Get started

Bcousdlong

Oil Prices Climb on Inventory DrawdownOil prices edged higher on July 3rd, 2024, buoyed by signs of a significant decline in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, for September settlement rose 0.1% to $86.34 a barrel by 10:21 AM in London. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark for August delivery, inched up to $82.88 a barrel. This price increase comes amidst a wider risk-on sentiment in the global financial markets. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, have been reaching record highs, and this optimism appears to be spilling over into the oil market. Inventory Drawdown: A Cause for Optimism The primary driver behind the oil price increase is a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating a substantial drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories. According to sources familiar with the data, crude inventories fell by a significant 9.2 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the official figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later this week, this would mark the largest single-week decline in stockpiles since January 2024. A decline in stockpiles indicates a tightening of supply, which can lead to higher prices. This is because crude oil is a fungible commodity, meaning a barrel of oil from one source is generally equivalent to a barrel from another. So, if stockpiles decline in the United States, it can impact global supply and drive prices up. Geopolitical Tensions and Summer Driving Season Lend Support Apart from the inventory drawdown, several other factors are contributing to the current oil price rally. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated around the world, particularly in the Middle East. The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah, along with potential upcoming elections in France and the UK, are keeping investors on edge. Disruptions to oil supplies from these regions could significantly impact prices. Summer is typically a season of increased demand for gasoline due to vacation travel. While the API report also indicated a decline in gasoline stockpiles, concerns linger about weak U.S. gasoline demand, which could temper the current price uptick. Looking Ahead: Factors to Consider The oil market remains susceptible to several factors that could influence prices in the coming weeks and months. Here are some key elements to keep an eye on: • Confirmation of API Inventory Data: Official confirmation from the EIA regarding the inventory drawdown will be crucial. If the data is validated, it will solidify the current bullish sentiment in the market. • Global Economic Growth: The health of the global economy, particularly major oil-consuming countries like China, will significantly impact demand. A strong global economic recovery will likely lead to higher oil demand and consequently, higher prices. • The Upcoming Hurricane Season: The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st, 2024. If major hurricanes disrupt oil production facilities or shipping routes in the Gulf of Mexico, it could lead to price spikes. • Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions and price increases. Overall, the recent oil price increase is a result of a confluence of factors, including a potential decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a risk-on sentiment in the financial markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While some headwinds exist, such as concerns about weak U.S. gasoline demand, the near-term outlook for oil prices appears cautiously optimistic. In conclusion, the oil market is currently in a state of flux. While several factors currently support higher prices, the path forward remains uncertain. Close monitoring of inventory data, global economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and the Atlantic hurricane season will be crucial for understanding how oil prices will behave in the coming months.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Jump on the Oil Swings with Confidence!I am excited to share some positive news with you regarding the recent developments in the oil industry. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories took a significant dip last week, falling by a whopping 6.37 million barrels. This decline has sparked a wave of optimism in the market, with WTI prices hovering around $83 a barrel and swinging between gains and losses. As we navigate through this risk-off mood and witness the US stockpile decline, now is the perfect time to consider going long on oil. The potential for further price increases is certainly within reach, and this could be a lucrative opportunity for all of us. So, let's not hesitate and take advantage of these oil swings with confidence. Trust your instincts, do your research, and make informed decisions. Together, we can ride the wave of success in the oil market.