BTC/USD - Rally Base Rally - What's Next?I do believe we are going to see some more upside here over the next week or so, but believe we are going to see a slight pull back and then higher price action. The red and blue areas indicate the path of BTC, I believe will play out.
Price action painted a sharp move up and out (RALLY) of a weekly/daily demand zone. Then ranged (BASE) for about a day just under a the weekly .786. Moving sharply from this zone to form a small base. I believe price action will rally again to 9150-9300 area, then pull back to previous smaller base or back to the weekly .786 before resuming a stronger run up.
Let me know your thoughts.
BASE
Taking Another Stab at RetailersRetailers have been good to me over the last year and a half. It shouldn't come as a surprise that I've found solace in the retail space given my investment style. I like to find best of breeds in the most beaten down industries in the markets. BGFV is one of those. The company has increased nearly all margins over the last three years while increasing ROA, ROE, and ROC.
Detailed post will be coming on the blog this week.
I entered a starting position as price seemed to hold support at this current level. Will be looking to add as long as price advances my way.
As always, let me know if you disagree and let me know what you think I'm not seeing.
Always trying to improve,
Brandon
Bitcoin: BTCUSD Trying to build base: Next buy and sell pointsBitcoin BTCUSD Next Buy and Sell Points
The weekend rally ran out of impetus by Sunday night with no impetus still from far East. Since then Bitcoin has zig-zagged
back down in a continuation pattern, finding support from just above fixed and dynamic support junction at 10772 on
Bitstamp chart and bouncing back up to test the parallel above it before recoiling once more. Whilst this price action is
therefore still providing a great space for day traders to trade within the parallels, it's not much help to swing traders as yet.
But the near term double bottom and the dynamic support below price at 10772 has turned Bitcoin neutral in the very
near term and given succour to the bulls for now, creating the little rally we've just seen. The bears are fighting back from
10987-11000 range and whilst they can hold price under here they remain in control still. Aggressive bears continue to sell
from tests of the upper parallel and aggressive bulls buy from tests of support just above 10772, creating this stale-mate
within this range for all but day traders right now.
Next Buy and Sell set-ups for Swing/larger Trades:
Bull case: Bitcoin is trying to base out here and 10772 is best place to do it from. If so it will bounce from 10875 first
support and from 10772 at lowest now and then break above
10987-11000 and hold on any retest once broken above...that price action will flip Bitcoin back to positive and we can look
to buy with stops below 10950/the parallel once broken.
Bear Case: (beginning to lose it, especially if 10875 holds now)
Bitcoin has to break below 10772 by 20 points or more to trigger a short back to 10547 initially, then to 10262 and then
to 9912 in all likelhood.
IOTA: IOTUSD Trying to base here - buy points todayIOTA IOTUSD Update Trying to base here - Buy points
Within minutes of publication the little dynamic support line that had held upyesterday's rally was broken, flipping IOTA
from positive back to negative on a dime. Stops for longs were running up under the parallel as price moved north. Well it
was good whilst it lasted but once that little dynamic was lost we can see the damage done. That stop was at around 4598
when the parallel was finally lost, so by using this method of exit on longs the vast majority of the rally was locked in and
no real damage has been done. We live to fight again from lower levels now...
Iota is now trying to base out at 3037 by look of chart but is likely to have a problem at the tangled mass of resistance just
above here, where fixed and dynamics meet...no way do we get long again here until that has been beaten through...it
has to get back above the upper parallel, now around 3400 and survive any retst of that parallel from above once broken
to trigger next long from here. Maybe we will get a better entry long from lower down still...need to watch this and look
for potential double bottom/loss of downside momentum at 3037 for fist clue we have a low forming now...if it fails here
we stand back looking to see if 2.865 offers support - if not it means 2.172 is the next level to look for a buying opprtunity.
So we are left with 4 potential entry points here: at 3400 ish on a break of the upper parallel with stops kept under the
parallel by 50 points or more. Or at a potential yet-to-be-decided double bottom at 3037
And should this fail to hold from 2.865 or at lowest from 2.172 if we see it.
That's a little complicated but covers the levels. The easiest will be the break above the upper parallel. It should attract
quite a lot of buyers as well as shorts closing down/buying back too. watch it and follow when the signal is given on the
chart. Use stops though. Yesterday should have taught you that by now. Lesson learned.
