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The SVB Collapse and Why It Matters To YouInteresting situation with the collapse of SVB (SIVB), the people have yet to realize we control the market not the central planners. and the collapse of SVB is a realization of that power. So , here is what i know from the very little articles and podcasts that I listen to and I will give you guys the why its important. From what i know is that SVB business model was somewhat risky in the first place, and their main consumer base was startups, and tech startups. hence the name Silicon Valley portion of Silicon Valley Bank. Now a little money education... in the world of money and currency (remember currency as current it will become important later) there is a concept called the velocity of money, basically the volatility of money. for my stock traders think the VIX. when the VIX is low there is no money to be made because money is not moving. but when the VIX is high there is plenty of money going around so why not use your dollars as napkins, right or "fun coupons"! this is the velocity of money the faster a person can make money move the more money they stand to make. the banks know this. So when you go to the bank and deposit your check your money is already out the door into something else before you're able to but your wallet in your bag or pocket. this happens because of what is called as the "fractional reserve system" and to be honest its a "F"ed up idea but has worked thus far. what this system means for every dollar you put into the bank, the bank can lend out 10$. A bank is a business it makes its profits by lending money, and when you save your money it cost the bank money, because of your .01% interest rate. the reason for the big push for open accounts is because the more open accounts the bank has means the more money they have liquid, which means the more they can loan out, which means the more they stand to profit. now as an insurance policy the US government makes the banks keep a fraction of their total account balances on site incase of what they call a "bank run" happens (get to what a bank run is later) Now, normally you dont notice this or even care because when you go to the bank and want to pull 100$ from your account its no big deal whats a 100$ when your dealing with 100s of thousands. you want a 100$ you get 100$ instantly. But want to see the system become a problem for you, if you have more than lets say 25,000$ or more in an account go try to pull ALL that money out and see what type of road blocks you encounter. they will make you give ID, reasons for shutting down the account, basically your first born child and your blood type. partly is because they really want to know why you're closing the account, because thats profits walking out the door. but the main reason is, they have to reach out to sister branches and other banks to pool that money together to be able to give it to you and this typically happens like over night. so if you think you're about to waltz into your local bank and demand a 25,000$ check right then and there you're sadly mistaken. the same exact process happens when you take out a mortgage, now your talking $200K and up so now there are more road blocks. whether you're the buyer or the seller. you sell your house for 500K and you think that check you deposited is there right when you get it... yeah its not! back to the currency comment money is now a currency it has to keep moving to keep its value. think of it as a river, mostly you can drink water from a river and be okay because bacteria cannot grow in moving water but drink water out of a pond and you just might catch Syphilis (sarcasm intended). money is the same way, the faster you can make it move the more you stand to make and the healthier the money is, if take money out of the river and stick it in your pond as a savings account inflation will eat it alive making it very unhealthy. Even historically before all this crazy inflation started happening the savings rate in a savings account was like 0.01% and inflation was around 2 percent. Now the importance of this lays with the SVB. When looking at their business model it seems solid... "invest in high beta companies, or higher risk endeavors, then to off set this risk we will load up on the safest paper assets money can buy... the US 10Y bond." Officially the US hasn't defaulted on loans before... i mean we will print more money before we default. I mean it sounds like counterfeiting if you ask me, but who am I just a low key, low level, low volume trader with a computer living in my moms basement :) sarcasm... or is it?! Well from the looks of it it would seem SVB bought a ton of these 10Y bonds in 2021 when the economy was ripping and roaring. So, when bond yields are down their prices are way up. So in the full swing of the "roaring 20's" yields were around 1.12X or keeping it simpler 1.1XX. so that must mean the value must of been sky high. My only rational thought for this type of purchase was the risk manager must of thought he could off load the bonds in the bond market for a nice profit thinking good times were going to continue. On the surface it seems okay high risk business model with a low risk counter weight. But "We the People" were leaving SVB, and going back to what i said about taking your 25,000$ savings out, and they were running out of reserves and their bonds were worth less than the paper they were "printed" on, so they filed a loss on their report. on the surface this was fine, because only die hards read a companies 10Q or 8A but all it takes is one... and there is always that one Guy... and not this Regular Guy either. I personally dont like the instability of the tech industry. i mean i do believe we will make a full blown terminator but i dont want to gamble on which company that is regardless of what the gain is... might as well go gamble in my opinion. So, because there was a mass exodus of