Bitcoin - Absorption in PlayAfter the Shakeout at point 1 , Bitcoin is showing signs of absorption. Higher lows at point 2, 3 and 4 on decreasing volume signature suggest that supply is exhausted.
We are now testing the top of the big capitulation bar at point where supply has emerged in early September. Volume is still low (no evidence of supply) and the price action is constructive (higher closes, consistent demand). If supply does not emerge, the next logical price level to revit is $12K.
The current trading range 1-5 could be part of a much larger consolidation.
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Bitcoin Update: Change of Behavior, Accumulation ScenarioSince the beginning of 2020 Bitcoin has shown remarkable signs of absorption.
Let's analyze the bullish scenario.
WYCKOFF STORY
The analog upbars at point (1), (2),(3) indicate ease of movement to the upside.
The rally begins on expanding volume, supply is vertically absorbed at (4) .
Price has broken the overbought line of the major downtrend, a change of behavior (5) .
We are approaching the $10K supply zone in red where we expect to see a reaction,
but at the moment we do not see evident signs of exhaustion of the rally.
$10K is also an important psychological level for traders.
For the first time since July, the bullish scenario gains credibility .
The blue line on the charts indicates an unfinished rounding accumulation range.
SCENARIO #1
The long term consolidation can continue until the last
supply available on the top of the range is absorbed.
The demand area at $8000 is a strong value zone for a retest (6).
It would offer a long re-entry (7) .
SCENARIO #2
The rally accelerates and supply is vertically absorbed (8)
PATTERN FAILURE : break below danger area
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Happy trading,
Alessio