USDWTI H4 - Long SetupUSDWTI H4
Something we were following last week, took a couple of short positions on this pair for 1R and 1.3R before being stopped at entry/profit.
We have now started to see an upside breakout of both S/R and trend sequence. A bit more of a convincing breakout and subsequent retest could offer us long entries.
Banking
UBS Group AG (UBSG.vx)We can found a technical figure Triangle in the Swiss company UBS Group AG (UBSG.vx) on a daily chart. UBS Group AG is a Swiss multinational investment bank and financial services company founded and based in Switzerland. UBS client services are known for their strict bank–client confidentiality and culture of banking secrecy. The Triangle has broken through the support line on 09/09/2021. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 12 days towards 14.595 CHF. According to the experts, your stop loss should be around 15.485 CHF if you enter this position.
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$BLK: The Undisputed Heavy WeightAs we look forward into the future we may continue to see Blackrock's influence grow from an asset management company into something far greater. With deep pockets and potentially blue skies for the market along with a rising rate environment, we'll see if $BLK can get it done in the weeks / months / years to come.
$UPST - W3 of W3 of W5? Upstart needs to stay above $112.85, and cross $128 and then $135. If it can clear $135, $142 and $150 aren't a long way off.
Invalidation level is 105.58....below that level, it wave 4 would have crossed the wave 1 high invalidating this count.
My final target is ~265, but that's still a long way away i believe. The above mentioned levels are the ones to watch for the short term.
Watch for a bounce between 116-120.
TL;DR:
PT1 = 135
PT2 = 142
PT3 = 150
SL = 112.85
Inv = 105.58
USDWTI H1 - Short SetupUSDWTI H1
Looking to see some sort of reversal here, on these H1 charts lower timeframe confirmation is usually required IMO.
Reason being, we typically move away from our big number, psychological numbers, key H4 supply etc... So in essence we are trading interim zones and banking on lower timeframe continuations.
Waiting for a nice price rejection or structure break and retest is important.
Forex & Stock & macro news n°34> Bear utopia: Gamestop (GME) short interest hits lowest level in years, China A50 meltdown
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GME, which is down 70% from its high earlier this year, has seen its short interest continue to dwindle as the share price has been ranging for 6 months, likely causing short sellers to look for other opportunities. The short interest being so low compared to usual, and the price looking so heavy it might be about to break, makes it interesting to squeeze these retail lemons for those that don't mind waiting a bit and taking a risk.
After the short squeeze the percentage of short went from 150% of float to 40%. Since then it has progressively gone down to the present less than 13%
The high volatility makes it important for the proponents of asymmetrical risk reward and "technical analysis" to pay attention to the price action and wait for a decent ABC pullback for a good entry, as close as possible to a logical stop loss. The stock is visibly in complacency and the eternal bagholders are anxious and nervous, easily raging at bears. The stock which has vanished from the media and people minds may be about to break. It's when they least expect it.
Bears will also be happy to know that the chinese stock market has crashed, but it may be at the bottom of an ABC, the communists might bailout the market, again. If they do so will they let us known in advance as they sometimes do? I have no idea if it is time to buy or not. The media are not paying much attention to it, fortunatly I am here to warn people. I just don't know what to do with this info and what the repercussions will be.
> US divide within the divide, Australia using repression choppers, France revolution
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The US divide and "cold civil war" is continuing, with for example universities holding "anti-racism" workshop where students are taught to "accept white inferiority". No comment. Mayors in Florida crossed the Rubicon and are defying the governors orders. New York governor got accused of rape or sexual harassment and Biden asked him to resigned, he responded by threatening to bring everyone down with him, on the official governor website. A US infrastructure bill will make it illegal to question the CDC.
Australia has done mass arrests, and is flying helicopters and drones broadcasting the state propaganda and patrolling the country to find and punish people camping all by themselves in remote locations, who knows, they might transmit covid to squirrels? The Australian executive government has been ordered by the judicial branch to make public their covid-19 documents, behind their executive orders (a synonym is dictat), but they have disobeyed and still have not made those public, they plan on appealing the decision. Australia police has the "right" to freely enter into people homes and even remove their kids from them, no court order no nothing, they do as they see fit. China has condemned Australia violations of human rights and the double standard of those that so often have criticized the CCP.
France, which is working on creating a Ministry of Truth, yes, really, just like in 1984, has introduced a sanitary pass, and a minister even said with a smile that people who would not vaccinate would technically lose their jobs but without getting unemployment benefits. Several ministers have said "let them have cake" with a vicious smile. The french public is outraged and is protesting on a regular basis with the last official numbers at 250,000 protestors in the middle of holidays, of course the government numbers are below reality. In french islands the crowd even opened fire on police and 9 officers got hit.
