USDCHF Long Setup On USDCHF, we have a price that has returned to the 0.883 area after almost 2 years. I have highlighted a demand zone within which the market has created an additional support zone that could be the entry point for a long trade that I partially set up. Risk-reward ratio is 1:12.
Be aware that the ECB press conference will take place in less than an hour.
Let me know what you think.
Good trading to all.
Forex48 Trading Academy
BCE
EURNZD downside I longed this from 1.6710 (see related idea).
Now i think it's about time to go back down.
Someone would argue that's a bullish flag but i think we might get the chance to short this before it keeps going up.
I've just set a Sell limit at 1.6910 SL 1.7010
TP1 1.6745 TP2 1.65800
Let's see how this plays out.
Be looking for new entries.
Stay tuned.
possible accumulation The fiber is trading in a range and we can notice an upthrust and apossible spring, we still cannot confirm that the low of today is the real spring, in fact if we trade in a conservative way we might wait other confirmations before thinking about opening a long trade, if you are more aggressive you might open a buy with tp and sl as highlighted on the chart above.
Pay attention at the fundametal news, especially on thursday during ECB event
If you want more specific information send me a direct message.
Francesco
Is Euro Bullish? Hello and welcome to my trading idea about EUR/USD.
I want to explain to you why I think that EUR will be bullish in the next few days. So, first of all, look at the weekly chart.
In this chart, you can see a full 5 waves cycle followed by 3 wave correction (zigzag). So, after a correction, a new impulse starts and we can see that in the new bullish trend from 2017 to 2018, followed by another correction.
Let's see with zoom the second wave of the two cycles...
Here is the first big cycle. Look at the retracement level and save it in your mind.
Now let's see the second little cycle:
We have a similar behavior about the correction of the first wave. So I think that we can say that our USD has this behavior about 2nd waves.
This and the completed ABC correction before the new cycle allow me to think that this is a new cycle.
Said that I think that the market is bullish in the long run.
Now let's see the short term situation:
FIRST ANALYSIS
SECOND ANALYSIS
In the first analysis, the cycle is completed and a correction is going on. In the second, the cycle is completing its fifth wave or we need a bit more time (1 or 2 days) to complete the 4th wave and start the last wave.
SO, WHAT ANALYSIS DO WE CHOOSE?
So if we consider the second analysis, the 4th wave could be a double zigzag. Very strange in its form but it can be. If instead, we consider the first analysis, the 4th wave is a zigzag and it has more sense.
More the wave in this chart does not seem a correction wave, a requisite for double zigzag (upvote for first vision):
There is also an element that can give us trust about the second vision:
Here I can see this cycle corrected by a zig-zag with the same level of retracement of the other 2nd waves.
So I can think that this is the second wave of the fifth wave of the cycle, in this way:
CONCLUSION
So if the 2nd vision is correct, we can expect a new cycle for completing the biggest cycle.
The level for invalidating this idea is the following because the 2nd wave cannot retrace more than 100% of wave 1:
More, we stay at the level of the 4th wave of the previous wave of a less general degree, which is a support for the length of the 4th wave.
Setting this level as a stop loss, you can have a trade with a risk/reward ratio of more than 3, which is very good.
If the first vision is correct, we can this movement, more or less:
.
The invalidation level for the first vision is this:
So... we will wait for the market and move as snipers!
If you like the idea, please like it and follow me.
Thank you for your time!
EURUSD : first stop around 1.16 ?
Actually the EU situation is critical concerning the COVID context.
The European Central Bank wont change anything about policy parameters.
All decision will be made on December.
Actually, the price is under 1.17, the next step is 1.16 . if the 1.16 is broken so im waiting for a return at 1.13.
good trade
FTSEMIB: uncertain directionVery short term
In line with the other world indices, this upward trend driven by the resumption of American prices will tend to continue. The level to which it will aim in the very short term is the dynamic resistance identified by the weekly EMA200 at an altitude of 20450 points: from here it will be understood whether it will have the strength to continue towards 20900 points breaking it and confirming the upside break, or if it will be rejected by taking over of the main trend.
