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XAUEUR breaking the up trend channel for more upside push!At the beginning of the year OANDA:XAUEUR broke the down side channel. While banks are bankrupting, we see once again gold is the safe heaven for many people. Most importantly for the central banks which have been accumulating physical gold. FED and ECB will struggle to further increase the interest rates. We may see new ATH within a couple of months! Crazy times again. Disclaimer – WhaleGambit. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
OANDA:XAUEURLong
by WhaleGambit
⚠️ 🔥 No Time to FOMO!!!! ⚠️ 🔥⚠️ 🔥 NO TIME TO FOMO!!!! ⚠️ 🔥 Goodday for the markets and Crypto as the news came out being ok: US inflation slows to 6% annual rate amid looming banking crisis Let me rephrase it: the worst news where avoided, inflation did not rise. Look at CPI chart maybe: SP-5OO gets rejected despite the predictions for a 'softer more dovish' monetary policy: In the meantime bank charts look pretty bad to me: What i called 'good scenario' level did work as support for BKX but it will be retested: Also, Credit Swiss is nothing but bad news: www.bloomberg.com Lastly , i really don't like this rejection on Wells Fargo: In a few words: let's be careful... No love these days, just volatility. The FXPROFESSOR
CME_MINI:ES1!
by FX_Professor
1
$DJI has HUGE BUY volume the last few hours$DJI bounce decently off support on daily charts. This may take some time to heal. However, IF #stocks can hold for the next few hours it can be okay. The only reason it's not pumping higher is $GS & $JPM, #banks. On the 4Hr we see a DOJI formed MORE than 4 hours ago & on the CURRENT 4 hr candle it is being ENGULFED WITH VOLUME. We want to see a close above 32k but higher will mean more conviction. The belief is that #rates will take a pause while we have this bank fiasco happening. 32500 is our full exit point. Although we have been loosening positions in this rally for the last couple hours. Would keep re-buying lightly on pullbacks. Bottoms can take some time to form.
DJ:DJI
by ROYAL_OAK_INC
Regional Bank Fears Continue... 😮‍💨Saturday night i decided to take a look at all major bank charts. I called 3 potential 'dangerous ones' and ended up guessing 2 of them right. One of them was First Republic. (you can ask me for proof if you are interested to confirm this). “First Republic’s capital and liquidity positions are very strong, and its capital remains well above the regulatory threshold for well-capitalized banks,” Jim Herbert, First Republic’s founder and executive chairman, and CEO Mike Roffler said in a statement. First Republic lists $213 billion in assets. The lender reached out to customers over the weekend in a bid to reassure them. “In light of recent industry events, the last few days have caused uncertainty in the financial markets,” First Republic senior executives said in an email to clients viewed by CNN. “We want to take a moment to reinforce the safety and stability of First Republic, reflected in the continued strength of our capital, liquidity and operations.” The federal bank rescue announced Sunday should help ease some of the pressure on the banking system, Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN. “But this is not a permanent solution and this will not be the final chapter in this story,” he said. What's next? Uncertainty.. I hope all goes well but in the meantime remember to look at Bitcoin . Just my humble opinion, perhaps I am right. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
NYSE:FRCShort
by FX_Professor
3
Real Estate Bank gone bad.... Join The #Bitcoin Alliance maybe?Saturday night i decided to take a look at all major bank charts. I called 3 potential 'dangerous ones' and ended up guessing 2 of them right. One of them was Western Alliance Bancorporation. (you can ask me for proof if you are interested to confirm this). Western Alliance Bancorporation: Uncertainty Prevails seekingalpha.com : Shares of the Western Alliance Bank (NYSE:WAL) have fallen victim to the uncertainty which materialized at light breaking speed in the financial sector in the second half of last week. The bank has similarities to the troubled SVB Financial Group as these (perceived) similarities, (even if they are not applicable to the same extent) create massive uncertainty here. Consequently, investors are selling first and depositors withdrawing before asking questions. A Quick Intro Western Alliance Bank is a Phoenix-headquartered bank which employs over 3,000 workers across more than 50 offices. After a though time during the recession of 2009, the company has seen a solid recovery. Originally founded as the Bank of West Nevada in the 1990s the company went public in 2005 and subsequently has steadily grown, surpassing the $50 billion asset market in 2021. The company describes itself as a national banking platform with (remote) offices located throughout the country, although many branches are located in the Western part of the country. The company has ten folded its asset base over the past decade, as that growth has come with greater diversification in the loan book (to borrower categories) as well. That said, 37% of the loan book is lent out in California and a substantial amount of loans is geared towards real estate. What's next? Uncertainty.. I hope all goes well but in the meantime remember to look at Bitcoin. Just my humble opinion, perhaps I am right. One Love, The FXPROFESSOR
