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ridethepig | GBP Market Commentary 18.12.2020📌 @ridethepig G10 FX Market Commentary 18.12.2020 Another early breakfast for Pound sellers, brexit occupies the sentiment throne and optimism has clearly vacated! Pound now has its eye on the breakdown as expected since yesterday and even a wishy washy deal will be a sell in the short-term. Johnson and VDL taking it to the wires will turn out to be the obstruction for another move lower will be difficult to defend. With 1.360x holding in fine style and shorts starting to enter with volume, quite heart-rendering.... Stay short GBPUSD looking for1.346x, 1.328x and 1.313x with invalidation above 1.372x; and long EURGBP above the 0.900x handle with main targets 0.92xx and 1.00x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
2
ridethepig | EURGBP Market Commentary 2020.08.03📌 Here we have a relatively straight forward move in play. After EUR held the lows buyers can follow through; true, clearly sellers are not in control and failed to obtain the powerful ABC sequence main target. In other words... buyers are aggressive, GBP exposure would be better off elsewhere. The mobility of UK market access will contract (at least in the short-term) with NDB and it's an illusion to say otherwise. EURGBP buyers can enter into play here and on the break attacking new highs at 0.925x as a quick flow target. Invalidation in the swing comes into play below 0.893x as at that moment it would be appropriate to bring things closer to home. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
10
Keeping the peace in a troubled world, IMF forecastsEven though yesterday in Japan, the USA and Canada was a day off on the financial markets we cannot but call that day like a calm one. As it was expected, a mini pound bubble burst. The lack of new positive drivers forced the most impatient to take profits of about 500 points. Plus, fears that the deal will fail again remains relevant. In particular, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said that the current version of the deal lacked detail, which could lead to potential time pressure (there is too little time to discuss all the important points - the summit will be held on Thursday). Our recommendation is to buy the GBP remains relevant. Remember about stop loss, because the potential of the pound growth is far from exhausted. It can still grow by 500 or even 1000 points. Today we are waiting for statistics on the UK labour market to come out, which may well trigger a surge of volatility. This should be taken into account when making trading decisions. Safe-haven assets remain relevant yesterday and the recommendation to buy the yen proved its worth. Indeed, there are many reasons for buying safe-haven assets. It would seem that the agreements between the United States and China have somewhat relieved the tension, but if you look at what is happening from another side, facts side, then nothing has been signed, and in general, we are talking only about the first phase of the agreement. That is, mass exiting safe-haven assets on such news would be at least illogical. As for the Middle East. Turkey’s ground military operation in Syria, the attack on the Iranian tanker - although these are links of different chains, they only emphasize how explosive the region is. Against this background, reassuring investors would look very strange. So today we will not only continue to buy the Japanese yen but will also restore our recommendation to buy gold. The reason for the growth of safe-haven assets today may be the IMFforecasts publication on the growth rate of the global economy. If (when) the Fund again lowers its forecasts, the demand for safe-haven assets will have to rise as well as the prices of gold and the Japanese yen. We draw our readers' attention to excellent points for entering a short position on the EURJPY. In this light, our position on oil purchases looks problematic. However, the tension in the Middle East and concerns about the oil supply on the market may well balance the weak forecasts for the growth of the global economy and, accordingly, the fears of weak oil demand in this regard. So while oil above 51.20 we will look for points for its purchases with a target of 55-56 (WTI brand).
Long
by Trade24Fx
The Gold Rush, pound success & our recommendations for todayRay Dalio is the founder of the world's biggest hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, which manages $160 billion. An American businessman with an estimated net worth of $16.9 billion. He recently has published a quite interesting essay on his LinkedIn account. Ray Dalio thinks the current era of low interest rates and quantitative easing might be coming to an end, paradigm that could see escalating conflict between capitalists and socialists is simple - gold. “I believe that it would be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing to consider adding gold to one’s portfolio,” the billionaire founder of investment management firm Bridgewater Associates said in a 6,000-word essay posted on LinkedIn. The logic of his thinking is approximate as follows. The debt market is becoming less and less investment attractive due to the low profitability caused by the ultra-soft monetary policy of the leading central banks. As a result, it is quite logical to assume that they want to redirect their capital from the debt markets to others. But the problem of many countries is that they freeze to debt markets forming the Ponzi, which is based on the constant debt refinancing. If investors stop lending money the currencies and stock markets will be among the victims. The stock market bubble will burst under such conditions, therefore, it is necessary to seek alternatives. According to Dalio, gold is ideal for investing - this will, on the one hand, reduce risks, and on the other, increase profitability. Yesterday turned out to be quite successful for the pound buyers. The reason for the growth was unexpectedly good UK retail sales outcome: + 1.0% m / m, with the forecast of -0.3% m / m. As well as comments from the main representative of the European Union at the Brexit negotiations, Michel Barnier, who said that the EU is open to negotiations about the Irish border status. Our position on the pound today is unchanged - we are looking for points for its purchases. Our other trading recommendations: we continue to look for opportunities to sell the dollar, oil and the Russian ruble. Gold has definitely climbed high so today we will sell it. As for Friday, your attention should be paid to Canadian Retail Sales, as well as The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index .
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx