Banks
$C Citigroup catch upLooking at long term charts, the bank crisis has opened an opportunity to invest in bank stocks. Lowest risk is to go with the too big to fail banks. Citigroup is one of them. If you compare it to the other big bank stocks since 2008 you'll see that C has lagged behind while others recovered to pre-crisis levels. I think C can catch up in next few years. It is my choice to invest of the big banks.
$DXY US Dollar - INTERESTING patterns lately!!!US #Dollar took hit recently, recuperating
We called this pump while most were negative
Certainly broke the small recent uptrend it was in
NOW WHAT?!
RSI shows it's most likely going to some sideways action
BUT BUT BUT
LOOK WEEKLY chart shows it may be in Head & Shoulder Pattern - bearish
If #yield continues to rise so will TVC:DXY
BUT, how high can they go b4 #banks break again
Bank Nifty Trade Setup (29-May-2023)This will be my personal trade Setup, This is not an advice of any kind to initiate trade according to this setup. This is for only for my learning purpose and maintaining my trading journal.
As posted in previous day setup that from price as Banknifty is in parallel channel with 44151 to 44071 as resistance zone and 43470 to 43370 as support zone and on 26-May-2023 price was near support zone after a sell off in previous sessions and it took support near that support zone and moved all the way up to resistance zone moving almost 400 points in a day. so far it was a good session and worked as per trade setup.
( Cannot post previous day chart to keep record of this price action have to look for previous day trade setup.)
For tomorrow this will be my trade setup:
1.) If opens flat which is near resistance zone. if price doesn't hold near this resistance on 15 min TF then will look for selling after break of nearby support of 43880. If price took support on break of this resistance zone i will look for buying. (Views are bullish so will only trade against the primary trend with strict stop loss and target levels.
2.) If opens gap up above resistance zone and if takes supports above the resistance zone on 15 min TF with good candle pattern and volume. then will look for buying only for target will be open with stop loss of 44151 (ATH).
3.) If opens gap down at nearby support 43880 will look for price to take support or if it became resistance and target will be as per this parallel channel support zone which is 43750, 43650 and 43500.
Things to keep in mind:
As mentioned above views are bullish so will trade cautiously against the primary trend with strict stop loss and target level on downside.
Hit like to keep me motivated for keeping my trading journal as it only take less then few seconds to hit like but it gives me motivation for preparing for my session. also one can comment how i can make it better or need any improvements in my trading setups and improving this journal. as this is my only trading journal not keeping any excel or any online sheets as i never used before.
They Will Protect the Banks, FRC is a LayupFirst Republic bank has been slaughtered due to the banking crisis in the US. FRC is backed by JP Morgan, the strongest bank on earth. Unless the Gov't wants all regional banks to fail and roll it all up in to the big banks, FRC should survive and if it survives, it can easily double from here. Obviously the sentiment on this stock and bank stocks in general are terrible right now, we'll see if that changes. If the stock falls into the single digits from here I will close the position.
Debt Ceiling Issues Loom, Causing Market UncertaintyTraders,
I bring you another weekend market update. We'll discuss what the charts are telling us from a technical analysis perspective. Are there clues that the debt ceiling issues will be resolved? Can we obtain clues from our charts? Let's find out.
Stew
🔥 Is The Bitcoin Halving Causing Bull Markets? New Theory!The classical Bitcoin theory about halvings is that they "cause" bull-markets because the supply mined gets halved, leading to a negative supply shock and therefore increasing the value per Bitcoin.
This is not a surprising theory since it makes a lot of sense and has worked in the past. But, is the halving really that important for the Bitcoin price?
I've plotted the balance sheets of the largest central banks in white. If this line goes up, it indicates an expansion of the balance sheet (Quantitative Easing / QE), which can roughly be interpreted as printing money. It appears that Bitcoin bull- and bear-markets are highly correlated with central banks expanding their balance sheets. White line goes up, BTC goes up, white line goes down (or sideways) BTC goes down.
I've marked two previous occurrences where the central banks started QE in purple. Bitcoin arguably started the bull-market from those points, and not once the halving (yellow) took place.
