Citigroup ($C): Fourth Test of Key Levels Since 2018The shares of Citigroup gained an impressive 7% today following its earnings report, which delivered a beat ✅. The company is projecting revenue between $83.5 billion and $84.5 billion for 2025, up from $81.1 billion last year and $77.1 billion in the year prior (excluding divestitures). Positive news for both the company and its investors!
We’ve been monitoring NYSE:C but haven’t found a trigger yet—this might change soon.
The stock is approaching its most significant resistance zone since 2018, a level tested three times in the past. Could the fourth test finally break through? We remain cautious, expecting that another pullback, even a minor one, might be necessary to push past $83. If this pullback materializes, we’ll evaluate opportunities to position ourselves.
Currently, there’s a bearish RSI divergence, and unless the stock can make a higher high compared to 2021, another major pullback remains possible. However, a short position doesn’t align with our strategy at the moment. We’d need to see a lower time frame structure change to consider that route.
This stock doesn’t lend itself well to Elliott Wave analysis as it has been trending sideways for years, and we’re not forcing patterns onto it.
Stay alert for future opportunities on NYSE:C
Banking
4 Big Banks and their relation to KBEWeekly time frame....White line front runs a
change in direction...be it temporary or permanent
to long to explain...but white peak before blue peak
and things head down...if blue continues with white
or stays flat...there is little change to direction
or price just chops sideways a bit.
use other indicators to confirm...but white line can
bounce off or hug envelope channel and explain price
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The 4 headless horsemen of banking are next to each other...
Does something seem quite interesting among them since each is way different in area of investment...political control...money-metals exposure....MBS and the like...
So why are three pretty close to copies if you glance for more than a second or two, yet the fourth is somewhat similar but trending differently...
Just an interesting thought experiment
Goldman Sachs... GS looks like a top unless they pump moreLike the prior Idea of mine...most things have given back the Trump-bump election push and are on the way down or skating on thin ice and ready to begin a hard fall.
This has shown similar patterns from previous times.
The lines are hull moving averages or averages that are envelope or 3x exponential. mix them together and you get predictors that are pretty good in general.
Goldman Sachs ... simple levels, earnings and future tradeUsing simple lines that are from key pivot points and using a "Bow string method"- taking a fib channel and connecting to highs or lows and putting the third point of the channel tool on the lowest or highest point between the first two highs or lows respectively.
You can see a top may of been in along the top line...granted it was due to the election crack up boom attempt number 1...probably 4 more coming to try and prop things up.
Anywho...here are all the touches to show congruence back to 2009...the last time a crap load free-falled into the bowl that is the economic market.
Check out the Minds on here about GS I'll put up for more analysis showing why i say that top line is quite significant...
Goldman Sachs ($GS): Trend Channel in FocusGoldman Sachs has been trending higher since our analysis two months ago, prompting us to reevaluate our stance. We’ve concluded that it makes more sense to remain bullish for now and not anticipate a bearish scenario at this stage. We are particularly encouraged by how consistently NYSE:GS has respected its trend channel, which strengthens our belief that it will continue to hold. However, there is a significant concern: we don’t want to see NYSE:GS losing this trend channel or creating a false breakdown, only to trap bears and continue higher.
Goldman Sachs has its earnings call scheduled for the same day as BlackRock and JP Morgan this Wednesday. This adds pressure, and with additional uncertainty from the upcoming political shifts, such as the inauguration of Trump, the potential impact on NYSE:GS , NYSE:BLK , and NYSE:JPM remains unclear.
Setting a limit at the 23.6%-38.2% Fibonacci levels feels too risky given the current environment and the uncertainty in the near future. While we favor this updated bullish scenario over the previous one, the bearish scenario isn’t entirely off the table. It could quickly come back into play if NYSE:GS loses key support levels.
For now, NYSE:GS needs to touch the $536–$489 zone and reclaim the trend channel promptly to validate our bullish scenario. If it fails to do so, we’ll need to approach with extreme caution, and as a result, we are not rushing into a trade at the moment.
JP Morgan (JPM): Correction on the HorizonJP Morgan ( NYSE:JPM ) is back on our radar as the upcoming earnings season begins, with the banking sector leading the reports. We’ve analyzed JP Morgan before, and the current setup offers intriguing opportunities. Since 2023, the stock has maintained a steady upward trend that continues into 2024.
Currently, NYSE:JPM appears to be in sub-wave ((iii)) within the larger wave (3) or possibly wave 5. However, we anticipate that sub-wave ((iv)) correction is yet to occur, aligning with the broader structural narrative of the chart.
Presently, the stock is trading near a critical trendline originating from the top of sub-wave ((i)). This trendline, which has shifted from resistance to support after multiple touchpoints, now risks being broken. Should it fail, the price could fall from its current level of $243 into a range between $204 and $173. A drop to $173 would represent the maximum correction in our view, while a more realistic pullback would fall within the $204 to $188 range.
On the bullish side, the wave 5 could push up to approximately $260, a modest increase from the current price. This scenario fits within the Elliott Wave framework, anticipating a wave ((iv)) correction before the final upward moves to complete wave 5 and the larger wave (3).
