Bear-market
Bitcoin Bullish or BearishMany people want to trade BTC, claiming that it's headed to 10k or that a relief rally to 30k will come. There is no edge, no implied strength, and even not that much weakness, a trade in either direction with a stop loss will probably get wiped out.
However, if one was to look at the chart there are a few things that are evident:
- Bullish divergence developing after a failed breakdown and bearish divergence that played out in a very weak manner.
- Three consecutive marginal lower lows holding support again implying accumulation and seller exhaustion.
- And lastly the breaking of a downward-sloping trendline that has acted as resistance on 5 different occasions.
During a normal market, I would be longing and would be extremely bullish. However, this is not a normal market and during a bear market, the chances of this playing out are extremely low. The next few days will be to see if the trendline break is key.
Stay posted as I WILL UPDATE AND TAKE A TRADE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Possible S&P500 bottom, and wealth redistributionTechnical:
S&p500 holding critical support (yellow ema), a possible bottom will be 503EMA or circle marked in the chart, if Williams AO does its crossover, prepare for vacation.
Fundamental:
Rate hikes are the least of the worries, everything seems bearish. The only hints of hope are the US unemployment rate below 4% (somehow low), and the Ukraine war. NATO and US were in decadence before it and Putin fell in their trap invading an useless country geopolitically speaking. Us is redefining it's status quo by making another war, but this time they're not fighting it directly, will be that cheaper or expensive?
Opinion:
Every TV clown educator has been posting their bearish bias and i won't be the exception, everybody is right when markets are trending (bullish or bearish), the only thing they don't know it's where the bottom (or top) is, they will keep selling useless trading signals, but the thing is there won't be business anymore, the golden era of scamming people is over, at least for now and for the next years, even brokers (market makers) are facing financial issues and we'll see bankruptcy so it would be a great idea cashing out your assets if you don't want to lose it all. It will be a great depression tier freefall, a chud's and a poljack wet dream. But it won't be like that neither. The water they're storing will end mouldy, the ammo dusty they will use just one bullet ;) and the shinny rocks seized or buried somewhere in the dirt. An anarchist dystopia is unrealistic in a country like the US or any west one, worse things happens in third world countries on a daily basis and even so, people manage it to live their lives almost on a normal way but they're too dumb to realize, they are so used to their consumist way of living they think the world ends when they won't find their favorite snacks on a Wal-Mart or any supermarket. Will be a hard time for US citizens, but what's surprising me is how people are realizing now we are in a recession we were already years ago, the signals were pretty obvious: inflation, expensive housing, lots of homeless in top tier cities, r****ds and illiterate people making millions (WSB, Crypto, meme stocks). Will be a healthy recession and a healthy wealth redistribution to the smart hands.
Adam and Eve pattern, target 118, resistance also there. Falling wedge above support, now about to reach resistance of 118, and also target of Adam Eve pattern. I expect a descending triangle after that.
This coincides with 10 year stock reset and 4 year crypto cycle. Time frame is a little bit too long, my excuses for that. I think from December 2022 till May 2023 we might see DXY finally going down. 2024 and 2025 is bull
BTC 200 week MA at 24k when adjusted for monetary inflationWhen BTC is divided by the m2 money supply, we can see that current "REAL BTC" prices are not as far off from the 200 and 300 week MAs as it appears on the standard BTC/USD chart.
The drastic increase in the money supply has made a significant difference in how far off REAL BTC prices are from the 200 and the 300 week MAs as compared to previous market cycle bottoms.
This suggests that the true market cycle bottom may be higher than expected when basing it off the 200 and 300 weeks MAs. With the REAL 200 week MA currently at 24k USD, and the REAL 300 week MA currently at 18k USD. As opposed to 22k and and 16k respectively on the standard BTC/USD chart.
Yesterday's Analysis Still HoldsThe analysis from yesterday remains important and valid. It can be found here:
It appears Minor wave 1 most likely finished today and we are in the midst of Minor wave 2. It is possible the low prior to today's close finished Minute wave B. This means Minute wave C and Minor wave 2 will likely finish tomorrow. We will likely move up during the morning and take out the high from today.
Here is a rough take on our waves so far:
Bottom line is we are still in Intermediate wave 3. The actual bottom to Intermediate wave 3 has plenty more days to make it below 3900. The concept from yesterday that waves ending in C33 drop greater than 150% and conservatively land around 200% the movement of wave 1 is much easier to attain now.
This chart is the current plan. I will update it as more waves complete.
USDT DOMINANCE 4HOURS UPDATEWelcome to this quick update, everyone.
If you are reading my updates for the first time do follow me to get more complex charts in a very simplified way.
I also post altcoin setups on Spot, Margin, and Futures .
I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart.
As we can see in the chart USDT DOMINANCE brake out bullish flag pattern and retesting it now I expecting it to come around 5.55%.
What's your thought on this?
Do hit the like button if you like this update and share your views in the comment section.
massive head and shoulder i think the true bottom will be between 15k-24k with wicks. I can be very wrong but that looks like a potentially giant head and shoulders with the head being finished right now. forgive my drawing it sucks but I do think the bottom of the drop will be around the end of May beginning of July. I also think we will fall to the bottom of the largest parallel trend line with in 2-4 24hr candle.
Right Shoulder Up-to-Date Short Position 2Hi traders. I'm up-to-dating the short-term scenario for this expected HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS' correction. The price action Is clearly confirms the supply zone for this trend with a strong reversal pattern, according to the analysis from yesterday. The fibonacci retracement 78.6-68.1% range is a good area to short. Good trading!☕
Bearish Gartley Pattern XABCD Crab (D)Hi traders. A view on the bearish Crab XABCD Gartley Pattern which appoints a major reversal trend can help us to define a SUPPLY / DEMAND swing for shorts above 50% Fibonacci Retracement in this initial bear market till 38k DEMAND to long upward by a possible double bottom. The market will define the trend more clearly later.
Possible BTC PathHello guys. This is my first idea. Ive been keeping this to my self for a while and it's been playing out so I taught to share.
If BTC breaks below that triangle , which has a support around $30,000 we are likely going to $26k
Once we loose that $22,496
I lean more on the bearish part of the whole market trend as we are somewhere around complacency on the market chat cycle.
I'm being cautious as this was how 2017 /2018 bear started and everybody taught they were buying cheap..
SPY ShortG9er, Double Top, Rising Wedge, Bear Market Rally, Fib 61.8, Super Guppy Trend...
Enjoy......
Currently in SPY puts for June / Sep
Targeting 264
246
217
180
Possible that we ignore all TA and continue to hold levels regardless of this outlook. Just looking at this as a possible short scenario. Good luck to all