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Bearish Patterns

23/12/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $108,403.98 Last weeks low: $92,261.97 Midpoint: $100,332.98 Last week we saw a swing fail pattern (SFP) of the week previous' high. Ever since then it's been a steady sell off throughout the week, mostly thanks to JPows FOMC statements despite a 25bps cut as forecast. BTC is now battling the 4H 200 EMA for the first time since the US election, a much needed pullback or the start of a further sell-off? Going into the holidays we should expect a lower volume as whales take some time off, retail will remain as crypto is shilled to family members over Christmas dinner so the market will continue to be interesting. The 4H 200 EMA is a key battleground, I would have hoped to see a better reaction off the moving average initially but maybe this is bad timing due to the holidays and lower volume, or the reluctance to open new trades while markets are shut etc. This week is obviously quiet in terms of data releases, there are various token unlocks ENA, IMX, FET and burns for some key altcoins such as ISP & BONK. I think the general consensus is that normal service will resume in January once everything opens back up. So for this week it's probably better to set alerts for key areas you want to get involved in, planning for when volume returns to the markets and when Trump takes office too. Merry Christmas to all and good luck!
by ProR35
theta midterm sell"🌟 Welcome to Golden Candle! 🌟 We're a team of 📈 passionate traders 📉 who love sharing our 🔍 technical analysis insights 🔎 with the TradingView community. 🌎 Our goal is to provide 💡 valuable perspectives 💡 on market trends and patterns, but 🚫 please note that our analyses are not intended as buy or sell recommendations. 🚫 Instead, they reflect our own 💭 personal attitudes and thoughts. 💭 Follow along and 📚 learn 📚 from our analyses! 📊💡"
Short
by Golden_candle
NAS100USD Will Go Lower! Short! Here is our detailed technical review for NAS100USD. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The price is testing a key resistance 21,471.9. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 20,314.7 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SignalProvider
1
Has BITCOIN reached its maximum and is a bear market coming?To make a prediction about Bitcoin’s next rally based on historical patterns, we should first examine the overall trends and how these increases and decreases have evolved in percentage terms. Data observations: 337,000% increase -> 93% decrease Massive increase, followed by a steep correction. 61,000% increase -> 86% decrease Significant increase, but smaller than the first, and the decline was still close in percentage terms. 11,000% increase -> 84% decrease Smaller increase, the decline remains large, but slightly milder. 2,000% increase -> 77% decrease Significantly smaller increase compared to previous cycles, and the decline continued to moderate. Observing a descending pattern: The increases seem to be getting smaller and smaller with each cycle, and the decreases also tend to be less severe. This shows diminishing returns on increases and a reduction in market volatility. Estimate for the next increase: Given this pattern, the next percentage increase could be significantly smaller than the last one (2,000%). If we apply a progressive reduction coefficient, as was the case in previous cycles, the increase could be around: ~300%-500%. This would mean a maximum increase of 5x from the low of the last cycle, and currently we have an increase of over 600%, that is, 6x. Is this ATH in this bull market? To estimate the duration of the next Bitcoin uptrend, we can analyze how the duration of these uptrend cycles has evolved over time: Historical data: 240 days 730 days 850 days 1050 days Notes: The increase in duration between cycles is not uniform, but follows a general trend of extending duration. The duration increase intervals were: From 240 -> 730: +490 days From 730 -> 850: +120 days From 850 -> 1050: +200 days Analysis: The duration extension appears to be accelerating moderately, with an irregular but generally increasing trend. If this pattern continues, the next cycle could add between 200 and 300 days to the previous duration (1050 days). Estimate: The duration of the next cycle could be: ~1250-1350 days. This estimate corresponds to a natural extension of Bitcoin cycles, reflecting wider adoption and lower volatility as the market becomes more mature.
