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Bank Stocks Are Back To Bullish ModeBank stocks have collapsed back in March, but don't forget that markets go from pessimism (fear) to optimism (greed) and vice versa. Looking at the KBE (Bank Sector ETF) chart, we can see a completed three-wave A-B-C corrective decline after a five-wave rally, which gives us a nice bullish setup formation. So, after reaching important 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and GAP from November 2020, we may easily see bulls back in the game, especially now that is trying to break first bullish evidence level. However, keep in mind that bullish confirmation is only above channel resistance line and 50 region, while it's above the 30 invalidation level. US banks face large capital increases under final Basel plan.
AMEX:KBELong
by ew-forecast
Charles Schwab - The Harbinger Of The Next Crisis?While I believe that the markets are currently standing on the edge of a cliff and will not produce a new all time high, it's very important to note that price action is yet to confirm that, with the most significant catalyst of them all being Wednesday's FOMC. Wednesday's FOMC is important because whether the Fed hikes again and how much they hike will determine what happens with bond yields, which determines what happens to bond prices (inverse correlation), which determines what will happen with the U.S. Petrodollar. There's no FOMC again until September. I discuss what I think will happen this week in the following call: ES SPX Futures - Welcome to FOMCmageddon Charles Schwab is an important piece of the U.S. banking structure because it's the 10th largest bank in the country. When you take a look at recent price action on banks, everything seems to be going pretty well, and it's almost as if the Silicon Valley Bank crisis never happened. SIVB's demise, however, was a really significant canary in the coal mine because that particular bank was not only one of the largest in the country, but a major intermediary between the West's venture capital community and the Chinese Communist Party. You just absolutely have to keep an eye on what's going on with China and the International Rules Based Order right now, because everything "Taiwan War" is really talking about how the globalists can take control of China as the CCP falls. Based on this, I think Taiwan Semiconductor is a significant long hedge right now because it's not a component of the U.S. indexes, and is a world leader in silicon wafer production: TSM - Taiwan, Your Semiconductor Long Hedge China is the world's 5,000 year country and has huge natural resources and a huge population of very sophisticated people, so it's a target. If Xi Jinping is smart, he will weaponize the 24-year persecution, organ harvesting, and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million believers to protect himself and the Motherland. But if he does this it means that the entire world will quickly be implicated in the Nero-like persecution of spiritual cultivators of an upright faith. The impact on the markets, our society, and our reality will be extreme. And oh so hard to bear. I can only say if you want to be long at this point, you need to be hedged long on volatility or you might die. VIX - The 72-Handle Prelude The enormous Schwab dump from March, which you primarily see was a fully manifested failure swing only on the monthly bars: Was spurred on by the banking crisis, which served as a prelude to the very significant bear market rally we've had. Now everyone believes new highs are in order and everything is going to be fine. It's time to go long, go on vacation, and collect money while being hammered in a speedo at the beach with the other men. What a painful hangover. The problem with the more up more right now crowd's thesis on Schwab is that the entire range above where we're at, and we're already flirting with the 79% retrace of the March gap down, was already filled, which we see on the weekly: Moreover, there are two significant price action problems with the bull case from a market maker perspective. The first is that Schwab dumped to exactly $45.00 in the first place. Computers don't like preserving round numbers and people just love to put stops under/at psychologically significant whole numbers. The second is that the COVID dump was likewise $28.00. And for the same reasons, that's even more dangerous. I am predisposed to believe that Schwab is likely to be the next Credit Suisse-style big short, and may even be the vanguard for the next crisis that would take us under SPX 4,200 and towards 3,700 in accordance with the new JPM collar, which I discuss below: SPX/ES - An Analysis Of The 'JPM Collar' As for what the fundamental story will be, it's very hard to say. But let's compare Schwab's monthly bars you see above to some other top 10 banks: Bank of America Monthly Does not show any indication of failure swings and really just looks like a healthy retrace. While Wells Fargo does not look strong enough, it also does not yet indicate a real short setup on higher time frames And this is even more true for JP Morgan And Goldman Sachs Which can be, at worst, only be said to be setting up for the first leg of a failure swing. At worst. And thus it is extremely notable that Charles Schwab is as weak as it is. My call is the thesis that the optimal short entry is already here, with some kind of flirtation with the $70.00 mark due for FOMC. And if Schwab and the banking sector and the equities sector are truly bullish, that would be great, but I still expect a stab back into the "wick play" area before it would move to set a new all time high, which means $69 to $50 is really quite the win if you're short and quite the loss if you're longing the top or haven't taken profits. If Schwab and the banking sector are really the catalyst for something as disastrous as Nasdaq 9,000, then the target is under $28 and you're more or less standing on the edge of The Big Short. Right now, with the VIX as suppressed as it is and price as high as it is, January '25 $55 puts are only $3.7~ with at the money puts being $8.3~ Just selling them on a flirt with $50 again, let alone $44.99, is already a big win. Humans never believe in anything until they can see it. It's one of their worst deficiencies.
