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Charles Schwab Opportunity Charles Schwab $SCWH Earnings info will follow in comments: Company Market Cap: $97.8 billion Share Price: $53.72 Dividend: $1.00 dps – Dividend per share ($0.25 per quarter) Dividend yield: 1.94% (Annual dps divided by current share price, expressed as a percentage) Why this Trade? o Contrarian trade – news is so negative its hard to not to feel interested o Price 50% down from highs in Feb 2022 o Ascending triangle base re-test on-going o Defined risk level/stop loss makes it an easy set up o Long term diagonal support line provides secondary support o RSI Oversold historic returns inform us of a current opportunity and potential future opportunities. Concerns/Risks: o Schwab is not a Global Systemically Important Bank (G-SIB) o The 200 week SMA has been lost o Rumours of Bankruptcy Company Summary o Charles Schwab is the 17th largest bank in the world with a market cap of $94.4 billion. o Charles Schwab is primarily a wealth management and investment bank which stands out among the investment broker realm for its customer service, $0 trade commissions and large selection of mutual funds. From its origination the company has been all about making investing accessible to everyone. o In line with this vision, Charles Schwab acquired rival firm TD Ameritrade three years ago. TD Ameritrade now provides investing and trading services for 11 million client accounts that total more than $1 trillion in assets, and custodial services for more than 6,000 independent registered investment advisors. Many Americans actively trade on TD or manage their own ROTH IRA’s through the platform, offering them tax benefits/advice and very flexible options for managing their own retirement funds. TD's Roth IRA has zero annual account fees or management fees. The Chart o You can see a potential Long Term Ascending Triangle playing out. o There is an underside diagonal support line. o The beauty of this trade is the following: - A defined stop loss level at $45.39 - A potential 85% upside to – 12% downside (Adjust to suit your tolerance). - A bounce of the top of the ascending triangle is promising. o Any time we have been this oversold on the RSI we have made a significant upside move (green circles on the chart). o The average performance after the green oversold RSI levels is an 82% price increase within a 12 months. o If there is one thing we can take away from this chart it is that if we reach down into RSI oversold levels again this would be a great opportunity. o Regardless I am proposing the trade based off the pattern and recent oversold RSI. Since this recent oversold level we have had an approximate 50% increase in price and a 27% retraction/decline back down to the ascending triangle base. o For those of you who want to lower your risk you can raise the stop loss to a 5% decline ($48.00) or you can wait until over sold levels present themselves again. Important to note that Charles Schwab is not a Global Systemically Important Banks (G-SIB) like Citibank and the likes. This makes this a higher risk trade, especially if we are looking long term over a 52 week period. Regardless, it is a well-established bank providing some of the leading brokerage services to the US public including management of ROTH IRA’s, the cornerstone of most Americans retirement planning. One could argue, its systemically important without being a member of the G-SIB. As always, stay nimble in this market, do not enter a trade without a stop loss at a risk level you can tolerate. Same goes with position size. With this stock 50% down from highs way back in Feb 2022 this maybe an opportunity to claw onto this long term rising trend near it lower diagonal support line. PUKA
NYSE:SCHW
by PukaCharts
LNWY- a fintech company announces stock repurchase LONGLendway had a big start to the week with the after-effects of the repurchase program driving stock price higher. On the 15-minute chart- the abrupt change in momentum from a peak on Friday at the lunch hour into a low in the pre-market on Monday with a V-shaped move down and up again and then a monster move from there and a fade after that. LNWY seems to have moved into a parallel channel with a trend slope/ angle of about 25% the ZL MACD shows a line cross under the histogram which went red to green. I will take a long trade here. the stop loss is under the new trend line at 4.45 while the final target is at the top of the upper resistance trend line at 7.25. An initial target is set about halfway in between them at 6.00 This is a stock with high current volatility given the intention to buy back 400.000 shares in a relatively low float environment. ( www.stocktitan.net ) I anticipate high profile with a relatively low risk. There are no options available to either hedge or amplify risk.