DXY Dollar Index Trying to Base hereDXY Dollar Index Update Near Term Neutral but Dollar Trying to Base
DXY did come off from where it was meant to last week but
has put up more than just a fight so far in the 92.74-92.50
range. The fight back was to be expected, but it's doing
better than envisaged so far here - and these conclicting
signals urge caution now ...no interest in getting involved in a
battle of whipsaw here but will look to back the winner again
here when one emerges...DXY has gapped up today, double
bottomed and left a pin bar lying around in the space
between the two blue lines of fixed support shown on
chart...bullish signals. But it's still trapped within the
parallels which are trying to force price lower. Something has
to give here soon. ...A break above the upper parallel would
be the next bullish signal from DXY - look to get long DXY on the
next retest of the parallel from above, once broken to upside,
and get long USDEUR and short Gold on this development too.
On downside DXY has to stay under the upper parallel for the
bears to keep control from here - then they have to force DXY
down to fill the gap today at 92.89 and then push it below
92.55 again for DXY to turn negative again from here. As it
stands the bears are beginning to lose this battle, not enough
fire-power to force DXY lower from here by the look of the chart.
Early hours of this battle, still, but increasingly the bulls are
beginning to wrest back control here. Confimation will come
when the upper parallel is broken and survives the next retest.
At that point we look to short gold (if signals there are not
already given) and get long USDEUR.
USDJPY - Bear trap long before more down?USDJPY came under some pressure on Friday. There may be more downside, but right now bears should beware. just below the swing low around 111.500 we have a spike base/demand zone. if we break below this level and demand is still there + shorts start taking some profits, we may get a nice pop higher. As always, will wait for price action after the break. A touch of the 200% extension and an hourly close back above the 111.500 area along with that area once again providing support will have me checking the 5min/1min charts for some long scalps before re-assessing.
I like to look for situations that can potentially catch people out ( like Bear Traps/Bull traps ). When this happens, the flow can change quickly and nice, fast moves can happen.
I like to assess hourly charts for key zones like this, and then trade the shorter time frames to exploit the flow.
BTCUSD vision, advicdes, strategies.Hello:)
First i`ll say few words about situation right now. We are in the previous resistance, we didnt brake it, we made some divergence on indicators, but watch out: same situation was on the last week (circled and pointed on macd). So, if they are similar, so black arrow shows the possible movement. Nobody can say how it will behave itself, but i believe resistance will not be broken. How to trade now? i`ll say it further id the educational part that i promised!:)
Today i want to give you some useful info about how we can trade in such situation.
First, i want to say about one thing, that should be never been forgotten: support and resistance. Yes, simple. Very simple. But most of traders belive that their succes depends on confusingly difficult instruments. And that is not true.(same with triangles, but tsss :D, P.s explain later)
Look on the grafic, and for example at the zones that i marked yellow. They shows really good how it works. It doesnt matter what kind of movement do we have, up or down: previous levels, where the prices stoped will surely affect following picture: prices will bounce around them.
This was said to realize one thing: indicators dont work on their own, they just help us to make a decision and sometimes they can tell us about impulse, that rises an opportunity to break present levels.
So, what is important about trading whith indicators? I noticed some really strong signs, that tells about turn of price: 1. Divergence should be formed in with free indexes: AO columns, MACD columns and MACD grafical constituent. This is the stongest sign of the turn. Example
2. Volume decreasing, that means that bulls/bears are not interested in buy/sell and they are losing their strength. But dont use small timeframes when you want to measure volume. My experience says that for the intraday 1-4 hours (in comparrison) are the best.
3. Usually it takes 2-4 waves to form strong enough divergence to make a turn.
Also, there are some thin moment in indicators analasing. Sometimes it can be useful to analyse the single columns in macd and ao. Take some last min/max on graphic and watch the indexes on macd/ao. It can help to track some minor movements like this, but this sign is not strong enough to trust it much, but you can use it placing stoploss very near to your order.
