BAC to New Highs (at least since the housing collpase)After 12 weeks of consolidation BAC broke out last week. Suggested increase of 13.4% or around a $4.00 move.
Two things to keep in mind are:
1. The resistance that will be met at 33.05, the highest price since 2009
2. One week didn't touch the mode, usually I don't chart a consolidation unless every candle in the consolidation touches. This was otherwise a pretty nice consolidation so I went ahead with it anyways.
Banks
XAUUSD LONG BUYExpecting price to drop lower supporting my break retest and enter strategy.
looking for a pullback closer to the 100% on the fib before looking to get into a buy.
if we see a buy i will be looking at key levels of 1283 to be hit. gold has been on a bullish run of late and without any major good news revolving around economies we can only assumed that gold is to climb higher.
lets see how this plays out and secure the bag together.
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Good investing opportunity on the U.S. banking sector.The KBE ETF, which tracks an equal-weighted index of U.S. banking stocks, has been rising on a very steady 1M Channel Up since the 2008 financial crisis and has recently rebounded on the latest Higher Low (RSI = 50.776, MACD = 0.640, Highs/Lows = 0.0000). This presents a good buy opportunity on banking stocks, which are expected to outperform the market in the coming years. Our long term target is 52.00 with 60.45 in extension.
XRPUSD BUYLooking for price to drop down towards a key level of 32300 before we see a strong push towards 35200.
Lets see what happens for the week ahead, this is more of a swing trade.
lets sit tight and make sure we secure the bag on this one because everyday is Monday day!
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"Top and Bottom Analysis" GGAL by ThinkingAnts4H CHART EXPLANATION
- As in our Weekly / Daily Vision, price bounced from the Confluence Level and broke the Ascending Channel.
- It has potential to move down towards the 17,94 Support Zone.
- However, theres a Bullish Divergence wich could be anticipating a Pullback to the Broken Ascending Channel.
We will be waiting for a resolution before looking for sell setups.
Updates comming soon!
MULTI TIMEFRAME VISION:
- Weekly
- Daily
Steve Eisman's Canada TradeSteve Eisman (depicted as Marc Baum in The Big Short movie) has publicly revealed the institutions he is shorting in anticipation of the next wave of credit normalization. They include RBC, CIBC, Home Capital Group, and Laurentian Bank. Steve has not revealed his targets or how far exactly the trade will go, so the estimates on the chart are my own.
As you know, I have been establishing net short positions on numerous banks around the world since the end of last year.
Long NBGIFStory : National Bank of Greece announced a Q2 net loss a couple of days ago which sunk it's share price to an almost all time low - with not much downside left (technically), continued reduction of the bad loans in it's books and a perceived improvement in alignment of Greek policies to the EU expectations a bullish case is not hard to build. Furthermore, technicals confirm a good entry level for this trade.
Entry Price : USD 2.15
Stop Loss : USD 1.49 (-31%)
Take Profit : USD 3.5 (+0.62%)
Expected Duration : 1-3 months
Eur/JPY - Momentum Change - BearishThe momentum in this pair has shifted to long term bearish.
Banks have been manipulating price since 08 march and many have suffered heavy losses, our team identified this move and have implemented shorts.
With a risk to reward ratio of above 3x (leverage weighted) this trade sets up for major profits.
Target 1 +180
Target 2 +360
Target 3 +540
Stops at -220
European Banking positioning for major declinesEuro interest rates are negative and the curve remains flat with no end in sight. This is destructive to net interest margin and the sustainability of European banks. Investors are stepping away from bank shares, having sold throughout 2018 and prices are back to 2009, 2012, and 2016 levels. European banks sector is now heading for a break to multi-year lows. Cycle bottoms are roughly 3.5 years apart. Mid-to-late 2019 marks the next bottom.
WFC forming a Head and ShouldersPossible Head and Shoulders pattern forming on WFC though too early to tell. The biggest test will be the trend line (black). If the stock breaks down expect a retest of the trendline before finally completing the H&S pattern. Based on how long the stock has adhered to the black trendline a break down would be a long-term bearish signal.
Note where the entry point is. Make sure the H&S is complete before entering. The unfilled gap is still lingering.
The two targets on the chart are past points of resistance and good places to take some profits.