From this chart we can conclude that the Central Banks are a decisive factor in the start and end of Bitcoin bull markets. Sure, the halving is a highly anticipated event among retail investors and manages to revive the interest into crypto, but I'd argue that QE (= a better investing climate) is the main reason why Bitcoin goes up and down in cycles.
In other words, we can have a BTC bull-market during a period of QE without the halving taking place. We can't have a bull-market after the halving without QE.
If you enjoyed this analysis, please give it a like. Share your thoughts below 🙏
Rs 53.80 to put buyers back in controlWhilst the long term trend remains very much in favor of the buyers, traders should be looking to buy strength as prices have a successful move through the AVWAP from the most recent high.
Right now, prices seem to be building up for another leg higher but our jobs is not to speculate but rather react as the market gives us good probability signals. Clearing 53.80 would put the buyers back in control and likely see prices retest the 57 - 58 area. Breaching through this would likely see a move towards the mid 65 - 67 range.
Artificial Banks Wane: Bitcoin Ushers in Financial Epoch This chart shows a view of the top 8 banks in the United States and the charts go back to at least 2008 so you may see how artificial the bubble is.
As the Federal Reserve continues its interest rate hikes, a cloud of uncertainty looms over the banking sector. This trading strategy anticipates potential instabilities in major banks, which could catalyze a significant migration towards decentralized finance solutions such as Bitcoin. Higher rates could strain over-leveraged banks, leading to a fall in their value, while Bitcoin could rise as an alternative financial refuge.
COMBINED TOTAL OF ALL 8 BANKS = 1.5 Trillion
1. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM): $391.88 billion
2. Mastercard Incorporated (MA): $360.32 billion
3. Bank of America Corp. (BAC): $218.28 billion
4. Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC): $151.81 billion
5. Morgan Stanley (MS): $137.6 billion
6. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS): $106.65 billion
7. Citigroup Inc. (C): $88.48 billion
8. U.S. Bancorp (USB): $46.62 billion
The colossal $1.5 trillion valuation of these traditional banking institutions may give an illusion of robustness, yet this façade might not withstand the test of an evolving financial landscape. These banks, laden with their outdated models and susceptibility to Fed's rate hikes , represent a realm of finance that is increasingly becoming unsustainable. I believe a significant portion of the capital currently tied in these institutions is likely to flow into more resilient, decentralized financial systems such as Bitcoin. By doing so, investors may pivot from a seemingly sinking ship to a dynamic and emergent financial framework, embracing the future of finance with open arms.
Is this our Bear Stearns collapse? In 2008 the Market rallied after the Bear Stearns collapse near March Trip Witch. Other banks stepped in to buy it up and disaster was averted! Or rather a 6 month stay of execution for the rest of them... The week of Sept 15th Lehman Bros collapsed, followed the next week by WaMu, then the next day by Wachovia. Wachovia would've probably survived if the other banks hadn't murdered financial stocks so bad. The dominos had started falling 6 months prior, tho.
So, if the market rallies here, I'd look for a similar pattern to unfold. Compare mid-summer to see if it's valid.
Regional Banks on the Brink!Zoom in and you will see that Regional Banks have closed several times now below this critical trend line. If the Fed fails to save them, deflationary recession/depression it is. I am banking on a Fed save. The Fed always protects it's own. Therefore, blow-off top incoming. Followed by hyper-inflationary recession/depression next year.
Should be a show.
Stew
Decision Time for Bitcoin this Week. Plus Some Positive SignsTraders,
Bitcoin has reached the end of a very important triangle. It's time to make a decision. This week we should find out if:
1) Bitcoin breaks up and beats our 30,500 resistance, or
2) Bitcoin drops from our triangle and retests our C&H neckline at 25,300
We are going to dig into the charts for a few more clues and I want to show you the charts that are most important for you to keep and eye on this week.
Stew
US Bancorp: Bullish Deep Gartley Piercing LineNYSE:USB is showing a big amount of Bullish Divergence on the Daily after printing a Bullish Abandoned Baby on the 1 Day Chart and a Piercing Line on the 2 Day Chart at the 0.886 PCZ of a Bullish Deep Gartley. If we hold above the lows it could eventually come back up to see 45-55 Dollars.
