NZDUSD on a 3-day winning streakThe US will release three high-impact economic indicators during the week's last session, bringing high volatility to USD pairs, particularly against other major FX currencies.
In the morning, the US will announce Retail Sales YoY for September; they are expected to drop from a previous 9.1% to 8%. Retail Sales MoM is also expected to fall; the analyst's consensus is at 0.2%; a figure higher than anticipated will bring higher value to the USD as it suggests that economic activity is solid. However, this week we have seen other indicators show that the US economy might be finally slowing down.
The US will also release Michigan Consumer Sentiment. The expert consensus is a slight increase from 58.6 to 59; a higher-than-expected figure will strengthen the USD exchange rate.
The NZD is gaining ground over the USD; the pair is on a three-day winning streak but continues to be on a general downtrend as the price is trading below the short and long-term moving averages.
The relative strength index is at 38%, which will allow the pair to continue moving upwards before entering an overbought status, a lot will depend on the results of the scheduled high-impact economic indicators, but based on pure technical analysis, the pair is likely to continue climbing.
The Bollinger bands are wide enough to expect high volatility in the short term; still, they are starting to shrink, suggesting that the pair might enter a consolidation period in the medium term. The bands are moving downwards, strengthening the sell signals in the short term.
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USDCNH is on a 6-day winning streakThe US will release a series of high-impact economic indicators related to inflation and the labor market during the trading session, which will bring high volatility to major Forex pairs.
The US will release: Consumer Price Index, which is expected to increase from 296.171 to 296.43; a higher figure will be positive for the USD as it suggests high economic activity. They will also release the Inflation Rate YoY, which is expected to drop from 8.3% to 8.1%; higher inflation will be bullish for the USD but will negatively impact the US Stock market.
The US Initial Jobless Claims indicator is expected to increase from 219K to 225K for the first week of October, suggesting that the labor market is finally giving in; however, we have seen surprisingly good numbers for the labor market in recent weeks.
Later in the trading session, China will release the Inflation Rate YoY, which is expected to increase from 2.5% to 2.8%; a higher rate will be positive for the Yuan exchange rate against other currencies.
China will also release the Balance of Trade for September; analysts anticipate an increase from $79.39B to $81B. China is a prominent exporter and has maintained a surplus since 1995; a higher figure than expected will be positive for the Yuan.
USDCNH is on a six-day winning streak; the general trend continues to be upward as the pair is currently trading above the short and long-term moving averages. Our parabolic S A R indicator strengthens the long signals.
The Bollinger bands are still wide and moving upwards, which suggests there will be high volatility and that the pair will continue moving upwards; however, the bands are starting to shrink, which indicates that the pair might enter a consolidation phase in the medium term.
The relative strength index is at 64%, allowing the pair to continue climbing a bit before entering an overbought status. If this happens, there might be a temporary change in the market sentiment.
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GBPUSD could test support at $1.0812
The pound is on a four-day losing streak against the USD, and the general trend is downwards once again; the pair is losing the gains it made during the previous weeks. The price trades below the short and long-term moving averages, suggesting that the price could sink further down.
The Bollinger bands are wide, allowing high volatility in the short term; however, the upper band is starting to shrink, suggesting that the price could begin a consolidation phase in the medium term.
The relative strength index is currently at 41%, which will allow the pair to continue falling in the upcoming sessions; we could expect a short-term sentiment change once it gets closer to 30%.
The support level on our 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $1.0812 could be tested in the upcoming sessions.
Upcoming Events
The UK will release the Unemployment Rate economic indicator in the next trading session; it is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%; a figure higher than expected will be bearish for the GBPUSD pair as it suggests economic deacceleration.
Later in the day, the UK will also release Claimant Count Change, which gauges the number of people looking for unemployment benefits. Experts anticipate an increase from 6.3K to 10K this month. A higher figure will hurt the British pound against other currencies.
Later in the week, the UK will also release Gross Domestic Product MoM and Goods Tarde Balance, which will significantly impact the GBPUSD exchange rate.
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AUDUSD on the moveAUDUSD lost 0.74% in the last trading sessions of the week, and it's on a four-day losing streak; the USD strengthened after the 10-year treasury yield climbed to 3.88%. The pair continues on a downward trend, and the price broke the support level at $0.63633, reaching a new low in over two years.
The Bollinger bands are wide and moving downwards, suggesting that there will be high volatility and that price will continue to fall in the upcoming trading sessions.
The RSI is about to enter the oversold status, which could change the market sentiment; fundamental news will be key to determining if the AUDUSD pair will continue moving downwards in the short term.
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NZDUSD +1.37%NZDUSD is resuming the downtrend despite weak results from the US Initial Jobless Claims; the pair could find support at $0.55653. RSI is close to entering an oversold status which could change the market sentiment. Bollinger bands are wide and moving down, strengthening the short signals.