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Brent Crude Oil Demand Spike(WTICOUSD, too)Looking forward to entering Long on BCOUSD after NFP today. Am not too eager to enter, if it happens, its good. If it doesn't happen, I am fine too, since today is Friday, and I have to hold my positions over the weekends. I am used to holding trades over the weekends, however I prefer the weekdays. Therefore, when Mondays roll around, I thank God its Monday! Anyway, our discounted price zone is the 10EMA based on previous Black Friday Sale discounts offered. Price made a kink in the 10EMA discount by offering 20EMA discount yesterday or so, however, I do not believe it would continue giving 20EMA discounts which is bigger discounts, because, the Flag Pole is very big and long, while the flag is minute. As usual, I am very aggressive at cutting losses, and moving my stop loss towards Breakeven and into profits. Once the trade is in, I will immediately shift my stoploss upwards by one tenth of the SL size, because my intention is never to price hit my full R loss. I am wrong many a times, by being too aggressive at cutting losses, moving my stop loss forward, etc and price continues to go in my favour after I am out of the trade, however, the results does show that I am profitable, and so, I will continue with my new ways. I began doing such aggressive SL shifting earlier this year at around February, and it has been profits for me ever since, week on week. 2002SGT 05042024
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by ProfessionalDuckHunter
Capitalize on the Crude Surge! Exciting Opportunities Await!After months of languishing, crude oil has skyrocketed above $80 a barrel in London, signaling a remarkable recovery in fuel demand across China and other regions post-pandemic. But that's not all! Brace yourselves for an even more thrilling development: production cutbacks by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies are poised to deplete storage tanks worldwide rapidly. Now, I know what you're thinking - what does this mean for us? Well, my fellow traders, we are on the verge of an extraordinary opportunity to capitalize on this crude surge! The stars have aligned, and it's time to consider long oil positions that could potentially yield substantial profits. As fuel demand continues to soar, propelled by China's impressive recovery and other countries following suit, the global oil market is set to witness unprecedented growth. With Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ allies tightening their grip on production, storage tanks are expected to drain rapidly, creating an environment ripe with potential for traders like us. So, why wait? Seize the moment and take advantage of this exciting turn of events! Consider long oil positions and position yourselves to ride the wave of this remarkable crude surge. You'll strategically position yourself to maximize your gains and potentially reap substantial profits by doing so. Remember, timing is everything in the trading world, and this is a prime opportunity that cannot be ignored. Don't let this thrilling chance slip through your fingers. Take action now and dive into the world of long oil positions to unlock the potential for extraordinary returns. If you have any questions, need further guidance, or want to discuss this thrilling opportunity, please comment away. I am here to support and assist you every step of the way.
NYSE:BCOLong
by bryandowningqln
Oil Declines as Traders Weigh Mideast Supply After Biden TripOil eased as investors weighed the odds of more supply from the Middle East after a landmark trip to the region by US President Joe Biden. West Texas Intermediate edged lower in early Asian trading, following last week’s drop of almost 7% as investors fretted that a global slowdown may hurt demand and the dollar hit a record. US energy envoy Amos Hochstein said he is confident Persian Gulf producers will increase output after Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia. Investors also focused on the return of crude from Libya. Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah said that the country’s exports are on track for a full resumption after months of outages as he justified his replacement of the leadership at state-run oil company National Oil Corp. Crude has slumped since mid-June as concerns about a potential recession ripped through commodity markets, eroding the gains that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the drop has been a boost for the US administration, Biden remains eager to get the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to add supplies to bring prices down further and help quell inflation. In India, meanwhile, gasoline and diesel sales during the first half of July dropped from last month as seasonal rains cut demand in the third-biggest energy consumer. The drop was the first monthly decline in three months. The pressing global need to slash emissions in the face of a growing climate crisis is driving renewed interest in nuclear power — and few places more sothan in Canada’s oilsands. While the idea of using nuclear power to replace the fossil fuels burned in oilsands production has been bandied about for years, some experts say the reality could be just a decade or so away. On paper, at least, there is more potential to deploy small modular reactor (SMR) technology in the oilsands region of Alberta than anywhere else in the country. Without a doubt the oilsands is the biggest market for small modular reactors in Canada,” said John Gorman, president and chief