BARK a dog supply speciality stock Reverses LONGBARK is the stock of a relatively young company.It is now growing
and has had positive earnings The chart shows a reversal from the
prior downtrend which started with a double top in January.
The order block indicator shows a base of buy order blocks forming the support.
Upside is 45% to the resistance of the double top and the sell order
blocks. The anchored VWAP shows that price was supported by
the line of two standard deviations below VWAP in the deep
undervalued zone. However, with the reversal, price is now targeting
the VWAP itself which also could be an initial target for trade.
Fundamentally, no matter whether a recession is impending, people will care
for their dogs and sales should not suffer. If anything, people will seek
value deals compared with brick-and-mortar sources. Not a coincidence
but another dog-related stock WOOF is on an uptrend as well.
As a penny stock, this is a risky long trade however I also see the
reward potential. The call options for expiration on 5/19 are
priced at about $10 per contract making them very affordable
way to leverage the trade.
see also the stock analyst report linked here stockanalysis.com
BARK
Opening (Margin): BARK May 20th 2 x 5/7.5 Back Ratio Spread... for a 3.15 debit.
Comments: My dog got into my brokerage account and took this trade (and then ordered a bunch of Bark Box stuff).
Buying two 75 deltas out in May, selling the 50 delta to yield a synthetic position with a delta metric of around +100. I'll start looking at taking profit at 120% of what I put it on for.
$STIC -> $BARK ABC correctionBest time to enter a position at ABC corrections...
$Stic is a growing company that will be $BARK on exchanges on Tuesday 1st.
YoY revenue growth 79%
YoY subscription increase 73%
P/S ratio 3, could be 10 easily
Let's see it grow to 1bln MC
Monthly Bark Box subscription service to go Public via SPACBARK is a leading global omni-channel brand for dogs. They distribute products that include treats, food and plush chew toys via a monthly subscription called Bark Box. Customers love their dogs and want to provide them healthy food and treats in a fun way. Many customers post box openings on social media as the dogs go crazy to find out what's inside.
Northern Star Acquisition (STIC) is a special purpose acquisition company with $254m to deploy and another $2000 from PIPE investors. On December 17, STIC announced its intention to acquire BARK with the following details at an enterprise value of $1.6b. Ownership will be divided as:
1) BARK Equity (existing owners): 74.3%
2) PIPE Investors: 9.9%
3) SPAC Public Shares: 12.6%
4) SPAC Founder Shares: 3.2%
BARK's unique product offering and data-centric innovation seems to be a winning formula in a community of owners that deeply care about their pets physical and mental health.
A shout out to Jonah Lupton (@JonahLupton) for this pointer. He has a great newsletter you can find from his Twitter feed.
Fundamentals
Net revenue of $149m, $191m, $224m last three years (18,19,20)
Estimated net revenue of $369m, $516m, $706m next three years (21,22,34)
60% gross margins and improving via high quality subscriptions
1.1m subscriptions
Technicals
Up 37.58% since acquisition announce
25m Class A shares outstanding, 20m in float
$465.5m market cap (based on Class A)
Question
I'm not an expert on how the SPAC final merger works. But it seems that given SPAC Public Shares (25m Class A) represents 12.6% of enterprise value, the market is effectively valuing the merged company at $3.6b (465.5m / 12.6% = 3.6b). I'm curious from others what their view is on SPACs and whether you invest before merger or after merger. Looking at other completed acquisitions, you can find cases for both, but typically the price drops back to the $10 for the original issue.
Anyway, looks like a great opportunity to put on the watch list.