The US dollar strengthened after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated that the Fed is far from loosening the monetary policy. Hawkish remarks from other Fed officials also suggest that the rate hikes will continue during 2023, strengthening the USD during the trading session.
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GBPUSD -1.31%
GBPUSD lost ground after a six-day winning streak; the USD regained strength with the release of S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which showed a better performance than the previous month, strengthening the USD.
The pair is still on a downtrend as the long-term moving average is above the current price; the pair found strong resistance at $1.14954. If the support level on the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.13235 is broken, we expect the downtrend to resume. Volatility will be high in the short term.
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EURUSD +1.70%
The euro is gaining ground against the USD, and it is up 3.95% in the last five trading sessions. The pair is getting close to reaching parity, currently at 0.99831. High-impact economic indicators suggest that the US economy is finally slowing down.
The US released ISM Manufacturing PMI in the previous session; the result came short of expectations, which hurt the USD. This morning the US also announced JOLT Job Openings for August, which came out at 10.053M. Experts anticipated a higher figure by 772K.
The labor market has been solid in the US in the last few months; however, there has been a notable economic deacceleration in the previous few days. This is an important week for the USD as they will announce S&P Global Services PMI and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI tomorrow, Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, and Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday. The last two indicators will gauge the strength of the US labor market in the previous month.
Tomorrow, the Euro Area will release S&P Global Services PMI; the previous figure was 49.8, and experts anticipate a drop for September; the analyst consensus is 48.9, which suggests industry contraction, which could benefit the USD.
Later this week, the Euro Area will also release other high-impact economic indicators. Retail Sales MoM are expected to fall from -0.3% to -0.4%, while the Retail Sales YoY are expected to have a steeper decline from -0.9% to -1.7%, likely affecting the EURUSD exchange rate.
The general trend is currently upwards as the price is now above the short and long-term moving averages; the uptrend is likely to continue if the fundamental news releases are unfavorable for the US labor market.
The Bollinger bands are wide and starting to move upwards, suggesting that volatility will continue to be high and that the price will likely move upwards in the short term. The resistance at the parity level will be strong to beat from a psychological point of view.
The relative strength index is at 55%, giving the EUR more than enough space to continue climbing before entering an overbought status. Our parabolic SAR indicator suggests that the price will continue to move upwards.
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AUDUSD + 1.83%AUDUSD + 1.83%
The Aussie strengthens against the USD amid the upcoming Reserve Bank Of Australia Interest Rate Decision. The USD lost ground to most major Forex pairs during the session after high-impact economic indicators suggested that the US economy might be slowing down. US manufacturing data showed weak figures, the US Bond Yields dropped, and the Stock market closed with gains. There is still a negative correlation between the US Stock market and the USD exchange rate.
The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for September came out at 50.9, a worse than expected result by 1.3; the consensus was 52.2. This result shows slower growth in the industry; the figure is still above the 50 level, which indicates industry expansion. The US Federal Reserve could ease on the upcoming interest rate decision as we finally see signs of a slowdown in economic growth.
Australia will release important economic indicators later in the day; the Ai Group Manufacturing Index for September is expected to come out at 48.5; the previous figure was 49.3. If the actual result comes out below 50, the market will see it as an indicator of industry contraction, which will be negative for the AUDUSD exchange rate.
AU will also release Buiding Permits MoM and Home Loans MoM; the consensus for these indicators is 5% and -3.5%, respectively, which is better than the previous month's figures, and a better than expected result will be positive for the Aussie.
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NZDUSD -2.15%
The New Zealand Dollar lost the gains it made in the two previous trading sessions against the US dollar. The kiwi gained 1.76% when the US 10-year Treasury Note spiked earlier in the week. After the US released high-impact economic indicators, the NZD lost strength, and the USD is having a solid week against most major currency pairs.
The US released the Personal Spending MoM economic indicator earlier today; the result came out at 0.4%, which is better than the analyst's consensus of 0.2%, strengthening the USD across most major currency pairs. The US also released Personal-Income MoM, and the result came out as experts anticipated at 0.3%, remaining the same as the previous month's figure.
The US Michigan Consumer Sentiment was also released this morning, and the result came out at 58.6, which is short of analysts' expectations of 59.5. The result is worse than expected but slightly better than the previous figure of 58.2. The industry is still within the expansion area as it is above 50, suggesting that economic activity remains elevated.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release an Interest Rate Decision next week; experts agree that the RBNZ will hike the rate by 50 basis points to leave the Interest rate at 3.5%. Annual inflation in New Zealand reached 7.3%, and the RBNZ is expected to continue rising interest rates until inflation drops significantly.