executive of the Canadian Nuclear Association. “It’s something that some companies are very actively looking at.” Small modular reactors are a type of nuclear design that is far smaller than a traditional nuclear reactor. Generating between 10 and 300 MW of energy, SMRs are fully scalable and are designed to be built economically in factory conditions, rather than on site like a large-scale conventional reactor. While SMRs are not yet commercially available, the technology is getting close. The International Atomic Energy Agency estimates that nearly 100 SMRs could be operating around the world by 2030. In Canada, four provinces — New Brunswick, Ontario, Saskatchewan and Alberta — have agreed to collaborate on the advancement of SMRs as a clean energy option, and Canadian researchers are working on new materials and designs that could make SMRs practical in a large range of new uses. Article content Proponents say SMRs could potentially be used not only to provide clean electricity to smaller electricity grids, like those in rural areas, but also to provide heat for natural resource industries. In the oilsands, operators use massive amounts of high-temperature heat to produce the steam needed to extract bitumen from sand — and they get that heat by burning natural gas. In total, the oil and gas industry is responsible for 30 per cent of Canada’s natural gas consumption, which means confronting the industry’s fossil fuel usage will be key if Canada is to meet its climate commitments. The oilsands industry itself — through an organization called Pathways Alliance, which is made up of Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., ConocoPhillips Canada, Imperial Oil Ltd., MEG Energy Corp. and Suncor Energy Inc. — has committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions from oilsands production by 22 million tonnes annually by 2030, and reaching a goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Article content To help get there, the Pathways Alliance has proposed a major carbon capture and storage transportation line that would capture CO2 from oilsands facilities and transport it to a storage facility near Cold Lake, Alta. That project alone could deliver about 10 million tonnes of emissions reductions per year and could be up and running by the end of the decade. But Pathways has also formed a committee to formally explore nuclear as an alternative to natural gas in oilsands production. “Absolutely, we are looking at SMRs as a low or no-emission source of the high temperature heat we need,” said Martha Hall Findlay, chief climate officer for Suncor Energy Inc. “But it has to be economically viable. It has to make sense.” Article content Findlay said the industry will need clarity around what level of government financial support, if any, will be available for SMRs. There are also questions around the regulatory process, given the energy sector’s frustrating experience in recent years getting large-scale projects approved. “It’s Canada — it takes a really long time to build anything,” she said. “But if we want to see implementation by 2030, or into the early 2030s, we have to be doing this stuff now. We have to be looking at it now.” Dan Wicklum, president and CEO of non-profit advisory group The Transition Accelerator and the former CEO of the Canadian Oilsands Innovation Alliance, said the energy industry has formally evaluated the nuclear opportunity in the past and discarded it, largely because of cost. Article content But he said the industry’s new target of net-zero emissions “changes everything.” “We can no longer just do the things we were going to do to reduce emissions. Optionality has fallen off the table for us,” Wicklum said. “In an emissions elimination paradigm, there’s no question that nuclear is being taken very seriously.” However, Wicklum added that for any large-scale emissions reductions projects to get off the ground, governments and industry will have to come to an agreement about whose responsibility it is to pay for them. “Industry is looking to the federal government to say, ‘make it worth our while’, he said. “They want more taxpayer dollars. They’ve essentially said there’s not enough public support right now for them to act. And because of that, I think, the feasibility of SMRs — as well as carbon capture and storage, and so on — is completely in question.”
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
BCOil Breaks 2Day High 21-25June 2022BCO breaking 2D High very quickly after Asian Open. Tumoilsin Lybia,uncertainty and mixed participants,long-Term Trend Traders took profits at 127 area that was followed by the Russians announcements to increase the Russian oil production in 2023.And ofcourse the recesion fears of 2023. Technicallyis BCO still in the long area.Yesterday on 20th June 2023 the market was not able to reach the 20 Day low(Donchian),The very important resistance (115) was broken on Friday ,but the Bulls fought it back.AlsoYesterday The bears tried to break the heavily defended 113 Area, but the market came back to 1155 zone andmade a new high,shortly before BCO closed early( Juneenth!) Today the market opened at high and made 5 consequent Highs in row. The RSI 200 in positive territory. The RSI 9 and 6 