendline which suggests going short and the 20-day sma is sloping downward which also suggests going short although it is pretty close to rolling up. Last time I noticed a squeeze setup was in soybeans and it broke out in the direction of the prior couple months which was down and is currently down with RBOB. The soybean idea is linked below.
I’ve come up with down as the anticipated direction of the squeeze breakout with a stop (and reverse if practical) at the PSAR (blue dots trailing stop) and a target of 1.9315 at the lower channel line which should fall above the previous low of 1.8799.
I will not actually be trading this because the notional value of 1 contract is $99,531 which is too high for me right now and it’s not a high conviction trade idea, more of a “I think this is what’s gonna happen, but it can go either way” type deal. It can head fake in one direction and break out in the other. If anyone has any ideas on which direction the volatility breakout is likely to be in based on technicals or fundamentals, please share.
Accumulation/Distribution% indicator:
Soybean Bollinger Band Squeeze idea:
Bandwidth
BAND: WATCH FOR RECTANGLE PATTERN BREAK Nice multi month consolidation on BAND .
The chart has formed a rectangle pattern which will either lead to reversal or continuation.
The rectangle pattern can be successfully traded by buying at support (143) and selling at resistance (190) or by waiting for a breakout from the formation.
With all the moving averages rising to support the price I would bet on an imminent break out and continuation to the upside.
The measured move or initial target is calculated by adding the width of the rectangle to the break out point, which is in the 237-242 zone. The reliability of this pattern is high (about 79%).
I'll be watching for a break out of the rectangle to initiate a long position.
Trade safe.
LONG MOSYSeems like following Hedge Funds is a good strategy to make a quick return. I was skeptical, but with the pump of HSDT, I am somewhat convinced.
Due to the regulatory requirements of having to disclose a position greater than 5% within 10 days of the event, tracking HF ownership stakes in low cap stocks is fairly easy.
Couple that with proven past history demonstrating "pump and dump" in certain HF's, these type of trades seems reasonable. And when all this ties in with near all time lows and seemingly real company with a good vision, I feel better betting a few dollars. I'm willing to wager that some HF know more than the general public.
With multiple hedge funds having material ownership stakes in this company, I think it's a safe bet.
BITCOIN: BE CAREFUL!!!After the huge bullish impulse, bitcoin is going through a retracement phase, which has reached an important support area (represented as a green rectangle) placed between 9,400 and 8,900 USD. Bollinger bands and the related markers underline that volatility is high. The aforementioned fact means volatility into the support area may decrease and then we could see a rebound with the first target at 11,800 USD. On the countrary, if the support area was broken out, a reaching on the support (represented in black colour) at about 8,000 USD could be possible to happen. The breakdown of the trendline in red colour, that links the maximum of the decreasing (points) of the retracement, will confirm the end of the bearish movement. For those willing to buy into the support area, I suggest setting the stop loss and handling in a correct and proper way the available capital.
USDJPY sell SetupUSDJPY just touched 4hr top bollinger band and reversing, a breakof the midline (20 MA) is to confirm a sell. a break of lower bollinger band together with low bandwidthand add some more to the short position. Stoploss can be put just above the upper bollinger band nad target for 112.50.