Exclusive Update, Bitcoin And Solving The Bart Move Puzzle As promised i would explain my view on why i assumed today's bear flag was NOT a Bart move.
There is more to is than just these 2 moves, the bigger picture also plays a part, but i won't get into those details because it would make things too complicated.
1: The spread between high and low
2: A drop and quick move above the previous high
3: Difference in buying volume
4: Bull flag and follow through, on the right a failed one
5: Similar move also similar volume
6: What is the difference here?
7: Left is a triangle shape, right is a bear flag shape
1: First of all, number 1 was the most obvious from the start. Don't mean it already said it would not be another Bart move, but it was an obvious difference, as i also mentioned in my
Bitcoin' analysis. On the left it's 150 points and on the right it's 70 points. The one on the left is enough to create liquidations or stops getting hit on a leveraged exchange like
Bitmex' which creates fuel to do what they want.
2: A second big clue is number 2, a quick drop and a big move up just as fast and went even above the high of the previous few candles.
3: The high buying volume on number 2, most probably even just bots who are programmed to buy within a certain price range. The high volume shows the order book was filled with
sell orders, so perfect opportunity to get a big amount of long positions in.
4: During this drop and bounce up, we can see a small bull flag on the left with follow through reaching the target of that bull flag. First though would be, hmmmm this is a bullish
sign. That is true as well, but look at the one on the right, what do you see? We see similar buying volume but no follow through in price? This i want you to answer yourself in the
comment section.
5: Explained at point 4
6: Here is where we continued to drop today and bounced up again at the Bart move on the left. This one is not easy to judge, there is a difference in volume here but not significant.
On the right it obviously just continued to drop while on the left there was support at that low.
7: The whole pattern on the left has the shape of a triangle while on the right it was simply a bear flag.
The orange part was an extra bonus, does not have much to do with the Bart pattern.
Now who ever these people are, if it's on entity or simply just several traders who use the similar bots, i don't know. But to make it easy, i always look at the market as if it's me against one big whale. Now the blue circles, you have to see those as if the bots are eating up all the sell orders on the way until a maximum level. Now if their bags or not filled up enough, they simply stop the price there with sell orders or simply just sell walls, unless the rest of the market pushes the price down. So they try to eat up all the sell orders as fast as they can before someone else does it and hit the break at a certain point. Just think of it in that way, makes it easier to comprehend/visualize.
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Current Bitcoin analysis:
Bart
BTCUSD 15 min/4H charts (10/31/2018)Good morning, traders. My Internet appears to be stable this morning so far (still waiting on the tech) so I will be attempting to live stream at 10 a.m. CST per my usual schedule. Price has continued to tighten the range it has been trading in for the past two days creating a symmetrical triangle. As these patterns have no bias, traders should be ready for a move up or down which is likely coming by this afternoon unless price just moves sideways out of the triangle and continues to range. Based on the size of the triangle, a move up should initially target the 15 minute R3 pivot around $6341-$6367 and put price back into the blue 4H TR. A move down should target the S3 pivot around $6194. The triangle structure, itself, is not ideal as price has spent most of its time in the middle of it rather than fully moving between the resistance and support. This is why I mentioned that price could just continue moving sideways out of it rather than exploding up or down. Overall, volume is muted but if we zoom in we can see that it has begun rising over the past 24 hours
The 15 minute OBV started rising a few hours ago and is working its way to the top of the descending channel it has been in since Monday morning. A breach to the upside would be bullish on this TF and may signal a larger move up on the larger TFs. MACD recently broke to the upside of its histogram's symmetrical triangle and RSI is bullish at 53.6. The 4H OBV is currently breaking bullishly out of its own descending wedge, MACD is about to cross bullishly over the signal line, and RSI is sitting just above oversold at 32.7 after having fallen into it. While there are never any guarantees in trading, these things together do appear to be signalling an impending move up. Howevever, this 4H candle has only just begun so there is a lot of opportunity for all these signals to revert to bearish. The 4H candle must close higher to set bullishness in motion for the near-term at least.
Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
BTCUSD 15 min/4H charts (10/30/2018)Good morning, traders. I am still dealing with technical issues with our Internet service provider this morning and will most likely not be able to stream until the tech gets here later this week. I will attempt to record and upload daily videos if possible until it is fixed. After yesterday's move, price has continued doing what it has done best for the past few months - range. As mentioned yesterday, we are watching volume and price action as an indication of where price may head in the near-term. Ultimately, price has found support on the 4H S3 pivot and resistance at the S2 pivot. While volume remains low, we can see that it is increasing, but OBV, specifically, isn't convincing at this time. What is noticeable is that the drop bounced off the July triangle's descending resistance-turned-support line. We can also see that the 4H RSI has continued to remain oversold for more than 24 hours. Shorts are up only slightly now, compared to where they were prior to yesterday's move, which is a testament to the amount of supply that has been removed from the market. Remember, the goal during accumulation is to remove as much loose supply as possible. This means creating situations that cause the weakest hands to sell what they are holding into the hands of the C.O. In doing this, the C.O. ensures that price will move up with as little resistance as possible when the time comes for price to emerge from the corrective cycle. This is especially necessary with the length of time this market has been correcting. All upward movement is met with cries of "sucker's rally" and will most likely continue as such until price breaches the February high at around $11,780. As most retail traders are more concerned with buying the absolute lowest price rather than perfecting their risk management, this gives the larger picture trader/investor the opportunity to get in before the FOMO kicks in.
