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ECB impact on IBEX 35 and EURUSDThe European Central Bank (ECB) has taken a definite path towards monetary easing under the leadership of Christine Lagarde, whose dovish (stimulus) policy is designed to address the eurozone's economic slowdown without compromising strategic sustainability objectives. The recent rate cuts, combined with the rollback of the €1.85 trillion debt purchase program, reflect an expansionary stance that seeks to sustain growth, finance sustainable projects and ensure economic stability. The dovish policy and its connection to the Green Deal and Mercosur Lagarde's stance, characterized by an accommodative monetary policy, is manifested in a series of decisions aimed at easing financial conditions. The re-orientation of the debt purchase program, initially designed to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, is now focused on supporting strategic sectors such as agriculture and the ecological transition, fundamental pillars of the European Green Deal. In addition, this policy fosters synergies with the Mercosur-EU agreement, which prioritizes agricultural and sustainable trade. The funds redistributed by the ECB reinforce support for the modernization of the agricultural sector, facilitating the transition to more sustainable practices in line with the European Commission's climate objectives. Impact on EURUSD and financial markets The ECB's dovish stance puts pressure on the euro against the dollar, maintaining a clear, albeit moderate, bearish path. However, this strategy seeks to create a low interest rate environment that facilitates the financing of green and sustainable projects, consolidating the perception of stability in the Eurozone. In the short term, the EUR/USD could face fluctuations, but in the long term, the flow of sustainable investments could support a moderate recovery of the euro. The ECB's expansionary policy also encourages appetite for riskier assets, which could translate into a strengthening of equity markets. From a technical perspective, the dollar has tested the lows of 1.04525 in the wake of the news, moving sideways in today's morning session. The IBEX 35 and the key levels to watch The IBEX 35, although affected by the volatility associated with the ECB's decisions, could benefit from strategic sectors linked to the Green Deal, such as energy and agriculture. The aid redistributed from the debt purchase program will boost key companies in the index, reinforcing the bullish outlook. From a technical perspective, the index maintains its consolidation in the range of 11,700-11,850 points, with crucial support at 11,625 points. As long as these levels are not lost, the market could resume its uptrend, in line with the optimism generated by the ECB's expansionary policy and the expectations of a Christmas Rally. Conclusion: Synergy between monetary policy and sustainability Lagarde's dovish policy not only addresses the economic slowdown, but also supports the European Union's strategic objectives. The redirection of the debt purchase program towards sustainable and agricultural projects strengthens the ECB's commitment to balanced growth, while fostering economic resilience in an uncertain global environment. For investors, this scenario offers opportunities in key sectors, supported by an expansive monetary framework and sustainable policies. Both the IBEX 35 and the EUR/USD remain watchful of the evolution of these measures, which could mark the beginning of a phase of a return to sustained and resilient growth in the eurozone. Ion Jauregui - Analyst ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35
by ActivTrades
possible accumulation The fiber is trading in a range and we can notice an upthrust and apossible spring, we still cannot confirm that the low of today is the real spring, in fact if we trade in a conservative way we might wait other confirmations before thinking about opening a long trade, if you are more aggressive you might open a buy with tp and sl as highlighted on the chart above. Pay attention at the fundametal news, especially on thursday during ECB event If you want more specific information send me a direct message. Francesco
by Dragon_Investments
Is Euro Bullish? Hello and welcome to my trading idea about EUR/USD. I want to explain to you why I think that EUR will be bullish in the next few days. So, first of all, look at the weekly chart. In this chart, you can see a full 5 waves cycle followed by 3 wave correction (zigzag). So, after a correction, a new impulse starts and we can see that in the new bullish trend from 2017 to 2018, followed by another correction. Let's see with zoom the second wave of the two cycles... Here is the first big cycle. Look at the retracement level and save it in your mind. Now let's see the second little cycle: We have a similar behavior about the correction of the first wave. So I think that we can say that our USD has this behavior about 2nd waves. This and the completed ABC correction before the new cycle allow me to think that this is a new cycle. Said that I think that the market is bullish in the long run. Now let's see the short term situation: FIRST ANALYSIS SECOND ANALYSIS In the first analysis, the cycle is completed and a correction is going on. In the second, the cycle is completing its fifth wave or we need a bit more time (1 or 2 days) to complete the 4th wave and start the last wave. SO, WHAT ANALYSIS DO WE CHOOSE? So if we consider the second analysis, the 4th wave could be a double zigzag. Very strange in its form but it can be. If instead, we consider the first analysis, the 4th wave is a zigzag and it has more sense. More the wave in this chart does not seem a correction wave, a requisite for double zigzag (upvote for first vision): There is also an element that can give us trust about the second vision: Here I can see this cycle corrected by a zig-zag with the same level of retracement of the other 2nd waves. So I can think that this is the second wave of the fifth wave of the cycle, in this way: CONCLUSION So if the 2nd vision is correct, we can expect a new cycle for completing the biggest cycle. The level for invalidating this idea is the following because the 2nd wave cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1: More, we stay at the level of the 4th wave of the previous wave of a less general degree, which is a support for the length of the 4th wave. Setting this level as a stop loss, you can have a trade with a risk/reward ratio of more than 3, which is very good. If the first vision is correct, we can this movement, more or less: . The invalidation level for the first vision is this: So... we will wait for the market and move as snipers! If you like the idea, please like it and follow me. Thank you for your time!