Deutsche Bank Commerzebank Merger Good for EquitiesThe fundamental analysis of this is fairly easy. Mergers are good for stocks. Why? Because it usually means increasing profitability. Why? Because it oftentimes leads to reducing inefficiencies and eliminating two teams that could be consolidated into one whether its with commercial banks, foreign exchange desks, etc. This merger would lead to the cutting of 30,000 jobs in Germany which would clearly help push the mega bank in a positive direction towards profitability. If talks progress positively, expect both Deutsche Bank (bars) and Commerzebank (pink) to edge up. But let's not forget, these two banks' stocks have been in the gutter since the 2008 Financial Crisis and both greatly underperformed the DAX (dark blue) and the Eurostoxx 50 (light blue). More words on this here: anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Citi Bank Bullish Breakout?Can we see a breakout in NYSE:C ?
I currently say this because ever since the 14th of January of 2019 it has been consolidating between the resistance line at the $65.23 and the support at $60.81.
For myself the RSI and MACD are the most important indicator to me. As you can see the MACD has crossed just before the 3rd run to the resistance and the RSI is yet to be oversold.
Posting this today the price has came close to the resistance line just by $0.6. I believe that if we see the price break through the resistance than it will breakout and we can see the target price to be around the $69.00 range.
ALSO, there was a big right triangle forming and as of today it has also broken through the right triangle resistance line. So this should be interesting to look at if it can break through 2 resistance lines.
Swedbanknear time it could cover the dividend which is 8%. once the the buyers who caught the bottom have got there 10% and the dividen has been paid i expect theprice to double bottom on 150 (nice round number.
# If interst rates rise in Sweden this will be positive, at the momemnt this will be reveiwed again in may...
XRP - The Ugly Duckling...BUT...XRP have behind to RIPPLE who sell solutions(already live with some partners) of fast transactions(Xrapid, Xcurrent) with the option to use XRP, so if the partners decide to use XRP with this two services, the price of XRP possible will be launched more far than the moon, HOW MUCH? I DONT KNOW but just think a example, if they take the place of SWIFT or just become a PARTNER, SWIFT move per day $5Trillion and $1.25Quadrillion per year, SO JUST IMAGINE...AND this is just a EXAMPLE. THE CEO OF RIPPLE SAID "THEY ARE HERE TO HELP THE BANKS" and my friends I know crypto is supposed to avoid the banks but you still need to cash out to go to buy a sandwich or coffee(and no don't tell me that vending machines that accept crypto, I´m talking about normal common place like a little town and little coffee shop, they want cash or lucky they use a POS). I believe I will not see banks disappearing or struggle because crypto(at least not me because I will pass away first), the only possibility I see is adoption, Banks and big institutions want money and cryptocurrency beside any technology importance is a machine to make money and speculate.
So IMO is not bad to have A BAG OF XRP ROAD TO 100 USD OR ROAD TO __?__ USD
XRP is really THE UGLY DUCKLING inside crypto community but you know that tale right?
ETH WAS 5.86USD(LOWEST) DEC`16 AND 1424.30USD(HIGHEST) JAN`18, AND YES SUPPLY IS LESS BUT FOMO, RUMORS, FACTS AND LONG LIST DID POSSIBLE TO REACH THAT PRICE...SO WHY NOT XRP?
(AND NO I`M NOT A XRP FAN IF YOU SEE I JUST LIKE TO DO THIS KIND OF ANALYSIS)
NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE! JUST CRAZY IDEAS AS EVER.
HAPPY NEW YEAR 2019!!!
2019 WILL BE REALLY INTERESTING IN CRYPTO.
GBPUSD Buy ScenarioWe're in a very obvious Uptrend, seeking entry
at bank and big institutional levels around the order blocks
Optimal entry will be 1st order block and 2nd order block
listed on the chart. play price action and wait for a pull back in the
"20" price points aka Institutional S&R and seek 62% 70.5% and 79%
Fibo Levels for sniper entries,
GOLD where the big players set ordersMarked on the chart you can see some key levels 1356.478 ( resistance ) 1297.420 ( resistance ) and 1182.906 ( support )
You can see that price has touched and bounced off these levels 10+ times each, why do you think this is? this is because the big banks and the big players in the game set orders at these levels ( big amounts of money ) this will make the market move in the direction they want ( manipulating the market )
Now if we can identify these key levels that the big players are getting in the trades then we too can benefit from these, this is all we need key levels of support and resistance! Because if you spot these levels but wait for candlestick confirmation they you will probably miss the trade and loose out as the big players would have made there money and pulled out.
Keep an eye out for these key levels, and remember the HIGHER the chart timeframe the more RELIABLE the support or resistance level will be.