accounts they were having a hard time fill orders so file your 8A detailing you're offering more stocks to drum up some money and it falls flat. people read said 8A and see that you dont have cash so the word got out and the consumers made a bank run. Dont get it twisted either this can happen to any commercial bank JP Morgan, BofA, Chase, Citi, Credit Suisse and the like. a bank run is when the majority of depositors want their money back now and they do it in close succession of each other forcing the bank to say "we dont have your money" so they in essence "run" to the "bank" to get their worthless paper. Now, what i just learned is back in '08 our amazing government passed legislation basically stating they will no longer bail out banks. (honestly if you guys know the piece of legislation please post it in the comments) I agree with this legislation because when I lost 15k on a bad USDCHF trade 7-8 years ago the government didnt bail me out. that was all my money... just gone in a matter of seconds. So the US government came out and said " we will make sure all depositors will get their monies back... How? step in Bail-Ins And again a bail in is something i literally just learned about... i swear at this point were just making -ish up at this point... ok so we know what a bail out is... basically the US government funnels all this cash into a failing business(s) and the tax payer picks up the tab. so what is a bail-in?... glad you asked a bail-in is when the depositors pick up the tab... How? well the FDIC picks up the first $250K and anything over that 250K is now funneled into bank to help offset the loss. so if you have $500K in the bank the first $250K is yours... uncle sam gives it back via FDIC (which that money has been long gone spent, so i dont know where theyre going to pull money from to keep this facade of the FDIC up) and the next $250K is the banks... So congratulations you have just become a unwillingly silent partner of a failing bank. -ishy news is that the current administration is trying to give more power back to the IRS and bring it back to its glory days like it was in the 80's so you wont be able to claim those losses on your taxes, if you had a business friendly administration you might actually have a fighting chance. i have a feeling the whole world is watching what is about to happen, because the entire banking system relies on high value accounts. if the US says tough luck that might send uneasy shock waves to all the high income earners and might make them want to pull their funds out of the banking system... there is a very interesting article on Credit Suisse that i want to read so ciao!
TVC:US10Y
by ARegularGuy
1
PACW PacWest Bancorp Breaking Out With VolumeWhile Bank Regulators are trying to put together a package to save FRC First Republic Bank with JPM and Morgan Stanley, other hammered regional banks are looking like a bottom. PACW has a book value of 29.50 and a cash per share value of 17 dollars per share. FDIC Insured deposits account for 40 percent of total deposits, making a run less likely than FRC which has a 20 percent of depositors . These are compared to SVIB and SBNY which had a total of 3% and 6% insured by FDIC.
PLong
by loves2spooge
💾 TD Holdings, Inc. | A Safe Bank, Something Different! (10th)We have a very strange finding here and something quite different. This is the 10th largest banking corporation in the USA by market capitalization. All the other banks had very similar if not identical charts, the exact same patterns, the same cycles, the same disconnect... TD Holdings, Inc. (GLG) is absolutely different. The stock GLG peaked in August 2020 and then went on a strong downtrend... I hope I have the right ticker and I doubled check... It hit bottom guess when, May 2022 which is when the first set of Cryptocurrencies hit bottom. Here is the chart: This can mean many things. Once we hit bottom, the only place left to go is up. This bank might be doing it right and not gambling with peoples money... Not sure but the pattern is different. When the upcoming banking system crash comes, TD Holdings, Inc. is very likely to be going up rather than down. Every since the May 2022 bottom it has been producing higher lows in a consolidation pattern. This one might be a good call, it is in the TOP10 yet it already hit bottom and is gearing up to go up. P.S. This analysis can be invalidated on a close below May's low, the charts can always change. Namaste.
GLong
by MasterAnanda
2
💾 Capital One Financial Corporation | Financial DetoxI started a series with the TOP10 largest bank in the USA. I went all the way through 8 and stopped... Let us finish now. Capital One (COF) is the 9th largest bank in the USA, the chart is also bearish and has been bearish since August 2021. This banking corporation as well as others have been going down for more than a year and the final phase of the bear market is about to take place. The type of correction we are witnessing is a Zig-Zag, 5-3-5. We have the initial 5-down mapped out, then the WXY correction and a new 5-down wave pattern starting to develop. This is Elliot Wave theory that I now mix together with my classic signals. The 0.618 Fib. retracement support level for the inflationary, money printing, bull-market of 2020-2021 has been broken. The current price trades below this level and closing below it confirms lower prices. Likely to close below based on all the bearish signals coming from this chart. ✔️ We have an established downtrend. ✔️ There is a bearish cross on the MACD (chart below). ✔️ The RSI trending lower. MACD: As I mentioned in my latest Bitcoin article, we still have some turbulence to go through in 2023. 2024 Everything should start to get better. All the weak banks will be flushed out and a new cycle will start. Just as we saw with Crypto where the gambling/weak companies were removed, the bear market works the same all across. Let's call it a "financial detox" once more. Namaste.
