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$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rates (October/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 0.25% October/2024 source: Bank of Japan - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) unanimously maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0.25% during its October meeting, keeping it at the highest level since 2008 and matching market estimates. Thursday's decision came amid shifting political lansdscape following Japan's election and ahead of the US presidential election. In a quarterly outlook, the BoJ held its forecast that core inflation to reach 2.5% in FY 2024, with inflation expected to be around 1.9% for both FY 2025 and FY 2026. Regarding the GDP, the central bank retained its 2024 growth forecast at 0.6%. Additionally, it forecasts growth of 1.1% for FY 2025 and 1.0% for FY 2026.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
USDJPY Analysis for 24/10/2024: A Slightly Bearish Bias AheadAs we analyze the USDJPY currency pair on October 24, 2024, current market conditions and fundamental factors suggest a slightly bearish bias. This article delves into the key drivers influencing this outlook, allowing traders to make informed decisions in this dynamic market environment. Current Market Conditions The USDJPY pair has shown a mixed performance recently, with fluctuations influenced by both U.S. economic data and developments in Japan. Traders are closely watching for signals that could dictate the pair’s movement, particularly as we approach critical economic indicators. Key Fundamental Drivers 1. U.S. Economic Data: Recent economic data from the U.S. has been a mixed bag. While there have been positive signs in job growth and consumer spending, inflation remains a concern. The Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates continues to be cautious, signaling that any aggressive rate hikes may not be imminent. This dovish sentiment can weigh on the U.S. dollar, creating a bearish outlook for USDJPY. 2. Japanese Economic Performance: Japan's economy is showing signs of resilience, with recent data indicating stronger-than-expected growth. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has maintained its accommodative monetary policy, but there are discussions about potential adjustments in response to rising inflation. Should the BoJ signal a shift towards tightening, this could support the Japanese yen and contribute to a bearish trend in USDJPY. 3. Geopolitical Factors: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty can lead to safe-haven buying of the yen. Any escalation in conflicts or adverse developments in trade relations may strengthen the yen further, enhancing its appeal against the U.S. dollar. 4. Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators: Sentiment in the forex market is essential. Currently, there is cautious optimism among traders regarding the yen due to the previously mentioned economic performance indicators. Additionally, technical analysis reveals that USDJPY is nearing resistance levels, suggesting a potential reversal. If the pair fails to breach these levels, it may retreat, reinforcing a bearish bias. Conclusion Considering the current fundamental factors and market conditions, the outlook for USDJPY remains slightly bearish for today. Traders should monitor upcoming U.S. economic data releases and any announcements from the Bank of Japan that could further impact this currency pair. Keywords: USDJPY analysis, bearish bias, forex market, U.S. economic data, Bank of Japan, Japanese yen, geopolitical tensions, market sentiment, technical analysis.
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Slightly Bearish Bias on October 22, 2024 !!USDJPY Slightly Bearish Bias on October 22, 2024: Key Drivers and Analysis As of October 22, 2024, the USDJPY currency pair is exhibiting a slightly bearish bias based on the latest market conditions and fundamental factors. In this article, we’ll break down the key drivers that could contribute to this potential weakness in the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY) and provide insights for traders looking to capitalize on these movements. 1. Dovish Federal Reserve Outlook Weakens USD The US Dollar has been losing momentum in recent sessions due to a shift in market sentiment around the future path of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Recent economic data out of the US, including softer-than-expected retail sales and a slowdown in the housing market, have led traders to anticipate a more dovish approach from the Fed. Despite persistent inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve has signaled that it may pause rate hikes, which is reducing demand for the USD. This pause in tightening is making the USDJPY pair more vulnerable to downside risks, especially as traders shift to safer assets like the JPY in the face of rising uncertainty in global markets. 2. Bank of Japan's Potential Policy Shift The Bank of Japan (BoJ) has remained committed to its ultra-loose monetary policy for years, but there are signs that it may be reconsidering its stance. Speculation has grown that the BoJ might tweak its yield curve control (YCC) program or adjust its negative interest rates policy in the near future. Even though no official changes have been announced, the potential for a more hawkish policy shift is providing underlying support to the JPY. Investors are also pricing in the possibility that inflationary pressures in Japan could push the BoJ toward policy normalization, which would make the JPY more attractive relative to the USD. 3. Safe-Haven Demand for JPY Amid Global Uncertainty The Japanese Yen is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency, meaning that it tends to gain strength during periods of global uncertainty. Current geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, and concerns over global economic slowdown are driving risk aversion in the markets. This sentiment is boosting demand for safe-haven assets, including the JPY, while pressuring the USDJPY pair lower. Furthermore, ongoing concerns about China's economic recovery and lingering trade tensions between the US and other major economies are also contributing to increased risk-off sentiment, which favors the Yen over the Dollar. 