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Bank Nifty Trade Setup (29-May-2023)This will be my personal trade Setup, This is not an advice of any kind to initiate trade according to this setup. This is for only for my learning purpose and maintaining my trading journal. As posted in previous day setup that from price as Banknifty is in parallel channel with 44151 to 44071 as resistance zone and 43470 to 43370 as support zone and on 26-May-2023 price was near support zone after a sell off in previous sessions and it took support near that support zone and moved all the way up to resistance zone moving almost 400 points in a day. so far it was a good session and worked as per trade setup. ( Cannot post previous day chart to keep record of this price action have to look for previous day trade setup.) For tomorrow this will be my trade setup: 1.) If opens flat which is near resistance zone. if price doesn't hold near this resistance on 15 min TF then will look for selling after break of nearby support of 43880. If price took support on break of this resistance zone i will look for buying. (Views are bullish so will only trade against the primary trend with strict stop loss and target levels. 2.) If opens gap up above resistance zone and if takes supports above the resistance zone on 15 min TF with good candle pattern and volume. then will look for buying only for target will be open with stop loss of 44151 (ATH). 3.) If opens gap down at nearby support 43880 will look for price to take support or if it became resistance and target will be as per this parallel channel support zone which is 43750, 43650 and 43500. Things to keep in mind: As mentioned above views are bullish so will trade cautiously against the primary trend with strict stop loss and target level on downside. Hit like to keep me motivated for keeping my trading journal as it only take less then few seconds to hit like but it gives me motivation for preparing for my session. also one can comment how i can make it better or need any improvements in my trading setups and improving this journal. as this is my only trading journal not keeping any excel or any online sheets as i never used before.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by TradeInsights
They Will Protect the Banks, FRC is a LayupFirst Republic bank has been slaughtered due to the banking crisis in the US. FRC is backed by JP Morgan, the strongest bank on earth. Unless the Gov't wants all regional banks to fail and roll it all up in to the big banks, FRC should survive and if it survives, it can easily double from here. Obviously the sentiment on this stock and bank stocks in general are terrible right now, we'll see if that changes. If the stock falls into the single digits from here I will close the position.
NYSE:FRCLong
by inanis_
🔥 Is The Bitcoin Halving Causing Bull Markets? New Theory!The classical Bitcoin theory about halvings is that they "cause" bull-markets because the supply mined gets halved, leading to a negative supply shock and therefore increasing the value per Bitcoin. This is not a surprising theory since it makes a lot of sense and has worked in the past. But, is the halving really that important for the Bitcoin price? I've plotted the balance sheets of the largest central banks in white. If this line goes up, it indicates an expansion of the balance sheet (Quantitative Easing / QE), which can roughly be interpreted as printing money. It appears that Bitcoin bull- and bear-markets are highly correlated with central banks expanding their balance sheets. White line goes up, BTC goes up, white line goes down (or sideways) BTC goes down. I've marked two previous occurrences where the central banks started QE in purple. Bitcoin arguably started the bull-market from those points, and not once the halving (yellow) took place. From this chart we can conclude that the Central Banks are a decisive factor in the start and end of Bitcoin bull markets. Sure, the halving is a highly anticipated event among retail investors and manages to revive the interest into crypto, but I'd argue that QE (= a better investing climate) is the main reason why Bitcoin goes up and down in cycles. In other words, we can have a BTC bull-market during a period of QE without the halving taking place. We can't have a bull-market after the halving without QE. If you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Share your thoughts below 🙏
ECONOMICS:USCBBSLong
by FieryTrading
8
Rs 53.80 to put buyers back in controlWhilst the long term trend remains very much in favor of the buyers, traders should be looking to buy strength as prices have a successful move through the AVWAP from the most recent high. Right now, prices seem to be building up for another leg higher but our jobs is not to speculate but rather react as the market gives us good probability signals. Clearing 53.80 would put the buyers back in control and likely see prices retest the 57 - 58 area. Breaching through this would likely see a move towards the mid 65 - 67 range.