confirm. Quarter VWAP is giving more green lights to be bullish(Short Term).If 127 becomes new Support,wewillsee150 USD before the summer time. Industry Summary: The global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market potential is exploding at an unstoppable rate. During the forecast period, this global market is expected to grow at a rapid pace. And it's feasible thanks to the advancement of modern technology, which has opened up new doors for the sector. Owing to the private and public sector investment in the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating industry. The market is anticipated to expand. Increased public awareness of environmental contaminants and more stringent government laws to reduce carbon emissions. The market for fuel cell electric vehicles is predicted to grow. During the forecast timeframe, grow. Get an exclusive free sample research report: www.fatposglobal.com COVID-19 Impact Analysis: Due to lockdowns and travel restrictions, the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant influence on the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market. The production and delivery of the goods were both delayed. The delivery of raw materials was also delayed. However, following the pandemic, there has been a recovery as limitations have been eased and supporting government policies have been implemented. Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market Scope:   The current market research report breaks down the demand for the 4K Set-Top Box Market into different segments. It gives executives insight into Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating and how they may expand their market share.   We use cutting-edge industrial and digitalization methods to give our customers cutting-edge market intelligence on fuel cell interconnectors. In market research, a SWOT analysis was used to look at each player's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats on a global and regional level.   Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market Segmentation: Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market Segments: By Resin Epoxy Polyurethane Alkyd Acrylic Inorganic Zinc Others By Installation Jackups Floaters Drillships Semisubmersibles Others  Industry Drivers and Restrictions In this research, high-impact rendering variables and drivers have been investigated in order to help readers understand the overall trend without wasting time. Furthermore, the report contains constraints and obstacles that may operate as roadblocks for the players. Users will be able to pay attention and make well-informed business judgments as a result of this. Experts have also focused on the next business opportunities. The prominent vendors profiled in the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market are: 3M CO. AKZONOBEL N.V. HEMPLEL A/S KANSAI PAINTS CO., LTD. NIPPON PAINTS CO. LTD. PPG INDUSTRIES, INC. THE SHERWIN-WILLIAMS COMPANY WACKER CHEMIE AG Jotun §  A&A Coatings    Regional Analysis of the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market: Growing energy consumption and power generation in the Asia Pacific region is driving the demand for Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating. Therefore, Asia Pacific is expected to be an attractive region for all participants in the global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market. The growing automation industry in Asia Pacific, Europe and North America is expected to support the growth of the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market during the forecast period. Key Insights gained from Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market Research Report: Basic macro and microeconomic factors influencing Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market sales. Basic overview of Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating including market definitions, classifications, and, applications. The Report scrutinizes each market participant based on M&A, R&D projects, and product launches. Analysis of the adoption trends and supply side of fuel cell interconnectors across various industries. Important regions and countries that provide lucrative opportunities for market stakeholders. The demand study of the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market includes the current market scenario for the global platform and the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market development and sales over the forecast period. For more questions on customizations before purchase, visit below: www.fatposglobal.com The Key Questions Answered in the report include: At what rate the global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market will grow in the projected period? What are the different types of products? What is the expected CAGR of the Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating Market in the coming years? Which product type is leading the industry? What is the impact of COVID-19 on the global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market? Who are the key players in the global Offshore Oil & Gas Paints and Coating market and what are the key strategies adopted by them? Which segment is leading by applications?