4. Diverging Economic Data Between the US and Japan While the US economy has been showing signs of weakness, with disappointing retail sales and housing market reports, Japan’s latest GDP data surprised to the upside. The Japanese economy grew faster than expected in the last quarter, reinforcing the view that the country is starting to recover from its prolonged period of stagnation. This stronger economic outlook for Japan is providing additional tailwinds for the Yen. In contrast, US data continues to reflect a potential slowdown, leading traders to rethink their bullish stance on the USD. The combination of weaker economic performance in the US and stronger-than-expected growth in Japan is tilting the balance toward a bearish USDJPY outlook. 5. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment From a technical perspective, the USDJPY pair has recently tested key resistance levels around 150.00 but failed to break higher, suggesting that a reversal may be underway. The pair is now trading closer to 148.50, with the potential to move lower if further downside pressure builds. Traders are watching for a break below the 148.00 support level, which could signal additional bearish momentum. Market sentiment, as indicated by the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, shows a slight increase in speculative short positions on the USDJPY pair, reflecting the broader expectation of near-term weakness in the USD. 6. Yen Intervention Concerns Another factor adding to the bearish bias for USDJPY is the potential for Japanese government intervention. In the past, Japan’s Ministry of Finance has intervened in the currency markets to support the Yen when it experiences excessive weakness. With USDJPY approaching levels that could trigger intervention, traders are cautious about pushing the pair higher, which is contributing to the pair’s bearish momentum. The Japanese authorities have issued warnings in recent weeks about excessive volatility in the Yen, and this potential intervention risk is helping to keep USDJPY in check. Conclusion: USDJPY Outlook for October 22, 2024 In conclusion, the USDJPY pair is expected to maintain a slightly bearish bias today due to several key factors, including the dovish Federal Reserve outlook, potential Bank of Japan policy shifts, and rising safe-haven demand for the Yen. The divergence in economic data between the US and Japan, coupled with technical indicators signaling downside potential, further strengthens the case for a weaker USDJPY pair in today’s trading session. Traders should keep a close eye on upcoming economic reports from both the US and Japan, as well as any potential intervention from Japanese authorities, which could impact the pair’s trajectory. For those trading forex, today’s market environment may present opportunities to capitalize on short positions in USDJPY. 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Short
by PERFECT_MFG
USDJPY Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias for Next WeeUSDJPY Analysis: Anticipating a Slight Bearish Bias for Next Week Date: 28/09/2024 As we look ahead to the coming week for the USDJPY currency pair, a slight bearish bias seems likely based on the latest fundamental factors and market conditions. Several key drivers contribute to this outlook, and in this article, we'll explore the factors that may weigh on the USDJPY pair, creating potential opportunities for traders. 1. Dovish Signals from the Federal Reserve One of the primary drivers for USDJPY's potential bearish bias next week is the recent dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's tone. While the Fed has maintained a firm stance on keeping interest rates elevated to curb inflation, recent economic data in the U.S. suggest that inflationary pressures may be easing. If the Fed signals a slower pace of tightening or hints at rate cuts in the future, this could weaken the U.S. dollar, pushing the USDJPY lower. The key phrase here is "inflation slowdown," as this could be the primary focus in upcoming economic releases. Traders should keep a close eye on any updates from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and other policymakers, as dovish commentary could lead to further USD weakness. 2. Japan's Central Bank Policy On the other side of the coin, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) continues its ultra-loose monetary policy. While the BoJ has resisted raising interest rates, there have been increasing discussions around tweaking its yield curve control (YCC) program. If the BoJ surprises markets by adjusting its policy, this could provide a boost to the Japanese yen, exerting downward pressure on USDJPY. The BoJ's governor, Kazuo Ueda, has emphasized that they will remain accommodative, but with inflation in Japan beginning to rise, markets may start to price in a more hawkish BoJ in the near future. 3. U.S. Economic Data and Dollar Sentiment U.S. data releases, including the upcoming non-farm payrolls (NFP) report and the core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) index, will be crucial in shaping the USDJPY trend next week. A weak NFP or lower-than-expected PCE inflation figures could weigh on the U.S. dollar, contributing to a bearish outlook for USDJPY. Additionally, geopolitical tensions or unexpected developments in global markets could drive safe-haven demand for the yen, pushing USDJPY lower. With risk-off sentiment growing due to uncertainties in global markets, the yen may see inflows as investors seek safety. 4. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, USDJPY has been hovering near key resistance levels, and the pair’s inability to break higher could signal a pullback. If USDJPY fails to hold above the 149.00 level, it could retrace toward the 147.50 and 146.00 support areas. Short-term momentum indicators, such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index), are showing signs of overbought conditions, further supporting the potential for a corrective move lower. Conclusion In summary, the USDJPY currency pair could experience a slightly bearish bias next week, driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, potential shifts in Japan’s monetary policy, and weaker U.S. economic data. Traders should remain vigilant about key data releases, Fed speeches, and any surprises from the Bank of Japan. As always, proper risk management is crucial when navigating currency markets. Stay tuned for more updates on USDJPY and other forex pairs. As we enter a potentially volatile week, it's essential to monitor these key drivers and make informed trading decisions. Keywords: USDJPY analysis, Federal Reserve policy, Bank of Japan, USDJPY bearish bias, forex trading, USDJPY technical analysis, USDJPY forecast, U.S. economic data, dovish Fed signals, forex trading signals, tradingview analysis
Short
by PERFECT_MFG
JPN225 Correction Persists Ahead of the BoJThe Japanese index managed to swiftly rebound from the plunge caused by the central bank’s second rate hike and hawkish messaging at the end of July, as the market rout created some apprehension around the policy shift. Furthermore, the monetary setting remains accommodative and interests rates are still near-zero, while the stock market’s appeal goes beyond monetary policy and weak Yen. JPN225 comes from a strong week, fueled largely by the upbeat messaging from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang that spilled over to Japanese chip makers. Advantest and Tokyo Electron, two of Nikkei’s largest constituents, jumped more than 7%. As a result the index tries to regain the EMA200 that would allow it to exit its correction and challenge the August highs (39,204). However, the index is cautious this week, as tech optimism wanes and markets await the BoJ’s decision, preceded by inflation update. Policymakers are unlikely to raise rates again, but communication around the path ahead will be crucial. Official have pointed to further tightening ahead and another hike this year is reasonable, as inflation is well above 2%, wages have increased and Q2 GDP posted strong growth. Furthermore, the monetary policy shift and the Yen’s rebound have led to outflows from foreigners over the past seven months. JPN225 stays in correction and below the EMA200 the risk of bear market persists, although sustained below that threshold has a higher degree of difficulty. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”) (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225
by FXCM
GBPJPY | Trade ideaOn Tuesday, the yen gained support as Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda maintained a hawkish stance, indicating the central bank might raise rates further if the economy meets expectations. Ueda’s comments were part of a document presented to a government panel led by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, where he detailed the BOJ’s July policy decision. His remarks emphasized that despite global market volatility, partly triggered by the BOJ's July rate hike, Ueda remains committed to raising borrowing costs if the bank’s projections are realized.
Long
by DCFX-TA
Nikkei Hits Bear Market after BoJ HikeAfter a cautious approach away from its ultra-easy monetary setting, the Bank of Japan bolstered its normalization efforts last week. Policymakers raised rates to around 0.25% after the March watershed exit from sub-zero levels, pointed to more moves ahead and also announced sizable reduction in bond purchases. This action signaled tightening resolve and also accelerated the Yen rebound, threatening to unravel the two key pillars of the stock markets’ rally to record highs. Along with broader recession fears after the US jobs report, JPN225 slumps into a bear market as it loses more than 20% for July’s all-time high and could be in for further losses. On the other hand, the BoJ is still in accommodative territory and warned that could increase its bond buying if needed, while the broader market rout could push it back into a more conservative approach. Furthermore the rate differential is still huge and the carry trade may persist. From a technical standpoint the RSI points to the most oversold conditions in years and that could help JPN225 rebound out of bear territory and towards a cluster of hurdles that starts with the 200Days EMA, but significant sentiment improvement needed. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225
by FXCM
Nikkei 225 Suffers Worst Decline Since 1987 Amid U.S. Economic CThe Nikkei 225 index in Japan plunged by 12.4%, marking its worst day since the 1987 "Black Monday" crash. The index closed at 31,458.42, shedding 4,451.28 points. The sell-off was triggered by concerns about the U.S. economy and followed a 5.8% drop on Friday. Major companies like Toyota, Honda, and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group saw significant declines. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and a stronger yen have further pressured the market. Investors now focus on upcoming trade data from China and Taiwan, and central bank decisions from Australia and India.