CSELK:SAMP.N0000
by xTDGS
Artificial Banks Wane: Bitcoin Ushers in Financial Epoch This chart shows a view of the top 8 banks in the United States and the charts go back to at least 2008 so you may see how artificial the bubble is. As the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hikes, a cloud of uncertainty looms over the banking sector. This trading strategy anticipates potential instabilities in major banks, which could catalyze a significant migration towards decentralized finance solutions such as Bitcoin. Higher rates could strain over-leveraged banks, leading to a fall in their value, while Bitcoin could rise as an alternative financial refuge. COMBINED TOTAL OF ALL 8 BANKS = 1.5 Trillion 1. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): $391.88 billion 2. Mastercard Incorporated (MA): $360.32 billion 3. Bank of America Corp. (BAC): $218.28 billion 4. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): $151.81 billion 5. Morgan Stanley (MS): $137.6 billion 6. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): $106.65 billion 7. Citigroup Inc. (C): $88.48 billion 8. U.S. Bancorp (USB): $46.62 billion The colossal $1.5 trillion valuation of these traditional banking institutions may give an illusion of robustness, yet this façade might not withstand the test of an evolving financial landscape. These banks, laden with their outdated models and susceptibility to Fed's rate hikes , represent a realm of finance that is increasingly becoming unsustainable. I believe a significant portion of the capital currently tied in these institutions is likely to flow into more resilient, decentralized financial systems such as Bitcoin. By doing so, investors may pivot from a seemingly sinking ship to a dynamic and emergent financial framework, embracing the future of finance with open arms.
NYSE:MSShort
by MichaelBsul
Is this our Bear Stearns collapse? In 2008 the Market rallied after the Bear Stearns collapse near March Trip Witch. Other banks stepped in to buy it up and disaster was averted! Or rather a 6 month stay of execution for the rest of them... The week of Sept 15th Lehman Bros collapsed, followed the next week by WaMu, then the next day by Wachovia. Wachovia would've probably survived if the other banks hadn't murdered financial stocks so bad. The dominos had started falling 6 months prior, tho. So, if the market rallies here, I'd look for a similar pattern to unfold. Compare mid-summer to see if it's valid.
AMEX:SPY
by Nicklaus68
SOFI: Bullish Head and Shoulders at a Bullish Butterfly PCZSOFI is currently trading and forming a Bullish Head and Shoulders at a shared confluence zone between the log scale 1.618 and the linear scale 1.272 Fibonacci Extensions which in both cases would be the PCZ of a Bullish Butterfly; While it is possible that it could go deeper into the linear 1.414 Extension I do believe that the action we're seeing from the price right now at the current level warrants a Bullish Entry. SoFi having just over $0.5B Under Management is overall a much smaller bank than many of the banks we've seen come down and may come to as an advantage as they have less liabilities and yet they are gradually growing.
NASDAQ:SOFILong
by RizeSenpai
Regional Banks are telling us everything about this market!Traders, Though, I've expressed this all along this past year, regional banks are now confirming everything I've stated regarding JPOW and the FED only having two choices about the future of the U.S. economy: deflationary recession/depression OR hyper-inflationary recession/depression. The line in the sand has been drawn and crossed. Should the FED attempt to rescue the economy by pausing rates or even pivoting, we'll likely see hyper-inflationary recession at the very least. On the other hand, should the FED continue to focus on tackling inflation, then recession it is. Watch this chart closely along with our DXY chart. They are currently leading EVERYTHING (stocks, crypto, commodities, real estate, everything). Stew
AMEX:KREShort
by stewdamus
🔥 Failling Banks BULLISH For Bitcoin & Gold: But Why?Over the last two months there's been several that have gone insolvent and got eventually bailed out by the FED, or have been taken over by larger banks. Initially, this looming crisis caused a lot of stress in the markets during the first two weeks of March. However, once Silicon Valley Bank got shut down & bailed out we saw a huge bullish move in both Bitcoin (helped by a short-squeeze) and Gold, whilst the Regional Banks ETF continued to make new lows. Yesterday, there was a another big bank that has gone insolvent and has been taken over by JPMorgan. Stocks fell significantly and the Regional Banks ETF made new lows because of sell-offs in other banks. This sparked another bullish move in both Bitcoin and Gold because investors are fleeing to safety. Physicals commodities like Bitcoin and Gold don't need a bank. You can buy them and store them either on your own PC or in your house. Furthermore, big banks like JPMorgan and the like saw their balances swell because they are deemed to big to fail, unlike smaller regional banks. With the FED most likely increasing the interest rates further, there's a decent probability for more (regional) banks to fail. This will most likely be bullish for Bitcoin, since more money will flock to the relative safety that Bitcoin offers. If the banking crisis will get very severe with, for example, big banks failing, it can spark a massive move of BTC towards >50k. The technicals don't support a move like this, but a macro-related event like big banks failing could trigger a massive influx of buyers. Future will tell. All we can see now is that regional banks in distress is triggering a flight to 'safe' commodities like BTC and Gold.
