dont mind me.Using probability theory (Bayesian distribution) to predict when there's less resistance (outflow-inflow dynamics). 15.Sept is FED RATE decision; soo.. TLT bullish pre-October? curious.
Bayesian
BTC bullish until Oct 2021 and bearish until Oct 2022?In my biased view BTC might be somewhat bullish until the autumn of 2021 and than maybe somewhat bearish until the autumn of 2022. That will be the moment when I might consider to entry the game.
My lazy prediction is based on Volume Weighed Moving ALMA with some smooting (white line) and some past data (using bayesian ARIMA approach, but with quite low credible interval), also I calculate ALMA to current price ratio in ln, which might be fully misleading due to few data points, yet it looks like a good analysis, but it is not. So, I might be totally wrong here, but at least I do not have to worry until 2022 autumn.
Share your thoughts!
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This is NOT a trading advise! (Calculate risk, use stops, avoid FOMO, don't risk more than you can afford to lose, take responsibility.)