NASDAQ:LDWYLong
by AwesomeAvani
1
BNKU- Triple Leveraged Bank Sector LONGOn the hourly chart, BNKU fell from a head and shoulders in late July , crossed under VWAP lines in a VWAP breakdown and pullback before an inverse head and shoulders type reversal now underway. The zero-lag MACD is confirmatory. I will take a long trade here. Projected stop loss and targets ( TP1-40% TP2 40% and T3 20%) are on the chart. I see this as a very safe trade with an estimated 12% overall profit expected. I am in a WFC trade and looking at ETFs DPST and KRE as well
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
BNKD Is the banking crisis still simmering?Recently, a report posted on the Social Science Research Network found that 186 banks in the United States are at risk of failure or collapse due to rising interest rates and a high proportion of uninsured deposits.Jun 14, 2023 BNKD, the banking bearish and leveraged ETF has dropped in trend down in the past month albeit with some upgoing corrections along the way. GS, JPM and MS are all uptrending as an with DPST high jumping in the past day. On the 2H chart, BNKD is in deep oversold undervalued territory at or below more than two standard deviations below the mean VWAP. However: (1) the mass index indicator popped into the reversal zone and then dropped below the trigger level of 26.5. I see this as a mathematical prediction of a soon impending reversal. (2) the dual time frame RSI shows the lower TF blue line bounced from the lows and the higher TF is flat not showing further weakness. I consider this a subtle bullish divergence. (3) Importantly the red line in the sand here is the POC line of the visible range volume profile. Price is presently supported by that line showing buyers taking a defensive stand at that level. Overall, I will take a long reversal trade here targeting the middle of the first upper deviation band at 12.0 with a stop loss at 8.88. This is a high potential reward of 35% for a small risk taken. The reward on an options trade would potentially be well over 100%. I will zoom into a 15-30 minute time frame to select a pivot low to make a more precise entry.
BLong
by AwesomeAvani
4
DPST Long as the banking sector stabilizesDPST was down in April, consolidated in May and is now parabolically rising and had a price split in recent days.On the one hour chart, price is rising along the quickly after a pivot on June 1. Price is well above the POC line of the intermediate term volume profile showing buyer strength The relative strength on the RSI indicator is flat over 80. I will take a long trade with a stop loss at 5% and a take profit at 20%. I will end the trade early if the RSI drops below 75 as a risk management maneuver. I will be viligent for a correction / retracement because the price is up more than 10% in one day.
AMEX:DPSTLong
by AwesomeAvani
$NQ1! - Busy week ahead! CME_MINI:NQ1! - Busy week ahead! We've got a busy calendar ahead of us and remember it's first day of the month - May a Lot of US Data! 1. ISM 2. JOLTS 3. ADP 4. FOMC 5. NFP Now that's a busy week and I know for some, they will be stepping back and not trading during a hectic week ahead, but I do feel there will be plenty of opportunities. Now, banking sector is at the key spot light ahead of this week mentions of First Republic Bank will be acquired by JPMorgan after rescue efforts fail. It's not first time this year, we've heard a bank go under, and unfortunately that's part of the cycle as rates head higher, a lot of sectors get hurt, look at real estate and this is what I mentioned months prior - I well recommend researching more in depth. Keep in mind FED want a 2% target for inflation...Expectation is for the FOMC to lift rates by 25bps at its May meeting, now the real question is will they pause after this hike or carry on, whilst we got credit tightening... Now technically looking at NQ Highs: 13391 Lows: 12787 At the moment we've got Kangaroo action until a break to either side - If we are to break the highs, I expect next area of interest to be 13660 areas. However, we are to break the lows, I expect 12481 areas. NQ has held relatively well within the conditions we are in, interesting times ahead. Have a great week ahead, Trade Journal
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Trade_Journal
Shadow Banking The shadow banking system is something you're probably not familiar with. Until today! the shadow banking system is made up of mainly investment banks i.e. your market whales or market makers, money market funds i.e. like schwab and vanguard, and hedge funds. these financial entities dont give out loans to you or I, but rather trade amongst themselves. which is what is known as the shadow banking system. one of the main functions of the Shadow Banking system is to provide liquidity aka money (which is mostly made up anyways) to the financial system. for example if a whale wants to move a massive amount of money into a position, or what happened to Zimbabwe a while back and give an entire nation a loan at a ridiculous amount of interest they're able to do so, or take a massive position in a promising opportunity and need capital fast! How does this work? How do you ensure that a hedge fund will pay back on their loan? collateral! Usually in the form of government issued bonds and bills. one can trade an equilivent amount of t-bills plus interest for X-amount of dollars to carry out said transaction. example: Hedge fund A wants to take a position shorting the RMBS market. (strictly coincidental) Hedge Fund A is so confident in their analysis they are willing to take a whales position. they need the capital. well like all good risk management practices they have off set their high beta shares with low risk positions. the lowest risk investment you can have is a US Bond or Treasury Bill. So, Investment bank A says okay I can lend you 10 Billion Dollars at a 4% interest rate per day for 3 days, if