Banker235
"Winner takes all" on EURGBP for UK Elections... after what was another upsetting weekend in the city, sadly, no surprises!!! Elections now taking centre stage in UK alongside Saudi/Qatar relations.
We'll wrap up the macro details in a few as I will be publishing 2 setups on EURGBP for those wishing to take part these will include references to the interpretation/context of recent numbers and politics.
-> The options ... Long or short.
Those choosing to take part have 2 triggers to pick from; price and fibs and we can compare at the end which was the best (if any).
(i) FIBS
Longs ->
Shorts ->
(ii) PRICE
Longs ->
Shorts ->
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Choose from;
BUY : Limit BUY @ 0.865x -> TP1 0.882x -> TP2 0.900x
SELL : Limit SELL @ 0.881x -> TP1 0.845x -> TP2 0.823x
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This is the range we are currently trading in:
Bottom of range : 0.8350x
Top of range : 0.9270x
Mid : 0.8750x
=> Conservatives remaining with unchanged majority, expectations will offer a relief rally towards the 0.84xx handle after the election. This would give us continuation of the range (Mid/Low) of 0.84xx - 0.88xx
=> Conservatives losing majority and Corbyn the communist getting the hung parliament we will see expectations towards the 0.90xx handle in a swift knee jerk before settling in the 0.84xx - 0.88x range till the end of this year when we will start to trade the impact of Brexit in equities.
Come on jump in and make a call!!
this is worth $1 MILLION DOLLARS!!Another brilliant day across the currency board; exhaustion legs in sterling and Euro to see us through for the summer. Now focus shifting over to /CL, with OPEC keeping prices in current range and Canada's Q1 GDP prints being v.good this is a good opportunity to look for buys on a pullback .
Tracking 1.33xx - 1.34xx like a hawk where I will look for a move back towards the 1.40xx handle; US equities are aligned for the prescient 'sell in may and go away' and June hike is a done deal... lets review in a few.
GL
$IMMU After a nice deal with SGEN last week the EV is 400m this is likely as high as it will ever get. Awful pipeline with sacituzumab (an archaic chemotherapy style) we should see this move back to sub 3 in the near term before a further push to 2.30.
Time will tell!
EURCHF seems determined to fall...Guys...
Above 1.0711 we can see a near term base for a recovery bak to 1.0726. Beyond 1.0771 is needed to mark further downside.
EURCHF below 1.0711 can keep the immediate risk lower for the June 2016 spike and 61.8% retracement of the April-15/February-16 rally at 1.0623/04.
Below here is needed to mark a more important top for 1.0445/40.
The SNB may also believe it is inevitable that some gradual but temporary appreciation manifests in the lead up to one of the most important elections for Europe over the last decade. The EURCHF may be seen as a self correcting phenomenon with the Le Pen winning.
It may be very possible for this to reach parity, even with SNB FX intervention this continues to fall gradually.
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All the best