BRN - CRUDE OIL Short opportunity📉 Breaking News: BRN Crude Oil Faces Bearish Pressure Amidst Global Uncertainty
Interest Rate Concerns: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller’s recent comments hinting at delayed interest rate cuts have raised concerns about sluggish economic growth. As a result, oil demand is expected to be curbed, impacting BRN crude prices
Pipeline Shortage in Canada: Canadian oil production is poised to hit a record high of 5.3 million barrels daily, straining the country’s pipeline network. This excess supply is contributing to the bearish sentiment.
Remember, the oil market is as volatile as ever, and unexpected twists can sway prices in either direction. Keep an eye on the news and consider diversifying your portfolio to mitigate risks during these uncertain times. 🛢️💸
Disclaimer: This post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always consult with a professional before making investment decisions.
Barrel
WTI: Crude oil prices are impacted by a dimming demand outlook.Despite limiting its highest daily gains in a week, WTI crude oil remains in a flat trend. US government representatives have stated that they are prepared to release 15 million barrels of oil from SPR.
In contrast to repurchasing shares and paying dividends, according to Biden, oil firms should increase output and lower gasoline costs.
He said, “My message to the American energy companies is this: You should not be using your profits to buy back stock or for dividends. Not now. Not while a war is raging,” Biden said. “You should be using these record-breaking profits to increase production and refining.”
Since the beginning of the year, the White House has released approximately 165 million barrels of petroleum from the reserve, out of a total estimated to be over 180 million.
This means the demand is diminishing.
However, if price manages to trade, break and close above 86.55 the setups would be invalidated making the bulls take charge.
Naughty Market Maker - Beware Green manipulation on hourlySorry TVC USOIL guys had to use this chart to show how naughty the set up is
THIS IS A SHORT TERM LONG IDEA- it will drop when they have unlocked their funds from Red Vector candles at the highs
Keeping this one short and sweet We hope. So it's no secret we stopped being aggressively Bearish when we failed to hit the next Green Vector candle below. (77.74)
We was talking something about doing (rising) double (it may do more) the fall in a rise to a new high. Well if $2.60 (260 pips) was the drop, $5.20 (520 pips) up from the low would put us up at $83 a barrel which we are very close to. We got out after a measly $3 and its now done $4.70.
(sad face) but we made up for it slightly with two $0.50 long scalps (hold one more as far as it can go)
The issue Bears have is we have a Green Likely to turn Blue at the top recovering the Big Red from 101121 and if it closes that way we can actually, really, unbelievably, ridiculously, genuinely be on the way to £90. Although $84.45 is a more realistic unrealistic target.
Praying for it to turn purple and take us down. But until we see purple or They realise some more of their short in This Giant Red Vector candle
we are in long scalps with our targets all the lines associated to That Red Vector candle from 101121.
Look out for a drop though and have sell stops ready at all times
Good luck guys!
This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt
Exxon -57% in 77 days and now BULL MARKET?Thanks for viewing.
- Exxon lost 57% in 77 days and has since bounced strongly - so are we in a new bull-market?
I would give my answer as a resounding no. Why?
- Mostly because crude oil is at 30 year lows which renders all upstream activities drastically unprofitable - how unprofitable? Some estimates of Exxon's break even price per barrel are over $70 a barrel ($74 in this article; www.theguardian.com). So each barrel produced, is produced at a significant loss. It would be far more profitable to buy crude on world markets and stop all exploration or production. This would probably not be a long-term solution, but it is being considered instead of locking in a $60 plus loss per barrel.
- It seems that at these crude prices that Exxon may even need to write down the value of all exploration and production assets to, or close to, zero. This happened recently for unprofitable shale oil producers - all their equipment was specialised, involved in a now universally unprofitable industry, with few buyers, and would have cost more to transport than would be gained from any sale - so when reality struck, it struck hard.