NYSE:COFShort
by MasterAnanda
7
💾 Bank Of Nova Scotia Bearish | Cryptocurrency Can Save You!I like this bank, I personally use it and they have been around for more than 100 years I think... I can see now why they are panicking but should they be worrying after being around for so long? The market moves in cycles... After a crash down comes a wave up. Anyway, the main support for the Bank Of Nova Scotia (BNS) is the Fib. retracement level at 64.95. Closing below it will lead to a major drop leading to 56.78 as the next support. This can go on and on until the bigger cycle unravels completely. Many banks will die forever but many will survive, adapt and change, adopt some form of Cryptocurrency technology and continue playing this game. The ones that will survive will be the ones that are willing to change and adapt to the current times. The ones that will die will be the ones that refuse to accept reality. Life is always changing. Everything is always changing. Imagine how everything looked like just 50 years ago... Imagine 80 years ago. If the companies of the past did not adopt the technology, all technologies, these are gone. The companies that bought computers, the Internet, setup a website and email, are the ones that went to the top. Just as you needed floppy disks and an Internet connection through a land line to stay on top... In the present day, 21st century my friends, you need to accept Cryptocurrency to stay on top. Namaste.
TSX:BNSShort
by MasterAnanda
3
Math matters again, stock index valuations reverting to mean avgmake math great again! DJI dow in this chart failed to break out higher and now looking for fair value amid panic. Credit Suisse, back in headlines today, banks getting balance sheet help, gold threatening higher. Im sure there are many baby boomers who need their retirement that strong considering taking profits and taking 4-5% this month. 5% on bonds is like 20 PE with less risk. 20 pe in stocks comes with 30 to 50% potential if they dont keep growing. businesses earning shrink in recession and PE valuations come down. do the math.
UShort
by ValuePig
8
XAUEUR breaking the up trend channel for more upside push!At the beginning of the year OANDA:XAUEUR broke the down side channel. While banks are bankrupting, we see once again gold is the safe heaven for many people. Most importantly for the central banks which have been accumulating physical gold. FED and ECB will struggle to further increase the interest rates. We may see new ATH within a couple of months! Crazy times again. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OANDA:XAUEURLong
by WhaleGambit
⚠️ 🔥 No Time to FOMO!!!! ⚠️ 🔥⚠️ 🔥 NO TIME TO FOMO!!!! ⚠️ 🔥 Goodday for the markets and Crypto as the news came out being ok: US inflation slows to 6% annual rate amid looming banking crisis Let me rephrase it: the worst news where avoided, inflation did not rise. Look at CPI chart maybe: SP-5OO gets rejected despite the predictions for a 'softer more dovish' monetary policy: In the meantime bank charts look pretty bad to me: What i called 'good scenario' level did work as support for BKX but it will be retested: Also, Credit Swiss is nothing but bad news: www.bloomberg.com Lastly , i really don't like this rejection on Wells Fargo: In a few words: let's be careful... No love these days, just volatility. The FXPROFESSOR
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FX_Professor
1
$DJI has HUGE BUY volume the last few hours$DJI bounce decently off support on daily charts. This may take some time to heal. However, IF #stocks can hold for the next few hours it can be okay. The only reason it's not pumping higher is $GS & $JPM, #banks. On the 4Hr we see a DOJI formed MORE than 4 hours ago & on the CURRENT 4 hr candle it is being ENGULFED WITH VOLUME. We want to see a close above 32k but higher will mean more conviction. The belief is that #rates will take a pause while we have this bank fiasco happening. 32500 is our full exit point. Although we have been loosening positions in this rally for the last couple hours. Would keep re-buying lightly on pullbacks. Bottoms can take some time to form.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Regional Bank Fears Continue... 😮‍💨Saturday night i decided to take a look at all major bank charts. I called 3 potential 'dangerous ones' and ended up guessing 2 of them right. One of them was First Republic. (you can ask me for proof if you are interested to confirm this). “First Republic’s capital and liquidity positions are very strong, and its capital remains well above the regulatory threshold for well-capitalized banks,” Jim Herbert, First Republic’s founder and executive chairman, and CEO Mike Roffler said in a statement. First Republic lists $213 billion in assets. The lender reached out to customers over the weekend in a bid to reassure them. “In light of recent industry events, the last few days have caused uncertainty in the financial markets,” First Republic senior executives said in an email to clients viewed by CNN. “We want to take a moment to reinforce the safety and stability of First Republic, reflected in the continued strength of our capital, liquidity and operations.” The federal bank rescue announced Sunday should help ease some of the pressure on the banking system, Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN. “But this is not a permanent solution and this will not be the final chapter in this story,” he said. What's next? Uncertainty.. I hope all goes well but in the meantime remember to look at Bitcoin . Just my humble opinion, perhaps I am right. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