NYSE:WALShort
by FX_Professor
Biggest Drop since 2008 - Right After our Post 🙄Good that I always TRUST my Charts: US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield has dropped 'nicely' since my last post, which was 'against the stream' since when i posted it Powell was being extra-Hawkish and situation was different. News: The yield on the 2-year Treasury note fell sharply on Friday as the shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank sparked a flight to safer assets such as government bonds. The yield shed at least 46 basis points over a two-day period, a sudden decline not seen since September 2008 , when the markets were in the throes of the global financial crisis. Perhaps by no coincidence, the flight to bond safety this week was caused by the biggest bank failure since the financial crisis. These were supposed to be 'Good news', rates could ease and markets (and crypto) could do better but unfortunately it all happened for the wrong reasons: Some Banks going bust. Better check my other posts today. Everything changes FAST so watch out for the CPI tomorrow: If inflation is better the Feds are saved...if inflation persists we could ALL be in DEEP trouble. One Love, The always optimistic Professor
TVC:US10YShort
by FX_Professor
💾 PNC Financial Services Group Looks Very Bad | Crash AheadIt is a repeat, the same over and over... Some banks are doing better than others which is expected yet PNC isn't part of the better group, this one looks pretty bad. The previous bank had no volume on the drop, here we have high volume... Let me show you! PNC Weekly: ✔️ PNC broke below EMA300 this week. ✔️ Bear volume has been increasing since Oct. 2021 and it keeps on going higher. ✔️ The MACD looks really bad and the RSI as well. The crash is already pretty advanced but it can go much lower. ✔️ The monthly chart reveals the true story... It seems we are looking at the worst crash in 15 years. The bear market should go fast in comparison with the bull market. Ever since the Federal Reserved was established bear markets became short in duration and bull markets long, because troubled institutions could easily access credit once the central bank was established. Before the Federal Reserve it was the opposite, bear markets were really long and bull markets short. Everything has its positive and negative aspects. I am getting tired of these... Not sure if I will make it to write the TOP10. Namaste.
NYSE:PNCShort
by AlanSantana
1
🅱️ Are Decaying Banks A Bearish Bitcoin Signal?One of the main arguments we hear against Bitcoin is the fact that the conventional markets are to set crash really strong and this should take Bitcoin down with them. The argument goes like this. Install parrot like voice first. But, Bitcoin is a "risk-asset", if Johny the banker goes broke then all risk-assets must crash. The key word of course is the "must". People are making arguments and predictions all of the time based on assumptions. If this happens this something else "must" happen... All based on assumptions. Nothing "must" happen, what will happen is whatever happens. To destroy their argument completely, let's just go back to the basics. Bitcoin is not a "risk-asset". Bitcoin is only a "risk-asset" to a certain cohort, a certain group of people, in a certain town/city in a certain country. ✔️ Bitcoin is a new form of money. ✔️ Bitcoin is a technology, as well as digital cash. ✔️ Bitcoin is sound, hard money. ✔️ Bitcoin is the future of money. ✔️ Bitcoin was invented to protect consumers against decaying banks. The banks have been trying to kill Bitcoin for a long time now... Banks somehow look at Bitcoin as competition and they do not like competition. Banks crashing is a bullish signal for Bitcoin, not a bearish one. But, but... Bitcoin is a "risk-asset". Only if you are wealthy and buying Bitcoin to diversify your portfolio in order to make cash. For the rest of the world, Bitcoin is money, Bitcoin is freedom, Bitcoin is a technology that gives them back their power and protects them against abusive and highly fractionalized addicted to gambling banks. Don't you agree? Namaste.