INDEX:NKYShort
by signalmastermind
Major Global Events unfolding. Be Alert!Major Global Event 1): Conflict in the Middle East is heating up with possibility of direct conflict between Iran and Israel increasing by every hour. Major Global Event 2): Japan has increased the interest rate by 0.25%. This is just the second hike in 17 years. Now US FED increases or decreases rates to control and Monitor inflation this happens and it has global consequences. Similarly Bank of Japan's move is huge. The money that Japanese investors were investing (And Japan has big investors) was almost at 0 to negligible interest rate. Now there is a possibility that they sell big across the globe. Consequences on Indian Market: India is in much better position to tackle these events economically but still we can not be immune to such events of mass scale. There is a very big chance of temporary effect on Indian indices. Over the long run these uncertainties will have less effect. In the medium to long run India is a bull market and will remain so. Panic selling should be avoided but keep your stop losses in place to protect the capital. Keep Trailing stop losses in place to guard your profits. Cash and money in hand is also a good position sometimes in the market. Nifty Supports Remain at: 24407, 23960 is the 50 Days EMA or mother line, 23283 and 22224 is the 200 days EMA or Father line. Below this line Bears can absolutely over power Bulls. Final Support For Nifty will be at 21879. Nifty Resistances remain at: 24904, 25037 and recent high of 25078. This message is not to instill fear or knee jerk reaction but it aims to make you conscious about the Macro events that can affect your portfolio. Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment
JPN225 Drops to Correction Levels Ahead of the BOJThe Japanese benchmark index is having another banner year, which culminated to July’s record peak. The central bank’s accommodative stance despite the policy pivot and the Yen’s protracted slump, were the key drivers. But even if slowly, the Bank of Japan is moving towards a less loose setting, after exiting negative rates regime in a historic decision in March. Policymakers have pointed to less bond buying ahead and there are mounting expectations that policymakers will hike again next week. These prospects help the ailing Yen rebound (along with intervention speculation) and send the JPN225 to correction territory, with a more than 10% slide for the all-time highs. This threatens the pivotal 200Days EMA (blue line) and a breach would open the door to bigger losses towards and beyond 35,771. However, there is ambivalence around the timing of the next rate increase, while officials have disappointed hawkish expectation in the past and have wrong-footed markets before. Furthermore, the Yen’s demise has made Japanese equities more appealing to foreign investors and ultra-loose monetary policies may have been key drivers of the rally in Japanese equities, but they are not the only culprits. Structural reforms, favorable policies by the government and strong corporate earnings are among the supportive factors. Furthermore the drop is stretched from a technical perspective, as the RSI reached the most oversold in years. This can help JPN225 stage a comeback as it already defends the 200Days EMA. It may get the opportunity to reclaim the EMA200 (black line) at around the 40K mark. Successful effort would reinstate the bullish bias, but strong catalyst would be needed. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 62% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 59% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225
by FXCM
USDJPY Pulls Back as US Labor Market CoolsAfter years of ultra-loose monetary setting that has been detrimental for the Yen, the Bank of Japan has started the normalization process, but does so slowly and remains accommodative. Its US counterpart meanwhile looks to pivot from its aggressive tightening, but persistent inflation creates apprehension. As a result, USD/JPY is having another banner year with 14% gains in the first half. The rally continues in the third quarter, as the pair reached 38-year highs last week, bringing 165.00 in the spotlight. On the other hand, the rally raises risk for new FX intervention by Japanese authorities, which have already spent nearly ¥10 trillion this year to support the ailing Yen. The weak currency increases pressure on the central bank to tighten its policy, supported by elevated inflation and strong wages. Policymakers have signaled they will reduce the amount of bond buying and at least one more hike is reasonable this year, following the historic exit from the negative rates regime in March. Fed officials are cautious around removing monetary restraint, due to stubborn inflation, strong economy and tight labor market. However, the disinflation process has resumed according to recent data, while Friday’s report showed that employment conditions are easing, boosting market bets for two rate cuts this year. The shift in monetary policy dynamics is weighing on the pair after the 38-year peak and creates scope for a deeper pullback that would test the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it would pause the bullish momentum, but strong catalyst would be needed for that and the downside appears well-protected. There are key events coming up this week that can shape the trajectory of the pair, namely Fed Chair Powell’s two-day Congress testimony and the US CPI inflation update. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