And the final part for today is the thing, that i realised about 20 hours ago:) Did you see on youtube that succesful traders usualy have 2-4 monitors? Turned out that it`s not just farce:))) I have not very good tradition: i usually miss some good movements:) And i realized the stupid reason of it: it`s very difficult to observe chart from the one window, where you always switch timeframes. This way you cant summarise compare indexes well or summarazi them, because of using different graphic scale and because indicators show the situation in different ways. I prefer 15 min timeframe for the intraday, but the general situation on the market is the most important thing, and when i cocentrate on 15 mins i cant objectively evaluate the situation. And the exit is simple too: create more windows for every timeframe:) For one monitor the most comfortable variation is the next: two vertical windows, one for the 30 mins till 2 h timeframes to switch, and second for the 3min-15min timeframes to switch. First one helps us see the general conjuncture, second one helps us to make an accurate order. That is because, as i said above, different timeframes shows different indexes for the indicators. Big timeframes helps to find the movement with good amplitude, small timeframes helps to take an accurate swim in this flow.
KSHB off bottomRecent news has led to an increase in volume off a higher low. Has potential to break 1.94, then 2. Enter below 1.94, risk under newly formed "base," approx 1.80. Target 2.15+. Volume isn't crazy high relatively, but with a breakout it could begin a parabolic move. I could be too early, but I'm willing to take the small risk.
Weed stocks could get a boost very soon with new voting in November and rollouts from last year's voting results initiating in November and launching January 1, 2018. Start watching closely for volume increases.
$rl short weak bouncehigher time frame shows defined downtrend pulling back after strong impulse move
mid time frame shows uptrend weakening and mature looking for a breakdown with negative momentum and negative volume pressure
lower time frame is working bottom of base- worth monitoring for possible false breakdown and continuing consolidation
breakdown of support level of 71.3x area to first target of 70.7x area and next level to 69.8x area
$mchp breakout lookout higher time frame showing change in market structure after pulling back and in defined uptrend
mid time frame shows rising moving average and positive market structure change forming a base before possible breakout
lower time frame is in alignment with higher time frames with positive momentum and volume
first target is resistance of 83.0x area and next level to 84.0x area
SYNT found base Outsourcing will still be needed, even with new president. I got now think that Syntel found its base and can go higher.
#UNICREDIT - NEXT EUROPEAN BANK WITH A BREAKOUTUnicredit is the next European Bank to stage an impressive base breakout. EU Banks are at a turning point, outperforming, and have a lot of catch-up to do. Technicals look great. Unicredit appears to move into a vacuum and I see immediate upside into 2.75/.77
I'm a chart analyst, not a fundamental analyst, but here are a few thoughts what could drive EU Banks outperformance. Fundamentals continue to look awful, however there are a few tailwinds from:
- bank CEO acknowledging structural weaknesses (DBK CEO y'day)
- serious consolidation talks
- FED rate hikes
CMG Technical Base With Strong Follow-Up On FridayWe stick to our view, expressed on Thursday, when CMG cleared a small base and the 50day moving average at $405. I see next bigger resistance at $443, where the stock could clear an even bigger base. We are observing long-term reversal action with potentially more upside. Stay tuned!
VRX: Interesting long setupVRX is offering a good buy opportunity for next week, after taking off from a sizeable accumulation base.
We can buy signs of strength (a new high, or the day turning up above the previous close).
We can also look into buying on retracement to support at 34.92. Keep stops below 33.35 and if we open with a considerable gap up, cancel the orders and stand aside.
Targets on chart: 43.46 and 50.81.
If interested in my trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
EUR/USD 240 Divergence with a Hammer at a Demand ZoneThere is some divergence on the 240 min chart between price and the RSI. Price rejected the Drop-Base-Rally around 1.0840's. I'm looking to get long at the 50% retracement of the Hammer candle wick at 1.0847 (check your data.) My stops will be just below the swing low at around 1.0830. I have a few targets at each of the swing highs (1.0885, 1.0943, and 1.1060) Good luck trading.
The Fresh Market - TFM - Back to the Bargain Bin - BuyHere is my chart from 9 months ago when TFM was in the low $30's prior to the run up over $40. I only added that TFM is the cheapest it has been so far. It is consistently profitable and total revenues continue to grind ahead.
You want to buy these quality stocks when others are selling and when they represent great value.
It's time again to back up the truck and load up on some TFM shares and look for a 5%-10% gain over the next 3-6 months. If it gets cheaper still, I will keep adding to the position.
Stay tuned.
Tim 31.98 last TFM May 22, 2015 1:42PM EST