Get started

Banks

Look out below. Financial sector is sending huge warningThe financial sector is sending a huge warning to all skilled technical traders. You think this big rally in the NQ, ES, YM and other is really the bottom of the market? The stock market is based on perceived forward earnings, guidance and performance of individual stocks/companies. The COVID-19 virus event has blown a huge hole in the bottom of our boat. 40+ million US working out of jobs. Income levels dropping. Stocks rallying? WTH? The reality is that risks are quite high that a broader economic collapse will take place over the next 6+ months as the real collateral damage comes into view. TRAN and XLF are showing that the markets are not stable. HUGE risks continue just below the surface. You have been warned.
AMEX:XLFShort
by BradMatheny
1
WELLS FARGO ($WFC): Are They Gonna Send this Back to the 1800's?✨ New charts every day ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉 --- Depressing revenue and earnings predictions and a potential dividend cut aside, it is hard to justify shorting the big banks. Despite this, Wells Fargo's chart looks particularly bearish. While it is likely WFC will preform well in the future, it looks like for now this company founded back in the 1800's is about to get sent back to the 18.00's or lower. Given that, let's look for a short setup. Resources: www.earningswhispers.com + www.marketwatch.com --- 1. Fractal Trend is showing a downtrend (Maroon bar color) on the Daily timeframe chart. This makes sense given how the big banks have struggled in terms of share price while dealing with COVID. 2. With this strategy, we are looking for short setups in a downtrend and as such want to enter short on retests of bearish order blocks plotted by Orderblock Mapping (Maroon) and/or bearish S/R levels plotted by Directional Bias (Maroon). 3. As you can see, we are close to getting a short entry from the strategy at R1. The goal here is to see a rejection of this level and continuation to the downside. 4. The target for this move is S2, although we will look for reactions at S1 and consider scaling a portion of our position off there to lock in profits. 5. We will exit this trade if our stop is reached or if Fractal Trend signals an uptrend (Aqua) while our trade is still open. With all that said, it should be noted that a drop of this magnitude for the big banks represents a move not seen since 2009 back in the wake of the Financial Crisis. Thus, even though the setup makes sense, it also makes sense not to be overly aggressive with this short's position size and consider it more of an overall market hedge.
NYSE:WFC
by AlphaBotSystem
5
GBPUSD short - Supply Demand - h4 - Update (Power of S&D)Hello Traders! Great moves on GBPUSD. Price dropped down like expected. This is the power of Supply Demand. Cheers my friends. What now? My bias for GU is still short. We moved down from a h4 Supply Zone and we are right now at a h4 Demand Zone. From here we can expect both scenarios. If we do not have enough liquidity in the market price will push up to grab some more from the Supply Zone. Otherwise we will see a break of the Demand Zone. Recommendation Watch the market and enter at a valid Price Action Confirmation. I do not recommend to buy it. I would only consider to short it. If price will push higher I am happy because we have the opportunity for a bigger short trade. That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions. Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
Short
by DariusFxTrading
12
GBPJPY short - Supply Demand - step by step - How I am analyzingHello Traders! Today with a Video Analysis on how I am analyzing Supply Demand on my charts. Watch the whole video I share here different types of information. I hope you will enjoy it. Content: #1 bigger picture (higher timeframes) #2 market behavior -> Correction #3 last analysis #4 trade with the trend #5 trading plan
 - Swing Trading
 - Scalping
 - Daytrading #6 how to trade it? #7 Trading Strategy #8 Trend Lines That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. Write down in the comment section below are you short on GBPJPY? What trading plan do you have? Are you a Scalper, Swingtrader, Daytrader? Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
Short
by DariusFxTrading
10
Lower rates = worse bank profitability.Hey. I'd like to talk about the effect of lower interest rates on something called 'net interest margin'... In other words, how banks make money. The chart attached shows US commercial banks' net interest margin (blue) versus the target Fed Funds range (white). Net interest margin (NIM) is a measure of the difference between the interest income generated by banks or other financial institutions and the amount of interest paid out to their lenders (for example, deposits), relative to the amount of their (interest-earning) assets. What can we see from the chart? As the Fed Funds target range decreases, bank net interest margin does as well. Currently, there is talk of going negative, and just last week, Fed Funds futures priced in negative rates for the first time ever for the Dec 2020 meeting and the Jan 2021 meeting. This is important. See, if people are of the opinion that lower interest rates will lead to less bank profitability, then they are likely to short financial stocks. And if people are shorting financial stocks, it can lead to a decline in lending and liquidity in the economy - which leads to