by FXCM
Nikkei Soars Looking Past Monetary NormalizationUltra-loose BoJ policy and the Yen’s demise have been key drivers of the JPN225 mammoth rally. The central bank exited its negative rates regime though and is shifting towards less easy policies, with at least one more hike reasonable within the year. This threatens to cut off a key source of strength for equities and JPN22 registered a brief pullback from the March record peak. But monetary normalization has been slow so far and the stock market’s strength is based on more factors than just favorable monetary stance and weak currency. Strong earnings, structural reforms and investment-friendly government policies are among them. As a result, JPN225 has resumed its advance and runs its third straight profitable month, trying to set new all-time highs. On the other hand, the RSI reached overbought levels and a pullback here would be reasonable. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider . You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225Long
by FXCM
Is USD/JPY Trade of Decade? US Dollar Nears 34-Year High Again.If you’re a ‘90s baby, the yen is the weakest you’ve ever seen it. Putting it back with the cool guys in forex town isn’t going to be easy. In this Idea, we discover why. Yen Languishes in 34-Year Lows The Japanese yen is trading at a 34-year low against the stronger US dollar. This means that the volatile USD/JPY pair is flying high. Very high. To many, this is the opportunity of a lifetime — pop a short, load up on the leverage and go for the jugular (to use Soros slang ). Only that it’s not as easy as it looks. So not-easy that there’s even a term for that. It’s called “widow maker trade” and it describes those unfortunate souls who dare to bet against the Bank of Japan in hopes of anticipating the right direction. It’s so difficult to predict the path of Japan’s interest rates that many have seen their fortunes wiped out in trying to do so. So why’s the yen so badly hurt? Until recently, Japan’s central bank was the only one in the world to flaunt negative interest rates. It was holding on to an easy-money regime to stimulate economic growth — low to negative rates encourage businesses and consumers to borrow cheap money and spend it on whatever they want. Biggest Loser on Forex Board But this loose money policy has a downside — it makes the local currency highly unattractive. The Japanese yen is the biggest loser among the major currencies on the forex board so far in 2024. It’s down more than 13% against the dollar this year. Against that backdrop, in March, the Bank of Japan abandoned its negative rate regime and hiked interest rates for the first time since 2007. The shift provided little relief to the yen. The USD/JPY this week blasted beyond ¥159 and extended its winning streak to seven days in a row. But bulls’ efforts to carry the exchange rate above the ¥160 milestone might meet an archnemesis. Japanese officials have been monitoring the speculative moves around the yen and have said many times they’re ready to intervene by buying boatloads of it. Traders, however, have already seen this play out. And they've seen the aftermath, too. A Failed InterYention In late April, the Japanese yen tumbled beyond the key ¥160 level to the dollar, hitting ¥160.20 — a low last seen in 1990. Japan then decided to lean against the skyrocketing dollar and sank as much as $60 billion going long the yen and shorting the dollar. Briefly, the yen rose about 5% before bargain-hungry traders were back for more. Moral of the story? The downturn of the yen is predictable and until the Bank of Japan introduces a more aggressive policy to buck the trend, it may remain vulnerable to attacks. More of the Same? Meanwhile, bullish traders are excited to try their hand at shooting the dollar-yen pair to a fresh 34-year high. It must be noted, however, that the exchange rate is overstretched and overbought. This skews the risk-reward ratio and makes the upside look fairly limited, at least in the short term. Or does it? Zoom out, and you’ll see the yen was trading at ¥300 to the dollar back in the ‘70s. And that’s not something Japan wants to see now. A cheap yen is generally good for exports but it makes imports a lot more expensive. And that’s where the Asian economy is getting its technology, energy, cars, and many foods from. Japanese officials, namely the Ministry of Finance, remain tight-lipped about any potential intervention. What’s more, the Bank of Japan joins the silence with no forward-looking guidance on future interest rate hikes. And all this means one thing — yen volatility is bound to continue as traders engage in some extra spicy speculation fundamental price discovery. Long or Short? If you’re in the trade, which side are you on? Are you long the dollar-yen or short it? Let us know in the comments below!