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
2
Oil prices to continue to rise?Last week's news headline, "OPEC sticks to production plan as high oil prices boost economy". We could almost say oil is a necessity in our daily lives. For transport, for heating in cold countries. Although we face high inflation, and a possible recession, would we expect oil to hit a point of demand destruction? At this point, I doubt so. So there is a real possibility of oil prices hitting the high again. Technical analysis wise, I am seeing a higher low into resistance. On 18-19 April, it printed a head and shoulders at resistance on the 4H chart before heading back down to re-test the dynamic support, or the upward trendline. Expecting price to consolidate for a while at this area.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by geneAnalytics
WTI bulls step in with price holding back above $100bblsThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Wednesday to break above the top of the candlestick from Tuesday. If you remember, the Tuesday candlestick was what I referred to as a potential “binary trade”, meaning that if we can break above it, the market could go higher. After all, the neutral candlestick suggests that we are in the midst of trying to figure out whether or not momentum will pick up. Now that we have broken decisively to the upside, the market looks very likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $120 level. Given enough time, we could go all the way to the $130 level yet again. The market has been very bullish, but I do not want to see some type of parabolic move, because as you can see, we had recently had one of those, which of course fell apart quite drastically. There is only a certain amount of momentum that can come into a market without it falling apart, so the sustainability of the uptrend is what I am looking for. Looking at the chart, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $96.55 level and climbing. As long as we can stay above this indicator, it does suggest that we are still in an uptrend. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so I think we will continue to see buyers on every short-term dip. The market has been very noisy but has also been decidedly positive. I have no scenario in which I am willing to short the oil market anytime soon, so looking at dips as potential buying opportunities will continue to be the way to approach the market. That being said, we will eventually run into “demand destruction”, but I do not think we are anywhere near that right now. Ultimately, this is a market that I think has quite a bit of upward mobility to it, especially as the war in Ukraine rages on. The lack of Russian oil on the open market is going to continue to cause issues, but inflation itself is reason enough to think that oil should continue to go higher. Regardless, this is a market that continues to offer plenty of opportunities for those willing to be patient enough to find value. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the US gave written guarantees that Western sanctions against the country will not impact future trade with Iran, CNBC reported on 18 March. After hovering lower for two weeks, Brent briefly returned to above $120/bbl on 25 March on reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels – backed by Iran – launched fresh attacks on Saudia Arabia. The attack hit Saudi Aramco’s oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh. WTI also rose to above $114/bbl on the day. The man who predicted crude oil $120 in 2020 when crude was at $30 alltime low The EIA raised the trading price of Crude oil by $22 per barrel to an average of $105.22 per barrel in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $101.17 per barrel. The higher price projection includes concerns about supply disruptions and additional sanctions as a result of Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine. Brent is expected to fall to $88.98 per barrel post-2022, whereas WTI will fall to $84.98 per barrel. The EIA emphasized, however, that the price projection is ‘very unpredictable’, as actual price outcomes will be determined by the severity of Russia’s sanctions, any new potential sanctions, and the impact of individual business actions. In 2020, during the COVID outbreak, the event suddenly draws Crude & Brent oil prices. The crude oil (WTI) starts falling from $65/barrel to $19/barrel. The continuous fall frightens investors all over the globe. But, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), who is also an entrepreneur & investor at that time publicly said on his YouTube video that crude will touch($90-$100) soon due to macroeconomic conditions which central banks created by putting interest rates at an all-time low. Ankit said in 2020, due to this petrol prices will touch Rs.100 first time in India. In 2022, he seems indeed right. Today petrol prices all over India almost hit Rs.100 due to an international price hike in Brent oil. Today also his video is still available on his YouTube platform which he created by the name of ‘Market Maestroo’. This video he released on Dec.25 2020. One can check it as a fact as well. He is one of the only Wealth Managers in the Globe who predicted a rise in Crude oil & only economist in India who predicted Rs100/litre of petrol. Apart from this, his many predictions in recent times come true which also become the centre of attraction for many investors. He also predicted inflation is coming & USA inflation may touch 10%. Today Feb 2022, USA inflation is sitting at 30 year high of 8%. After such successful predictions, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), now started gaining popularity & limelight. One of his famous quote in investing is “Investing is done with a calm mind, not to calm your mind WTI oil outlook: Oil hits $130 per barrel on fears that Russian energy products WTI bulls move in as US and EU move towards sanctioning Russia further. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) does little to cool down supply concerns. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday on persisting supply concerns as Russian energy sanctions are very much on the table following the Russian forces' civilian killings in north Ukraine. For a fresh high of the day, at $103.82. WTI spot is up by some 4.5% as White House's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, announced that the US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia. Sullivan said that they have concluded Russia has committed war crimes, Bucha offers further evidence to support that, pointing to a protracted war. '' Ukraine-Russia conflict may not be just a few more weeks, could be months.'' Ukraine’s top prosecutor has said 410 bodies had been found in towns recaptured from retreating Russian forces around Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes. The weekend media reported mass killings of civilians in the town of Bucha which had been under Russian occupation until recently. The reports led to an array of calls from within the European Union for the bloc to go further in punishing Moscow. Consequently, a fifth package of sanctions against Russia is being arranged with the new round of measures expected to be approved later this week. Meanwhile and despite the release of 180-million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an agreement last week from members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release some of their own strategic reserves, oil is firmer due to the persistence of geopolitical concerns. "The global oil market remains in deep deficit of likely 1.5 mb/d over the last 4 weeks, before the loss of Russian supply even started, with global inventories at their lowest levels in recent history on a demand-adjusted basis and with limited OPEC and shale elasticity in months to come. Demand destruction requires higher prices, yet this dynamic is being nullified by increased government interventions in cutting gasoline taxes," Goldman Sachs said in a report. ''Indeed, while the SPR release can quell near-term tightness concerns, it does not solve the longer-term issues in the crude market. Structural deficit conditions could still persist down the road as these reserves will need to be replenished at a time when global spare capacity and inventory levels will still be stretched,'' analysts at TD Securities explained. ''In this sense, the right tail in energy markets is set to remain structurally fat as depleted reserves would add to the existing risks of self-sanctioning, stretched spare capacity across OPEC+, constrained shale production, an uncertain Iran deal and OECD inventories at their lowest since the Arab Spring. We expect this vast array of supply risks to remain the driving force in the energy market.''