dampened demand. Over the last few years, a type of bond known as an AT1 (Co-convertible) has been used to try to sure up bank common equity tier 1 (CET1). This gives regulators a gauge of strength of the financial institution in question. It works like this... The investor buys the bond, and if the share price of the bank falls to a certain level, the bond is converted into equity to prop up the CET1 of the bank. The problem is that these investors (mainly hedgefunds and sophisticated investors), are alpha seeking... In other words, they will hedge the delta of the decline in their bond by shorting the bank stock. This creates a bit of a doom loop on two fronts, firstly by removing the validity of the AT1 instrument, but secondly, the decline in net interest margin leading to the shorting of bank stock and the incapability to adequately lend. Markets and economies function on liquidity, and without it, we are in serious trouble - which explains the lengths to which governments and central banks have gone to liquify *everything*... And why equities just keep going up... See lower rates and more QE lead to equity risk premium compression - that is, the premium paid to take the risk of investing into higher risk assets versus simply staying invested in riskless assets (such as government bonds) - and ends up with investors piling money into equity markets. If the perceived risk of investing into equities is a tiny bit greater than staying invested in risk-free assets, then you will get into equities. This is exactly what has happened over the last 10 years - and it's why the market threw a fit when the Fed tried to raise back in '18. Passive long strategies have become the norm - buying ETFs such as $SPY and simply holding - and this also affects bank profitability; less trading = less commissions paid to the dealer. This is one reason why so many banks have moved into high frequency market making activities - Volcker prevented them from prop trading, but allows for market making (which in the high frequency trading area is largely still prop trading, although trying to prove that is tough). Jerome Powell is expected to push back against negative rates tomorrow, and the rhetoric leading into this from Fed members has been that they do not like negative rates. It remains to be seen, but real yields across the curve from 1y-30y are currently priced negative... So what's the difference, really? (tongue in cheek).
F
by FinkPro
9
XAUUSD short - Supply Demand - Moves like expected 200pipsHello Traders! Great moves on Gold. It went like expected. The price went up to the Supply Zone to grab some more liquidity and boom it dropped 200pips in a short time. Very nice What now? For me price is between a Supply and a Demand Zone. I expect the price to drop more down. The final target for the short position will be the Demand Zone. From there we can expect movement to the upside. But also we can break the Demand Zone and then moving more to the downside. But I would wait for a Confirmation like a break and a retest before I am adding or entering shorts again. We will see. I will give an update for that. So for now for those who are in the trade set your SL to entry and have a risk free trade. Also put your Take Profit at the Demand Zone. That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions. Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by DariusFxTrading
6
GBPUSD short - Supply Demand - h4 - SetupHello Traders! On GBPUSD I see downside movement. We are right now at a h4 Supply Zone. I expect the price to drop down. It might go first up to the Supply Zone again to grab some more liquidity and afterwards we can expect the drop. Then I marked on the chart another Supply Zone. If we will break it, we can again short GU at the retest of the second Supply Zone. Target will be the Support Line and the h4 Demand Zone. Make sure guys to follow price action and don't just jump into the trade. Adjust this setup with your trading plan. That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions. Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
Short
by DariusFxTrading
11
XAUUSD long - Supply Demand - UPDATE - BANKS (Explained)Hello Traders! First of all I wanted to thank you for the huge engagement on my last XAUUSD analysis. I really appreciate that. So now let's go to the update and the explanation. What happened ? Yesterday I posted an Analysis on Gold with bias SHORT . Price went up to the mentioned Supply Zone(h4) but it never closed below this zone. Instead it closed above the zone and also it made a valid Triangle Break. From that moment Gold is marked as bullish. On Gold it is very important to wait for Price Action Signals and also to keep it on your watchlist. Because when the confirmation is given, Gold will rapidly react on the zones and will drop down or shot up. This is one of the characteristic behavior on GOLD. It is very aggressive. So keep that in mind. 2 possible Scenarios: I marked two possibilities on the chart. #1 Price will go up to the Resistance and then it will go down to the zone which then will became a Demand Zone and will shot up. #2 Price will drop down to Retest the Triangle and also there we have a nice Demand Zone. This Demand is very strong and if we will touch it, the probability for Gold to shot up is very high then. Recommendation My recommendation on Gold is to wait. We do not have clear signs of confirmation for any of the possible scenarios. Also it is Friday. I