Editors' picks
by TradingView
11
Nikkei Remains in Consolidation after Mixed Inflation DataJPN225 has backed off its March record peak, as the central bank made a historic exit from negative rates, shifting away from the ultra-loose stance that has devalued the Yen and has boosted equities. The BoJ is set to go further down that road and start scaling back its bond buying, while at least one more rate cut this year looks reasonable as officials expect underlying inflation to increase gradually. These prospects could weigh further on the index and sent it back towards this year’s low (36,732), but the downside appear unfriendly with the 200Days EMA following (blue line). Despite the pullback, JPN225 shows resiliency, as the Bank of Japan maintains an accommodative stance and the lack of clarity around its intentions to reduce the asset purchases cast doubts over the policy normalization process. Today’s mixed inflation data added to the uncertainty, as core CPI rose but less than expected and core-core dropped for ninth straight month. Furthermore, the stock market’s strength goes beyond easy monetary policy. Structural reforms, strong corporate earnings and market friendly government trying to direct saving into investments provide long-term tailwinds. As such, JPNN225 can resume its advance and push for new all-time highs (41,227). The recent consolidation is likely to persist though, amidst competing drivers. Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com): CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com): Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com): Losses can exceed deposits. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website: Stratos Markets Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Trading Pty. Limited clients please see: www.fxcm.com Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
FX:JPN225
by FXCM
$JPINTR - Interest Rates MoMECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected. The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield. The board said that it will patiently continue with monetary easing amid extremely high uncertainties at home and abroad. It also mentioned that policymakers will respond to development in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. By doing so, the BoJ aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage increases. The committee reiterated that it will not hesitate to take extra easing measures if needed. source: Bank of Japan
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
Has USDJPY given up on 150? Ahead of the BoJ rate decision tomorrow, USDJPY sold off heavily today on a somewhat unprovoked move...did someone get wind of the decision early? Either way it has created a bunch of space on the chart and may make it difficult to find level early tomorrow morning. The BoJ are expected to hold at -0.10% so it may be the press conference that provides the fireworks. This is all likely to happen before London gets underway so be sure to revisit the levels pre-market to set up for any continuation move as we open.
by RuckSack
BluetonaFX - USDJPY Pre-NFP Market ReportHi Traders! USDJPY finally reached the psychological 150.000 level this week and is so close to reaching its apex level at 151.946. However, there may be US dollar weakness on the horizon as the US finally ended its streak of consistent positive economic data releases with a worse-than-expected ADP non-farm employment change, which has got traders very nervous about today's NFP announcement. The market has been in an ascending price channel for the past seven months and has reached a very key level at the 150 level. If the US non-farm is worse than expected, we can expect a big pullback towards the 145 area. This is also due to expected JPY strength because of rumours that the Bank of Japan is intervening in the markets to try and prevent further JPY weakness. If the US non-farm is stronger than expected, we can expect a push back above the strong resistance at 150 and move towards the apex level at 151.946, which will be a record-breaking level. The benchmark NFP number to look out for is 171K; this is the expected number. We will be back after the announcement to give a post-NFP market update. Please make sure to click on the like/boost button 🚀 as your support greatly helps. Trade safely and responsibly. BluetonaFX
by BluetonaFX
GBPJPY Bears in Sight as Japan Mulls Currency Intervention Bearish GBPJPY as Japan's key economic ministers warn of currency intervention Japan's key economic ministers have warned of currency market intervention, keeping investors wary of a further sell-off in the yen and weighing on the GBPJPY exchange rate. The yen has weakened sharply against the dollar in recent months, hitting its weakest level in nearly a year on Monday. This has been driven by a number of factors, including the Bank of Japan's commitment to ultra-low interest rates, while the US Federal Reserve has been raising rates aggressively. The recent warning from Japanese ministers has raised the prospect of further intervention to weaken the yen. This would be bad news for the GBPJPY exchange rate, as it would make Japanese exports more competitive and make British imports more expensive. As of October 10, 2023, GBPJPY is trading at 182. If Japanese authorities do intervene to weaken the yen, this could push GBPJPY down towards 175 or even lower. Traders should be cautious of long positions in GBPJPY in the near term, as the risk of intervention is high.
