IOT starting to squeezeBITFINEX:IOTUSD really failed to capture any of the bullish momentum of the last week. It was a definite underperformer among the highest volume cryptocurrencies. This morning triggered a signal that the volatility has slowly decreased into a wedge with a potential bearish breakout setup. Because this was the lagger of the recent momentum I'd say this is one of the weaker cryptocurrencies and an increased probability for a short.
Bbksqueeze
Bitcoin keeps on going off the squeezeThis week two cryptocurrency opportunities happened in BITFINEX:BTCUSD and a similar one in BITFINEX:ETHBTC . Both on the 30m/60m timeframes had the BBK Squeeze which alerted me to them.
I have to admit that for most of my trading I have shunned the use of wedges as a technical indicator pattern. That is changing now with a new appreciation. The reason is because I can now filter them out, set quantitative alerts, and remove a lot of the subjectivity.
Probability is your friendI wanted to share my research for today in a pattern I have begun to notice regarding the BBK Squeezes. Often times a "squeeze within a squeeze" is a great precursor to a breakout move. This really just goes back to the classic chart patterns of wedges and flags which many people use to great success. By coding it up though it lets me do two very important things as a trader: A) give me a visual representation for pattern recognition and B) setup alert triggers for many instruments so I do not have to watch them all of the time.
From a straight up probability standpoint if we look for these squeezes on BITFINEX:BTCUSD over the last year or so the 'both' squeeze has happened on the Daily chart 7 times. 5 of those would have yielded breakouts of 1-to-1 or greater reward/risk. Yes there were losses but losses are just a part of trading. The probability of using the signal as a strategy makes up for that.
I also have begun using this to find opportunities on forex pairs like the FOREXCOM:NZDCHF and FOREXCOM:NZDUSD this week in particular. The intent of developing this strategy was to be able to use Tradingview to scan for these periods of low volatility that may precede high volatility.
Pretty not badUsing BBK Squeeze to predict upcoming price breakouts has worked quite well from a probability standpoint on BITFINEX:BTCUSD over the last year on the Daily chart. I like it because once I can see it is SIMPLE. However, I am constantly trying to make SIMPLE... BETTER! LOL
Still research and developing ways to better filter the signals for even higher probability. The other issue I have with breakout trades is that very often you have to settle for a 1:1 reward/risk in MOST trades. On a low probability of times do you get a much larger run from a breakout but most will only run to the next support/resistance level. Crunching the data and doing more testing is the only way to optimize.
Update with examples of the BBK SqueezeBITFINEX:BTCUSD is starting to show another squeeze on the 30m timeframe as price begins to consolidate. There was a great trade on the 30m using the indicator over the weekend. I also look at where another BBK Squeeze took price from the 11000 levels on the swing trading timeframe a few weeks ago.
If you are patient and wait for the BBK Squeeze to filter out the noise you can find some great potential breakouts!
DM me or comment for more info...