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Institutional Analysis: Daily on crucial zoneDaily timeframe has already broken the area of ​​liquidity below the low of April and has shown a slight upward mood. We must pay attention to the two lows of Autumn because if the market does not intend to return to these areas, it will certainly break this zone to collect massive liquidity. The trade at this point is quite risky with not so good risk / reward. The best idea is to let the price get as close as possible to the aforementioned lows so that our stop loss can be placed in such a way that a break does not take us out with the mass of retailers who have placed pending orders just from below. After the entry we should pay special attention to the red dangerous zone in which is the institutional candlestick that gathered the positions from above. At this point there are open buy positions which the banks will try to close by creating a rather small retracement. Maybe a very small partial could be justified. The trade should reach the target relatively easily in the first half of September. Related Ideas Link has the same analysis from monthly perspective.
Long
by antorower
Institutional Analysis: Price on crucial support zonePrice approaching crucial zone. A confirmed manipulation has already formed at the top of the range, that means that the price have to return to that level to let banks get rid of losing positions. The fact that August breaks the previous lows means that a potential manipulation lurks. This is an extra reason to believe that the price will raise soon. However, the lows of September and November can offer plenty of liquidity to banks. Trade now is risky, but if the price goes down we will be able to place our stop loss below these lows to stay safe even from an eventual break - and take profit below the level that bank will start selling their open positions. Keep in mind that reversal is always risky, but the impressive reward sometimes justifies the pluck. You can drop timeframe to find the correct moment to jump into the reversal. Risk/Reward ratios is around 1:7. Risk recommended to be no more than 0.5% on reversals.
Long
by antorower
$XLF Financials failing at resistanceThe XLF ETF which tracks the financial sector of the U.S market has been battling to break resistance at $37 and the 50 day moving average. With the push lower in yields, fundamentally this is generally quite negative for banks and financial firms as this substantially decreases their profit margins. We could potentially retest the bottom of the range at $35.00 and if that breaks then $33 could be in site which is around the 200 day moving average.
AMEX:XLFShort
by MarcoOlevano
ES 4450 Late Chasers will be lit up: 4250 - 4150As Volumes begin to dry up and Seasonality begins to take hold as Euphoria morphs quietly into "Fear" the ES will begin a large retracement. Globex has been another Low Volume affair with the Retail Chasers continuing to BTD with diminished conviction. The chart remains in a Bull Trend, with extreme divergences. We are preparing for a very nasty 10% correction, followed by another 9% @ minimum. Ideally, and it is far too early to know - 3600/3800 Range should reduce the appetite for the ES as Financials continue to fall apart. Cohesion in Banking has been extraordinary. I have been an Chemical/Chase/JPM Customer since 1991. This morning I received a notification from CHASE in which they informed me I had not used my CHASE Credit Card in over 9 months - Citing a lack of activity against a Large Revolving Line of Credit. American Express, Member since 1991 - has dropped my credit score internally from 835 to 717. The reason - an undisclosed Line of Credit, which I do not have. My LOCs have not been reduced, although they appear to be creating causation. Interesting times indeed for Money Center Banks.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by HK_L61
1
BNKS ETF BEARISH topping patternOverall technical elements look toppy on US BNKS. A head and shoulder pattern has emerged and RSI remains sluggish below 50%. However, we are seeing a mid-term wedge/range develop - with some minor RSI divergences emerging. Short-term bounce risk. Suggest to sell any rebounds into the zones closer to highlighted resistances in purple. MACRO => Given the flattening in the US yield curve - it makes fundamental sense for US banks to struggle as their margins will get squeezed.
LSE:BNKSShort
by Foxy_Trader967
JPMorgan to $80 by October 2022NYSE:JPM Jamie Dimon and his army of minion traders at $JPM are printing the classic bear pattern of a H&S top (green). Measuring that formation, that should put us at a local bottom sometime in October. From there I would expect the Santa Rally to be our retest of the neckline, before creating the base of the much larger H&S pattern in yellow. Measuring that pattern out gives me my price target of $80 when it is all said and done by October 2022. And yes that is a price gap at $110 (purple box) that I expect to be filled in these moves. - Penny
NYSE:JPMShort
by PennyBagsCapital
FXCM USBANKS Basket Hourly Rally in Longer-Term WeaknessFXCM's USBANKS basket is in the bearish area on the daily chart on the left. The basket is an equal weighting (20% each) of JPM, BAC, WFC and C. A bearish cross of the EMAs and stochastic potentially align short-term traders with the daily. If signals occur, movement of stochastic to 20 level and maintenance of that level increase the chances of a successful trade. Trend following indicators may be useful in this case as a potential exit tool. Stop above hourly high in conjunction with risk management techniques.