Short
by masterclass618
USD/JPY -On its way to a Safe Short- We've seen USD/JPY uptrending for what will be the fifth (5) consecutive Weekly Green Candelstick prints. Some cool of may occurr in terms of price action, further due for correction ? Lots of Higher Highs levels as Support from below Looking from the left, a Weekly Supply Zone can be spotted ; (you can refer it as a *W OB). As well coinciding with the fact of approaching Resistance Trendline of Ascending Channel Pattern (a.k.a Bearish Flag). Short-Bearish case Opportunities are on its way for USD/JPY. Bullish case would be the breakout of pattern through above average volume and the Supply Zone being broken. This would invalidate the Short Opportunities idea for $USD/JPY Until the next one; TRADE SAFE *** NOTE that this is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor before even considering partaking on any Trading Acitivity based solely on this Idea.
Short
by Mr_J__fx
Bank of Japan sitting on the fence on easy policy exitCentral banks packed quite a punch last week. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that raised policy rates by 25Bps, as was widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on July 28 unexpectedly decided to tweak the Yield Curve Control (YCC) band. The BOJ begins its withdrawal from YCC It will now allow some deviation above the long-term rate cap of 0.5% and has raised the rate for its 10yr Japanese Government Bond (JGB) fixed-rate purchase operations to 1%. They are effectively doubling their YCC band as it has outlived its purpose over the last seven years. This is despite Governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the BOJs patience a week prior to the meeting leading to 82% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting no change. There is a strong likelihood the decision was made because the market was least expecting it, similar to the last YCC policy tweak made in December 2022. As it helps avoid the inevitable speculation about the impact of the change on the JGB curve thereby forcing the BOJ to step up its interventions. It’s hard to determine whether the new YCC with greater flexibility and nimble responses in its purchase schedule will achieve the BOJs goal of sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% inflation target. Longer dated JGB yields are likely to stay under upward pressure until clearer signs emerge that Japanese inflation and wage pressure are easing again. Core inflation at highest level since 1982 The deflationary headwinds confronting Japan have been around for decades. Signs of change have been seen in firms’ wage- and price-setting behaviour, and inflation expectations have shown some upward movements again (as seen in the chart above). Spring in Japan is the season for shunto, the annual wage negotiations between company management and unions. This year some firms have already announced significant wage hikes in response to a tightening labour market and rising inflation. May wages rose by 2.9%1. However, a large part of the increase was tied to bonuses. Real wages fell by less but continued to decline by 0.9%2. Japanese headline inflation stayed at 3.2% year on year in July for three consecutive months3. However, core inflation excluding fresh food and energy, reaccelerated to 4.2%, marking the highest level since April 1982. Looking ahead, headline inflation will likely slow owing to falling global commodity prices and base effects but core inflation will likely remain higher owing to structural change in the labour market. BOJ struck a dovish tone with below target inflation forecasts The BOJ’s inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ahead are expected to slow further. The BoJ lowered its (median) forecast for FY2024 to +1.9%4 and left its FY2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%3, in effect justifying ongoing easing from the Bank of Japan. BoJ Governor Ueda mentioned at the press conference that there is still some distance to foresee 2% price stability target in a stable and sustainable manner given our inflation outlook for FY2024 and FY2025. This echoes a dovish narrative on the new YCC regime and a continued communication that the BOJ intends to in effect ease policy by still increasing the monetary base via fixed operations. More volatility beckons for risk assets The initial response to the BOJs surprise decision was a sharp rise in Japanese bond yields. Japan’s benchmark bond yields surged, extending gains above the central bank’s previous 0.5% cap. The yen whipsawed, falling more than 1% before reversing course and rallying to trade about the same amount higher. On Monday 31st July, the BOJ sprung another surprise announcement (2 days post the BOJ meeting) of an unscheduled bond-purchase operation to stem the rise in yields5. The BOJ intends to purchase ¥300Bn of five-to-10-year notes at market yields. This serves as an important reminder that the flexibility is intertwined with opaqueness, as the BOJ can intervene at any time (between 0.5% to 1%) which will continue to stoke volatility across risk assets. The BOJ has positioned the YCC as enhancing sustainability of its current accommodative policy. With Japan’s monetary environment likely to be kept relatively loose, the yen is likely to trade in a volatile range for the remainder of 2023. Sources 1 Bloomberg as of 31 May 2023 2 Bloomberg 31 May 2023 3 Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication as of 20 July 2023 4 Bank of Japan as of 28 July 2023 5 Bloomberg as of 31 July 2023 This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
