Beardiv
dis blow off top? | daily bear div presentdisney with a potential blow off top here. last 3 times we've tapped overbought, it's led to significant sell offs.
been in over bought territory since the 23rd. now have a second daily bear div present. expecting a pull back to daily rsi eq. $100 seems reasonable, but long trigger should be the rsi eq tap.
$ONE local top might be in.The 1D chart had hit the fib level again. The pump towards this fib level was not backed by more strength hence the (probable) bearish divergent on both RSI and OBV are likely to happen. This might be the local top for $ONE for now. I am expecting a correction to around $0.266 at the very least but it can go lower too to around $0.225. Of course, it could be invalidated and pumped hard more but the chance for this to happen is smaller. At this point, I better wait for a better level to buy the spot and look for a good entry to short with tight stop loss.
hefty chonk go nuh-night 😴summary:
1.) Bear div between PA and DMI
2.) VA on VPVR an POC is downside
3.) Monthly ATR extended to the upside
AMD has provided a fat run on the monthly, from L @ 99.85 to H @ 121.56 AMD is at roughly 117% of 1M atr all to the upside.
dmi shows waning buy pressure, visible on 1d and 4h.
pa started dipping below fast moving 1d hma on the 18th and despite hh's on pa, di+ on 4h is curling down.
pa now below both hma's on 4h with a pending bear x on both dmi and hma, next cycles on 1d also bearish.
watch for passive range downside between s1 / s2 with targets 117.68 / 116.05 / 113.82
break below of 114 on 1d opens range to s3 with targets 108.25 / 106.25
VA on net vol since last earnings, between roughly 111 and 103, with POC @ 106
200 hma @ 111 on 1d and 108 on 4h.
all targets noted are above POC on net vol since last earnings
did i say crash? no i didnt.
dip is a gift.
relax.
appreciate the risk.
S&P 500 Bearish DivergencesThe daily chart of the S&P500 shows price in an uptrend channel while currently trending in the lower half of the channel which is the weaker half of the channel where price is most susceptible to declines. For now the price candles remain green on the daily chart which indicate bullish momentum behind price. Most obvious on the chart right now is a bearish divergence between price and the lower indicators. A bearish divergence occurs when price makes a series of higher highs, while the indicators below make a series of lower high, thus creating a divergence in the trendline drawn across their respective peaks.
The Price Percent Oscillator(PPO) shows a steady decline in price momentum with the green line PPO line beginning to cross below the purple signal line. This indicates bearish momentum in the short-term, but since both lines are still trending above the 0 level the intermediate-term momentum is considered to be bullish. The current reading could be interpreted as a bullish momentum pullback.
The Average Directional Index(ADX) shows the green directional line above the purple directional line which indicates a bullish trend in price, but the purple line is close to crossing back above the green line which would indicate a shift to a bearish trend in price. The green directional line is in a slow decline as price has moved higher indicating weakness in the uptrend for price. The histogram in the background is dark green and trending flat meaning that there is no force or strength behind the dominant trend.
The Traders Dynamic Index(TDI) shows the multi-color RSI line declining, but still above the 50 level which is the midpoint of the total RSI range. Since most of the RSI trading range has been between the 40-80 levels the background is colored green to indicate bullish momentum in the intermediate-term. We still want to watch that 50 level though as a breach below it could mark the beginning of a strong momentum pullback in price. The Bollinger Bands of the RSI are narrow and trending sideways indicating that volatility has leveled out and that a large move in either direction is likely. The TDI is also showing a bearish divergence from price above just as the other indicators are.
Overall, the S&P500 remains bullish on the daily chart with caution warranted due to the bearish divergences between price and the lower indicators. Current stop-loss orders for trend traders should be placed just below local lows made in September and October of 2020 near the $3230 level.
SPX Hanging ManA hanging man is a type of bearish reversal pattern, made up of just one candle, found in an uptrend of price charts of financial assets. It has a long lower wick and a short body at the top of the candlestick with little or no upper wick. In order for a candle to be a valid hanging man most traders say the lower wick must be two times greater than the size of the body portion of the candle, and the body of the candle must be at the upper end of the trading range.
Along with a hanging man, SPX has a bearish divergence between price and the PPO indicator(orange arrows) with price making new highs while the PPO moves lower.
SPX failed to move lower last week as expected on coronavirus fears, was looking for a -5% decline and only saw -2% before price ripped higher. I still feel that the full effects of the coronavirus have yet to be priced in to markets, and that traders are underestimating the chain reaction that can occur globally with the production slowdown in China. If traders are expecting the Federal Reserve to save the day with lower rates and more liquidity injections I think they'll have to give the Fed a reason to do so i.e. start panicking and send equities lower.
I'm still expecting a decent pullback of -5% or more so the short-term view remains bearish, especially now that this novel coronavirus has upped its game and passed SARS in deaths. Coronavirus just did in 29 days what it took SARS 9 months to do.
Third Time's a Charm - Divergence StudyA quick study composed to illustrate the multiple levels of divergence Ethereum has had since November of last year.
Based on this study, short term trend changes typically took place at the second level of divergence on the Relative Momentum Range Indicator . The only other acceptation for this, was the reversal from the top this last January. At that time, was so much upward momentum in the market that it took until the third signal of divergence to confirm a trend change.
Some of you will say that this happens all the time, which is true. However this typically occurs on lower timeframes. Typically the higher the timeframe, the higher the chance of a divergence signal to lead into a confirmation.
Looking at where we are now, we once again have a potential third attempt of bullish divergence forming on the daily chart.
By no means is this a signal to buy.. The crpyto market as a whole is going through an extremely bearish cycle at the moment.
However, looking closer at the chart you will see that we have potential trendline support around $420. I believe that if we hit this, the divergence line will still be in tack and we could see a potential bounce.
For those of you that follow me, you likely notice that this still follows my ETH Fractal idea. I want to note that this fractal still remains a possibility until a lower lower is formed. Some may say it is foolish to remain optimistic in such a bearish trend. You very well may be right.
I hope you all found this analysis a bit interesting and I wish you all the best of luck!
ETH Fractal Analysis:
PEP Sell Set-UpWe were watching PEP a few days ago when we had a bear div on the daily during a weekly downtrend. Didn't take a short at the bear div because was concerned about R:R and where to take a short.
At yesterday's daily close, the pot sweetened for a PEP short as we moved up without invalidating the bear div and closed with a long upward wick (but green).
There's two ways to set this stop: Either set it very tight and damage your win rate, or set it loose and risk a larger % loss. It's not an easy choice but it has to be made so I chose the tight stop.
Sell your CMG, risk against higher high on weeklyCMG: we still in downtrend on weekly. 3 part bull div on daily is probably related to weekly trying to make a higher high (it hasnt yet). This could be a sell opportunity with stop if we break higher high. The target would be the gap fill and weekly volume profile node. Because its a short, on a daily-weekly timescale, and the r:r isnt great, this is not a perfect trade.
Bitcoin Short Entry on the Fully Bearish 1D Ichimoku Cloud BTCDaily Ichimoku cloud has been fully bearish for a while now. We just got rejected by Kijun resistance, also a hidden bearish divergence has formed. I am long term bullish, but will have a short open for the next few days, likely.
Note: A hidden bull divergence formed at 6500 before we ran up to 9k.