SOFI: Bullish Head and Shoulders at a Bullish Butterfly PCZSOFI is currently trading and forming a Bullish Head and Shoulders at a shared confluence zone between the log scale 1.618 and the linear scale 1.272 Fibonacci Extensions which in both cases would be the PCZ of a Bullish Butterfly; While it is possible that it could go deeper into the linear 1.414 Extension I do believe that the action we're seeing from the price right now at the current level warrants a Bullish Entry.
SoFi having just over $0.5B Under Management is overall a much smaller bank than many of the banks we've seen come down and may come to as an advantage as they have less liabilities and yet they are gradually growing.
Regional Banks are telling us everything about this market!Traders,
Though, I've expressed this all along this past year, regional banks are now confirming everything I've stated regarding JPOW and the FED only having two choices about the future of the U.S. economy: deflationary recession/depression OR hyper-inflationary recession/depression. The line in the sand has been drawn and crossed. Should the FED attempt to rescue the economy by pausing rates or even pivoting, we'll likely see hyper-inflationary recession at the very least. On the other hand, should the FED continue to focus on tackling inflation, then recession it is.
Watch this chart closely along with our DXY chart. They are currently leading EVERYTHING (stocks, crypto, commodities, real estate, everything).
Stew
🔥 Failling Banks BULLISH For Bitcoin & Gold: But Why?Over the last two months there's been several that have gone insolvent and got eventually bailed out by the FED, or have been taken over by larger banks.
Initially, this looming crisis caused a lot of stress in the markets during the first two weeks of March. However, once Silicon Valley Bank got shut down & bailed out we saw a huge bullish move in both Bitcoin (helped by a short-squeeze) and Gold, whilst the Regional Banks ETF continued to make new lows.
Yesterday, there was a another big bank that has gone insolvent and has been taken over by JPMorgan. Stocks fell significantly and the Regional Banks ETF made new lows because of sell-offs in other banks.
This sparked another bullish move in both Bitcoin and Gold because investors are fleeing to safety. Physicals commodities like Bitcoin and Gold don't need a bank. You can buy them and store them either on your own PC or in your house. Furthermore, big banks like JPMorgan and the like saw their balances swell because they are deemed to big to fail, unlike smaller regional banks.
With the FED most likely increasing the interest rates further, there's a decent probability for more (regional) banks to fail. This will most likely be bullish for Bitcoin, since more money will flock to the relative safety that Bitcoin offers.
If the banking crisis will get very severe with, for example, big banks failing, it can spark a massive move of BTC towards >50k. The technicals don't support a move like this, but a macro-related event like big banks failing could trigger a massive influx of buyers.
Future will tell. All we can see now is that regional banks in distress is triggering a flight to 'safe' commodities like BTC and Gold.
CapitecJSE:CPI seems to have topped in April 2022 and has been moving downwards since then. The stock enjoyed support near R1600 twice, the recent rally came to a halt as the price reached the trend line. Also, JSE:CPI is trading below declining moving averages; waiting to see how long the R1600 - R1500 level is going to hold.
Other banks are either declining or moving sideways, it's possible that the banking sector is weak.
MS: Pre Earnings Run ExampleMorgan Stanley has a pre-earnings run moving up to its earnings report ahead of the open tomorrow. Last quarter had a similar setup for swing trading.
The Year over Year comparisons are no longer impacted by the benefits of the 2020 - 2021 pandemic, when a few stocks had way above normal revenues. This is making many companies show what appears to be far better earnings reports.
Strong Banks / Point of inflection for the Markets Bank Earnings have been great!
Though, The market wasn’t overly thrilled about it.
We believe this is due in part to the uncertainty it caused regarding the fed rate path.
The bank failure(s) that occurred, and fear of continued failures, cast doubt on the feds ability to continue to raise rates. This elevated markets, in our opinion, in conjunction with favorable inflation and NFP reports showing a cooling economy.… then the bank earnings arrived snd acted as a headwind to the indexes.
What we think is important to watch for:
1) ES1! 4200
This region has been a repeated battleground for
Price action. and a close above it .. or failure at it, would be a good indicator for midterm direction.
2) FED comments on the banks earnings
Overall bullish on the market- but I do think we may range for a bit longer.
3) XLF may yield sustained alpha