How To Measure Volatility Easily|Advanced Usage Of BBHi traders!
As we said in the last article it’s kinda complicated problem to measure volatility. However, it’s one of the most important features of market. Any strategy directly depends on the volatility level of coin. Moreover, it provides signals of entry and exit. BB Width is one of the most accurate tool to measure volatility.
The Bollinger Band Width is the difference between the upper and the lower Bollinger Bands
divided by the middle band. This technical indicator provides an easy way to visualize consolidation before price movements (low bandwidth values) or periods of higher volatility (high bandwidth values). The Bollinger Band Width uses the same two parameters as the Bollinger Bands: a simple moving- average period (for the middle band) and the number of standard deviations by which the upper and lower bands should be offset from the middle band.
How does it works?
During a period of rising price volatility, the distance between the two bands will widen and Bollinger Band Width will increase. Conversely, during a period of low market volatility, the distance between the two bands will contract and Bollinger Band Width will decrease. There is a tendency for bands to alternate between expansion and contraction.
When the bands are relatively far apart, that is often a sign that the current trend may be ending. When the distance between the two bands is relatively narrow that is often a sign that a market or security may be about to initiate a pronounced move in either direction.
Bbands
Bollinger Bands as a bubble/top predictor I have been messing around with this idea for some time, and wanted to post it to TV to keep track of it as time passes.
The BB can be an effective bubble indicator on a LONG TIME FRAME for the following reasons -
-When prices are EXTREMELY high, the band will stretch to an enormous width, indicating a bubble in prices by displaying possibility of an equally massive drop. Though these bottom bands are not credible (at 20k in 2017, the bottom band forecasted a possible bottom of -$985, lol), they do accurately predict a bubble.
-When the band squeezes tightly around price, like after each bubble, this is a sign of volatile price action to come, and subsequently presents a buying opportunity.
How to predict the very top of a bubble using this strategy -
-Note the large volume spikes at the culmination of prices towards the top.
-As I have noted by the large circles on the chart, the BB will generally create final sharp angle before smoothing out into a flat shape and beginning to recoil back into a normal range. As in, this would be the last impulse in a parabolic move.
I believe there is still juice in this market, because in a parabolic run, price movements actually increase with time. Therefore, I expect us to be seeing $10k+ moves on the daily at some point. I would not be surprised if price increased by $20k+ on the final daily. Anyway, happy trading. Or in my case, happy holding.
What's Dot Doin?BINANCE:DOTUSDT - 1H
DOT is currently in price discovery. On the hourly chart a clear pattern of tall 1H candles, followed by choppy consolidation, then another tall green candle, is starting to form as it discovers a price to level off at. It's also been riding between the upper bband and EMA7 since Jan 12. At the time of writing, bbands are starting to contract above the yellow trendline, pointing towards a potential entry at $16.33.
I'd expect to see the price move back towards the trendline at somepoint in the near future, which a rebound of that would be incredibly bullish. Last test was at $11.71 and propelled to ATH at $19.4. If a retest were to happen at $15, a similar move would put it just under $22.
If the trendline were to fail, there isn't a ton of support given the coin's rapid rise over the past couple weeks. There is strong support at $7.10 should catastrophic circumstances arise though.
This is not investment advice, and trading cryptocurrency is high risk.
Long biased w/ recent settlement with Apotex and tight range.21-May-20 16:10 ET
AMRN
Amarin announces trial to evaluate effects of VASCEPA on patients with COVID-19 (7.28 -0.18)
Amarin today announced support for a clinical trial to investigate the effects of icosapent ethyl (IPE) (VASCEPA) on inflammatory biomarkers and other patient outcomes in individuals with COVID-19. The trial primary endpoint is the effect of VASCEPA versus usual care on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein levels from baseline to 14 days in adults with a COVID-19-positive diagnosis. The clinical study design also includes other endpoints that assess rates and severity of COVID-19 infection in this high-risk group.
The company states, "Based on our current understanding of the biological effects of a COVID-19 infection, including that patients at high risk of cardiovascular disease are at higher risk of mortality and severe effects from a COVID-19 infection, and based on data related to the mechanism of action and effects of VASCEPA in lowering cardiovascular risk in certain high-risk patients, it is believed that VASCEPA could play a beneficial clinical role in helping patients infected by the virus."
14-May-20 14:52 ET
AMRN
Amarin announces VASCEPA data from prespecified and post hoc analyses of REDUCE-IT study (7.64 +0.22)
Amarin today announced that data from the REDUCE-IT study presented at the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography & Interventions 2020 Scientific Sessions,showed that administration of 4 g/day of VASCEPA (icosapent ethyl) resulted in a significant 34% reduction in first coronary revascularizations versus placebo (p<0.0001). Similar reductions of 36% were observed in total, or first and subsequent, revascularizations (p<0.0001).