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USDCNH -0.92%
The US dollar is losing ground to some currency pairs after the US 10-year treasury Note spiked in the previous trading session. The Chinese Yuan gained 2.44% after reaching a 14-year high yesterday.
The US released Initial Jobless claims this morning, and the result came out at 193K, a better than the expected figure by 22K; analysts anticipated a 215K. The figure is not only better than expected but also better than the previous release, which strengthened the USD against four of the six major currency pairs.
China will release N B S Non-Manufacturing PMI at an early stage of the new trading session. Analysts expect the figure to come out at 52.8, while the previous was 52.6. We could see a minimal improvement, but it is more important that the figure stays above the 50 level, which indicates industry expansion, the release of this economic indicator will create more volatility in the exchange rate of the Chinese Yuan against other currencies, mainly against the USD.
China will also release N B S Manufacturing PMI, which is expected to come out at 49.6 from a previous 49.4. Although we could see the figure improve slightly, if it stays under 50, market participants will interpret it as an industry contraction and are likely to take action.
The USD Index is 17% up this year, and we see very solid numbers in the labor market despite the Fed's efforts to slow down economic growth. It could be hard to beat the dollar this year. Currently, the US stock market negatively correlates with the US dollar.
The pair continues on a general uptrend as the short and long-term moving averages are still below the current price; the pair is retracing, but after the release of high-impact economic indicators, the dollar could resume the rally.
The Bollinger bands are wide and continue moving upwards, suggesting that volatility will continue to be high and that the pair will likely resume the uptrend. Our Parabolic S A R indicator strengthens the long signals.
The relative strength index is recovering from an overbought status, currently at 62%. We could see the pair pull back closer to the support level at 7.061120 before the uptrend resumes.
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USDCHF -1.61%
The SwissFranc is gaining ground over the US dollar, but we could see the SwissFranc lose ground after the fundamental news release from the US. They are releasing Initial Jobless claims in tomorrow's trading session; the previous week's figure reached 213K, and analysts expect this week's number to increase to 215K. The US has a very solid labor market that has remained unaffected by the Fed's efforts to slow down economic growth; we have been surprised by the US labor market's numbers in recent months.
Switzerland will release high-impact economic indicators on Friday; they will announce Retail Sales MoM, which is expected to increase from -0.5% to 0.6%, while analysts anticipate Retail Sales YoY to decline slightly from a previous figure of 2.6% to 2% in August, this economic indicator is an excellent way to gauge the economic activity in the country.
Later in the day, Switzerland will also release the K O F Leading Indicators, where the K O F Swiss Economic Insitute gauges business leaders' confidence about the economy's performance and their organization's prospects. This indicator is expected to drop from the previous figure of 86.5; expert consensus is at 84.5.
The US will release indicators on Personal Spending MoM, Personall Incomeme MoM, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment on Friday's trading session. These economic indicators will cause turbulence in the markets as they gauge how much people spend on goods and services, how much they make, and how they perceive the future for their financial situation.
Experts anticipate Personal Spending MoM to increase from 0.1% to 0.2%. Personall Income is expected to grow from 0.2% to 0.3%, and Michigan Consumer Sentiment is also expected to increase from 58.2 to 59.5. This is not very good news for the Federal reserve as they continue intensifying the efforts to restore price stability by hiking rates, which is meant to slow down economic activity.
This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.
AUDUSD -0.38%
The Aussie continues losing ground to the USD; the pair is on a three-day losing streak, and it reached a level we had not seen since May 2020. AUDUSD is down 6.75% in the last eleven trading sessions; we could see the pair sink lower with the release of a high-impact economic indicator from AU later in the day.
Australia will announce the Retail Sales MoM for August in the early stage of the new trading session; we expect a drop from the previous figure of 1.3% in July; experts anticipate a 0.4% for August. The decline in retail sales suggests that the economic activity in AU is falling, which will hurt the Australian dollar exchange rate against other currencies, particularly the US dollar.
The US dollar continues strengthening across most major forex pairs while the S&P 500 fell to a two-year low as investors fear a global recession. The US economic activity is likely to slow down after the Fed hiked the rates; however, it could take some time before we start seeing a significant reduction in inflationary pressures in the US.
The US released a number of economic indicators earlier in the session with a mix of good and bad results; Durable Goods Orders ex Defense MoM came out at -0.9%, while experts anticipated a 0.3%. New Home Sales MoM shocked us with a 28.8% result when analysts expected a -0.5%. Fed chair Jerome Powell expects this figure to drop significantly in the upcoming months after the Fed hiked interest rates 75 basis points to a total of 3.25%.
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This publication does not provide financial advice for traders, and its only purpose is education. Use all the available information from different analysts and develop your own trading strategy. Trading forex and cryptocurrencies is not for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Past performance does not indicate future results.