NYSE:SCHWShort
by LordWrymouth
TFC Truist Financial Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold TFC here: Then analyzing the options chain of TFC Truist Financial Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 34usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-7-28, for a premium of approximately $1.25. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:TFCLong
by TopgOptions
BAC Bank of America Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought BAC here: Then analyzing the options chain of BAC Bank of America Corporation prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 30usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-9-15, for a premium of approximately $0.83. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:BACLong
by TopgOptions
1
Capitec C&H ready to rumble to R1,853Cup and Handle has formed on Capitec's Daily chart. We've had a disappointing 12 months with banks and its downside. And today, the price opened above the Brim Level. This means, the buying and demand is more likely to take the price higher. Other indicators confirm: 7>21 - Bullish Price<200 But price is heading to the 200MA RSI>50 Target R1,853. SMC Sell SIde Liquidity Below the C&H. You can see previous wicks touching the Order Block and then the price rallying. That's Smart Money buying up and sweeping selling from retailers. Only concern is the current downtrend, which is still intact. We need the price to break above, for the confirmation to really get this going. ABOUT THE COMPANY Founded in 2001: Capitec Bank was founded on 1 March 2001 and has its headquarters in Stellenbosch, South Africa. Retail Focus: The bank primarily focuses on providing retail banking services, such as savings, payments, and lending products. Innovative Business Model: Capitec was one of the first banks in South Africa to operate on a branch-based model rather than using separate branches for personal and business banking. Digital Banking: Capitec offers innovative digital banking services, including internet banking and a mobile banking app, which has won several awards. Affordable Fees: Capitec is known for its relatively low banking fees compared to other South African banks, which has contributed to its popularity. Unsecured Loans: Capitec was one of the first banks in South Africa to offer large, unsecured loans.
JSE:CPILong
by Timonrosso
Yields are mixed but all point higher, history repeating?🚨🚨🚨 Going to make a stink about #yield again. Short term #interestrates have been creeping higher. Let's👀@ #bond Yields. 6M = holding steady, trading slightly higher. BUT, 1Yr = BROKE RECENT HIGHS. It's at resistance but shows momentum. 2Yr = Closing in on TSX:SVB closure high. This is where #banks began to break down. 10Yr TVC:TNX @ current downtrend is being tested. Break through is good. HUH? Higher = good short term for #stocks. Markets have a history of breaking AFTER rates begin to trade lower and yield curve normalizes. This can take a year or so. Not saying markets will be pumping for a year. Just saying this is historical. We could be setting up for much more upside but with RISK. We posted on the 2008 yield crisis some time ago.
TVC:TNX
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
$GS Trade Idea - Bank Stress Test With the Bank Stress Test showing positive results, here's a possible trade gameplan for GS into qEnd provided conditions are met and we have a bullish reaction to GDP + Unemployment numbers in pre-market tomorrow. The path on the 15 min chart looks messy since that's the lowest resolution I can publish, so I've included a 5 min version in the screenshot below. Ideal Gameplan: 1. Price opens above risky area shown on chart and holds above the orange rectangle on the pullback 2. Long 6/30 $325C or $327.5C 3. Can cut some at 10 am if you wish, or hold for the push into 11:30 4. On the first decent pullback after 10 am, grab some $330C "lottos" if you've scaled out Cost Basis from the initial call position 5. By 11:30, price should've made an HH that will only be exceeded near the EOD or on Friday morning (can trim most/all of $330C here if you want) 6. If above conditions are met and price continues to base above $327.50-328 during the afternoon session, can look to re-enter $330C for the late-day push, holding final runners for Friday, but keep in mind there will be theta burn overnight Note: If price opens in the orange box shown, or enters orange box during the initial pullback after open, it's best to wait until the orange box is safely cleared, as there is a chance we backtest the afterhours PA under $320
NYSE:GSLong
by bullspacman
2
👻The Movers and Shakers: Meet the Big Forex Players👻 🍀The forex market is a dynamic and complex marketplace, with billions of dollars changing hands every day. At the center of this volatile financial landscape are a handful of key players who wield immense power and influence over the direction of global currencies. In this article, we'll introduce you to some of the biggest and most influential forex market players. 🌸The Central Banks: "We set the tone for the entire forex market." Perhaps the most important forex market players are the world's central banks. These powerful institutions have the ability to control the supply and demand of their respective currencies, through interest rate policies and other monetary maneuvers. Whenever a central bank makes a move, traders around the world sit up and take notice. 