Long
by AlanSantana
14
💾 Goldman Sachs Group Worst Since 2008 | Major Crash AheadI was about done but couldn't stop this without looking at the infamous Goldman Sachs Group, this is the 8th biggest bank corporation in the USA. The peak/All-Time High here was hit November 2021, together with Bitcoin and most of the worlds financial assets... Let's start with the weekly chart: ✔️ In January 2023 we saw the highest selling volume week since February 2016. This tells us that the insiders know what is coming and started the sell-off early on. ✔️ This week pushed GS below EMA50 and EMA100. ✔️ We are at the 4th consecutive week closing red and the financial bleeding seems to just be starting. ✔️ The RSI trending down like there is no tomorrow and the MACD histogram has gone red with a bearish cross. I'll show you the MACD because the bearish cross is always quite revealing: The monthly is the main chart above, the real bad news. ✔️ GS was still trading above EMA10 last month, breaking below this very same week. This tells us that there is still plenty of room for this stock to go lower. ✔️ The MACD is still above 0 (bullish) but trending lower. ✔️ The RSI is still strong (above 50) but in a downtrend. The biggest disconnect from reality so far from any bank can be seen on this chart. The Goldman Sachs Group (GS) holders, buyers, traders or whatever you want to call them, haven't been selling, they are still holding strong. Some people are going to experience a rude awakening... The worst is yet to come. The banking system is going down, that's my conclusion after reading all these charts. Thank you for reading. Namaste.
NYSE:GSShort
by AlanSantana
💾 Wells Fargo & Company Turns Bearish | Crash AheadWhat we are seeing with these banks are the side effects of massive monetary expansion. This is the result of the Covid money printing fest. We will soon enter the withdrawal phase ... Right now the banks are deep into the headaches. ✔️ Wells Fargo looks pretty bad. While last week you could say everything was fine based on the chart signals, this week nullifies months and months of recovery. Of course, there were many signals pointing to what is happening now from way back... If you track this chart you would be able to tell. The RSI and MACD peaked 2021, both have been building a very strong bearish divergence. The trading volume continues to decline and we have Elliot Wave Theory as well which calls for lower prices in the form of a correction. Let's look at the present time. Here is the chart: ✔️ The RSI jumped off a cliff. Trending lower strong. ✔️ This weeks candle moved below EMA10, EMA21, EMA50, EMA100, EMA300 and MA200; all in a single candle. ✔️ The highest bear volume bar is present this week since June 2022. This can be the start of the (C) wave in a classic ABC correction. The wave count is marked on the chart. The question comes up again, will Bitcoin crash together with the banks? It is possible but the charts are very similar. While these banks have gone down by 30%-40%, Bitcoin went down by 77% and they are going through the same pattern. Where these banks are headed is where Bitcoin has already been at but it can still go lower though. The things is that Bitcoin should work as an alternative to decaying banks, it was created to protect people for situations exactly like the one we are seeing now, to protect people from another 2008. We have to wait and see if the experiment will work. My hopes are very low though for these banks though. It is already being reported that the SIVB people paid their bonuses and did their insider trading before crashing everything... People are bound to get tired at some point. Namaste.
NYSE:WFCShort
by AlanSantana
💾 Citigroup, Inc. | The Chart Looks Different But Still BadCitigroup doesn't look as bad as BAC or JPM as it has already been going down strong since June 2021, it also didn't recover much from the 2009 crash and so there is less room for a crash... But it is still quite bearish, the chart! Here is the chart: Maybe this people are more down to earth and this is why their stock is doing worse, they know whats coming, their customers are more aware and so they have been selling for a long while. The others might be in the clouds. What we went through with the capitulation phase within the Cryptocurrency market and the November 2022 lower low the traditional financial markets still have to go through, we went through the process first. ✔️ Citigroup moved above EMA10 in December 2022 and after struggling a lot it managed to move and close above EMA50 last week. This week this is all lost and we have a high bearish volume close below this very important level. ✔️ Citigroup now trades below all moving averages, a very strong bearish signal. ✔️ What the chart is clearly saying is that a continuation of the bearish trend is likely to take place. Unless a miracle happens... Something like Trillions of dollars being produced out of thin air, this is like to crash as well with the rest of the giant banks... This is what the chart says. Bearish all across. The monthly chart, the main one above, is not as weak but still trading below EMA10 yet this month is still young. I am getting mixed signals on the monthly chart. The weekly chart reveals whats to come. When a timeframe is not clear, we can go to lower timeframes to get a better picture. Prepare yourself. Namaste.