- If suddenly forced to re-value oil reserves they would have a negative value as the oil would cost far more to extract than to leave in the ground. The option to "just stop extraction" isn't there in some cases - as capping a well may damage the resource and incur significant future expense to re-open.
- This is a situation similar to that faced by European (and soon American) Banks due to negative interest rates; They now have liabilities on both sides of the balance sheet. The liabilities remain liabilities, but what were once assets are now cash-flow negative. Pretty hard to make money like that.
- What hope is there? Oil prices may rise, but not in 2020 I feel. So some pain will need to be incurred.
- The Fed is acting as buyer of last resort picking up corporate debt at 100 cents on the dollar with no regard to the credit-worthiness of the issuer. Although, they are not targeting individual Companies yet and Oil and Gas businesses continue to announce bankruptcy.
- The consumer (downstream) activities may still be profitable, although the overall revenue should be expected to be down.
I read two forecasts for EPS to be reported tomorrow. $0.04 from Investing.com and a consensus expectation of $0.02 from another site that had a view that prices would rise 10%. If you are bullish on earnings like that, I don't see how.
Anyway, let's see what happens. Protect those funds (I see prices below $23 before the end of '20).
The crude broke the upward resistanceThe price of crude broke and confirmed the upward break of the resistance area between the low area identified by the two EMA 20 and 200 daily periods. Two EMAs have crossed upwards, at about $ 59.20, and the high zone, where finds at 61.60 $ the 23.6% of the Fibonacci retracement.
From resistance to support
Technically all these resistances have become key supports, if they were violated to the downside, would resume the downtrend that began in October last year. At this moment, however, the trend seems to be at least long in the short term. The next target for crude oil should coincide with the static resistance at 66.10 dollars per barrel. From the current price, to the resistance just mentioned, there is only a minor level that could hinder this uptrend, the secondary resistance placed at $ 63.45. In any case, for now, it seems more likely that it will continue for the 66 $ rather than retrace it back into the 59/58 $ area.
Fundamental view
On a fundamental level, the data on inventories continue to not improve, with important quantities still kept in storage because of the low demand. Production shows no sign of stopping. Despite this, the price of oil continues to rise. If it reaches 66 dollars per barrel, we will evaluate the possibility of entering short and keeping the position in the portfolio for a prolonged period.
Crude oil Pull back possible after selloffAs per Weekly Chart Crude oil took support around $50 where from where it took breakout in the month of July. If crude oil sustain above this level can bounce back up to $55.
As after sharp selloff momentum indicator like RSI also moved to over sold region.Closing below $50 can open new downside.
Prices for Brent crude oil rallied at 2% on Tuesday tradesPrices for Brent rose sharply against the background of political tension. There was an aggravation of relations between Iran and the head of the White House, Donald Trump, who threatens to terminate the nuclear deal. They put considerable pressure on the market and quotes, as it can reduce the volume of daily world oil production by 600 thousand barrels per day.
Also today in the United States comes a weekly report on crude oil reserves, which due to the increase in the number of drillings can deploy quotes. Therefore, based on these facts and the fact that the price approached the psychological level of $68 per barrel, we expect the release of prices and the reversal of quotations.
Therefore, we will consider the opportunities to enter the market for short positions and seek for its targets level of $65.00 per barrel. Stop-loss can be set at 68.50
Oil back again on a quarterly dynamic supportAfter touching the $ 51.91 price per barrel, oil has seen liquidations of profits, returning again in 46.50 area.
This price zone is very important, because it meets the dynamic support formed by the beginning of August.
It will be crucial to see how prices react to this key level, especially with the release of data on oil stocks on Wednesday and the announcement of the interest rate.
BRENT UKOIL BBL ADJUSTED IN RUSSIAN RUBLES. ROUBLE BARREL.
Look forward for further upside movement as a result of the 3050-3100 triangle wedge climbing.
By this way the price could reach 4400-4500 levels before spring, 2018.
Based on my last idea even 85-87 levels in USDRUB were good to keep Long hedged by Long in UKOIL from $25-27.