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The 10-year UST yield breaks its supportThe 10-year UST (nominal) yields seems to have broken on the downside, despite slightly. If this movement were to continue, then the main winners would be : - US government bonds: over the short term only. - Precious metals and stocks in this same sector, which react positively to real yield drops. Indeed, like nominal yields, real 10-year yields dropped from -0,79% to -0,84% in one day. However, the main losers of this new downside dynamic for yields would be banks, which benefit from a steeper yield curve (i.e. banks like when the difference between short-term and long-term rates increases)
TVC:US10YLong
by UnknownUnicorn12046529
2
AUDNZD- Short Swing Trade OpportunityTechnical Analysis: -Price has been in a consolidation since 20th April. -We should wait for a retracement of the supply/liquidity zone to look for a short setup. -According to the algorithm, price could drop down 1.00% in the next 25 days. Fundamental Analysis: -There is high impact news on retail sales for AUD on Monday 10th . Sentiment Analysis: -The large banks are heavily short on this pair. Lets see how this trade plans out! Make sure to follow, like and comment your ideas for this pair!
Short
by LDForex_
Fundamental Friday - BACFundamental Friday (BAC): Gallacher's Fundamentals: 1. Select historically "Cheap" or "expensive" markets. - BAC is within uncertainty range level 1. - Financial sector is cheap, relative to tech. BAC has an 18.19 PE ratio vs 585 PE ratio of TSLA. - BAC is neither cheap nor expensive relative to rivals in the financial sector (JPM, GS, by RSI). 2. Develop a critical eye for what is "important" fundamental information to a particular market. - Important fundamental information in the financial sector is the longer-term Treasury yields, which I expect to rise this year. Long inflation. - Macro trend in Quad 2, excess capital generated will be used to buy back shares. Get (1) neutral, (2) bullish, or (3) bearish: - Bullish Some Warren Buffett Tenets: Is management rational? - BAC’s Brian Moynihan expects the bank will increase its dividend and boost its share buybacks once its passes its Fed stress tests. Last month, it announced a $25Bn share buyback plan with its excess cash. Focus on return on equity, not earnings per share. - ROE on a rising trend, 7.58% from 6.14% last quarter. Calculate “owner earnings.” - Owner Earnings = Net Income + Depreciation, Amortization +/- Other Non-cash charges - Full Capex +/- Changes in Working Capital (Assets – Liabilities or Shareholders Equity) - 17.1B + 2B – 6.2M + 16.2B = 34.7B/8.7B = $3.99 owner earnings per share. - Price to owner earnings: Current price = 42.36/3.99 = 10.62, vs. 18.19 PE Ratio (TTM), this is undervalued in the short-mid term. Look for companies with consistent and high profit margins. - Profit margin of 0.18 vs 0.1396 historical average (increasing trend). GLHF - DPT
NYSE:BACLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
2
Interest Rates Topping?/TLT Finally Making a Bottom?/Looks like the craze over high interest rates is coming to a congestion zone. If you go back to 2019, there were hella buyers at $135. I think we are getting to the point where such high interest rates, while the stock market is still skyrocketing, and yet the global economy has not recovered; or said better, investors are in denial. When interest rates are low, and the stock market is high - that's inflationary. When interest rates are high, and the stock market is high (making ATHs), and yet we are in the eye of a deleveraging, currency crisis - I can't help but anticipate a top on both rates and the stock market. At some point, the Fed will have to get people to buy bonds, or they'll do it themselves, to push down the long-end, and I think the stock market will get cold feet, and start selling off. That being said, there could be something more nefarious happening that we just aren't taking into account, which is the Fed just continuing the "we need to push inflation up" narrative until they are blue in the face (idk how they aren't already), and people continue to take on debt and play the euphoric stock market game until financials finally bite people in the ass. The fed knows interest rates going higher, in a crisis like this, is a ticking time bomb, and at some point, will have to give in, but that's the point - they're going to let the system panic and then they'll come in, once again, and lend a hand. What worries me, though, is why would anyone give a shit what they have to say at that point? No one can get loans when banks don't want to lend - e.g. people are in forebearance, people's businesses are closing or on the brink, people are malignantly unemployed in higher and higher numbers - fred.stlouisfed.org We're getting to the point where the risky money has to go somewhere, and it's either bonds, savings accounts, consumer debt, or stocks, and the fed will make damn sure that it's stocks or consumer debt. But what happens when people are exhausted and don't want to take on debt - or quite frankly just can't? Or when the stock market isn't going any higher and the support zones for every major index is thousands of points down? The money goes into savings, banks go insolvent due to lesser and lesser risk-on sentiment, and they dive into treasurys to find a safe haven for liquidity, and boom - you've got negative interest rates. I'm fairly certain this will be the case this year, and the Fed will, again, be forced to ramp up the emergency SPVs like we've never seen before, and virtually breaking every rule in the book so that banks stay solvent, and people continue to take on loans.
TVC:US10YShort
by MoneybagsMcGee
3
EURUSD Price action and technical analysisPatiently waiting for this set up. The Daily chart is now showing a strong bullish trend . Here you can see on the 30m chart a strong resistance level has been breached, how do we know this was a strong resistance level? Take a look how price reacted to the upper purple zone, we can see price head in to that area before being rejected sharply numerous times. We now know to break this level we are going to need a big push from the buyers, which we have now seen. I will share a chart below showing the volume profile of buyers pushing the price through the upper purple zone. On the other hand we had sellers trying to sell the market back down to the lower purple zone (we know where their stops are right? Yep you’ve got it, all their stops are placed above the upper purple zone) and on this occasion the buyers took control. So why does price push higher so fast? Well you know those stops I mentioned a moment ago, as they get hit they're now essentially buying the market, adding to the buying pressure. So what happens now? well, the big buyers entered lower down, they stacked up their positions and now the market has pushed higher, the market becomes too expensive for them to buy. So how do they get a better price? they wait for the market to drop back down, they let the sellers back into the market, as soon as price looks attractive they can enter again :) This is price action trading, if we see a sharp move back to the previous resistance area then it's not a trade to take, you want to see slower movements back with a slight consolidation around the purple zone before buying in. I hope this helps, feel free to drop me any questions you have.
by TheTwoTraders
Watch for JPM dip to $142Full disclosure...I believe that JPM's recovery from the COVID crash occurred for 1 of 2 reasons, maybe both: 1) They're too good at making money (or not losing it). 2) They're cheating. There are two concerning trends that I would like to point out with this analysis. I'm more inclined to believe the latter due to precedence, which increases the long-term risk for big dips. Yes, they will recover from any selloff, however, this is the reason that I do not like JPM long. The news regarding the soccer super league that would be financed by JPM is a big reason for the dip we are seeing now. Reports (credibility unknown) show that soccer fans are boycotting the bank for all the wrong reasons. If the stock breaks the lower boundaries of the wedge, I can see a selloff to a sub $145 region, which would provide a great buy opportunity, with a $163 price target in mind. The same goes for the upper limits of the wedge. The Head and Shoulders pattern gives me some worry about the possibility of breaking $150, before going below $145. Bold predictions as usual... JPM options usually prove to be extremely lucrative I believe that they are currently overvalued (especially at $160), I would love to hear some reasons for an oppositional opinion. *Share your thoughts and concerns with my views! **Not a financial advisor. ***Don't judge me on my winners. Judge me on my losers, because there are so few.
NYSE:JPMShort
by kambach
2