The analyses from the REDUCE-IT study included several types of coronary revascularization events in statin-treated patients with persistent elevated triglycerides (135-499 mg/dL), who also had either cardiovascular disease or diabetes and additional cardiovascular risk factors.
Prespecified tertiary endpoint analyses showed that times to first revascularization events were significantly reduced by VASCEPA versus placebo across subtypes of intervention, including urgent, emergent, and elective revascularizations, which were reduced by 34% (p<0.0001), 38% (p=0.02), and 32% (p<0.0001), respectively.
In post hoc analyses, VASCEPA significantly reduced percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) by 32% (p<0.0001) and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) by 39% relative to placebo (p=0.0005).
Tight Tight Tight Tight Bollinger Band SqueezeLongest period of low volatility for $DOGE since trading began
BBands only ever this tight twice in history
$Doge is typically traded as an oscillator:
- oversold <25sats
- overbought >100 sats
watch for daily/weekly closes at 30-33 sats over the next few weeks for long entry signal
Confirming 10350 as support marks the end of the BTC bear marketThere are plenty ways to make a distinction between bull and bear markets. Hereby, I throw my hat into the ring, showing you a completely different definition of bull and bear markets for BTC by using only one criterion.
Let me say this first
Over the course of the past three years, I've honed my understanding of bollinger bands and in particular, fibonacci-derived bollinger bands. Traders and analysts often laugh at me when I tell them about bbands, as they clearly don't understand how to use them properly and extract value from them. I just want to remind everyone of the fact that open-mindedness and learning are crucial in becoming a better analyst and trader. This is where you can learn something new even if you're a specialist or professional in your own style with your own methods.
On to the chart
The chart I present you is not only proof of the significance of bbands in the context of long-term market structure, but also a waypost of some sort. The first thing to note is that the bband I use here is not a normal bband, it is based on much more data than default bbands are (see setup info below for more on that).
So, a quick look at the chart reveals that, whenever price is above that band, we're in a bull market, and whenever price is below, we're in a bear market.
The accuracy with which price has been interacting with this band is even stronger than with any other long-term MA or EMA. You can also see various tests and retests of that band, the most prominent being in early 2018 after marking the new ATH and falling through the band. These tests are what determines a market type change from bull to bear or bear to bull. Before each and every bullrun, tests like that happened (confirmation of support) after it had been broken, leading to momentum picking up pace drastically directly afterwards. This is true for both directions.
As you can also see, the recent rally led to 4 (to 5) very obvious tests of this bband. These tests have been hitting the band exactly and we haven't got any 3D candle close above yet. Right now, we're approaching the band again at 10250-10350. I don't know if BTC can break this level right now, it's certainly possible but not as likely. My preference is to see consolidation in a zone below that band while we slowly drift into the peak of that major continuation triangle pattern.
The triangle can be drawn in various ways, and some models show we can go as low as 4-5k before hitting a true triangle bottom (which would still be bullish), but my eyes are focused on a scenario that makes it likely to start a bullrun by end of 2020/beginning of 2021 as it complies more with the parabolic trend we're in.
So, the event that I'm looking for in order to become extremely bullish is
1. a move to a level at least 5-10% above 10350
2. a lengthy test of the 10250-10350 area with a bounce
Upon seeing this, I believe we are on the way to break the continuation pattern to the upside.
How to add the bband to your TV chart:
- 3D BLX chart
- Add indicator 'Fibonacci Bollinger Bands' from public library
- Length 200
- Multiplicator 2.5
- Then disable all bands in style options besides the .618 from the top
Take care!
BBW 3D low volatilityI posted this on Twitter last week, the Bollinger band width on 3D timeframe has only been below the 0.1 value 3 times before, each time resulted in a significant rally.
The yellow figures represent how many bars it stayed under 0.1. It is currently on 5 consecutive bars, so although it could squeeze for a lot longer, I expect it won't last much longer.
I'm long (with stops in place of course).
Bollinger bands squeeze on the monthly chartThis idea is based on the green doji last month. If this month will also close green (Has to close over ~$10,350) then we can consider BTC consolidating for a bullish move later this year. So i will be keeping an eye on this and updating as we go along. The important thing is that BTC does NOT push lower than $8,600. It has already pushed it lower than i would have liked, so this is the absolute bottom. I will keep an eye on it and update this as we go along. Who knows, maybe later today the idea is already invalidated becase $8k broke. But lets see!