G-SIBs (Global-Systemically Important Banks) 'Too Big To Fail'"A too-big-to-fail firm is one whose size, complexity, interconnectedness, and critical functions are such that, should the firm go unexpectedly into liquidation, the rest of the financial system and the economy would face severe adverse consequences...Governments provide support to too-big-to-fail firms in a crisis not out of favoritism or particular concern for the management, owners, or creditors of the firm, but because they recognize that the consequences for the broader economy of allowing a disorderly failure greatly outweigh the costs of avoiding the failure in some way. Common means of avoiding failure include facilitating a merger, providing credit, or injecting government capital..."
-Ben Bernanke (2010)
Basal Committee on Banking Supervision, Bank for International Settlements (2013). Global Systemically Important Banks.
During the financial crisis that started in 2007, the failure or impairment of a number of large, globally active financial institutions sent shocks through the financial system, which, in turn, harmed the real economy. Supervisors and other relevant authorities had limited options to prevent problems affecting individual firms from spreading and thereby undermining financial stability. As a consequence, public sector intervention to restore financial stability during the crisis was conducted on a massive scale. Both the financial and economic costs of these interventions and the associated increase in moral hazard mean that additional measures need to be put in place to reduce the likelihood and severity of problems that emanate from the failure of global systemically important financial institutions (G-SIFIs).
The Committee is of the view that global systemic importance should be measured in terms of the impact that a bank’s failure can have on the global financial system and wider economy, rather than the risk that a failure could occur.
The selected indicators reflect the size of banks, their interconnectedness, the lack of readily available substitutes or financial institution infrastructure for the services they provide, their global (cross-jurisdictional) activity and their complexity.
Bucket 4
HSBC
JP Morgan Chase
Bucket 3
Barclays
BNP Paribas
Citigroup
Deutsche Bank
Bucket 2
Bank of America
Credit Suisse
Goldman Sachs
Mitsubishi UFJ FG
Morgan Stanley
Richard A Werner (2014). Can banks individually create money out of nothing?—The theories and the empirical evidence. International Review of Financial Analysis.
Thus it can now be said with confidence for the first time – possibly in the 5000 years' history of banking - that it has been empirically demonstrated that each individual bank creates credit and money out of nothing, when it extends what is called a ‘bank loan’. The bank does not loan any existing money, but instead creates new money. The money supply is created as ‘fairy dust’ produced by the banks out of thin air. The implications are far-reaching.
HD Macleod (1855). The Theory and Practice of Banking.
These banking Credits are, for all practical purposes, the same as Money. They cannot, of course, be exported like money: but for all internal purposes they produce the same effects as an equal amount of money. They are, in fact, Capital created out of Nothing.
René Guénon (1945). The Reign of Quantity and the Signs of the Times.
The control of money by the spiritual authority, in whatever form it may have been exercised, is by no means exclusively confined to antiquity, for without going outside the Western world, there is much to indicate that it must have been perpetuated until toward the end of the Middle Ages, that is, for as long as the Western world had a traditional civilization. It is impossible to explain in any other way the fact that certain sovereigns were accused at this time of having ‘debased the coinage’; since their contemporaries regarded this as a crime on their part, it must be concluded that the sovereigns had not the free disposal of the standard of the coinage, and that, in changing it on their own initiative, they overstepped the recognized rights of the temporal power.
Since money lost all guarantee of a superior order, it has seen its own actual quantitative value, or what is called in the jargon of the economists its ‘purchasing power’, becoming ceaselessly less and less, so that it can be imagined that, when it arrives at a limit that is getting ever nearer, it will have lost every justification, and that it will disappear of itself, so to speak, from human existence. Since pure quantity is by its nature beneath all existence, when the trend toward it is pressed to its extreme limit, as in the case of money, the end can only be a real dissolution.
Laurie Law, Susan Sabett, Jerry Solinas {NSA} (1996). How to make a mint: the cryptography of anonymous electronic cash.
In particular, the dangers of money laundering and counterfeiting are potentially far more serious than with paper cash. These problems exist in any electronic payment system, but they are made much worse by the presence of anonymity. Indeed, the widespread use of electronic cash would increase the vulnerability of the national financial system to Information Warfare attacks.
Satoshi Nakamoto (2008). Bitcoin: A peer-to-peer electronic cash system.
A purely peer-to-peer version of electronic cash would allow online
payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a
financial institution.