you default I keep your Bonds. The swap happens. Now, Hedge Fund A has not only to make their money back on the bond trade, but they have to make at least 4.01% to make the trade profitable and they have 3 days to do it. Another way this can be done is Hedge Fund B says I too am going to short the RMBS market but i am going to offer it to all the investment banks and other hedge funds. So they offer it as an investment opportunity. the offering fund takes a small fee and the winnings or losings are dealt accordingly. while this might sound a a little familiar... well it is! names and places have been changed to protect the innocent. The major critique the financial system has with this Shadow Banking is that its not really regulated. becasue going back to our example with Hedge Fund A If Hedge Fund A Doesnt pay then Investment Bank A can shoot their interest rate from 4% to 40% in one day making the loan almost impossible to pay back causing the Hedge Fund to collapse and all the unsuspecting investors in the Hedge Fund are out of pocket. Or my personal favorite. Lets Say Hedge Fund (HFA) A is going to short the RMBS market with a 10 Billion dollar Position for 3 days and Investment Bank A (IBA) wants to short the CMBS market with a $20 billion position for 5 days. well the trade between HFA and IBA happens 10 billion will float to HFA at a 4% interest rate per day for 3 days. Now, IBA wants to short CMBSs they will approach Life Insurance Group A (LIA) and will offer $20 billion dollars in bonds 10 from their reserve and the 10 billion from HFA. at a 5% per day interest rate for 5 days. Now, you might see the problem. but i will continue. Day 3 is up. HFA made their little profit. IBA doesnt have their bonds (because theyre with LIA). So, IBA will probably give HFA 10 billion of their own bonds which for this post is what happens. HFA is squared away with IBA. Now, in the 5 days that IBA is holding LIAs money the fed decided to raise interest rates 200 base points. the bond market yields sky rocket causing their prices to plummet. but fortunately IBA made 10% on their risk they pay LIA their 5% interest and take a 5% loss on their bonds and come out BE or Break even. As you can see in this overly simplified example how if any one part of these parties failed it could be detrimental for a lot of people. Because peoples pensions are held by hedge funds, countries and other governments have their investments with the Investment Bank peoples money and loans are held with the Life Insurance groups. I believe this shadow banking system is also the Stock Markets (yes the entire stock markets) Stop Loss!
NASDAQ:KRX
by ARegularGuy
HDFC BANKHello and welcome to this analysis From COVID lows in this weekly time frame its appears to be in its terminal 5th wave. After making an expanding diagonal (horn) in a sideways corrective its now set for an attempt for a new high which could see a medium term top formation in it. As per Elliott Wave after 5 up waves a stock goes into a corrective, since this is weekly (3 years of rally) the next correction can be deep in terms of both price and time. We might see a lot of positive news being announced over the next few weeks as it advances into new territory, which is the norm when a stock appears to be concluding its entire wave structure. An ultra bullish count would suggest stock sustaining above 1800 else this path is likely to be correct. Short term trading bullish Medium term exit on rally
NSE:HDFCBANKLong
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
1
Wells Fargo still attractive given the banking sector situation?Wells Fargo & Company (symbol ‘WFC’) share price has been making losses since early March after the fear of a new banking crisis spread throughout the markets after the failures of SVB, Silvergate and Signature. The company’s earnings report for the fiscal quarter is set to be released on Thursday 13th of April. The consensus EPS for the quarter is $1,18 compared to the result for the same quarter last year of $0,88. ‘ The company’s dividend yield is more than 3% making it a solid dividend pick among the industry while its price-to-book ratio of 0.8x suggests it’s trading at a discount therefore making it a clever pick for investors and traders for the longer term.’ said Antreas Themistokleous at Exness. From the technical analysis perspective the price is trying on the move for a correction to the upside after finding support on the 61.8% of the monthly Fibonacci retracement level. The Stochastic oscillator is near the oversold levels therefore further supporting the sentiment of the bullish momentum building up. The 50 and 100 day moving averages are still in touch without any clear crossing at the time of this report. In the event that the bullish movement continues in the near short term then the first point of resistance could possibly be seen around the $41 price area which is just above the 50% of the Fibonacci and also the 20 day moving average. On the other hand if the price continues to the downside then we might find the support area around $35 which is the psychological support of the round number and is also just below the 61.8% of the monthly Fibonacci retracement.
NYSE:WFC
by Exness_Official
BANDHAN BANKHelloo and welcome to this analysis In the weekly chart we can see an ABC from ATH to ATL This was followed by a diagonal which for now I have plotted as a Leading Impulse. A bearish diagonal would mean that the preceding ABC was a W and the diagonal was X. The decline after completion of the diagonal is also in the form of an ABC which could complete its path near 150. Bullish Count would then hold as LD (Wave 1/A) followed by an ABC corrective (Wave 2/B). However, if the stock makes an ATL then the bearish count will become active with current decline ABC structure being Wave Y. In either alternatives keep an eye between ATL & 150 for a possible reversal/bounce as the case maybe.