$salt long- hidden bullish divergence
- potential W bottom reversal
Safe play would be to wait for the W bottom to form (~610 sats) before going long.
powrbtc - hidden bull divergence and descending volume = ??something im curious and paying attention to is powrbtc, we hardly have any data and i have done little fundamental analysis besides finding out about this particular coin/token through crypto twitter.
BUT, hidden bull divergence and descending volume, with converging bbands = ?
would like to know any other indicators that can help to confirm trend will continue. thanks for looking and any comments or critique is appreciated
ETH to test $1k before new highsimminent correction to middle bband on the daily? a repeat of 22 december? seems likely, losing momentum on the daily chart, after touching the upper bband consistently for 9 days, we've only touched it for 1 out of the last 4. I anticipate a strong bounce if we do hit $1k, new ATH soon after.
$waves extremely bullish- hidden bullish divergence
- stoch just flipped to bullish momentum
- M top on btc signalling bearish short term movement
- W top on waves, signal bullish reversal w/ top bband tags to follow
- repeating fractal on btc (not pictured, but you can see it with the M top that just occured) with the next leg being bearish
- super bullish signal with price crossing below 200 SMA and then back above 200 SMA signalling bullish movement ahead
Fundamentals:
- Waves-NG taking effect
- 3 Waves conferences in South Korea coming up
Conclusion:
Waves has an inverse relationship with bitcoin. Bitcoin is looking super likely to trend down at the same time that waves has a ton of bullish indicators and bullish fundamentals coming up. We're going to see an awesome pump.
$waves long continuation- trading above cloud at lower intervals
- 50 SMA broke above 100 SMA and 200 SMA earlier on lower intervals, bullish
- just finished an h&s on lower intervals, but the neckline isn't bearish
- staying above 0.5 fib on retrace, so bullish continuation likely
- W bottom on bbands at 12H interval signalling bullish reversal... expect to see it tagging the upper bbands in near term future (~67k sats should be coming soon)
- Broke into the cloud at higher intervals, edge-to-edge coincides with major resistance point of 78.8k sats (short term target)
- If it breaks above 84k sats in the next week, it'll likely land somewhere above 100k sats on the low end
Waves is an absolute steal at 60k sats right now.
XMR Long"Walking the band"
- preceded by W Bottom, signalling bullish reversal
- highs "tag" the upper band
- lows don't reach lower band
- stoch rsi oversold
- signals continuation of uptrend
XEM-BTC analysisI fast analysis from NEM crypto-currency (XEMBTC) mainly based on Pitchfork trend, where Pitchfork is all about to respect the zones blue and green, and lines such as median line, bottom and top blue lines and their intersection between the blue and green region. So, bases on 4hrs time-frame it is possible to see that we have a interesting trend.
Until it is possible to notice, the market is about to test the region where is located the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) 50 periods. Then, in case this EMA 50 hold the the price, it is possible to make a entry in this asset; nevertheless, a short time-frame analysis in necessary to refine the entry.
However, it is still necessary (in my opinion) wait for a reversal signal based on MACD . Even though MACD and RSI do not show divergence, it is clear that at least MACD did not show a change in its signal line, which means that the price will keep falling/testing EMA 50.
Bollinger Bands show us the price bellow its base/median line, which means a possible continuation of bearish movement.
To interact with this chart, please click below in RELATED IDEAS
For analysis based on Ichimoku Cloud , please click on the reference link below RELATED IDEAS.
Dash Saturday ConvergenceTrend lines are converging, BBands pinching. Took a long position w high Stop Limit, 'natch.
Dash's market cap still low compared to the amount of visibility and R&D they are socializing. I love how transparent they are, how many YT vids they publish, the many public meetings and webinars they make. Overall very likable and open with clear goals and strategies moving forward. Evolution App is promising. Grama can apparently use it. Plus, Dash is a company which can be bought by Google / Verizon (*see MPesa in Africa.. huge mobile payment system, very successful) / Apple etc.
Ethereum needs to pay attention.
Few reasons why BTC must go down some moreTA is actually pretty simple here:
1) Bollinger Bands analysis - notice how the price was three times outside my BBs (21), marking a special condition of the market. That condition is called mass hysteria and it always calls for some kind of correction, which must lead us down enough to compensate previous strong bullish euphoria or speaking more technically - volatility means not only up, but also down.
2) June's rally was on lighter volume than October's one, meaning that the supply of losers for bulls to prey on is drying up. There is just no fuel for a new rally and we need to give it some more time.
3) The Directional system confirms that the uptrend is currently chilling down.
4) And the most conservative signal here, when confirmed - nearing bearish MACD cross.
Moving averages are still showing up and that's not going to change at least until 2017, I bet - but the rocket is not ready for launch yet. Minimal target for downmove - 560, then 510-470 area.