Basing
absolute monster if it breaks out !...after almost 2 decades of bottoming process (basing pattern) are you able to hold on for another 4 days (for the month to end and the candle to close/be completed) before acting ?
Taking Another Stab at RetailersRetailers have been good to me over the last year and a half. It shouldn't come as a surprise that I've found solace in the retail space given my investment style. I like to find best of breeds in the most beaten down industries in the markets. BGFV is one of those. The company has increased nearly all margins over the last three years while increasing ROA, ROE, and ROC.
Detailed post will be coming on the blog this week.
I entered a starting position as price seemed to hold support at this current level. Will be looking to add as long as price advances my way.
As always, let me know if you disagree and let me know what you think I'm not seeing.
Always trying to improve,
Brandon
DXY Dollar Index - Basing ActivityDXY Dollar Index
We were looking for DXY to show signs of bottoming prior to
potential reversal to the upside last week. It made a double
bottom/slightly higher low showing a loss of downside
momentum, the first signal needed to show a change is in the
air. Some may remember the way that Gold shifted parallels
just as DXY is now doing prior it bottoming out in mid
December...now we have the same behaviour being displayed
on DXY chart. Today, DXY is now pushing the upper parallel
with near term resistance at 89.30 - it's in a small
continuation pattern running under the parallel which at some
point soon is likely to pop to the upside - but so far we have
no great weight of evidence that DXY is doing much other
than consolidating in a 120 pip range at current levels. We do
have a double bottom which has resulted in range trading so
far, but no higher high to signal a clear reversal as yet. Dollar
bulls have to take DXY through the parallel and then above
the lines of resistance at 89.30 and at 89.51 and finally above
89.65 to really start attracting other buyers - but until they
can achieve this DXY is more likely to range trade, with some
big green candles more likely to emerge now than big reds,
and the price action after that green candle being more gentle
consolidation prior to the next green candle emerging. So
small bursts of upward pressure followed by mild but longer
lasting consolidation - dull, grinding price action in near term
but most likely with an upward bias. Still prefer to buy dips
here though not aggressively so yet.
Need to see 89.65 broken above and held to turn aggressively
bullish of DXY looking for 90.19 initially and then, after
consolidating, to 90.99 and then to the 91.80-91-90 range.
On the downside, DXY has to break below key support at
88.43 to turn negative again in near term down to 87.70
where it becomes a buy again on any such weakness.
Long on GOLD if...My favorite trading pattern is to buy breakouts or breakdowns after a base (high base/low base). Gold is in that ideal pattern that I look for, nothing fancy here. Price has risen (like almost everything else) since the US election in November. Unlike equities though, volume hasn't deteriorated as we move higher, though it hasn't risen much either.
We are looking to take long positions after a move above the recent swing high with buy stops above 1244.71 area and buys on the pullback after. There should be enough volume around this inflection point to fill all initial orders we need on this first entry of our potentially bigger position.
This is the initial entry we are looking to take in gold and if it continues we will be looking to add to our positions over time.
The 1245 area is the confirmation to start buying, until then no entries have been or will be made.