NYSE:FRCShort
by FX_Professor
3
Real Estate Bank gone bad.... Join The #Bitcoin Alliance maybe?Saturday night i decided to take a look at all major bank charts. I called 3 potential 'dangerous ones' and ended up guessing 2 of them right. One of them was Western Alliance Bancorporation. (you can ask me for proof if you are interested to confirm this). Western Alliance Bancorporation: Uncertainty Prevails seekingalpha.com : Shares of the Western Alliance Bank (NYSE:WAL) have fallen victim to the uncertainty which materialized at light breaking speed in the financial sector in the second half of last week. The bank has similarities to the troubled SVB Financial Group as these (perceived) similarities, (even if they are not applicable to the same extent) create massive uncertainty here. Consequently, investors are selling first and depositors withdrawing before asking questions. A Quick Intro Western Alliance Bank is a Phoenix-headquartered bank which employs over 3,000 workers across more than 50 offices. After a though time during the recession of 2009, the company has seen a solid recovery. Originally founded as the Bank of West Nevada in the 1990s the company went public in 2005 and subsequently has steadily grown, surpassing the $50 billion asset market in 2021. The company describes itself as a national banking platform with (remote) offices located throughout the country, although many branches are located in the Western part of the country. The company has ten folded its asset base over the past decade, as that growth has come with greater diversification in the loan book (to borrower categories) as well. That said, 37% of the loan book is lent out in California and a substantial amount of loans is geared towards real estate. What's next? Uncertainty.. I hope all goes well but in the meantime remember to look at Bitcoin. Just my humble opinion, perhaps I am right. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
NYSE:WALShort
by FX_Professor
Biggest Drop since 2008 - Right After our Post 🙄Good that I always TRUST my Charts: US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has dropped 'nicely' since my last post, which was 'against the stream' since when i posted it Powell was being extra-Hawkish and situation was different. News: The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell sharply on Friday as the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank sparked a flight to safer assets such as government bonds. The yield shed at least 46 basis points over a two-day period, a sudden decline not seen since September 2008 , when the markets were in the throes of the global financial crisis. Perhaps by no coincidence, the flight to bond safety this week was caused by the biggest bank failure since the financial crisis. These were supposed to be 'Good news', rates could ease and markets (and crypto) could do better but unfortunately it all happened for the wrong reasons: Some Banks going bust. Better check my other posts today. Everything changes FAST so watch out for the CPI tomorrow: If inflation is better the Feds are saved...if inflation persists we could ALL be in DEEP trouble. One Love, The always optimistic Professor
TVC:US10YShort
by FX_Professor
💾 PNC Financial Services Group Looks Very Bad | Crash AheadIt is a repeat, the same over and over... Some banks are doing better than others which is expected yet PNC isn't part of the better group, this one looks pretty bad. The previous bank had no volume on the drop, here we have high volume... Let me show you! PNC Weekly: ✔️ PNC broke below EMA300 this week. ✔️ Bear volume has been increasing since Oct. 2021 and it keeps on going higher. ✔️ The MACD looks really bad and the RSI as well. The crash is already pretty advanced but it can go much lower. ✔️ The monthly chart reveals the true story... It seems we are looking at the worst crash in 15 years. The bear market should go fast in comparison with the bull market. Ever since the Federal Reserved was established bear markets became short in duration and bull markets long, because troubled institutions could easily access credit once the central bank was established. Before the Federal Reserve it was the opposite, bear markets were really long and bull markets short. Everything has its positive and negative aspects. I am getting tired of these... Not sure if I will make it to write the TOP10. Namaste.
NYSE:PNCShort
by MasterAnanda
1