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Beanoil

Beanoil CBoT N16Beanoil: Price initially followed our preferred routing quite precisely but suffered a pull-back during the last two sessions that was deeper than we would have liked to see. Our bias with price target remains intact although a decisive move further down to 31.50 would be a conclusive sign to us that we should reconsider our short term bull bias. Our longer term view on beanoil is bearish but for now we still keep our eye on the 36 target by the end of May and we have not changed the chart.
CBOT:ZLN2016Long
by Remko
Beanoil Long PlayPrice has been following our preferred path quite nicely last week and tested the downside of the ascending price channel from where it made quite an impulsive bounce up during last Friday's session. Friday's candle was a strong one and had the characteristics of a 'Bullish Engulfing' candle which is a solid sign that price wants to reverse and go up from here. The candle was also a 'Double Key Reversal' candle with a lower low than the previous day but a higher close than the two previous candles which is a very solid bullish bode as well. As far as we are concerned the price is on the way to our target of around 36/37 by latest the end of May which is at the upper boundaries of the price channel and some 8-10 percent up from its current level.
CBOT:ZLN2016Long
by Remko
Beanoil almost ready for a longBeanoil: Price has been moving in a wide-ranged ascending channel from Sep/Oct15 onwards with higher highs and higher lows. Since about two weeks price started again a correction to the down side but still within the boundaries of the ascending price channel. The candle of last Friday was a perfectly shaped ´inverted Hammer´ which is a strong reversal signal and which indicates that a reversal of the price back up is imminent. Price could well trade a bit lower during the first 2 or 3 trading sessions of next week but we expect price to reverse back up soon. We favour a bit further decline to the 3250/3200 level during early next week after which we expect price to trade back up to the 3600 level during the remainder of May and possibly into June.
CBOT:ZLN2016
by Remko
1
CBoT beanoil short play set-upA renewed set-up on the beanoil chart after our last set up earlier this week did not materialize as the selling trigger lacked. Today we see price making a so-called 'bearish engulfing' which is a reliable reversal pattern. Price kept its divergence with it MACD and RSI: higher highs in price (compared to it last high at close on December 4 at 32.35) but not charting higher highs on its MACD and RSI. Since March 3 price has started to trade within a steep channel upwards which was broken only today and, if no rally occurs towards today's close, price will close below the lower boundary line of same ascending channel. It is worth entertaining a short play here at the close or tomorrow's opening but only provided that price closes at/below 33.45 and with a very tight stop at 34.25 basis intra-day.
CBOT:ZLK2016Short
by Remko
CBoT Beanoil possible short set up in the makingWe have a possible short set-up in the making here. The beanoil MAY16 chart is of 11am CDT so the session in Chicago has not ended yet. The candle could be a 'shooting star' in the making which, principally, is a bearish sign and it is a reliable bode that the end of the move up is imminent. More important, however, is that the chart is showing divergence between the development of price on one side and its RSI and MACD on the other side: price has made a new high yesterday whereas its RSI and MACD did not. This is a very strong sign that the market is overbought and needs correction. In addition comes the aforementioned 'shooting star' which adds to the reversal probability. Too early and too much of aggressive approach for this trader to enter a short play here and now already as we want to see a confirmation. We keep the gear in 'neutral' but will have a close look again during the session on Monday next. If and when we see a negative candle developing during Monday's session it would mean that an 'evening star' is in the making which is a reliable reversal pattern. This in combination with the divergence and the 'shooting star' legitimises a short play with a tight intra-day stop above the high of today.
CBOT:ZLK2016Short
by Remko