Overall, price remains within the larger two-month-old black TR between $6095 and $6587. Once price moves through the resistance or support of that TR, I will evaluate the movement to decide whether I will enter at that time. Until then, all this little movement is nothing more than noise with a risk that is far too great in exchange for any reward for me.
For traders interested in looking at smaller TFs, it would likely be best to just concentrate on the noted local 4H pivots. As mentioned above, price is bouncing between the S2 and S3 pivots. A break in either direction should be an indication that price will be continuing in that direction. However, until price actually breaches and closes above the blue pivot, currently sitting at $6411, all movement should be considered suspect. Those desiring to zoom in even more should take note of the blue 15 minute pivot sitting near the top of that local TR at $6298. As with the larger TF, a breach of this pivot from below, and close above, is considered bullish. This would set up a target of the R1 pivot at $6388 which almost lines up perfectly with the previous period's S1 pivot. This indicates that a bullish breach and close above it would be significant and continued upward movement should be expected with that level providing stronger support.
Remember, you can always click on the "share" button in the lower right hand of the screen, under the chart, and then click on "Make it mine" from the popup menu in order to get a live version of the chart that you can explore on your own.
Inverted bart brings btc back above 1 day 50MA(buy/sell line)The inverted bart I was predicting off the last bear flag has finally occurred. Seeing as how we ahve retested the 1 day 50ma a couple times now since breaking above it and have found solidified support there I predict it will continue to stay bullish. R.I.P. Tone Vays 5x short
HaHa, We will wreck you.The current market volatility is beyond my limits and I decided to stay away from it and have some fun.
Yesterday we saw a crazy price action in BTC market and I kicked out of my trades on Binance.
In that time, I kept my eyes on order book and I saw some good stuff there.
Just look at this screen shot:
i.imgur.com
Whales sitting down there to buy cheap Bitcoin.
The 6050, 6000 and 5900 are strong support lines and I don't think BTC go less than 5900 or 5700.
They like to buy cheap but not too cheap. They don't like to destroy the market.
I will not go into any new trade till BTC go down enough or pass through all resistances.
4hr candle breakdown from bull flag/bart formation target=6130breaking down and barting from the current bull flag at this point is interesting because the drop target should take us just above the top trendline of the weekly descending wedge pattern. Hopefully this means that trendline will maintain support and then bounce the price action back upward...if so we will then have a higher low on the 4hr to follow our the higher high. It could of course continue to dip below that and back into the descending triangle but $6130 is a smart place to bu back in until we see whether or not it will continue to head downward..I probably wouldn't sell again until we achieved a lower low.
6600 before going to hell? Bart patterns and such a manipulation is going on, we may bounce back a bit and then go straight forward to 6600. In previous analysis we did not hit the support levels which was 30% chance, but going above 6360 as i mentioned with 6400 breakout (My sl tooked) This may change a game for a short time only.. Or we may see another bart thing on the 6600 ? I could wait for a little bounce back to long 6380 level with even closer stop loss like 6365 with bigger laverage .
Will the bart end soon? We touched the support levels i mentioned before and it bounced back bit, but we still cant hit the 6400 POC. I think the 6360 might be good entry for short and the redline is stop loss i will look for my short ( if we gonna break the 6400) . I think 70:30 we may touch the 6360 above soon and 30:70 we go down back to support levels at 6160-80 without touching the 6350 above . If the 6360 hits without stop loss trigger i may look for 1. PT at 6260 level and second one on 6200 level. After first PT i trail my stop loss to 6280 levels. What do you think are we gonna break the 6400 or stay bouncing around here for longer?
Short Squeeze Fractal PlayThis idea comes from observing some fractal patterns on the 30m chart.
In the first cycle of the pattern, short interest climbs to 33.9k, and a short squeeze causes shorts to drop by 5.8% to 31.9k.
The pattern then repeats itself with short interest climbing to an "ATH" of 39.9k, and a short squeeze causes shorts to drop by 10.6% from 39.9k to 35.6k.
It appears we are once again primed to repeat this cycle, as short interest rapidly approaches the "ATH" of 39.9k, currently just below 39k.
As long as people keep piling into the short trade, the manipulators-in-chief will likely continue to squeeze the heck out of us, as evidenced by the increased frequency of BART patterns.
As an aside, it may be worthwhile questioning the role Bitmex may be playing in all of this, especially with their high-leverage derivatives trade business. Some traders have noticed a pattern with the recent Bitmex maintenance outage during the last short squeeze. Bitmex went off-line just as the price began to shoot up. This certainly prevented some shorts from covering, or from traders initiating leveraged longs. When Bitmex came back online, the price briefly shot up to $7150 only on Bitmex, then rapidly dropped. Coincidence? Perhaps.
In any case, these markets are heavily and easily manipulated. Don't risk more than you can afford to lose, because chances are high you will, especially if you are trading with leverage.
Short-term target: $6.8k-$7k