> West fearful of coming political collapse, taking steps to hold onto power by force
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Virtually all of the population are wageslaves and the state has enormous economic control over them, to solidify their control, the EU is banning cash payments over 10,000 euros. But this is not enough for the crumbling ruling class, and so both the US and France are currenctly testing police robots. Reminds me of hedge funds consultations a few years ago, they were all buying bunkers and asking experts how to keep control on their security guards "use obedience collars?". France has made laws making it illegal to film police, and has normalized the use of drones already. This enables to little minority to hold onto power, it has many advantages for them such as blindly following orders including opening fire on the populace, and there is no risk it will show human sympathy for the unwashed masses. They are calling the robots "cute dogs" to not scare the population, it is childish and incredibly stupid but as always the dumbest members of society will fall for it.
This dystopian nightmare is nothing new, back in the Bronze Age small "elites" subjugated the population by using bronze armor and weapons. They are very expensive and offer a huge fighting advantage, the population could not afford them and had no solution. All the ancient kingdoms disappeared in the iron age as weapons became cheaper. There are other solutions. For example the slavs were getting raped and enslaved by huns in the 6th century, but a french trader decided to sell weapons to them (and only to their side) and even helped them organise, they broke free and the trader became the first slav king. Another solution is invading armies. The population side with the conquering army. Persian chad Darius built the largest empire ever that contained 50% of earth population, he asked his politicians or bureaucrats "I lowered the taxes, are they fair now?", they answered "yes" and so Darius said "Good. Divide them in 2.". The nobles of Babylon, Egypt etc had inhuman taxes, to give you an idea of how bad it was the taxes back then were nearly as high as today, and some farmers had to sell themselves into slavery to pay their taxes.
Putin said that the west not only became absurd (Marcus Tullius Cicero said: The closer the collapse of the Empire the crazier its laws.), but reminded the ruling class that the USSR too thought they could be unfair and ignore discontent because they were "so big and powerful". France ruling class might have gotten the message because they have started to acknowledge the protests and even stopped calling them "antivaxx". They act tough but they are terrified. For example when a bunch of retired generals wrote an open letter saying "the military might have to act" (to defend ghettos from terrorists) the french government panicked and read "we might have to act by arresting the government and declaring martial law", there are many "hints" people can see that reveal what people really think.
> Conspiracy theory: The US plan on keeping rates low to continue to steal the populace
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Not only does this not seem far fetched but it is logical and seems obvious. The FED is now openly working for the US government, you'd have to have the wrong number of chromosomes to disagree as they literally openly say they cooperate with the treasury... I don't know what more people want but some are stupid enough to still call that a conspiracy theory. Anyway the speculative part is that the FED, which now works for the government, does not want to increase rates, as the broke government has massive debt and keeps increasing its spending, now at an alarming rate.
Official US documents from branches of the government have been repeating for more than 2 decades that the situation was not sustainable, so I'm pretty sure they are aware of it. Like Romania and others, the only way for the ruling class to continue this pyramid scheme is to force new people in it, and luckily for them the population has no clue how it all works, so they will just use low rates to steal money from them. They reduce their debt via inflation (average suckers pay). They borrow more at low (de facto negative) rates. They pay back what they owe with no interest. Simple. The clueless "normies" that laugh at you are the ones that get bled dry by this, love karma. They will whine about inequality and after 30 years it will reach their brain that prices and profits went up but their wages did not.
The middle class, and even the rich but not ultra rich, pays for the government games through their wages, their savings, their retirements, their dwindling standard of life. Millenials will be the first generation to be worse off than their parents.
The poor profit from government spending but make no mistake eventually they will pay, it's just more of a "later" or "one time" thing. They have no money so they will pay in blood. Riots in poor hoods, no access to food, goodbye healthcare (already started), and so on.
I think urban dwellers will suffer too, it's likely there is a mass die-off. Very easy to block the roads with trucks or tanks. They're so concentrated and not behind castle walls with long lasting supplies. Strategically (or tactically) their position is known as "suicide". Interestingly french truckers have called for strikes (no more food deliveries) and for a blocus of cities with their massive trucks. Urbans think africans are too stupid to survive, actually they have more than enough food, the starving happens in areas with civil war (everywhere lol) and is strategical; they will soon learn this harsh lesson. Government has been warned of exceptionally fragile supply bottlenecks but as usual they couldn't care less, all that matters is the stuff visible to plebes that gets them re-elected.
> Many small and a few big but not biggest central banks increase their interest rates
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The US and Europe are not moving theirs. But plenty of countries that are significant "exotics" and "small" ones are. Brazil increased their rate by 100 bps. Russia which now holds 0 usdollars also raised theirs. And Countries we don't really trade including Moldova (100 bps up to 3.25%), Armenia, Georgia, South Korea. The west are just turning into massive pyramid schemes and slowly collapsing. The share of world GDP of the west already is crossing below 50%. The dominance is ending.