AMEX:KRELong
by FieryTrading
8
Strong Banks / Point of inflection for the Markets Bank Earnings have been great! Though, The market wasn’t overly thrilled about it. We believe this is due in part to the uncertainty it caused regarding the fed rate path. The bank failure(s) that occurred, and fear of continued failures, cast doubt on the feds ability to continue to raise rates. This elevated markets, in our opinion, in conjunction with favorable inflation and NFP reports showing a cooling economy.… then the bank earnings arrived snd acted as a headwind to the indexes. What we think is important to watch for: 1) ES1! 4200 This region has been a repeated battleground for Price action. and a close above it .. or failure at it, would be a good indicator for midterm direction. 2) FED comments on the banks earnings Overall bullish on the market- but I do think we may range for a bit longer. 3) XLF may yield sustained alpha
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WillNixTrading
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) bullish scenario:The technical figure Triangle can be found in the daily chart in the US company JPMorgan Chase (JPM). JPMorgan Chase & Co. is an American multinational financial services company. It is the largest bank in the United States and the world's largest bank by market capitalization (as of 2023).The firm operates the largest investment bank in the world by revenue. The Triangle broke through the resistance line on 15/04/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 9 days towards 145.00 USD. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 126.85 USD if you decide to enter this position. JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Citigroup (C) and PNC (PNC) all reported surging revenue and profits in the first quarter even as regulators seized some regional lenders and panic spread across the financial system in March. JPMorgan’s net interest income jumped +49%, as average loans increased +5% and net-interest margin expanded to 2.63% from 1.67% in the year-earlier period. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals and cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:JPMLong
by legacyFXofficial
When Fear Reigns Banking Majors GainIn times of crisis, investors rush to safety. When risk shows in places of safety, bank runs begin. One's pain is someone else's gain. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) & Signature Banks' combined assets at $300 billion is witnessing a flight to safety. At $300 billion, it is trivial relative to $23 trillion within the American banking system. Remember that the FDIC only insures deposits up to USD 250k. Both institutional and individual clients holding large deposits in regional banks are rushing to move their funds from regional to major banks. Between 2020 and 2022, regional bank index outperformed the broader bank index. Regional banks business was designed to be lean - collect deposits and extend loans to home buyers and local businesses. This was meant to be less risky relative to banking majors whose businesses were sophisticated and inherently risky. Hence the banking relief law passed in 2018, made regulations less onerous to banks with domestic assets of less than $250 billion. As a result, by end of 2022, US had 2,100 banks with $19.8 trillion in assets. Only ten out of these 2,100 banks had domestic assets more than $250 billion. Lax regulations led some regional banks astray with concentrated bets on customer segments and risk management of asset and liability maturity risk. With rates rising, tides receding, banks that were swimming naked became obvious. Chart below contrasts the impact of unrealised losses on select US bank's tier 1 capital ratio. It is little surprise that SVB imploded with such an adverse capital situation when unrealised losses were accounted for. Now as crisis of confidence in banking spreads across both sides of the Atlantic, depositors are rushing to move their money to larger safer bank and money markets. FT reported on March 15th that large US banks are getting flooded with fund transfer requests from regional banks. SVB has triggered a tectonic shift in depos­its unseen in more than a decade. Veteran hands know well that anxiety created by small shocks make larger crises less likely. JPM, Citigroup are among the beneficiaries of regional bank pains. To aid cus­tom­ers to move depos­its swiftly, these banks are tak­ing extra steps to speed up client onboard­ing. It is reported that these banks are reassigning employees to account opening linked jobs to handle workload and to hasten the process. HNI’s Shifting to Large Banks Despite the liquidity backstop promise extended by US Fed and US Treasury, depos­it­ors are moving funds into lar­ger banks such as JPM, Citi and Bank of America. This phenomenon is more so for accounts holding >$250k (the limit up to which is guaranteed by FDIC). The 25 biggest US banks gained $120B in deposits in the days following the collapse of SVB and Signature while smaller banks saw a net outflow of $108B during that period. This has been the largest weekly decline in deposits at small banks and poses the risk of inciting more financial instability. Citi’s private bank servicing wealthy individuals is opening accounts within a day com­pared to usual timeline of one to two weeks. Citi is reported to open accounts & initiate fund transfers even as new clients are under compliance checks. Larger banks are subject to significantly tougher regulatory scrutiny as a result they become attractive destinations for shell-shocked depositors. Portfolio diversification is not new. Long shadow cast by the debacle of three sizeable banks within a space of a week has exposed the fragility in the system. This has prompted depositors to diversify not only their portfolios but also their banks. Moreover, comparing the actual