🌺The Big Banks: "We are the gatekeepers of the forex market." Big banks are another major group of forex market players, and they play a critical role in providing liquidity to the market itself. These institutions act as intermediaries, buying and selling currencies on behalf of their clients and helping to facilitate trades between different market players. 🌼Hedge Funds and Trading Firms: "We thrive on volatility and uncertainty." Hedge funds and trading firms are a relatively new entrant to the forex market, but they have quickly become some of the most important players. These firms are often staffed by experienced traders and analysts who use complex algorithms and trading strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements. 🌹In conclusion, the forex market is a complex and ever-evolving landscape, but understanding the key players involved can help investors and traders make more informed decisions. Whether you're following the moves of central banks, working with big banks, or leveraging the insights of hedge funds and trading firms, the forex market is full of opportunities for those who are willing to take the risk. Please cheer me up with a like and a nice comment😸❤️ Please, support my work with like and comment! Love you, my dear followers!👩‍💻🌸
Education
by AnabelSignals
7
Central banks navigate the last stretch of the tightening cycleThis week we learnt how vital Central Bank communication is to global financial markets. The trio of central banks – The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held their respective meetings. Each of the central banks tried to convey how they will navigate monetary policy amidst a slowing economy and avoid a hard landing. China takes small steps to shore up the recovery Even the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the markets this week, by announcing a cut in the 7-day Open Market Operations (OMO) by 10Bps to 1.9%1 which paved the way for another cut to the one-year medium term lending facility rate by 10Bps to 2.65%2. These recent developments mark a more proactive stance by Chinese policy makers in trying to tackle the Chinese slowdown in activity since the re-opening. Clearly more is needed. Policymakers are soliciting opinions from business leaders and economists on how to revitalise the economy in a number of urgent meetings3. While the Fed and ECB are trying to tame inflation, China has the opposite problem as inflation remains low. Manufacturing remains weak, exports are slowing, and credit growth is cooling. This is why it’s no surprise that the markets are prepping for a broader package of stimulus targeted towards the ailing property sector. A hawkish skip for the Fed The recent flurry of economic reports continues to show the US economy is holding up but losing steam, supporting the Fed’s approach of changing the pace of its policy tightening. The Fed kept the fed funds rate in range of 5-5.25%, by unanimous vote, in line with market expectations after 10 straight hikes dating back to March 2022. The Fed’s dot plot showed the median rate at 5.6% versus 5.1% a month back. In the summary of economic projections, the median unemployment rate forecast was revised lower from 4.5% to 4.1% by the end of 2023 while the core inflation rate was revised higher from 3.6% to 3.9% making the case for more hikes this year. This clearly was a hawkish skip. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was careful to point out that no decision was made on a July hike, but he did say it is a live meeting, leading the market to increase the probability of a move. What surprised me the most, was that Powell said rate cuts would be a couple of years out which is at odds with the dot plot forecast of 100Bps of cuts in 2024. Senior Economist to WisdomTree Jeremy Siegel believes the Fed is done hiking and that alternative inflation metrics which incorporate real time housing inputs show inflation running at 1.4% instead of 4.1%. This is based on alternative shelter inflation calculations using Case Shiller Housing and Zillow rent annualized at 0.5% instead of the 8% that is biasing Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI higher. ECB’s revised inflation forecasts remain at odds After raising the deposit rate by 25Bps to 3.5%, the ECB was a lot clearer than the Fed in signalling that rate hikes are almost certain next month on July 27. The ECB remains too optimistic on growth, reducing their projection for 2023 real GDP to only 0.9% (from 1% in its March projections). While I would agree with the ECB’s view that (1) mostly labour-intensive services will support economic growth over the next two years and (2) the current hump in wage inflation will show up via higher prices for these services, I remain sceptical amidst the global headwinds for manufacturing, and a slower pace of overall growth could keep inflation as high as the ECB now projects. While wages are likely to accelerate slightly above 5% in 2023, they should begin declining to 4% yoy by late 2024. We believe, if core inflation continues to recede in the coming months and the real economy grows at 0.4% in 2023, the ECB will stay put in September after a final move next month. As expected, the ECB confirmed that it will stop to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds under its standard Asset Purchase Programme (APP) from July onwards. It won’t offer new long term liquidity injections upon the expiry of