NYSE:CShort
by AlanSantana
6
USDC(Stablecoins)👉🏻 Bankfalls 👉🏻FED Regulation 👉🏻 CBDCUSDC USDC - US, peg lost Price is recovering and is now $0.95 This happened because Silicon Valley has a big problem, i will not go into details of this problem and how much collateral is lost. The fact is that the price of USDC was dropping to $0.86 and the price has not recovered yet to 1$ I am writing this post on Sunday because tomorrow is Monday and there will be an emergency FED meeting and the most interesting Scenarios : 1. the USDC is recovering and all is well, but confidence in this stablcoin is lost. Because, I will note so far the price has not recovered, ok there is a liquidity gap in steiblocoin pairs, but here is a different situation. 2. What if the price doesn't recover What to do? -Where to move to USDT? There is a scenario, when most of people go to USDT and then collapse the exchange rate of USDT (apocalypse Scenario). - Go to cash - Speculative option (not financial advice) Short USDCUSDT using Bitcoin Inverse contract with 1x leverage. The underlying asset for collateral will be BTC and the trading pair will be to the dollar. Of course you will pay a funding. If BTC goes down, we will have a profit from the short that will compensate for the downside movement. If it goes up, and since the underlying asset is BTC, then at closing the position the price in dollars will be exactly the same. We can look at the chart of the UST The decline to 0.65, recovery to 0.92 and then you see what happened. Of course, these are two different companies, different approaches, different backgrounds. USDC is much more serious But if you have some large part of the USDC you decided to speculate and earn 10%+ and you are not calm, shouldn't you just get rid of that asset without putting your deposit at great risk. Any Stablecoin is now a risk you take on yourself. Considering perfect storm scenarios. And where it all goes, and the direction this CBDC is headed . As the FED says it doesn't see any advantage in digital assets Why the Fed hates cryptocurrencies and especially stablecoins www.cnbc.com Required reading👆🏻 Many banks involved in cryptocurrency transactions were caught twitter.com What's next This is probably the first time you will see this company FedNOW - is a service developed by the Federal Reserve for depository institutions in the United States. It will allow individuals and businesses to send instant payments. Banks will be able to create products based on the FedNow platform. FedNow is scheduled to launch between May and July 2023. In this case you don't need banks when you have a FED _federal reserve system account FedNOW will provide the end user wallet in FED "A dollar in CBDC form is a liability of the central bank. The Federal Reserve has to pay you back." The plan became clear? This is all to finish off both banks and most of the crypto market will be the regulation of the cryptocurrency market I'm all about regulation in this article 👇🏻 The show must go on Tomorrow is Monday, opening of U.S. markets, urgent Fed meeting, it will be fun. I want to add a positive, if there will be a collapse, and it will happen sooner or later, we will see on the market will be inefficiencies on which arbitrage teams, and other market participants will be able to make big money. Our team has been tracking some inefficiencies since 2019 the result was on the falls in March 2020 and May 2021. What will happen to bitcoin. We can see that when the USDC went down the price of bitcoin relative to it became higher than to the pair USDT. Bitcoin is digital gold, at the beginning of the digital age. Crisis is always a time of opportunity. Best regards EXCAVO
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by EXCAVO
7
SBNY Signature Bank next to Collapse? If you haven`t bought those 5X puts: Then you should know that Signature Bank's stock experienced its worst day on record following the collapse of SIVB Silicon Valley Bank and SI Silvergate. Due to high volatility, trading was suspended earlier in Friday's session, and the stock has continued to decline for five consecutive sessions. This downturn was triggered by the closure of Silvergate, the second major bank serving digital assets companies, as well as the regulatory shutdown of Silicon Valley Bank, the 18th largest bank in the United States. It has been reported that Signature Bank had exposure to FTX. I am still bearish on the company and i believe it will reach the $34 - $63 area soon! Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
SShort
by TopgOptions
You decide - SVB Financial collapse - who is to blame?A lot of talk on who is to blame for the SVB Financial collapse – this is the first big casualty of rapid rate hikes and tighter policy, but who is to blame and what are the next steps? -SVBs management – they invested short-term deposits in longer term fixed income assets – where a large % of its $120b securities portfolio lacked any kind of interest rate hedge (payers swaps were clearly needed) -SVBs management – In the past 8 months SVB had no risk manager - fortune.com - no one knows how they efficiently managed risk -SVBs management – the accounts showed they held $91b of its $120b securities in its HTM (assets Held to Maturity) book – these are assets they intend to hold until maturity but the accounting rules detail, that they don’t need to mark-to-market the moves in the underlying and report the ballooning losses – which again were not hedged. -SVB deposit mix - 93%+ were above the FDIC insurance limit – this makes depositors v sensitive to any capital concerns at the bank -SVB