NSE:BANDHANBNK
by Dinesh_C_Nagpal
3
XAUUSD : Gold SVB Ralley Near to EndOANDA:XAUUSD Gold is trading in extreme bullish pattern Gold is rallied more than 1000 pip's in last 1 week Big reason is downfall of banking sector collapse of SVB and other banks people shifting money in precious metal like gold 1865 is touching of upper trendline of rising wedge Rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern Gold will target 1920 area and in extension 1890 area this month ❤️ Please, support my work with follow ,share and like, thank you! ❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by INVESTRONE
3
Absa showing downside to R135.00 - SMC also appliedPATTERNS: Absa is forming one of the two Either an Reverse Inverse Cup and Handle . Now price is broken below the handle, the chance is that it'll head to R135.60. Or it's forming a head and shoulders where the Right Shoulder is now ready to form (upside) then downside to the target. 21>7 - Bearish Price<200 Bearish RSI<40 - Bearish SMC: We can see a Bearish Fair Value Gap has formed. This is where the 1st and 3rd candle does NOT overlap in price. The market now will want to rebalance and move up into the gap to fill the orders before it comes down. Hence, this is when the Right Shoulder will form. If the price goes back up it'll give a short term BUY SMC to R185.00 If the price continues down then the target will be R135.60. Regardless, the overall trend and bias is down in the medium term.
JSE:ABGShort
by Timonrosso
Maximum Pain in The Future CS Credit SuisseBanks restructure the debt of stressed corporations every day, not out of philanthropy but out of enlightened self-interest. But the problem was that, now that we had accepted the EU–IMF bailout, we were no longer dealing with banks but with politicians who had lied to their parliaments to convince them to relieve the banks of Greece’s debt and take it on themselves. A debt restructuring would require them to go back to their parliaments and confess their earlier sin, something they would never do voluntarily, fearful of the repercussions. Credit Suisse is A Mess, This won't be good R-R for a reversal until late 2023. There are hundreds of significantly better opportunities available
NYSE:CS
by noam_chom
6
KBE Banking Sector ETF Long Swing LongKBE is in the middle of a beatdown with two of the biggest bank failures in history this week. The share price action is reflecting overall distribution. The moving averages ( SMA 100 and SMA 200) are parellel and not crossing. Today, the price action had a little pullback on the drop and perhaps an early sign of reversal or at least the end of the trend into a consolidation. Price action today is a symmetrical triangle at the POC line suggesting some dynamic stability and perhaps a pause awaiting a reversal. My idea is to buy weaknesses and later sell some new strengths ( or at least the weakness fixed). Dip buying ( pull backs on the big picture) has risks associated with the rewards. This would be with shares on the way down ( or a call option ) getting cheaper and cheaper buyers and then start selling once shares are 10% above the cost and calls 25% above their cost once the reversal is trending. ( Another idea is to buy a given dollar amount of shares and then 5% as much dollar amount in put options two strikes above current price with DTE 3/24) as a hedge ( insurance on risk).
AMEX:KBELong
by AwesomeAvani
The Role of BTC in the Challenging Banking/Financial SituationUsing A2P Toolkit has been an excellent experience for trigger longs for many individuals, particularly in light of recent events. Bitcoin has hit a resistance level of 24500, leading to an increase in order flow in a "long" way related with the current situation of Coinbase, and SVB many users have found it beneficial to withdraw their money using Bitcoin as some banks acting as intermediaries are unavailable making it an ideal choice for those looking to complete transactions in a timely manner. Don't forget to try the tool for free for over 2 weeks.
Long
by a2p_
EURUSD bagged and taggedAs mentioned before, so long as DXY has not reach the finishing line, which is the higher time frame upside objective, Risk Off will still be in play. Same narrative, different pair. What happens when DXY finally gets to the upside objective? We sit sideline and study what it wants to do next. There are only 3 possible direction of the market, Bullish / Bearish / Consolidation. Usually, in my opinion, after a prolonged rally / decline, price will tend to consolidate for a bit. After consolidation comes expansion. The question is, expansion to the upside or downside? Now, this short-term bullishness of USD as I previously stated, could be Bear Market Rally for USD. Mr Powell will likely hike rates again in the next Federal Fund Rate announcement. In theory, higher interest rate means bullish for currency. But look at US domestic debt condition. Will that spook investors? Housing and Banking looks about to get crushed. US Credit Card debt climbs nearly US$1 Trillion *source: Insider Intelligent* Household debt hits record US$16.9 Trillion *source: CNN Business* Housing Market Downturn Wipes $2.3 Trillion In Value As Experts Predict Prices Could Still Tumble Another 10% *source: Forbes* US Home-Purchase Applications Drop to 28-Year Low *source: Bloomberg*
by XeroAcademy