XAUUSD 10/11/24XAU Followed our newly established selling buyer last week, a clear shift to the downside. Of course, this was helped by the US election and the results. We now have the same scenario and the same bias in place. We have one area of supply that has already been tapped into. We have 2 liquid highs that are situated at that area of supply and then a higher point of supply which is untapped. Now ultimately we aim for the low as always a pullback is not necessary, but this is gold. So there is a scenario that all these points for selling will fail and we will then aim for the all time high. Our current bias is bearish if this changes during the week and we will update everybody. if it does not we will continue to sell this down to lower pricing before institute becomes interested once again.
Follow your plan and stick to your risk!
DXY H8 - Long SignalDXY H8
We are picking up where we left off last week here on the dollar index, markets are breaking the trading zones we were expecting, but we haven't really seen anything of a correction yet, the least i would expect is to see 101.850 price see a test again.
We don't have too much in the way of resistance at the moment, but we can see that price is exhausting where it is, at 102.500 price. We would expect resistance at 103, as this is an area of confluence, built up of whole number, supply and resistance.
JP Morgan Chase (JPM): Bearish Scenario on the HorizonYou have to hear us out on this one, as we are presenting a very bearish scenario, but we will explain why we think it could unfold this way.
First, let's look at the weekly chart (yes, the weekly chart). This chart shows a near-perfect Elliott wave and Fibonacci count, respecting all the important theoretical points well. If this analysis is correct, we are currently in the last push of wave (5) to end this large cycle. After that, we should see lower prices for a higher wave II. We give the current wave (5) a maximum target of $271, but it is more likely to drop before we reach that level.
In the the main chart, we zoomed in to make it clearer. Everything depends on whether we are correct about wave (3) and wave (4). If our count is accurate, wave (3) should conclude between the 227.2% and 261.8% levels. NYSE:JPM has formed a bearish divergence on the RSI, and if the stock drops below $190, we expect prices to fall further, ideally between $178.46 and $149, for one last push higher to conclude this cycle.
It will take some time until we get there, but good things take time, and we are ready for it to play out. Alerts are set, and the plan is in place. 😎
Is Warren Buffett Losing Faith in Bank of America?A Strategic Shift with Far-Reaching Implications
Warren Buffett, the legendary investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, has taken a significant step that has sent ripples through the financial world. Berkshire, a long-time major shareholder of Bank of America (BofA), has been steadily selling its stake in the bank. This strategic move, totaling over $3.8 billion in sales, has raised eyebrows and sparked speculation about the future of BofA.
Buffett's decision to reduce Berkshire's holdings in BofA is a departure from his typical investment strategy, which often involves long-term, unwavering commitments. This shift raises questions about his perception of the bank's prospects and the broader financial landscape.
The implications of this move extend beyond Berkshire and BofA. As one of the most closely watched investors in the world, Buffett's actions can influence market sentiment and investor behavior. His decision to sell BofA shares could signal a potential shift in his outlook on the banking sector or broader economic conditions.
To learn more about the reasons behind Buffett's decision, the potential impact on Bank of America, and the broader implications for the financial sector, please visit our website.
GLE - Société Générale: Revenues were €6.7b, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at €1.41, an impressive 35% ahead of estimates.
Trading at 70% below estimate of its fair value
Earnings are forecast to grow 21% per year
JPM as A Gauge For Bull Run
I consider JPM as a source of truth in this bull run for several reasons:
Post-Banking Crisis Fragility: Especially following the banking crisis in 2023, banks are more fragile, and money has consolidated in some bigger, safer banks.
Exposure to Various Crises: They have a lot of skin in the game, so any crisis coming from either a tech bust, Japan, bonds, or inflation will surely affect them.
Too Big to Fail: They most probably won't go bankrupt; they are too big to fail.
Correlation with S&P 500: JPM is almost perfectly correlated with the S&P 500.
Lately, I have been observing new all-time highs from both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and of course, JPM. It hasn't even dropped below the weekly 20 MA as it did in 2021. So, it is still uncertain if this is a breather or the beginning of the end. Over the last four weeks, the wicks were up but pressured down. Making another local top will be the third in 2024, and that also create 2nd bearish divergence on RSI, so I would watch out for a quick meltdown.
HDFC Long ScenarioI believe HDFC will move past Rs.2000/-
Despite Posting good results HDFCs price is trading in btw 12% Zone (1540-ATH) Since March 2021
My Thoughts:
HDFC was trading at High valuations due to its leadership in sector before 2020. Now HDFC leadership is gone, just like Asian paints superiority .So, Valuations are adjusting and price not moving with good results.
With Reduction of PB Value to 3.
Best Entry Zone is 1520-1540.
TGTs are 1920,2000,2100
US Bank about to implode! Regional Banking is gonna take a hit!First you have the FDIC come out and say no matter what we can whether a large US Bank failure - out of nowhere! Japan is stuck in a corner, can't sell bonds to defend its currency, and can't raise rates enough. Like every Central Bank they're stuck. So now a large US bank will be "allowed" to fail that will give Powell the excuse to cut rates - leading to a large reinflation boost (precious metals).