deposit mix - VCs had a rapid cash burn, as projects they back are typically driven by changes in interest rates (think Net Present value and Internal rates of return) – depositors took cash off SVB’s balance sheet to fund operations – SVB subsequently had to sell assets as their liabilities fell – we then see realised losses from buying securities at much higher prices. -Short sellers/investor base – shorts had an eye on unrealised losses from the worsening asset quality for weeks – the selling accelerated when the CEO/CFO/CMO disclosed they’d sold a chunk of stock on 27 March – it was over when the SVB took a $1.8b hit on its AFS securities available for sale on Wednesday – management sold $21b of its $28b book and announced a $2.25b in equity/debt raising - investors knew with conviction that depositors were fleeing – who supports a raising when liabilities are falling – no one sensible, raising pulled -The Fed - failing to know such a shift in rates would impact banks asset quality when its primary function is financial stability. -Regulation - Basel 3 - banks being forced to buy govt paper against deposits - v low risk weighting (perhaps required a hedge Hard to pinpoint this on one aspect IMO - I think there is a perfect storm going on – a lack of hedging of interest rate risk was clearly a dominant factor behind this. Top down this is a function of rapidly tightening monetary policy and the impact this had on both the asset quality and liability side of the balance sheet – we should recall SVBs model is not the same as others in the banking space, so its hard to say this is systemic – still we wait for the outcome on next steps on how deposits over $250k will be dealt with – we’re hearing they may get 50% back initially but a buyer would be the best solution The issue for regional/smaller banks comes if is we see some sort of haircut on the deposits claim over $250k – that could see a loss of confidence in holding deposits with other smaller banks names – we shall hear more soon, but broad contagion through the financial system seems unlikely, but it is a possibility given nearly 1/3 deposits in the banking system are uninsured – any bank with a large asset base and low equity are in the spotlight As said Friday this could be a nothing burger or have real impactions on economics - the big issue happens this week if we see no clarity on how depositors are dealt (seems unlikely) with and we get a hot CPI print
AMEX:KRE
by Pepperstone
31
📜 HISTORY LESSONS: When Banks Go Bust ..... Open war on Bitcoin amidst Banking worries: watch today's video here for all details: What happens when Banks go bust? The historical incident of Cyprus: 2012–2013 Cypriot financial crisis Banks in the small European nation of Cyprus go bust. Cyprus had 2 main banks: The Cyprus Popular Bank ('the Bad bank') was the second-largest banking group in Cyprus behind the Bank of Cyprus until it was 'shuttered' in March 2013 and split into two parts. A one-time bank deposit levy on all uninsured deposits there. Anything over the insured 100k was simply taken away! There also was a seizing of possibly around 48% of uninsured deposits in the Bank of Cyprus (the biggest one ie 'the Good bank') . What happened to Bitcoin then? It PUMPED for the first time to 1,200 (from around 100$ before the crisis). For reasons you probably understand, Just sharing this fact with you.. hope you find it interesting. I am just sharing a fact, everyone can take decisions for themselves. Wish you all luck, The FXPROFESSOR PS. I happen to be from Cyprus. Awesome place to live and economy has never been better here ever since our little 'Great Reset'. Come visit me in Limassol sometime: www.celebritycruises.com chatgpt on Cyprus haircut: The Cyprus banking crisis occurred in 2013 and was a result of the country's banks investing heavily in Greek government bonds, which lost value during the European debt crisis. This led to a significant reduction in the banks' capital, making them vulnerable to collapse. The Cypriot government requested a bailout from the European Union (EU), which came with a condition of imposing a "haircut" on bank deposits. The haircut, which was essentially a tax on deposits, was a measure designed to raise funds to stabilize the banks. Depositors with more than 100,000 euros in their accounts had to pay a percentage of their deposits to the government, while those with less than 100,000 euros were spared. This measure caused a lot of controversy and anger among the Cypriot people, as many felt that their hard-earned savings were being taken away without their consent. The impact of the haircut on people's deposits was significant. Depositors with more than 100,000 euros lost a substantial portion of their savings, with some losing up to 60% of their deposits. This caused a great deal of uncertainty and anxiety among the Cypriot people, as well as a loss of trust in the banking system. The Cyprus banking crisis and haircut had significant consequences for the country's economy. Many businesses and individuals suffered losses, and there was a decline in confidence in the financial system. The crisis also highlighted the interconnectedness of the European banking system and the need for greater regulation and oversight. In conclusion, the Cyprus banking crisis and haircut had a significant impact on people's deposits and the country's economy. While the measure was necessary to prevent the collapse of the banking system, it caused a lot of controversy and led to a loss of trust in the banking system.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by FX_Professor
10