Long
by StockStork
2
FTSEMIB: uncertain directionVery short term In line with the other world indices, this upward trend driven by the resumption of American prices will tend to continue. The level to which it will aim in the very short term is the dynamic resistance identified by the weekly EMA200 at an altitude of 20450 points: from here it will be understood whether it will have the strength to continue towards 20900 points breaking it and confirming the upside break, or if it will be rejected by taking over of the main trend. Short and mid term From a technical point of view in the short/medium term, the Italian index is still bearish. The trend is confirmed even from a fundamental study: the unstable political-economic situation of our country and the growth forecasts for 2019 ( near the flat level ), with the general European situation also in the balance, it is very probable that soon we will assist to a new drop in prices and in particular on the FTSE MIB that will return to bet 18000 points.
F
by BFCMInvest
EUR/USD and Mario Draghi ?! Ready to fall !The trend is bearish in the short and medium term, while in the very short it remains lateral. With the last conference of the ECB governor, the investors have been surprised by a sudden change of vision by Draghi, who said that as early as the first quarter of 2019 could start to issue money at 0 interest rate in favor of the banking system since the European economic situation is getting worse. Neither deposit rates and interest rates will be increased. The main trend is now bearish in daily and weekly time frame, the price continues to move under the EMA 20 periods, and under the bearish ichimoku cloud, for the static level for a trend inversion (at 1.15) seems to be too strong to be passed in the short term, the price is rejected since the end of September. The target, at this point, if Draghi confirmed the hypotheses declared in the conference on January 24th, would be in the support zone between 1.10 and 1.08.
Short
by BFCMInvest
BCE stock could be in for a bullish breakoutFollowing a double bottom pattern maybe BCE has finally found a bottom, if the bull move continues we are looking at a target of 43 with a volatility stop around 39.20. Maybe just wait for the price to keep increasing to make sure this is not in fact a double top, in which case the movement could be bearish. I am siding on bullish though because of the direction of the MACD indicator (going up). Let me know what you think in the comments, and like to share this idea with more people.
NYSE:BCELong
by James_Winsoar
The Big Bubble - Correlation S&P500 vs Treasury 30y2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA: - Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF. - Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US bond market and goes on US stocks - RISK ON. START THE BUBBLE: The first divergence for Fed QE & BoJ: A rising index corresponds to a fall in yields = excess liquidity in the market - Bubble begins to swell and then be absorbed THE BIG BUBBLE: The divergence between performance of the stocks and lower yields on the bond market is the highest ever. The bubble is always more swollen and the two lines more and more divergent. A Fed rate hike (and therefore yield) approaches the two lines (seen in early 2015) but if this were not enough the bubble may deflate and bring down the stocks..fly to normality?! BE CAREFUL
FX:SPX500Short
by guado77
Higher rates thoughts push down EurStay short EurGbp or, if you prefear, long GBP! Since the macro economic data started to improve, the pressure on the exchange rate has became stronger. The beginning of rates normalization will make the UK's currency more expansive versus the Euromoney. At the same time, the chart seems to confirm the bearish view: It is unlikely (given also the macro-analysis) that the price will brake-up the current level @0.7895, looking also at the RSI oscillator (in 60 area), we have no signs of bullish trend beginnin. My view is that the price will continue its down trend, following the channel you can clearly see on the charts. Take care of 0.78 area that could be a strong point of inversion or continuation of the trend.
Short
by NicoS