would wait for Monday or better for Tuesday to trade it. Also we got NFP News and for Gold it is also important to follow fundamental analysis. Normally when you trade Supply Demand you do not need to take care much about Fundamentals. The banks need to that. They are responsible if they are going to push the price higher or if they will drop it lower at specific fundamental news. We as Supply Demand trader simply follow them due to the footprints they leave in the market. ... but on Gold the whole uptrend is made by fundamentals: Corona Virus So for now stay out from Gold. I will not look for short right. I will try to buy it. If I will have a nice Setup on Gold I will share it with you. So stay tuned. Also check out my last couple Analysis on Gold to get an idea on how I am trading it and when I am doing it. That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions. Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by DariusFxTrading
14
EURUSD long or short - Supply Demand - h4 - EXPLAINEDHello Traders! Great moves on EURUSD yesterday. Price went up to our Supply Zone. Normally from here I would expect a nice drop to the downside. Also we got a nice price action call but the next candle was not great. It signalize us indecision phase on EURUSD. For those who jumped into the trade they can easily close it in profit or put SL to entry and have a risk free trade. But you can also trade it. but we can expect from here both sides. LONG and SHORT Now we can have a look at the DXY to help us with the correlation but also here like mentioned in the last DXY - Analysis we are in the middle of the 2 zones. So also the DXY can not help us with our trading decision. What we can do is to switch to the lower timesframes and to watch there for some price action signals in order to determine our direction. For me EURUSD is now not a high probability setup. In trading you should focus on high quality and better to trade less then to much. Quality over quantity . What you can do: But we also got one possibility. We can wait for the price to go in one direction and to wait for the retest of the Supply or the Demand Zone. At the retest you can then jump into the trade. You got only one problem with the retest. If the banks will have enough quantities in the market, then they will not let the price retesting their zone. The price will simply shot in one direction. Scalping: You can also simply Supply Demand Scalp EURUSD. Watch the lower timeframe like 5min and scalp it for a few pips. This is what I like to do personally on such conditions. That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions. Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
by DariusFxTrading
GBPJPY short - Head and Shoulder - Update (Banks, Stop Hunting)Hello Traders! Supply Demand: Quick Update on GBPJPY. We got a break of the Support Level and Price pushed down. Now the price went up and it grabbed some liquidity from the h4 Supply Zones in order to get a deeper push to the downside. Me personally I do not like to trade break outs. I like it more when the price retrace after a breakout to grab more liquidity from S&D zones. This are the best entries. This are typically banks moves for stop hunting. Retail Traders thinks at such movements that the market reverses, but the intention of the move to hit their SL. Important is to trade with confirmation. To see if the S&D Zones are valid. This way you are safe from fake breakouts and you have the best entry. That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions. Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
Short
by DariusFxTrading
6
BANK NIFTY Bearish Technical Analysis LTFBANK Nifty TA Update: BANK Nifty Now 19500 Point. This is Rtest Level after breakdown The support. So I can expect Next down leg soon if you short or put then you can exit first Support At 19048 Point. and after this support breakdown then next stoppage would be 18118 point. so now I take put at 19730 Level and waiting for Close at support level . Support: 19048/18200 Resistance : 19750/20300 if any candle close above 19750 level then this bearish chart exit and I will close my Trade. so keep an eye on chart. Please like and follow me for latest crypto and Stocks updates. Thank you
NSE:BANKNIFTYShort
by CryptoPatel
GBPJPY short - Head and Shoulder - Bigger Picture - WHY?Hello Traders! Like mentioned in the last analysis. This is my analysis of the bigger picture. Why do we need the bigger picture? This should be pretty clear. We can not always trade on the lower timeframes just because the charts look good for that specific setup. It is important to trade with the overall direction of the market. Therefore all you trade setup became more accurate. The bigger picture: So what do we see here. A nice Head and Shoulder Pattern on the daily timeframe. We are now about to break the neckline. Afterwards we will see a big drop. My target for that is the Demand Zone marked on the charts. For a nice entry check out my h4 GBPJPY analysis. On the lower timeframes we can determine a better entry. But first we need to watch the bigger picture in order to get more confirmation for our trade setup. Like mentioned in the h4 analysis. We may go up to the Supply Zone to grab more liquidity before we will see the drop. That was my Idea and I hope you liked it. Please leave a LIKE if you like the content. In the comment section you can share your view and ask questions. Thank you and we will see next time - Darius.