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by DaveBrascoFX
BCO AND WTI SHORT TARGET READ BELOWSurging Oil Prices Could Spark A Global Recession Federal Bank of Dallas economists warn that a global economic downturn may be unavoidable if a large of Russian energy exports remain off the market throughout the year. Billionaire investor Carl Icahn also warned that there could be a recession amid the surging inflation So far, the EU found sufficient support for an all-out oil & gas embargo against Russia. WTI IF 108;20BROKEN WECAN SEE107 AND SOON 98;87 AGAIN BCO SHORTOLDAT 121;95 AND 121,17 first target 114,78 2nd target 108,85 3rd target 102 The already month-long Russian war in Ukraine has upended analyst outlooks of the global economy this year. Forecasts quickly shifted from a robust post-COVID rebound to rising chances of a full-blown global recession due to spiking energy prices, broken supply chains, and tight global oil supplies. Economists, analysts, and famed investors say the odds of a recession have been rising, considering the runaway inflation, which the Fed and other central banks have already started to try to curb with interest rate hikes. Despite the fact that recession is not the base-case scenario of most economists, the odds of a downturn are growing, they say, especially if more Russian energy exports come off the market in the coming weeks and months. The European Union and its largest economy, Germany, have been reluctant so far to ban imports of Russian energy or impose sanctions on Russian oil and gas exports, considering that Europe depends on Russia for more than one-fourth of its oil supply and one-third of its natural gas supply. The sanctions are working, and Germany will end its dependence on Russian oil and gas as quickly as it is practically possible, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in the German Parliament on Wednesday. Still, an overnight unplugging from Russian energy would mean a deep recession across all of Europe, putting entire industries in jeopardy, and allowing hundreds of thousands of job losses, he added. The foreign ministers of the EU member states failed to come to an agreement about whether to punish Putin with an oil embargo earlier this week. In the worst-case scenario of the Russian war in Ukraine with severe, escalating disruption with moderate policy response, and in a situation in which oil and gas exports from Russia to Europe are shut down, Brent prices would jump to $150 per barrel, analysts at McKinsey & Company said last week. In this worst-case scenario, shaken confidence and continued high prices for oil would reduce spending by consumers and businesses in the United States, and a recession would ensue, McKinsey noted. “In the United States, the key issue will be how the Federal Reserve Board reacts to the impact of the spike in oil prices and to the jump in agricultural, mining, and mineral commodity prices (US natural-gas prices are largely independent of Europe),” the consultancy’s analysts wrote. Should a large part of Russia’s energy exports remain off the market throughout this year, a global economic downturn seems unavoidable, Lutz Kilian and Michael D. Plante, economists from the Research Department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, wrote in an analysis this week. The analysis also warned that this slowdown could be more protracted than the 1991 recession following the oil supply shock from Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. “Every recession in the past 50 years has been preceded by an oil price spike, and it is déjà vu all over again,” Chris Lafakis, Director at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a report last week. This week, billionaire investor Carl Icahn also warned that there could be a recession amid the surging inflation. “I think there very well could be a recession or even worse,” Icahn told CNBC on Tuesday. “I am negative as you can hear. Short term I don’t even predict,” he said. Soaring inflation and the high uncertainty about the global economy with the Russian war in Ukraine could threaten economic growth, Icahn said. “I really don’t know if they can engineer a soft landing,” Icahn said. “I think there is going to be a rough landing... Inflation is a terrible thing when it gets going,” the investor noted. The Beginning Of The End Of Globalization The global pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed have sparked a new debate on the future of globalization as we know it. In Q2 2020, at the