Biden even hinted at rates coming down in July so this regional bank implosion has to happen soon. I don't see banking in the USA doing good long term because the banking structure needs to be consolidated to isolate and do away with cash so they can bring out CBDC's. At that point banks will be "stakeholders" which is fancy speak for fascist government control over corporations, but from an international level.
Also, TTM Squeeze indicator is loaded on every TF except Monthly, which showed that it already went off and is gathering steam for the next leg down in the breakout, but a very powerful move since this is signaling on the weekly chart.
Is Absa setting itself for upside to R181.95Cup and Handle seems to be forming on Absa.
There was little supply (selling) which caused a major push up on the bank stock.
Banks have lagged many of the leading markets, and so hopefully they play catch up once the JSE TOp 40 picks up yet again.
RIght now it's in Medium Probability territory.
MPT
Price>20
Price<200
Target R181.95
NiKKEi the Empire who saw Tomorrow 100 years ago
the OG in quantitative zero cost coupons and negative rates
with subways in the 1930s
touchscreens ai robotics in the 70s
and rise of gaming in the 80s
still is a decade ahead among developed countries
and 100 years++ ahead the rest of the emerging economies
MAHABANKTriangle pattern Breakout .
Good volumes.
Consolidation done .
Above all Key EMA.
Good for Short term.
Do Like ,Comment , Follow for regular Updates...
Keep Learning ,Keep Earning...
Disclaimer : This is not a Buy or Sell recommendation. I am not SEBI Registered. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investments . This is for Educational purpose only.
BANKINDIA Looks like a Multiple Breakouts .
Rounding bottom , Range Breakout .
Price Consolidated for a long time.
Above all Key EMA.
Good for Short term.
Do Like ,Comment , Follow for regular Updates...
Keep Learning ,Keep Earning...
Disclaimer : This is not a Buy or Sell recommendation. I am not SEBI Registered. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investments . This is for Educational purpose only.
IOB Price gave a close above the Trendline.
Looks so good on Charts.
Consolidation done .
Volume Buildup seen.
Above all EMA.
Good for Short term and Long term.
Do Like ,Comment , Follow for regular Updates...
Keep Learning ,Keep Earning...
Disclaimer : This is not a Buy or Sell recommendation. I am not SEBI Registered. Please consult your financial advisor before making any investments . This is for Educational purpose only.
AXP, THE PLATINUM CARD ISN'T ACTUALLY PLATINUMTrends and price targets marked.
Things are overextended
Potential to bounce back and catch more upside even with the overextension.
Guideline is more for backtracking, but it could potentially look something like this.
Follow trends and price targets rather than guideline, it is more to get an idea of what things could look like.
247 or so looks like a top to me especially with the trend formation
I would suggest watching a break on the lowest green support trend
and I would also suggest watching a rejection on the rejection trend.
Should we break out of rejection trend, probably 360.
Drop will be steep, but the most natural path would be the 247 drop to 80.
I would say, if you're looking to enter, wait and be patient. If there is more upside, you're not missing much. If downside is coming, there are still trend support lines that can see bounces in price, meaning, you'll likely be able to find a better entry that allows for less risk.
ABSA showing major downside to come to R76.08Head and Shoulders has formed ont he dail since Early 2022...
The price broke below the neckline and has since then, been showing lower highs within the down channel,
We also have confirmed downside with the Moving Averages.
Price< 20 and <200
It looks bleak but the system is the system, so the first target is set to R76.08
Deutsche Bank: Next Big Leap Ahead?
Starting our analysis for the Deutsche Bank chart at the Corona low of $4.45, we have since seen an uptrend developing with a Wave (1) and already a Wave (2), placing us in the overarching Wave (3). Within this Wave (3), we're looking for potential entry points. We've also developed Waves 1 and 2 and are currently, as seen on the 4-hour chart. We want to enter at the end of this coming wave ((iv)). We expect to reach between 38% and 50% retracement, with the possibility of hitting 61.8%, but not much lower, as we would need to invalidate the scenario if the price falls into the level of Wave 1 for an extended period.
Looking upward, we set our target at a minimum of €16.16, which corresponds to the 161.8% extension. The chart clearly shows that we are experiencing lower highs and equal or lower lows. Thus, we believe there will be a downturn before the price moves higher. Our entry zone is at $11.37, with our stop-loss just above $10, but also just below the invalidation zone.
Visa (V): Bullish Momentum in the Financial SectorVisa (V): NYSE:V
Visa, a key player in the financial sector, is currently in the overarching cycle of Wave (5). It appears we've concluded Wave (4) at $174.60 and are on the path to finalizing Wave (5). However, this process will take some time, as we are now in a subordinate Wave 3, which is on the verge of completing a circled subordinate Wave ((iii)).
Consequently, Wave ((iv)) is likely next. While a rise to the maximum of $310.50 is possible, we anticipate a sell-off in the coming days for Visa, potentially down to $260 or even $243. Anything below this range would be excessively deep. This range should mark a potential turning point for Visa for Wave ((v)) or 3. We're closely monitoring the situation and will place a limit order upon observing any weakness.
On a daily timeframe, we are in the middle of the Wave 3 in red and are still bullish.