the €477Bn of a TLTRO III liquidity measure on 28 June 2023. BOJ sits tight As expected, the BOJ kept all key policy settings unchanged, including the +/-50Bps band around the zero% Japanese Government Bond JGB yield target. Since taking the helm in April 2023, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the high cost of premature tightening as the economy is finally seeing green shoots toward sustainable inflation. In contrast to the ECB, the BoJ's latest assessment and outlook for the economy and inflation were also largely unchanged from their update in the April Outlook Report. The BoJ continues to note "extremely high uncertainties" surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad." Japanese equity markets reacted positively to the BOJ’s status quo stance on monetary policy. Looking ahead, the Fed’s potential pivot back to a hawkish mode versus the BOJ’s dovish perseverance could pave the way for further upside for Japanese equities owing to the underlying weakness in the Yen versus the US dollar. Sources 1 Bloomberg on June 13, 2023 2 Bloomberg on June 15, 2023 3 Bloomberg on June 14, 2023
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by aneekaguptaWTE
UPDATE Nedbank heading nicely up to R238.56UPDATE from last time. I thought we would get a bit of a pull back before the upside push, but I was mistaken. Regardless, the price was expected to move up and up it is going. This W Formation that formed and broke out gave a decent Risk to reward 1:2. And At this point where the R:R =1 it's even safe to bank half profits and move stop loss to breakeven. 7>21 RSI>50 Target remains at R238.56 ABOUT THE COMPANY ~ Nedbank Group Limited, commonly known as Nedbank, is one of the largest banking groups in South Africa. (Part of the Big Five!) ~ The company was established in 1888 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa. ~ Nedbank is a subsidiary of Old Mutual Limited, a financial services conglomerate. ~ The bank operates in various segments, including Retail and Business Banking, Corporate and Investment Banking, and Wealth Management. ~ Nedbank offers a wide range of financial products and services, including personal and business banking, loans, mortgages, investments, insurance, and asset management. ~ The company has a significant presence in South Africa, with a network of branches and ATMs across the country. ~ Nedbank has also expanded its operations internationally and has representative offices in several African countries, as well as operations in other regions such as the United Kingdom. HOW NEDBANK GOT ITS NAME Nedbank's name is derived from its historical roots. When the bank was established in 1888, it was originally known as the Nederlandsche Bank en Credietvereeniging voor Zuid-Afrika (Dutch Bank and Credit Union for South Africa). Over time, the name was shortened to Nederlandsche Bank voor Zuid-Afrika (Dutch Bank for South Africa) and eventually to Nedbank. The name "Nedbank" reflects the bank's Dutch heritage and its focus on providing banking services in South Africa.
JSE:NEDLong
by Timonrosso
💾 Truist Financial Corp. (7th Biggest Bank USA) | Crash AheadThe chart here looks almost identical to PNC Financial Services Group... We've been receiving countless spam from banks offering all sorts of products, dozens of emails and phone calls every week... Now we understand why... It seems like they are desperate for money. TFC Weekly Chart: ✔️ Notice how the green weeks have low volume vs the red weeks which have high volume. ✔️ The bearish cross on the MACD is very telling. It is already crashing. It started dropping in January 2022 and soon things sped up. It is the same as with the SPX and the rest of the indexes the only difference is that these banks produced the worst week in a long while while the averages still have to move below support. Major crash ahead looking for the bottom. After the bottom is hit a long-term recovery should take place. Namaste.
NYSE:TFCShort
by AlanSantana
2
💾 U.S. Bancorp 2008 Type Of Crash IncomingWe are now at #5 of the TOP10 biggest banks in the USA, this one seems pretty bad as well. Let's start with the weekly chart and then we move to the monthly for the bigger picture: ✔️ This week USB had the worst week since Feb. 2020, Covid days. ✔️ A major support level failed in the form of 0.618 Fib. which can lead to lower prices. ✔️ We have a bearish cross on the MACD and RSI trending lower; I will show you the charts this time. USB Weekly MACD: USB Weekly RSI: ✔️ While the monthly chart lost EMA10 and EMA100, support was found at MA200. ✔️ The MACD is trending down while already bearish. How far down it goes will depend on the politics, how much money they decide to print, if the banks will get a bailout or not, etc. We have to see how it all develops. The side effects of raising interest. They wanted to crash the economy... It is working. Namaste.
NYSE:USBShort
by AlanSantana
6
$DXY & Yield calls were on point, again. Banks ok for now?We post a lot of ANALYSIS with ideas & what we're seeing BUT Keep an eye out for the ACTUAL CALLS We called rally in TVC:DXY & #yields, we got that over last month + Recently we stated that #bonds likely found a bottom = yields topping & Stated that TVC:DXY was looking weaker #Dollar cratering & Yields falling This COULD save, at least for now, another wave of bank collapses TVC:TNX might be lil tougher call as the bounce was not as big
TVC:DXY
by ROYAL_OAK_INC