dramatic start of the pandemic, global trade was down 18.5%, compared to the same period the previous year. “Rather than the cheapest, easiest and greenest sources, there’ll probably be more of a premium on the safest and surest.” There is an eternal debate among various experts as to when globalization actually started; whether it was with the Silk Road, the Vikings, Columbus's voyage, or even before then, with the earliest human migratory routes. Now, it’s no longer relevant when it started. Instead, the new question is whether Russian President Vladimir Putin will end it. Russia’s war on Ukraine and the Western sanctions that necessarily followed, could have a lasting impact on globalization, a process that regardless of when the first seeds were planted, really became entrenched a few decades ago. Globalization was under attack on some level prior to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Most significantly, the global pandemic let us all see very clearly the vulnerabilities, especially with supply chains and our dependence on their global nature. Now, everyone is desperately calling for “independence”, whether it is of energy or other resources. In Q2 2020, at the dramatic start of the pandemic, global trade was down 18.5%, compared to the same period the previous year. Since then, the global economy has started to recover, only to be hit again by a war on the European continent–a war that could shake the balance of power. Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, thinks we are now seeing the beginning of the end of globalization. In a letter to shareholders, Fink wrote that Russia's "decoupling from the global economy" following its assault on Ukraine has caused governments and companies to examine their reliance on other nations. "The Russian invasion of Ukraine has put an end to the globalization we have experienced over the last three decades," Fink wrote. For its part, BlackRock, which oversees more than $10 trillion, has already suspended the purchase of any Russian securities in its active or index portfolios. Oaktree Capital Management founder Howard Marks shares Fink’s opinion, even if his take is less dramatic. He is warning investors that countries are going to start a major push to return to localized sourcing. “Rather than the cheapest, easiest and greenest sources, there’ll probably be more of a premium on the safest and surest,” Marks said. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard seems something similar. The direct macroeconomic effects on the US economy from Russia's invasion are not that large, Bullard says, but “Russia's war will mean less globalization, more fragmentation around the world.”
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
1
Buying oil in the short termPeace, mercy and blessings of God It seems that the historical agreement of the black gold producing countries is beginning to take effect In the past two weeks, we had a purchase of oil, thank God, all goals were achieved with a total of 1126 points ----------------------------------------- Now as we see in the chart above, we have a positive Harmonic pattern on the weekly frame, with a very clear breach of the downtrend, which enhances buying opportunities in the short and medium term. Targets and stops are shown on the chart We ask God for success
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by mysqlerror
BUY BRENT CRUDE? SURELY YES!!!!Hard to even imagine that Brent Crude hit $149 back in 2008. Now standing at 22.32 surely this looks a good place to buy. At these low levels there's no historical support buy with RSI on the Monthly time frame at 26 and signs of a move north on mid time frames I'm in on this trade at 22.39 with a STOP under the low at 16.95 and a provisional target at WR1 Pivot at 30.67. Should we get anywhere near there the T.P. will be moved as once the BULLS get into this market we could go much higher particularly if DJT open up America as he likes to claim he's doing. Might still be a rocky ride ahead for Brent Crude but this looks a decent opportunity for a LONG trade.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by theforexportal
BCOUSD approaching support, potential bounce!BCOUSD is approaching our first support at 73.27 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 75.62 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension). Stochastic is also approaching support where we might see a corresponding bounce in price. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by FlowState