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Beans

10 year Bean Projection (potentially)10yr Corn outlook: Potential course of the Bean market for the next 10 years. Previous inflationary markets have caused for the multi year market structure to step up in price ranges. Before that range is found, Beans will need to mark a pivot high enough to ration some future demand. The low found after a major high is made, could mark an area for the future multi year market structure. The market should remain very sensitive for another few years. Sensitive to world demand and production misses across the globe. There are many climate cycles coming ahead that could add to potential Ag production shortages. **Not a prediction, something to watch**
CBOT:ZS1!
by mtb1980
Soybeans Ten Month Buy Signal The Soybean futures market is generating a buy signal based on the monthly time frame based on the "Time@Mode Methodology". Notice the 8 month sideways action around the green horizontal line in 2021 which set up what turned into a 7 month rally into June 2022. When "time expires" the market tends to form a new mode at that price level (within the range of the 8th month) or it returns to the mode previous to the trend. You can see there was a sharp move down in July 2021 but it didn't return to the old mode, which is constructive long term. The white and yellow projection lines are the previous two rallies added to the current "mode" at 1434'2. The green box is the range around the mode added to the mode to provide 1x and 2x's that range for a price projection potential. The 50% speed line is a reference line to indicate if the market is holding above the half-speed of the move from the lowest low to the highest high. You can see clearly that the 50% speed line held in that pullback in July 2021. This has been a long time building this mode and the bigger the mode, the bigger the rally. The risk is a move back under the mode, which is the December low. Wishing you all well. Happy Holidays and Happy New Years!! Tim 1:48PM EST 12/23/2022 1490 last $ZSK2023 Wishing you all the best
CBOT:ZSK2023Long
by timwest
1
Strong Dollar makes is tough on other marketsUS Dollar – Weekly continuous: Surpassed the Primary recover target at 102.25 and making highs not seen for 20 years. My opinion. Cash commodities can struggle to keep upward momentum when US Dollar is strong. The world is experiencing a financial crisis it has not seen for several decades. The 07/08 recession Primarily hit the US with the Housing market bust and Dollars fled the US to other stronger currencies/assets. US Ag commodities were very volatile in the period but mostly strong with a weak dollar. If EU and Asian markets remain weak, safe haven assets like the Dollar could remain elevated to extremely high…Yet to be determined. Open interest is/has been low in the commodity space, and we recently witnessed what a liquidity drain out of our markets from the big money can do. Major swings up and down to be expected in the nearby future.
ICEUS:DX1!
by mtb1980
Soybeans Trade Lower After a Bullish USDA ReportSoybeans Technicals (August): Yesterday’s USDA report put some pep in soybeans step right out of the gat, launching prices all they way up to technical resistance near $16.00. This is obviously a psychologically significant level, but it also represents the 50 and 100 day moving average, along with the breakdown point from June 22nd. Despite the friendly report, the market couldn’t sustain the strength which led to long liquidation at the end of month/quarter. That failure has led to weakness in the overnight and early morning session. The market has retreaded back near our pivot pocket overnight, we’ve had that labeled in previous reports as 1533 ½. The Bulls need to defend this to prevent a further decline and retest of the June 24th lows, 1494 ¾. Below that is the 200-day moving average, 1456. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1456** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Rally Back to the Scene of the CrimeSoybeans Fundamentals: All eyes will be on tomorrow’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0 in March. The average estimate for US soybean ending stocks as of June 1 is .954 billion bushels. Last year at this time we were at .769. Technicals (August): The market has rallied back to our resistance pocket, which we labeled in yesterday’s report as 1560-1566. This pocket represents the secondary breakdown point from last week. If the Bulls can chew through this pocket, we could see a further extension take us into the mid 1590’2, which is the original scene of the crime, aka breakdown point from June 22nd. This would also be near a psychologically significant level, 1600. If these levels can hold, they would mark lower highs. We would be looking at bearish positioning at these levels if they can hold. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish Resistance: 1560-1566***, 1592-1597*** Pivot: 1533 ½ Support: 1494 ¾-1500****, 1451* Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSQ2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybeans Under Pressure to Start the WeekFundamentals: Soybeans are under pressure to start the week, along with many other commodities and markets as last week's outside market turmoil has poured into this week's trade. This afternoon's Crop Progress report is expected to show the U.S. soybean crop near 90% planted. Good/Excellent conditions are expected to come in near 70%. Last year at this time the crop was rated 62% G/E. Commitments of Traders Update: Friday’s CoT report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 6,505 futures/options contracts, through June 7th. This shrinks their net long position to 153,654. Broken down, that is 168,458 longs VS 14,804 shorts. Technicals (July): July soybeans were weaker to round out the week, which gave back just a portion of the sharp rally that we saw on Thursday. 1750 is our pivot pocket, a close above or below here could set the tone for the next 25 cent move. On the resistance side, 1775-1784 is the objective for Bulls. A breakout above there puts the market back in uncharted territory which makes in extremely difficult to find high conviction resistance levels. $16.00 would be the next psychological barrier. On the support side of things, 1720-1728 is the pocket the Bulls want to defend. This pocket was previously resistance and will now act as support. If that gives way, it could spark long liquidation back below $17.00. Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral Resistance: 1757 ½-1760**, 1775 ½-1784** Pivot: 1750 Support: 1720-1728***, 1690**, 1673-1679 ½*** Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CBOT:ZSN2022
by OliverSloup_BlueLine
