CAD basket trading the news 08:30 CAD GDP (MoM) (Jun)A basket forex trade is an order to buy or sell a group of currency pairs simultaneously with the intention of betting on the potential of one single currency. Basket trading is essential for institutional investors and investment funds who wish to hold a diversity of currencies without holding negative correlated positions in the market. By using a Basket Trading methodology you can focus your brains on predicting and assessing the technical and fundamental feasibility of a single currency while still hedging risk by diversifying with all major currency pairs.
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Basket
Dollar Basked head and shoulders.Dollar Basked head and shoulders. , also see my other post (30 min chart)
USD to fall across the board ?The Basket is looking quite full with lots of eggs in it. Are you short on the $...
Can you apply portfolio theory to forex market?Think of forex (or cryptocurrencies) trading as a creating a portfolio (a "basket" of currencies) and maintaining its good structure by planned rebalancing. It also allows to reduce net risk (diversification! Markowitz like it!). E.g. now I have five positions - pairs with absolutely different currency symbols. Some trades are lossy, some are profitable. All you need in this situation is to manage active positions properly and control risk.
Relative yield spread of currencies of usd-basket VS the usdThis line charts gives an idea how a currencies 10yr yield develop, relatively, vs the usd 10 yr yield. This goes only back to 2012-ish since no earlier data was available via the tickerdata. Trying to acquire new ticker data so we can make it complete up until the 90's. It should provide a clue where the USD is going short/medium term. Considering the output of this graph we can say that we are bullish usd with a possible target of at least 95 when rate hike happens next wednesday. Also its likely we will put a new 6-year high on the t-note when next ratehike happens. This is a major event.
NZD, CAD, AUD / JPY Still could Drop if it Bounces off this LineMoney floods against the Grain. NZD JPY, CAD JPY, and AUD JPY's could all drop at any moment now.
My Strategy is basically a basket trade shorting /JPY pairs while they are in larger time frame downward trends; while referencing other charts that are strongly correlated. AUD CAD, GBP JPY, are positively correlated to the AUD JPY at about 81% and 92% respectively. EUR AUD, USD CAD are negatively correlated with CAD JPY at -95% and -83% respectively. Of course, all of the /JPY's have a strong positive correlation, but I personally believe that AUD, CAD and NZD to be the most correlated.
I am Shorting CAD JPY, AUD JPY and NZD JPY. Of which, the NZD JPY has been the most profitable for me. It is also the closest to the end of its parade at 75.6. I do believe there is more drop left in these wonderful pairs. At this moment in time, I believe that all three of these pairs still are able to drop and drop hard when they do. Because of this I try not to scalp these pairs as their drops could happen very suddenly.
Currently (11/21 5:30), CAD JPY and AUD JPY are at a bit of triangle compression (reference a 15 min chart to see this) after breaking through strong hourly resistance levels.
Once, one of these three show significant downward movement expect all three of them to fall together. At that point, I recommend you to Sell down to their support levels. If they break through their support, please sell further shares down to their previous hourly supports.
So what again are we watching for on these three pairs? The triangle break outs that are soon to happen on AUD JPY, and CAD JPY on the 15 min chart. Also, we are watching what happens to the NZD JPY when it reaches that mid level resistance line within its established hourly channel (ref posted chart).
Please feel free to ask any questions
Euro index: Weekly uptrendThis Euro index gives us a good idea of what to expect in the coming weeks.
After this week, we will probably confirm a weekly uptrend signal, which should last for at least 18 daily bars, or maybe 6 weeks, and reach the targets in the chart.
I'm long multiple Euro pairs, and will continue to manage the positions and scale in on every opportunity the daily and 4h charts present.
Potentially a very profitable endeavor.
It's great to see how time at mode timed the EXACT reversal date, and a very close price level for it.
Major props to Tim West!
Good luck,
Ivan.