FX:USBANKSShort
by FXCM
2
Capital Liabilities @ Money Center Banks - JPM, CITI, WELLS, BOADeposit gains were concentrated @ JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Liabilities expanded dramatically faster than smaller, Regional Banks throughout 2021. The government's Fiscal Policies unleashed Trillions of dollars to support small businesses and individuals via stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. There were mass bailouts of Industry, enormous amounts of money was given to Corporations. As you can see from the Chart above - growth was extraordinary as hoarding among individuals, and corporations reached a peak until very recently. JPM, CITI, WELLS, BOA made it clear additional deposits (Liabilities) were NOT welcome. Their answer - go pound sand in Money Markets. Effectively there is no sweep as Short Term T-Bills are unavailable. Why herd Cash into a Corner? No one puts baby DX in a corner. Apparently they do and did. It's not for good either. At a time when Banks are attempting to bolster their balance sheets, call in loans on consumer lines of credit, reduce mortgage lending, auto lending and revolving debt lines... the pushback clearly demonstrates the lack of Tier 1 collateral. Apparently that is not Cash. Let's see if they can get a big chase going in Equities and entice some willing Cash into the Big Casino. Given the Value proposition - TINA. There is always an alternative, we simply crossed the Rubicon long ago with respect to common sense and a willingness to enforce the "No".
FRED:WTREGENShort
by HK_L61
M2 Money StockWe are witnessing a Crisis on par with LTCM, similar to the Russian Bond collapse. The Reverse Repo pool can be used in Net Effect to raise Rates. "Net" as it has another insidious component to it - Money Markets will again come under duress as the DX moves below Par at 100 Basis. Money Market Funds are seeing large inflows as Primary Institutions are telling Corporate Depositors to stop placing Liabilities on their Balance Sheets (Deposits are a Liability) - Interest Rates are relatively low for Money Market Accounts. We are watching a liquidity crisis begin to unfold. Wells Fargo cutting off personal loans - banks will be in trouble beginning in August. Loans are how Banks profit. The moratorium of eviction and mortgage defaults is lifted on July 31st. Defaults on loans are assured. Wells Fargo calling in all personal loans now in order to buffer the approaching defaults. When cash in Banks is reduced - the ability for Banks to weather a series of defaults is impaired - the impairment only serves accelerates the liquidity crisis merely weeks away.
FRED:M2REALShort
by HK_L61
3
BYFC in a familiar place right nowBYFC has been doing well, obviously, there's no denying that. However, it has approached another key level that is clearly seen on this chart. The 618 fib has been a constant level of resistance ever time BYFC climbs this high, over the last year. So this week, volume is likely going to be the potential driver of direction. Will it finally leave the 618 fib in the dust or is history about to repeat itself again? "In the past five days, shares of BYFC stock have shot up by over 12%. In the past six months, shares have shot up by a solid 53% or so. The main reason behind this solid gain is the overall housing market continuing to rise in value during this time. And as a company that is heavily correlated to the real estate market, BYFC is worth watching if the price of homes continues to rise. So, considering all of this, will BYFC stock be on your watchlist moving forward?" Quote Source: 7 Top Penny Stocks to Watch That You Probably Haven’t Heard Of
NASDAQ:BYFC
by PennyStocks101
2nd Day Testing Fib Resistance On LMFALMFA has some pretty well established levels if you look beyond that one big spike earlier this year. With the 786 fib line showing to be a strong pivot, the stock has stalled twice now, failing to hold above this level. It was strongly denied this week and looks like the follow-through momentum just isn't there to finish out the week. However, bigger picture the stock is still significantly higher than where it was in late May . Remember what Bruce said in that first ER: “Revenues from our community association receivables business declined as we continue to develop a digital asset technology strategy to unlock the potential of this business...We expanded our core business of buying discounted debt and collecting it through court proceedings with the Borqs transaction. We entered the Borqs transaction projecting to net $2 million and we were pleased to realize a $5.7 million return.” Quote Source: 4 Crypto Penny Stocks to Watch Under $5 Right Now
NASDAQ:LMFA
by PennyStocks101
Fifth Third BankI chose this ticker mainly due to XLF reaching under the 50% stochastic zone (Currently 44%). The previous day was at 61%. This told me that I could possibly find a support on a stock within the sector. It just so happens that the IWM (Russell 2k) dipped down to 28%. During the middle to end of May the highs touched near the resistance price of $43 about three times. The previous high was broken and the current low hasn't broken the strong support "yet". Looks like a W pattern is setting up for a retracement up to 61% of the previous high. This company seems like a damaged company that has valuable growth. That's just my honest opinion.