Short
by DariusFxTrading
2
Long term investors Opportunity!!We are on a all time low for Societe Generale at 14.5 and just below a major support never broke even in the middle of the 2008 crisis at 15.296 we should wait for the monthly close if it´s above or below 15.296 if above we will eventually rebond if not … ​ For the long term Investors the Dividend yield is 12.5% and the EPS (earning per share) = 3.085 you could add Societe Generale to your portfolio for the long term and keep buying on every low ​
EURONEXT:GLE
by magnum375
SPX trend line breach may signal breakdown pointIf you've been following my previous thread, you know that I've been watching the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA as possible reversal levels for this rally in the S&P 500. We eventually pushed past the 50-day (green curve), but yesterday we got rejected from a test of the 200-day (dark blue curve), and now we've violated the upward trend line (light blue line) that SPX has formed on its hourly chart over the last month. (In addition to technical resistance from the 200-day EMA, we also hit a fib retracement level and a couple important psychological resistance levels on the fundamental side-- 20-22.5 forward P/E, market cap 140% of GDP-- so there are lots of reasons to reverse from here). In my past experience with trend line breakdowns, the price often moves back above the trend line at least one more time, and then it either holds there or reconfirms the breakdown. That's already happened, as you can see on the zoomed-in chart: It's possible that we will move above the trend line again and retest the 200-day EMA before breaking decisively below the trend line, but personally I have already purchased puts. In terms of fundamentals, the overall news environment is starting to shift in a more negative direction, I think. Over the past month, the market has been driven by government stimulus, decent tech earnings, and optimism around reopening. It has mostly shrugged off bad news such 30 million job losses, a spate of corporate bankruptcies, and a flood of worse-than-expected 1Q economic data. Now, however, we're turning our attention to Q2. Q1 GDP fell only 4.8%, whereas Q2 GDP is forecast to fall 27.7%. The earnings numbers for Q2 are going to hurt a lot more than those for Q1, especially due to companies' high borrowing costs. Analysts are also predicting another rash of bankruptcies and debt offerings in May. Cities and states may announce new taxes to offset budget shortfalls. Meanwhile, the Fed is out of interest rate ammunition and slowing its balance sheet expansion. There's a bailout for oil likely coming in the next few days, and possibly an infrastructure bill in the longer-term pipeline, but federal stimulus is slowing down as the economy reopens. And if China's experience is anything to go by, reopening will be slow, with lots of logistical bottlenecks and false starts. Demand will stay weak because consumers are out of cash. Some states will reopen too early and have to go back into quarantine within a few weeks. I think we will retest the March low in coming months as investors realize the scale of the economic damage and that it's not a temporary thing. Big tech, I think will continue to outperform due to persistent fear of Covid-19. Airlines and cruise lines will continue to struggle, with some likely filing for bankruptcy in the coming year. Banks will remain hard-hit and highly risky due to continued default risk.
SP:SPXShort
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
12