CRYPTO:BTCUSD
by Smaryo3001
4
AUDCHF Is Going Down! Sell! Please, check our technical outlook for AUDCHF. Time Frame: 2h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 0.558. Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 0.553 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
Short
by SignalProvider
2
ETH over the last year and now todayI wanted to zoom out of the chart that I provided yesterday identifying this potential for buying the dip. We did break down through bottom of ascending channel for just a fast wick but it likely indicates we are breaking out of this ascension. As you see there is a lot of potential for a sideways channel here at the top of the larger (slightly descending) sideways channel, here we could consolidate in the top third of the channel and then build up the courage to try to break out of top of this year long channel again, or break down and potentially trace all the way back to bottom of channel which as you see is as low as $2200. If we break that $3500 support, I will become short term bearish. Market has been strong though so good chance we maintain top of channel and try to break out again in the near future. IMO daily candle charts are the most important and reliable charts. I do like 4 hour candles as they are more granular for seeing trends and are pretty close to as reliable and I often look at 1 hour candles for a pulse on the now but generally speaking, the shorter candle you use, the less you can rely on it. Lets take a look at the break down of the daily candle. --------------------------------------------------------------- # ETH/USD Analysis – Daily Chart 📊 ## Structure and Price Action: **Ascending Channel with Breakdown Risks** ETH/USD is currently trading within a **parallel ascending channel**, with price oscillating between its upper and lower bounds (green lines). Recently, the price sharply rejected at **$4,100** and is now testing the **lower trendline support** near **$3,500**. **Bearish Rejection Near Key Resistance** Sellers emerged strongly at the **$4,100 Bearish Order Block (OB)**, leading to a steep reversal. This highlights a significant supply zone at this level. **Approaching Key Demand Zone** The price is nearing **Bullish Order Blocks (OB)** around **$3,500–$3,600** (green zones), where buyers have defended historically. This is a critical support area within the larger channel. --- ## Support and Resistance: **Immediate Resistance** - **$3,600–$3,700**: Overhead resistance zone, aligned with EMA 20 and mid-channel range. - **$4,100**: Major supply zone, previously rejected at this level. **Key Support Levels** - **$3,500**: Current demand area reinforced by a key trend line - **$2,800–$3,000**: Next structural support if breakdown occurs. --- ## Indicators **EMAs (20/50/100/200):** - The price has dropped below **EMA 20 ($3,800)** and **EMA 50 ($3,750)**, indicating short-term bearish momentum. - **EMA 100 ($3,610)** is providing immediate dynamic support. - **EMA 200 ($3,380)** remains a critical long-term support level. **Parabolic SAR** - SAR dots are below the candles indicating an up wave in progress but it seems muted. **Volume** - Recent sell-off saw a **volume surge**, confirming active participation in the pullback. **Stochastic RSI** - Currently **oversold** (9.30/26.79), favoring a short-term bounce from this zone. **Money Flow Index (MFI)** - MFI is sitting at **51.26**, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions but showing signs of selling pressure easing. --- ## Pattern Analysis: **Ascending Channel Breakdown Risk** ETH/USD is testing the **lower channel boundary ($3,500)**. A breakdown below this level could invalidate the top of channel, leading to bearish momentum targeting lower support levels. --- ## Probabilistic Outlook **Bullish Scenario (Primary Case):** If buyers defend the **$3,500–$3,600** zone with rising volume: - **First Target**: $3,800–$3,850 (EMA 20 and mid-channel resistance). - **Second Target**: $4,000–$4,100 (upper channel resistance). **Bearish Scenario (Alternate Case):** If the price closes below **$3,500**: - **First Target**: $3,200 (next structural support). - **Second Target**: $3,000–$2,800 (psychological level and major demand zone). --- ## Key Signals to Watch: 1. **$3,500 Support**: Holding or breaking this level will decide the next move. 2. **Volume Confirmation**: Rising volume on bounce or breakdown strengthens directional bias. 3. **Stochastic RSI Oversold Levels**: Signals a possible bounce unless selling pressure increases. --- ## Order Book Update: Order books continue to look dirty but with potential for recovery. Both asks and bids tracking a downward trend, asks is staging a potential ascending channel though many times asks have lost a bit more than bids on pullback, indicating negative trader sentiment or fear in the market, it is in a position to change course over the next days but until it does, books are under pressure. --- ## Conclusion: ETH/USD is at a **critical inflection point**, testing the lower trendline of the ascending channel converting to a sideways channel to consolidate before breaking out or breaking down. Bulls need to defend **$3,500** to sustain the medium term bullish structure. A successful defense targets **$3,800–$4,100**, with anything higher than $4100 starting a new breakout and while failure to maintain $3500 opens the path toward **$2,800** or lower. 🔍 **Monitor volume, key support levels, and stochastic momentum for confirmation.** 🚨
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by EncryptShawn
Reason to worry on Alts?With Bitcoins huge institutional backing seeing it far surpass $100k and reaching a new high of $108k, it's easy to say that the biggest cryptos future looks bright, but what of altcoins? Looking at the TOTAL3 chart there are a few key points I'd like to highlight, some positive and some negative: 4H 200 EMA - This moving average is so important for the short/mid term bias. In a bear market we very rarely see trading above the 4H 200 EMA and vice versa in a bullmarket. Currently TOTAL3 is retesting the MA as support, with first tap wicking below and then a move back above, this is positive so far showing that buyers are willing to step in at this level. Bullish. Bearish structure forming? - At its core, trading is simple. You buy low and sell high, now we all know there is more to it than that but the basics are still the most important. The trend is your friend, so lets analyse the trend. Clear Higher high and Higher lows ever since the US election result, bullish structure/trend. However, we recently got our first Lower high since then and now the question is will we get a Lower low to flip the structure bearish? So far that is not the case ass the 4H 200 EMA swooped in to save the day but if price were to dip below the Daily support we'd have a trend flip on the 4H. Since that is an IF, lets see what is happening now, a tightening of the highs and lows would equal an accumulation phase and in this instance an accumulation phase after a strong rally is a setup for the next leg which is bullish. Just got to keep an eye on that structure for now. The formation of a downtrend - This ties into the structure point, like how we saw 8 months of "chop" on BTC which in reality was a downtrend after a strong rally, this chart pattern is looking similar to 4H TOTAL3 we see now. If we see a new LL at the downtrend support level I will switch to trading TOTAL3 as a range until proven otherwise.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3
by ProR35