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BANK

Banks Predicting a Crash!This is an updated version of the multi-year topping pattern of the S&P 500 I've posted a few times now. The previous post is linked below in Related Ideas. The situation today adds to the previous update... we've continued the massive rally, extending this historic bull market even farther and poking over the megaphone top. We've recently had some downside and fallen back into the pattern. The recent rally has extended the downside target of the megaphone pattern even lower. Interestingly the predicted downside target now points right to the lows of the 2000 tech crash and the 2008 financial crisis. Do I still think we're headed into a bear market and likely below the bottom of the Megaphone? YES! There is no rational argument for the market continuing higher. Bull markets eventually die and bear markets are born. This is true even if the Robinhood traders are too young to have ever seen a bear market. Despite a terrible economic environment due to covid, everyone is long and chasing momo-stocks like TSLA and AAPL expecting the Fed to prevent any downside. Everyone has so ignored the potential downside and are long on margin, that brokers have started forcing a bit of restraint recently by increasing margin maintenance requirements (which restricts lending to traders). A similar thing happened as the 2000 tech crash started. In addition to the brokers tightening lending, banks are also tightening lending and that's an even bigger indicator of an upcoming bear market. To see the clear pattern of bank tightening into bear markets, below is a chart of Federal Reserve data on bank tightening going back to 1995. Every time bank lending tightening goes above 40% or so, there has been a bear market and related crash. This year bank tightening for loans has shot up to over 70% and yet the equity market hasn't caught on yet. See an image of data at the below link (or go to fred.stlouisfed.org search on "tightening" and find it yourself). The blue and red lines are bank tightening standards for small and large firms. The green line is the Wilshire 5000 to show what the equity market was doing at the time. Look at what happens when we get bank tightening spikes--NOT GOOD: imgur.com (click on the image itself to make it bigger) So it's not just me who sees a bad economic environment, it's most of banking (including brokerages). And they are doing something about it--they are making it harder to borrow, reducing their own risk. These bank actions not only suggests a bear market is coming, it can cause a bear market. The reduction of bank lending takes money out of the economy (as banks are responsible for most of the credit creation into the economy) and that can CAUSE a deflationary contraction just by itself. This is long term data, so there's no specific timing on this. But the tightening has already happened and has not remotely started to decline. The economy is only continuing along due to government stimulus. Once a bear starts the market can decline for years. I'm surprised the market hasn't already crashed, but IMO a bear market can arrive at any time. Anyone chasing stocks higher at this point (especially on leverage) is nuts, again in my opinion. In addition all the indexes look like hell with obvious double tops formed or forming. But that's a shorter-term comment for another post...
SP:SPXShort
by MystryBox
17
Federal Bank is bullish for short trendWe have confirmation on three basis points here : 1. Uptrend so only buy position. 2. Broken structure zone with good volume. 3. Retest or last kiss checked on 1H time frame. 4. Bullish as on 4H time frame three green soldiers are visible. Action-Plan : Enter at current price and trail the stop loss to the above resistance zone if it breaks it. Safe traders can exit at upper structure and aggressive can hold but trail stop loss. Risk Reward is almost 1.89 on the upside. "Keep hustling and making small losses to ride the big profits"
BSE:FEDERALBNKLong
by Abhishek_TradersSin
Uj Bears vs bullsRaging right about now but I feel like if it breaks through the floor then it’s going to hit the take profit so I suggest buy now in the rage and put your stop above the ceiling so your stop is little and your reward is high and you enter at discount price or you can enter when it break through the liquidity and put your stop as the new ceiling a lil above it so then you know that’s just a fake if it take you out to get the stops then ride back up or if it don’t take u out it’s going to continue to ride untill the second tp for a good risk to reward ratio
by LailaBlake6775
1
XLF- Mac-D serving as an early buy signal.AMEX:XLF has seen some channel trading from 2018 too early this year. Finding its range peak in February of 2020 it crashed hard and has been working it's way up since. In red and green (A-D) are the main support and resistance levels and I have noted on the MAC-D where price has reversed, and also accounted for some major financial events such as the Chinese trade war and COVID-19 pandemic. XLF seems to have found its new channel and will either retest its support on the downside and hold the channel or test the SMAs as resistance on the upside and possibly find its way into the former price range leading up to the election. I am going to use MAC-D as my signal to buy as we near a cross.
AMEX:XLF
by crawfordpaul