Short and mid term
From a technical point of view in the short/medium term, the Italian index is still bearish. The trend is confirmed even from a fundamental study: the unstable political-economic situation of our country and the growth forecasts for 2019 ( near the flat level ), with the general European situation also in the balance, it is very probable that soon we will assist to a new drop in prices and in particular on the FTSE MIB that will return to bet 18000 points.
EUR/USD and Mario Draghi ?! Ready to fall !The trend is bearish in the short and medium term, while in the very short it remains lateral. With the last conference of the ECB governor, the investors have been surprised by a sudden change of vision by Draghi, who said that as early as the first quarter of 2019 could start to issue money at 0 interest rate in favor of the banking system since the European economic situation is getting worse. Neither deposit rates and interest rates will be increased.
The main trend is now bearish in daily and weekly time frame, the price continues to move under the EMA 20 periods, and under the bearish ichimoku cloud, for the static level for a trend inversion (at 1.15) seems to be too strong to be passed in the short term, the price is rejected since the end of September.
The target, at this point, if Draghi confirmed the hypotheses declared in the conference on January 24th, would be in the support zone between 1.10 and 1.08.
BCE stock could be in for a bullish breakoutFollowing a double bottom pattern maybe BCE has finally found a bottom, if the bull move continues we are looking at a target of 43 with a volatility stop around 39.20.
Maybe just wait for the price to keep increasing to make sure this is not in fact a double top, in which case the movement could be bearish. I am siding on bullish though because of the direction of the MACD indicator (going up).
Let me know what you think in the comments, and like to share this idea with more people.
AUDUSD short momentum Hello guys AUDUSD has stalled just shy of the resistance level of 0.7700 as bulls take a break from their recent run. The area is full of resistance and bears will try and use this to their advantage as they look to regain their recent lows, with targets at 0.7650, 0.7625 and 0.7600.
EUR VS USD_The Road to 1:1Eur vs Usd - 1 months
Long-term view
1.0450 main support . The break of support with the closing of the the monthly candle inside downward channel push the cross to parity by June or at the September 2015.
Trade from 1.0450 - Area of earnings up to a minimum of 2001 , stop at max last month ( March 2015 ).
The FIB retracement from top 2014 seems to confirm the various steps -
1.112 = 0.5fib
1.0440 = 0.382fib
0.959 = 0.236fib
The Big Bubble - Correlation S&P500 vs Treasury 30y2007-2012: Convergence between S&P500 trend and yield on Treasury 30y USA:
- Downhill stocks leads to a reduction in yields on the bond market . The flow of money coming out of the US stocks and goes to US bonds for the "safe haven" - RISK OFF.
- Rise in share prices on stocks leading the market yield bonds to rise due to the vendite.Flow of money out of the US bond market and goes on US stocks - RISK ON.
START THE BUBBLE: The first divergence for Fed QE & BoJ: A rising index corresponds to a fall in yields = excess liquidity in the market - Bubble begins to swell and then be absorbed
THE BIG BUBBLE: The divergence between performance of the stocks and lower yields on the bond market is the highest ever. The bubble is always more swollen and the two lines more and more divergent. A Fed rate hike (and therefore yield) approaches the two lines (seen in early 2015) but if this were not enough the bubble may deflate and bring down the stocks..fly to normality?!
BE CAREFUL
Higher rates thoughts push down EurStay short EurGbp or, if you prefear, long GBP!
Since the macro economic data started to improve, the pressure on the exchange rate has became stronger. The beginning of rates normalization will make the UK's currency more expansive versus the Euromoney.
At the same time, the chart seems to confirm the bearish view: It is unlikely (given also the macro-analysis) that the price will brake-up the current level @0.7895, looking also at the RSI oscillator (in 60 area), we have no signs of bullish trend beginnin. My view is that the price will continue its down trend, following the channel you can clearly see on the charts.
Take care of 0.78 area that could be a strong point of inversion or continuation of the trend.