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Bank Nifty Oversold BankNifty has taken a near 20% hit since the beginning of this year due to bearish economic outlook as well as a massive burden of 7 lakh crore + NPA. The budget has been published and the government has pledged to recapitalize PSUs by a measly 25k crore for now. I believe that the banking sector is yet to see its real lows however for the time being a stabilization in sentiment and a retrace from the fear induced overselling should push banknifty closer to the 15.5k range before it makes its next leg down. There is also a possibility that it can break out of this downwards channel and test supply zone at 17k depending on sentiment in the coming months. Within 2 years I expect banknifty to reach lows well below 10k. First TP 14.8. Second TP 15.5. Third TP 17k. SL @ 12.6
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by RahulAndra
2
Bank Of Baroda LongAs RBI is facing tremendous pressure to bail out PS/Corporate banks I believe that we will slowly begin to see a short term correction in the bank sector. I expected BOB to either break out and test supply zone at 190 before potentially making another leg up. The second scenario is that the bearish sentiment forces BOB to test demand zone at 100-120 before it continues to test the supply zone. This is big short term reversal point for BANKNIFTY. RR at this level is high.
NSE:BANKBARODALong
by RahulAndra
FED POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR EURUSD (Dec Meeting)Hi All! As I did back in August with the september meeting, I have decided to create a possibility of different Scenarios for the EURUSD pair for the month of December. I have outlined 3 scenarios based on the price range seen and recheable so far this year, this would give you a good idea of where to buy, sell or hold positions if you are thinking about trading in Dec. As ALWAYS! please be careful what you do, this is not for beginners but Im sure it would be a great time to try a few things with demo money as well. In a nutshell... IF THE FED RAISE THE RATES - the question here is not will you?, or, will your not? The question is, how much? and for how long? - investors will have to digest the FOMC minutes to make sure they understand how much the FED is prepared to raise and what is it going to be the path of increases. in every outcome there is an idea of what would happen if the rate hike is symbolic, when I say Symbolic I mean so small that is just to show they are taking some action but not enough to make Institutional investors change their mind about the Euro. IF THE FED HOLDS ON THE RATE HIKE - this would just take us to the same place we are at the moment, important to watch that pivot line (green) because we will continue to pass over and below this line for a long time and only the ECB decisions on the EURO QE purchasing program will decide what moves the pair (and puntualities like Greece, migrant crisis and also fundamental news) IF THE FED DECIDES TO LOWER THE RATES - this is the less of all outcomes, chances of this is nearly zero and this is why I havent mentioned it on the chart but there still a possibility, if this happens, forget about parity, the Euro and other majors would instantly take over the dollar and we could see levels we havent seen for 2-4 years. Crazy eh? well... we know central banks can be crazy (remember SNB flash crash begining this year) So... here we go, no only the action of increasing will move the market, but also how much is increased and for how long, watch out for inflation and unemployment as these will be the triggers. any questions? - ask me here or on my twitter account @SolidSnakeUk89
by SolidSnake
1
MACRO VIEW: USDRUB CAN REVERT ON CENTRAL BANK SUPPORTUSDRUB was trending upwards in correlation with WTI Oil descend since beginning of July Currently Oil fell to its 2015 lows (slightly below them now) while USDRUB was holding 65 level with apparent Central Bank of Russia support. CBR is selling USD against RUB in attempts to stabilize the national currency. If the Oil trend down stops at this level, USDRUB is likely to bounce back to 1st st deviation from quarterly (66-day) mean, and then to the mean itself, ceasing its uptrend.
Short
by Killy_Mel
Opportunity in the bloodAs of now technicals are confirming a potential ab=cd that could be formed in NBG over the next few days if the bottom support range of 1~1.23 held providing an excellent 3.88 risk reward. Some upcoming catalyst: -Greece reform plans (April 8~9) -NBG quarterly earnings. 4/2/2015? I think it is quite unlikely that Greece will be leaving Eurozone (yet). Even if that does happen, I expect short term decline in NBG with a even larger potential chance of recovery in the future. This is a level that I'll accumulate more positions for 5 years or so.
NLong
by LastBattle
8
Greece ready to continue back upMy Elliott Count for the Greece ETF is looking ready for an upcoming bull run. I count us near the end of a wave ii, in an extended wave 3. As all us EW chartists know, this is an ideal spot for entering long, or buying call options. However, Here is a BEARISH scenario, where A=C and we are just starting the wave down.... This appears to be in sync with the National Bank of Greece (NBG) in which I have been closely following, here is a chart of that: Would love to hear from other Elliott wave chartists,
AMEX:GREKLong
by Nathanael
1