NASDAQ:FITBLong
by Redimere_91
A Success Tunnel for 360 DigiTech: Business TransformationChina's outstanding loan balance reached a fresh record of CNY 172.75 trillion in 2020 and keeps growing, spurred by the increasing digitalization and booming e-commerce market. In China, 2020 was a milestone year for fintech. The year saw heightened regulatory scrutiny, intensified competition and business patterns were altered by the COVID-19 outbreak, both in the corporate and consumer sectors. The Matthew effect in the industry has been further exacerbated under such circumstances, where small-sized companies with less capital or poor risk resistance ability will be forced to quit the stage. Although 360 DigiTech, Inc. (QFIN:NASDAQ) is a late starter, it is one of those niche players able to stand up to this fierce competition, mainly due to the reputation of its parent company – 360 Security Technology, Inc. (601360:SH) which brings significant brand visibility to the table. Strong performance with low valuation This USD 6.57 billion company is currently outperforming what the market expects. On May 27, 360 DigiTech released its unaudited financial results for the first quarter of 2021. The total net revenue increased by 13.1% to CNY 3.6 billion (USD 0.55 billion) from CNY 3.2 billion in the same period of 2020, while the non-GAAP net income reached CNY 1.41 billion (USD 0.2 billion) with an astonishing increase of 452.8%. The operating income along with the account under the non-GAAP measure achieved a growth of 745.7% and 533.0%, respectively. However, given this relatively strong financial performance, 360 DigiTech's P/E ratio appears to have been lower than that of its peers for a long time, although it is currently ranked the highest among the top four. Lexin (LX:NASDAQ), a leading online consumption and consumer finance platform, is also using technologies to encompass risk management and loan facilitation systems, just as QFIN does, but its P/E ratio is far higher than that of QFIN. For example, in the third quarter of 2020, Lexin's P/E ratio was more than 5 times that of 360 DigiTech; by Q2 2021, Lexin was lower than 360 DigiTech for the first time, at the level of 8.1. Along with the progressively upward stock price, the necessity of re-assessing 360 DigiTech is becoming more obvious. How the asset-light business model works 360 DigiTech is one of the earliest platforms in the industry to proactively initiate the transformation of reducing the proportion of self-operated loans and improving loan facilitation. This turned out to be an informed decision. In the third quarter of 2019, 360 DigiTech first proposed its new strategic target for adopting the 'capital-light,' or more commonly as 'asset-light' business model. More colloquially, this refers to the company directly navigating the borrower to their cooperative financial institution, while collecting service fees from credit evaluation, credit management, or other technical-related services. According to the published unaudited financial results of 360 DigiTech for the first quarter of 2021, the total loans originated by financial institutions were CNY 74.15 billion, of which CNY 37.25 billion (50.2%) was under an asset-light model and other technology solutions, achieving an astonishing increase of 211.9% over the same period in 2020. Haisheng Wu, CEO of 360 DigiTech, stated that "...over 50% of the loans were facilitated under the capital-light model and other technology solutions..." and it is a "fundamental change to the nature of our business, from being capital-driven to technology-driven." The highlight of this model is that as a loan facilitator, the company is not required to inject any margin for each loan. In other words, the credit risk of the asset-light business is borne by the capital; the loan facilitator is thus riskless. Besides, it can better respond to regulatory requirements and resist the impacts of uncertainty on business stability. Moving further towards 'tech' In policy terms, the tightening regulatory rules pose a little impact to loan facilitators like 360 DigiTech – even as fintech giants like Ant Group and JD Digits may suffer – as its targets are excess leverage and systematic risks. It creates opportunities for 360 DigiTech to jump a queue. The asset-light model is hence the core strategy of reducing the regulatory and credit risk. Besides, QFIN is trying to use less capital and more technology-powered services to open up more opportunities, both in terms of client acquisition and risk management. The improved portfolio quality, as indicated by the relatively low delinquency ratio, was one of the contributors for its shining performance even in the special 2020, although it showed an upward-trending slope for the period during the epidemic. However, it seems reasonable: due to the lag of loan repayment as well as its timeliness of statistics, the negative effects of China's -6.8% GDP in 2020Q1 only started to appear in the second quarter of 2020, causing a history of high non-payment ratio of 2.82%. Up to date, the company's delinquency ratio has nearly risen back to the level before COVID-19, and we will keep an eye on its future performance. Moreover, with a few innovations and technologies, for example, Argus RM Model, Intelligence Credit Engine (ICE), Cloud Bank System, Cosmic Cube System, Apollo Platform and AI Robots, 360 DigiTech is working hard towards the 'tech side' of the fintech business as well as being technology partners with banks. The strategic collaboration with Kincheng Bank (KCB) is a good example. The bottom line 360 DigiTech's asset-light model works well, and it has the potential to pay off from the long-term perspective, which brings further expectation for its growth prospects. The company's business expansion plans are proceeding with KCB as the first step. These strategies will further improve the company's flexibility in this competition for market share.
NASDAQ:QFINLong
by EqualOcean