assets held by large banks to mid-sized banks: SVB and Silvergate, both of which collapsed had their assets largely held in bonds held to maturity or available for sale. For SVB, the maturity date was in the far future, posing liquidity concerns when a bank run ensued. By contrast, Silvergate largely had bonds available for sale but selling them all at once would have caused huge realized losses. Another interesting takeaway is the way in which each regional mid-sized bank adopts a different portfolio tailored for their specific clientele and their needs. Although, this allows them to fine-tune their operations and holdings, it comes with the downside of financial instability during periods of aggressive rate hikes and economic uncertainty. By contrast, Citigroup, JP Morgan, BoA, and PNC have portfolios that are well diversified with a healthy mix of cash & interbank loans, loans, bonds to maturity, and bonds available for sale. Crucially, their significant cash holdings allow them to weather the storm far better and eases any liquidity concerns for depositors. Capital Flow Towards Asset Managers Large asset managers are also witnessing an influx of funds. Seemingly the money is moving away from regional banks and into majors and asset managers offering access to money market funds. Money market funds which hold US Government Debt are considered the safest destination for large amounts of fund given the overwhelming uncertainty in the banking sector. They also have the added advantage of offering investors seniority in case of bankruptcy proceedings. Certain MMF’s are currently offering yields as high as 5.02% compared to a paltry 0.23% average for bank deposits, making the shift towards MMF’s a no-brainer for many. More than $300B has flown into money market funds in March taking the overall assets in money market funds to a record $5.1T. This also represents the largest month of inflows for asset managers since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Goldman, Fidelity, and JPM are the biggest beneficiaries from these inflows. Goldman’s US money market funds have increased by $52B or 13% since the beginning of the banking crisis on March 9th. JPM’s funds received $46B while Fidelity saw $37B of inflows according to data from iMoneyNet. Capital Flow into Gold Gold is one of the most prominent safe haven assets that investors look to in times of economic uncertainty and instability. This capital flow was seen during the 2008 financial crisis when bank deposits plummeted and Gold price skyrocketed. The same can now be seen on an even larger scale. Commercial bank deposits have plummeted well below even 2008 levels while the price of gold is teetering around $2,000/ounce, the highest price ever. Although, some gold investors choose to buy physical gold or jewellery, larger investors often opt for other instruments that are more cost effective such as ETF’s or Futures. This too offers the larger banks a huge opportunity to benefit from the inflow of capital into gold-linked products through their investment banking divisions. GLD, or SPDR gold trust is the largest Gold ETF. It saw a net inflow of $915M in March. The same can be seen in CME’s GC futures which saw managed money traders increase their net long positions by 5x or 83k contracts ~$16B. Trade Setup This case study illustrates potential gains to be harvested from spread trades as funds move from regional banks to majors. With rates remaining elevated the majors enjoy a comfortable Net Interest Margin. Rising deposit base by cherry picking high credit quality customers will enable banking majors to vastly outperform the regional banks. Therefore, this case study sets for three spread trades - (a) Long JPM and Short KBWR (1:3) (b) Long COF and Short KBWR (1:2) (c) Long C and Short KBWR (1:1) A spread trade requires that the notional values of each leg of the trade to be identical. Accordingly, the ratios above have been provided based on the closing prices as of April 3rd. Table below sets out entry, target, stop and reward-to-risk ratio for each of these trades. Long JP Morgan & Short KBWR ● Entry: 2.82 ● Target: 3.17 ● Stop: 2.62 ● Profit at Target: $16 ● Loss at Stop: $9.5 ● Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 1.7x Long Capital One Financial & Short KBWR ● Entry: 2.08 ● Target: 2.54 ● Stop: 1.9 ● Profit at Target: $21 ● Loss at Stop: $8.5 ● Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.5x Long Citibank & Short KBWR ● Entry: 1.01 ● Target: 1.19 ● Stop: 0.937 ● Profit at Target: $8 ● Loss at Stop: $3.5 ● Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2.2x MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com cme /. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NASDAQ:KBWBLong
by mintdotfinance
2
SI Silvergate Capital going to $0???If you haven`t sold crypto`s favorite bank, SI Silvergate, here: Then you should know that Silvergate Capital Corp, the parent company of Silvergate Bank, announced its closure and liquidation of assets on Wednesday. Shortly after, New York state banking regulators closed down Signature Bank to prevent the fallout from the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. Lawyers representing plaintiffs in a class action lawsuit by FTX customers against 18 defendants, including Signature and Silvergate, claim that these events will severely limit the amount of money they can access if they can prove the banks are responsible. Kerry Miller of Fishman Haygood, whose firm filed the lawsuit in Miami federal court, stated that FTX customers may have to rely on insurance policies covering the banks' top executives and board members since these events impose another hurdle. Haven`t seen any bidders for it, or other banks supporting SI SIlvergate. Most likely to file for bankruptcy and go to $0. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SShort
by TopgOptions
2