Other interesting news is that the PBoC are increasing their "green finance" with low cost funding, and are now more convinced than ever to crackdown on crypto. Might be interesting to hold some currencies if rates keep going up without too much inflation (just they maybe weaken against the US ponzi scheme). Just avoid Iran, a Bahrain court convicted them of money laundering. Once the US falls as they did in Afghanistan then maybe Iran will be a smart choice.
Will be pretty cool to have the ability of building a diversified portfolio finally.
> G30 call for a reform of US treasury, ECB alerts on credit risk and economic fragility
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I don't want to go too much into details because it is boring banking stuff. It's not fun like a revolution or a collapse. But quickly:
The G30 suggested the US treasury gets reformed, as bouts of dysfunction become increasingly common, and have urged the US to "increase, diversify and stabilise" market-making. To sum up they found that it did not serve its safe-haven purpose (wasn't their "go to" when they wanted quick cash), huh well it's still the "go-to safe haven" of the plebes. Even the bankers dodge the USD, meanwhile it keeps going up because noobs keep irrationally buying it. The group of bankers in particular mentionned the ability to function in time of stress, sort of repeating their "go to safe haven" point. They REALLY want to protect THEIR money.
The G30 is made up of current and former heads of the central banks of 17 countries, as well as 2 chairmen from the FED, 2 from the ECB, and a few from international institutions (Basel com., IMF, BIS, World Bank). And the former president of Mexico. Don't ask me why.
The ECB for their part are also worried about stress. They did a stress test and found there was banking fragility. I think overall they are satisfied but found vulnerabilities in particular in credit risk, in other words another debt default chain reaction and them, the bankers, not getting their money back.
NZDCAD H4 - Long SetupNZDCAD H4
Resistance has seen an upside breach. Waiting for a support pullback, once of the main perks trading this strategy, regardless of whether a zone holds and rejects, or breaks and retest. We can also prepare and measure the trade or alternative trade, depending on what happens.
As annotated, waiting for the pullback (just like DXY H4 chart) before looking to load up on long positions, TP initially would be the breakout high extension.
Nice H1/H4 trend which looks clean too, so a nice continuation of that would work in bull favour.
DXY H4 - Long SetupDXY H4
We covered this yesterday in the analysis webinar, since the EUR/LON session has kicked off, market volume is back we have seen an upside USD resistance break.
Need to be patient now and wait for price to retest/pullback back to our demand/support zone so we can eye up potential USD*** long opportunities, or ***USD short opportunities.
BYFC in a familiar place right nowBYFC has been doing well, obviously, there's no denying that. However, it has approached another key level that is clearly seen on this chart. The 618 fib has been a constant level of resistance ever time BYFC climbs this high, over the last year. So this week, volume is likely going to be the potential driver of direction. Will it finally leave the 618 fib in the dust or is history about to repeat itself again?
"In the past five days, shares of BYFC stock have shot up by over 12%. In the past six months, shares have shot up by a solid 53% or so. The main reason behind this solid gain is the overall housing market continuing to rise in value during this time. And as a company that is heavily correlated to the real estate market, BYFC is worth watching if the price of homes continues to rise. So, considering all of this, will BYFC stock be on your watchlist moving forward?"
Quote Source: 7 Top Penny Stocks to Watch That You Probably Haven’t Heard Of
CHFJPY H4 - Short SetupCHFJPY H4
Yet to have broken support, but certainly looking like it wants to with the way this H4 candle is looking likely to close. Lower timeframe selloff and pullbacks seem very sequential so far.
A break and retest of support/resistance could be the next entry point to jump in with short positioning.
Sector early indicator? Yes, Banks often are.The Banking sector, a sub-sector of the Financial sector - here represented by NASDAQ Bank Index (BANK , in green) - often acts as an early indicator against the broader market (here represented by the DJIA in gray, and the NASDAQ in black)... falling from peaks: as early as from 1998, in Feb 2007, steadily declining from Jan 2011, continuing underperformance from July 2018, and in Dec 2019.
GBPUSD H4 - Short SetupGBPUSD H4
Approaching our 1.42 whole number resistance price again, offering just in excess or 3.2R from resistance down to support, covering the majority of left side wicks.
Daily/H4 resistance, 1.42 whole number, breakout/yearly highs. Multiple confluences on this trading zone that have failed to see a sustained break above.
DXY moving sideways on support. Lots of USD related data today and tomorrow regarding labour figures, earnings and NFP.
GBPUSD H4 - Long SetupGBPUSD H4
Slight adjustments made to our support and resistance zone here on cable, generally more happy with the trading zones and the stance we have now in line with other ***USD pairs and DXY performance.
Still a measurable trade from support up to resistance, offering a nice 3R. Just need to sit and wait patiently for a test of support.