FRED:NIKKEI225
by aneekaguptaWTE
Why is the Bank of Japan nervous? ...To properly represent (and trade!) the Yen related pairs, it is strongly recommended to create a Yen-based currency basket. (I did attempt to import data into TV from such a basket - weighted by the acceleration differential between the USD, EUR, GBP, AUD, CAD, CHF and a basket of Central European currencies versus the Yen but for some reason I couldn't make that work. I.e., the main chart here represents the next best thing which is an unweighted USD|EUR|GBP|AUD|CAD / YEN basket, to convey the same idea.) The central problem the Bank of Japan is facing at this moment, continued acceleration of rate (and thus, price) differentials relative to the other G-20 currencies. (I.e., The Yen price levels, alone, would not cause the same concerns.) On the top of it, China's PBC decided to dump massive amounts of Yen (and Euro) reserves, still actively taking place as of last Friday. The now solid uptrend in Japanese economic indicators also continue to add to the upward pressures, leaving the BoJ with ever less wiggle-room. FX Yen options implied volatility - 8.34%-8.93% - is running under historical levels, (i.e. they are considered "cheap") despite the increased Call buying, as of late. Ultimately, what the BoJ will be forced to do here, and most importantly When(?) and to what extent, is still open to debate but two aspects of this issue became rather obvious; 1) At this point markets, in general, seem to maintain a complacent stance (see options pricing) regarding the significance and potential magnitude of a BoJ move; 2) This is a 30-year, $3+ Trillion Dollar short position which will have to be unwound (covered) in the event of a BoJ interest rate hike and as such, liquidity will be a major issue! To illustrate the last point - above -, this was the recent EURJPY action following a rumor that the BoJ "may do something";
by Nemo_Confidat
2
GBPJPY Technical Analysis 28.03.2023 1h chart– Previous Daily candle closed Bullish at 161.540 forming new Daily Support at 159.800 as price forms fakeout on the Daily timeframe closing back within the consolidation zone. – Buys on close above 161.770 targeting 30min previous Support formed on 22nd March 2023 at 162.240, Leaving Runners to the next 30min previous Support formed on 22 March 2023 at 162.600. – Sells on close below 161.310 targeting 30min Support at 161.030, Leaving Runners to the 1h previous Resistance formed at 160.740. – Bank Of Japan Governor Kuroda due speak at the FIN/SUM 2023 in Tokyo Pre London open, During the London session we have Bank Of England Governor Bailey due to testify, along with Deputy Governor David Ramsden, about the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank before the Treasury Select Committee, in London.
by SalimFX20
USD/JPY dips as Tokyo Core CPI risesThe Japanese yen is in positive territory on Friday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 129.76, down 0.33%. Inflation indicators in Japan continue to head northwards. Tokyo Core CPI rose to 4.3% y/y in January, up from 3.9% in December and ahead of the consensus of 4.2%. This is the highest level in 42 years, but what is more worrying for the Bank of Japan is that the indicator has exceeded the central bank's target of 2% for the eighth straight month. The increase was broad-based, with food and fuel prices the main contributors to the increase. The Tokyo Core CPI reading follows other inflation indicators which have hit decades-high levels, adding pressure on the BoJ to exit its stimulus programme. The BoJ insists that inflation will peak at 3% in March. but this view seems over-optimistic, given the trend we're seeing from inflation data. BOJ Governor Kuroda has said he will maintain the Bank's ultra-loose policy until wages increase, which would indicate that inflation is driven by domestic demand rather than cost-push factors. Kuroda winds up his term in April, and the new Governor could decide to tighten policy, which would boost the yen. US GDP climbed 2.9% y/y in Q4, down from 3.2% in Q3 but still a respectable clip. Will the US be able to avoid a recession? The answer isn't clear, as the economic data shows a mixed picture. The employment market remains robust and overall growth has been positive. Manufacturing and Services PMIs continue to show that these sectors are contracting and housing has been especially weak, as lowered Q4 GDP by about 1.3%. Much will depend on the strength of consumer spending, which accounts for some 68% of GDP. Consumer spending rose 2.1% in Q4, down slightly from 2.3% in the third quarter. However, the December release is worrying, as consumer spending declined by 1.1%. If this trend continues, it seems likely that the US economy will tip into a recession. There is resistance at 130.89 and 131.69 129.46 and 128.40 are providing support
by OANDA