Soybean Futures (ZS1!), H1 Potential for Bearish ContinuationType : Bearish Continuation Resistance: 1704'6 Pivot: 1687'6 Support : 1659'2 Preferred case: With price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we see a potential bearish continuation from our pivot level of 1687'6 which is in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance towards our 1st support level of 1659'2 which is in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance level of 1704'6 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal pullback resistance. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybeans Future (ZS1!), H1 Bearish DropType: Bearish Drop Resistance : 1679'4 Pivot: 1667'4 Support : 1623'6 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the ichimoku resistance and the descending trend line, we see the potential for bearish drop from our Pivot level at 1667'4 in line 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st support level at 1623'6 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternative scenario: If price breaks out, it can potentially move towards our 1st resistance level at 1679'4 which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish bounce!Type : Bullish bounce Resistance : 1687'6 Pivot: 1660'4 Support : 1646'6 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastics support, we have a bullish bias that price will rise from our pivot at 660'4 in line with the 100% Fibonacci projection to our 1st resistance at 1687'6 in line with the horizontal pullback resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1646'6 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish drop!Type : Bearish drop Resistance : 1759'2 Pivot: 1728'4 Support : 1637'4 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastics resistance , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1637'4 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 100% Fibonacci projection from our pivot at 1728'4 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1759'2 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 127% Fibonacci extension Fundamentals: No major news
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bearish drop!Type : Bearish drop Resistance : 1759'2 Pivot: 1728'4 Support : 1637'4 Preferred case: With price expected to reverse off the stochastics resistance , we have a bearish bias that price will drop to our 1st support at 1637'4 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 100% Fibonacci projection from our pivot at 1728'4 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st resistance at 1759'2 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 127% Fibonacci extension Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Short
by Genesiv
Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!Type : Bullish bounce Resistance : 1728'6 Pivot: 1637'2 Support : 1583'2 Preferred case: With price expected to bounce off the horizontal swing low support and the support of the stochastics indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1728'6 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement from our pivot at 1637'2 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1583'2 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybean futures (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!Type : Bullish bounce Resistance : 1757'4 Pivot: 1658'6 Support : 1583'2 Preferred case: With price moving above our ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to our 1st resistance at 1757'4 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance from our pivot at 1658'6 in line with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price may break our pivot structure and head for 1st support at 1583'2 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
SOYBEAN FUTURES (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!Type : Bullish bounce Resistance : 1751'4 Pivot: 1639'6 Support :1581'4 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1694'2 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1757'4 in line with horizontal swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 1646'4 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
SOYBEAN FUTURES (ZS1!), H4 Potential for Bullish Bounce!Type : Bullish bounce Resistance : 1751'64 Pivot: 1638'6 Support : 1581'4 Preferred case: With price moving above the ichimoku cloud, we see the potential for a bounce from our Pivot at 1639'6 in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement towards our 1st resistance at 1751'4 in line with horizontal swing high resistance. Alternative scenario: Alternatively, price can potentially dip towards our 1st support at 1581'4 which is a graphical swing low and also in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Fundamentals: No major news.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
1
Soy Beans Futures (ZS1!), H4 Bullish Continuation.On the H4 chart, price is near our pivot of 1651'2 in line with horizontal overlap support and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Price can potentially rise to our 1st resistance level at 1739'0 in line with the horizontal swing high resistance. Alternatively, price may head to our 1st support at 1582'6 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Our bullsh bias is supported by how price is moving above the ichimoku cloud. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by Genesiv
Soybeans: Close to a buy signal once again...The last time we had a perfect storm situation to buy grains, we had a monster rally in both corn and beans. We are now in a similar situation, with the recent surge in Nat Gas affecting fertilizer prices. Weather in Brazil is problematic and China is struggling to produce grains locally...We are once again nearing a situation where reward to risk for buying into grains is tremendous. I'm long Corn futures already for a couple days and waiting for the daily chart to trigger a technical buy signal in Nov Beans to go long as well. The last weekly signal expires by next week, as a failure, price hit really oversold levels and reached monthly support (see green shaded area). Implications are a retest of the weekly down trend mode (as shown by the arrow on chart), at least, which can then evolve into a new weekly uptrend, once the daily trend turns up. And potentially trigger a new monthly signal similar to the one we had before...This is an interesting juncture to enter long term positions in grain futures. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
CBOT:ZS1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Soybeans Calling BIG down day today for beans. Looks like a weak Argentina crop cant compete with a +500bu carryout in the US. And talk of farmers increasing acres... How is the thought of that going to help things. This tariff talk... Not going to be friendly in regards to US exports to china. And about those technicals... I mean come on. This market was OVERBOUGHT. end of story. I think this one is a near term short play. Momentum is headed down. Get out of the way and catch a ride down the hill. New support will be found or it will head all the way down to the lower parallel. I mean yes, large specs are still long overall, and this thing could get choppy with another super dry forecast over the weekend. Buuuuut too many bearish indicators in this one telling us its due for a little beating. How much lower could we go? That is the magic question my friend. But for now, sure feels like some short term profit potential is calling. We will see how this plays out...
CBOT:ZSK2018Short
by Mr_BidAsk